Wednesday, September 30
Game by game
Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.
MLB · 5–3 game calls
Full MLB record →Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →
Not in this record, but still graded below: 4 calls paused on the site or not shown before the game.
PHI @ ATL
Final · PHI 4 – 3 ATLOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 28–11 →Call Pick Outcome Winner PHI (away) Win Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick UNDER 7 Push Run line (simulated ±1.5) ATL +1.5 Win CWS @ HOU
Final · CWS 7 – 3 HOUOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 15–22 · 2 void →Call Pick Outcome Winner HOU (home) Loss Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 7.5 Win Run line (simulated ±1.5) CWS +1.5 Win BOS @ NYY
Final · BOS 2 – 9 NYYOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 24–14 →Call Pick Outcome Winner NYY (home) Win Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 6.5 Win Run line (simulated ±1.5) BOS +1.5 Loss CHC @ SD
Final · CHC 1 – 4 SDOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 17–23 →Call Pick Outcome Winner SD (home) Win Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 7 Loss Run line (simulated ±1.5) CHC +1.5 Loss
Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff
Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.
No qualifying board was frozen for Wednesday, September 30.
- MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
- Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
- UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.
Product cards settled this day
Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.
Bank Builder · lane A
LostLeg Official Grade Boston Red Sox +1.5 · Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees 2-9 Lost Houston Astros to win · Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros 7-3 Lost Bank Builder · lane B
WonLeg Official Grade San Diego Padres to win · Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres 1-4 Won Philadelphia Phillies to win · Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves 4-3 Won Moonshot · lane A
No card placedNo card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Moonshot · lane B
WonLeg Official Grade Chicago White Sox +1.5 · Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros 7-3 Won New York Yankees -1.5 · Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees 2-9 Won
Suggested Parlays published this day
The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.
Low Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Medium Risk
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits, Hits + Runs + RBIs) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
High Risk
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits, Hits + Runs + RBIs) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
Longshot
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits, Hits + Runs + RBIs) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks
Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.
Biggest hits
- MLBChase MeidrothOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+29.8pp edgeactual 6
- MLBDrake BaldwinOver 1.5 Total Bases+21.1pp edgeactual 3
- MLBRyan McMahonOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+21.0pp edgeactual 2
- MLBGeorge Lombard Jr.Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+20.3pp edgeactual 3
- MLBChase MeidrothOver 0.5 Hits+20.2pp edgeactual 2
Biggest misses
- MLBKevin GausmanOver 4.5 Strikeouts+26.1pp edgeactual 1
- MLBMunetaka MurakamiOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+22.9pp edgeactual 0
- MLBIsaac ParedesOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+18.9pp edgeactual 0
- MLBAlex BregmanOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+18.3pp edgeactual 0
- MLBYordan AlvarezOver 1.5 Total Bases+17.2pp edgeactual 0
MLB settled games · projection vs actual
PHI @ ATL28–1139 dec71.8%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 | 4.67 | 6 | -2.4% | Low | Win |
| Drake Baldwin | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.32 | 2 | +10.3% | High | Win |
| Trea Turner | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.05 | 1 | +2.8% | Medium | Win |
| Michael Harris II | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.21 | 1 | +6.4% | High | Win |
| Alec Bohm | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.86 | 2 | -3.1% | Low | Win |
| Ozzie Albies | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.65 | 1 | +3.8% | Medium | Loss |
| Bryce Harper | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.98 | 2 | +2.0% | Low | Win |
| Matt Olson | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.98 | 1 | +5.8% | High | Win |
| Bryson Stott | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.09 | 1 | +10.1% | High | Win |
| Kyle Schwarber | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.68 | 1 | -1.6% | Low | Loss |
| Edmundo Sosa | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 1 | -1.0% | Low | Win |
| Austin Riley | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.69 | 1 | -1.9% | Low | Win |
| J.T. Realmuto | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.40 | 1 | +7.1% | High | Loss |
| Justin Crawford | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 1 | +3.9% | Medium | Win |
| Brandon Marsh | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.69 | 1 | +3.5% | Medium | Win |
| Sean Murphy | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.50 | 1 | -3.0% | Low | Loss |
| Ha-Seong Kim | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.27 | 0 | +7.4% | High | Win |
| Trea Turner | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.85 | 2 | +4.5% | Medium | Win |
| Drake Baldwin | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.46 | 3 | +16.3% | High | Win |
| Bryce Harper | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.89 | 5 | +6.6% | High | Win |
| Alec Bohm | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.64 | 4 | +2.3% | Low | Win |
| Kyle Schwarber | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.65 | 3 | +2.0% | Low | Win |
| Michael Harris II | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.30 | 1 | +13.5% | High | Loss |
| Bryson Stott | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.99 | 1 | +13.1% | High | Loss |
| Matt Olson | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.13 | 3 | +15.4% | High | Win |
| Ozzie Albies | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.34 | 1 | -0.5% | Low | Loss |
