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Results · one day

Tuesday, September 29

Game by game

Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.

MLB · 4–4 game calls

Full MLB record →

Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →

Not in this record, but still graded below: 4 calls paused on the site or not shown before the game.

PHI @ ATL
Final · PHI 3 – 5 ATL
Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Call Pick Outcome
Winner ATL (home) Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 6.5 Win
Run line (simulated ±1.5) PHI +1.5 Loss
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 16–17 · 2 void →
CWS @ HOU
Final · CWS 6 – 3 HOU
Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Call Pick Outcome
Winner HOU (home) Loss
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 8 Win
Run line (simulated ±1.5) CWS +1.5 Win
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 15–23 →
BOS @ NYY
Final · BOS 0 – 9 NYY
Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Call Pick Outcome
Winner NYY (home) Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 6.5 Win
Run line (simulated ±1.5) BOS +1.5 Loss
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 14–22 →
CHC @ SD
Final · CHC 0 – 8 SD
Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Call Pick Outcome
Winner SD (home) Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 7 Win
Run line (simulated ±1.5) CHC +1.5 Loss
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 19–22 →

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	ATL (home)	Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick	OVER 6.5	Win
Run line (simulated ±1.5)	PHI +1.5	Loss

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	HOU (home)	Loss
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick	OVER 8	Win
Run line (simulated ±1.5)	CWS +1.5	Win

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	NYY (home)	Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick	OVER 6.5	Win
Run line (simulated ±1.5)	BOS +1.5	Loss

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	SD (home)	Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick	OVER 7	Win
Run line (simulated ±1.5)	CHC +1.5	Loss

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.

No qualifying board was frozen for Tuesday, September 29.

MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.

Product cards settled this day

Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.

Bank Builder · lane A
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Bank Builder · lane B
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Moonshot · lane A
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Moonshot · lane B
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks

Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.

MLB

43.2%

64–84 on 148

Full MLB audit →

Biggest hits

MLBGeorge Lombard Jr.Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+25.9pp edgeactual 5
MLBChase MeidrothOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+25.0pp edgeactual 4
MLBJake CronenworthOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+21.4pp edgeactual 1
MLBBryson StottOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+20.2pp edgeactual 2
MLBMunetaka MurakamiOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+19.6pp edgeactual 4

Biggest misses

MLBAlex BregmanOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+18.1pp edgeactual 0
MLBPete Crow-ArmstrongOver 1.5 Total Bases+15.2pp edgeactual 0
MLBMiguel VargasOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+13.8pp edgeactual 0
MLBDrake BaldwinOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+11.8pp edgeactual 0
MLBPete Crow-ArmstrongOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+10.9pp edgeactual 0

MLB settled games · projection vs actual

PHI @ ATL

16–1733 dec2 void48.5%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Michael Harris II	Hits	Over 0.5	1.21	3	+3.1%	Medium	Win
Drake Baldwin	Hits	Over 0.5	1.32	0	+8.9%	High	Loss
Matt Olson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.98	0	+2.4%	Low	Loss
Ozzie Albies	Hits	Under 0.5	0.65	1	+5.1%	High	Loss
Alec Bohm	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	1	+1.8%	Low	Win
Trea Turner	Hits	Over 0.5	1.05	0	+9.5%	High	Loss
Austin Riley	Hits	Over 0.5	0.69	1	-2.8%	Low	Win
Bryce Harper	Hits	Over 0.5	0.98	0	+8.2%	High	Loss
Kyle Schwarber	Hits	Over 0.5	0.68	1	-0.8%	Low	Win
Bryson Stott	Hits	Over 0.5	1.09	1	+19.5%	High	Win
Edmundo Sosa	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	1	+7.6%	High	Win
J.T. Realmuto	Hits	Under 0.5	0.40	1	-0.3%	Low	Loss
Bryan De La Cruz	Hits	Over 0.5	0.55	0	+1.1%	Low	Loss
Sean Murphy	Hits	Over 0.5	0.50	—	+2.8%	Medium	Void
Derek Hill	Hits	Over 0.5	0.52	0	+6.3%	High	Loss
Drake Baldwin	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.46	0	+11.8%	High	Loss
Michael Harris II	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.30	5	+9.3%	High	Win
Matt Olson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.13	0	+9.3%	High	Loss
Ozzie Albies	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.34	4	-2.2%	Low	Loss
Austin Riley	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.