| Edmundo Sosa | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.69 | 1 | +9.9% | High | Loss |
| Austin Riley | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.52 | 1 | +7.5% | High | Loss |
| J.T. Realmuto | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.02 | 1 | -3.1% | Low | Win |
| Justin Crawford | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.24 | 1 | +9.4% | High | Win |
| Brandon Marsh | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.48 | 1 | +9.7% | High | Win |
| Sean Murphy | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.07 | 2 | +2.9% | Medium | Win |
| Ha-Seong Kim | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 0.78 | 1 | +1.1% | Low | Win |
| Bryce Harper | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.57 | 5 | +8.3% | High | Win |
| Trea Turner | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.43 | 2 | +5.3% | High | Win |
| Michael Harris II | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.94 | 1 | +16.6% | High | Loss |
| Drake Baldwin | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 2.11 | 3 | +21.1% | Low | Win |
| Alec Bohm | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.16 | 5 | +1.4% | Low | Win |
| Ozzie Albies | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 0.94 | 1 | -2.1% | Low | Loss |
CWS @ HOU15–2237 dec2 void40.5%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.32 | 0 | +9.1% | High | Loss |
| Yainer Diaz | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.23 | 0 | +7.9% | High | Loss |
| Jose Altuve | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.19 | 2 | +9.5% | High | Win |
| Sam Antonacci | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.13 | 1 | +9.7% | High | Win |
| Isaac Paredes | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.07 | 0 | +10.9% | High | Loss |
| Christian Walker | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.92 | 0 | +4.8% | Medium | Loss |
| Miguel Vargas | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.91 | 0 | +6.1% | High | Loss |
| Tristan Peters | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.49 | 1 | +4.2% | Medium | Loss |
| Chase Meidroth | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.26 | 2 | +20.2% | Low | Win |
| Braden Montgomery | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.00 | 0 | +14.0% | High | Loss |
| Kyle Teel | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.67 | 2 | +0.5% | Low | Win |
| Cam Smith | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.61 | 1 | -1.4% | Low | Win |
| Lucas Spence | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.70 | 0 | +2.6% | Medium | Loss |
| Andrew Benintendi | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.66 | 1 | +2.9% | Medium | Win |
| Munetaka Murakami | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.87 | 0 | +12.3% | High | Loss |
| Colson Montgomery | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.52 | 0 | -0.3% | Low | Loss |
| Taylor Trammell | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.42 | — | -1.1% | Low | Void |
| Yordan Alvarez | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.83 | 0 | +13.1% | High | Loss |
| Yainer Diaz | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.22 | 0 | +10.9% | High | Loss |
| Jose Altuve | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.13 | 4 | +11.3% | High | Win |
| Isaac Paredes | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.35 | 0 | +18.9% | High | Loss |
| Christian Walker | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.13 | 0 | +13.9% | High | Loss |
| Sam Antonacci | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.14 | 2 | +15.9% | High | Win |
| Miguel Vargas | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.39 | 1 | +18.5% | High | Loss |
| Munetaka Murakami | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.45 | 0 | +22.9% | Low | Loss |
| Tristan Peters | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.19 | 3 | +0.9% | Low | Win |
| Chase Meidroth | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.60 | 6 | +29.8% | Low | Win |
| Kyle Teel | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.97 | 4 | +17.5% | High | Win |
| Braden Montgomery | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.80 | 0 | +12.5% | High | Loss |
| Cam Smith | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.37 | 3 | +5.9% | High | Win |
| Lucas Spence | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 2.22 | 0 | +11.3% | High | Loss |
| Andrew Benintendi | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.69 | 3 | +11.8% | High | Win |
| Colson Montgomery | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.33 | 0 | +7.8% | High | Loss |
| Taylor Trammell | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 0.89 | — | +6.2% | High | Void |
| Yordan Alvarez | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 2.43 | 0 | +17.2% | High | Loss |
| Yainer Diaz | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 2.10 | 0 | +19.4% | High | Loss |
| Jose Altuve | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.67 | 5 | +13.8% | High | Win |
| Hunter Brown | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 | 7.19 | 2 | +14.1% | High | Loss |
| Sean Burke | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 | 5.53 | 8 | +5.7% | High | Win |
BOS @ NYY24–1438 dec63.2%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 | 5.46 | 6 | -2.6% | Low | Win |
| Sonny Gray | Strikeouts | Under 5.5 | 4.88 | 5 | +8.1% | High | Win |
| Ben Rice | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.99 | 1 | +0.1% | Low | Win |
| Cody Bellinger | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.95 | 2 | +0.7% | Low | Win |
| Adley Rutschman | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 0 | +1.9% | Low | Loss |
| Wilyer Abreu | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.72 | 0 | -2.0% | Low | Win |
| Caleb Durbin | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.77 | 0 | -0.9% | Low | Loss |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.96 | 0 | +7.5% | High | Loss |
| Willson Contreras | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.83 | 2 | +3.7% | Medium | Win |
| George Lombard Jr. | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.03 | 1 | +12.9% | High | Win |
| Spencer Jones | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.68 | 1 | -1.0% | Low | Win |
| Trevor Story | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.81 | 0 | +4.9% | Medium | Loss |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.95 | 2 | +11.8% | High | Win |
| Jarren Duran | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.68 | 0 | +1.3% | Low | Loss |
| Trent Grisham | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.52 | 2 | -1.2% | Low | Loss |
| Nick Sogard | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.87 | 1 | +11.9% | High | Win |
| Jahmai Jones | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.38 | 0 | +2.6% | Medium | Win |
| Austin Wells | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.61 | 1 | +4.7% | Medium | Win |
| Ryan McMahon | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.65 | 1 | +10.1% | High | Win |
| Cody Bellinger | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.95 | 7 | +8.4% | High | Win |
| Ben Rice | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.25 | 2 | +12.8% | High | Win |
| Adley Rutschman | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.72 | 0 | +5.4% | High | Loss |
| Wilyer Abreu | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.42 | 0 | +0.7% | Low | Loss |
| Willson Contreras | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.70 | 4 | +9.2% | High | Win |
| Spencer Jones | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.68 | 2 | +9.9% | High | Win |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.67 | 0 | +10.2% | High | Loss |
| Caleb Durbin | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.37 | 0 | +4.8% | Medium | Loss |
| George Lombard Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 2.51 | 3 | +20.3% | Low | Win |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.81 | 4 | +11.8% | High | Win |
| Trevor Story | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.57 | 0 | +10.1% | High | Loss |
| Trent Grisham | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.29 | 3 | +1.7% | Low | Win |
| Jarren Duran | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.17 | 0 | +3.6% | Medium | Loss |
| Nick Sogard | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.29 | 3 | +9.8% | High | Win |
| Jahmai Jones | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 0.72 | 0 | -2.2% | Low | Loss |
| Austin Wells | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.40 | 4 | +15.8% | High | Win |
| Ryan McMahon | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.57 | 2 | +21.0% | Low | Win |
| Ben Rice | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 2.14 | 1 | +15.7% | High | Loss |
| Cody Bellinger | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.56 | 5 | +8.9% | High | Win |
CHC @ SD17–2340 dec42.5%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 | 6.07 | 1 | +26.1% | Low | Loss |
| Nick Pivetta | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 | 5.30 | 4 | +5.8% | High | Loss |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Hits | Over 1.5 | 1.17 | 0 | +0.0% | Low | Loss |
| Jackson Merrill | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.05 | 2 | +1.7% | Low | Win |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.09 | 0 | +4.5% | Medium | Loss |
| Dustin Harris | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.05 | 0 | +7.0% | High | Loss |
| Nico Hoerner | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.92 | 2 | +0.6% | Low | Win |
| Ty France | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.11 | 2 | +7.2% | High | Win |
| Manny Machado | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.71 | 1 | -1.2% | Low | Loss |
| Alex Bregman | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.02 | 0 | +7.3% | High | Loss |
| Xander Bogaerts | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 2 | +7.1% | High | Win |
| Seiya Suzuki | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.11 | 1 | +12.4% | High | Win |
| Gavin Sheets | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.61 | 1 | -3.4% | Low | Win |
| Carson Kelly | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.72 | 1 | +2.0% | Low | Win |
| Michael Busch | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.95 | 0 | +13.1% | High | Loss |
| Dansby Swanson | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.72 | 0 | +4.3% | Medium | Loss |
| Jake Cronenworth | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 0 | +14.8% | High | Loss |
| Ian Happ | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.73 | 0 | +7.0% | High | Loss |
| Ethan Salas | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.81 | 0 | +11.8% | High | Loss |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.33 | 0 | +4.8% | Medium | Loss |
| Jackson Merrill | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.20 | 3 | +10.5% | High | Win |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.39 | 0 | +12.3% | High | Loss |
| Ty France | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.22 | 3 | +12.3% | High | Win |
| Dustin Harris | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.29 | 0 | +17.8% | High | Loss |
| Manny Machado | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.80 | 1 | +7.1% | High | Loss |
| Seiya Suzuki | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.25 | 2 | +17.2% | High | Win |
| Xander Bogaerts | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.95 | 4 | +15.0% | High | Win |
| Alex Bregman | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.37 | 0 | +18.3% | High | Loss |
| Nico Hoerner | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.59 | 3 | +6.2% | High | Win |
| Gavin Sheets | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.34 | 4 | +4.3% | Medium | Win |
| Michael Busch | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.74 | 0 | +12.4% | High | Loss |
| Carson Kelly | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.52 | 1 | +6.4% | High | Win |
| Jake Cronenworth | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 2.30 | 0 | +23.0% | Low | Loss |
| Dansby Swanson | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.97 | 0 | +11.1% | High | Loss |
| Ian Happ | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.64 | 0 | +12.2% | High | Loss |
| Ethan Salas | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.71 | 1 | +16.2% | High | Win |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.97 | 0 | +7.9% | High | Loss |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 2.30 | 0 | +15.7% | High | Loss |
| Jackson Merrill | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.71 | 2 | +10.8% | High | Win |
| Ty France | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.71 | 3 | +12.8% | High | Win |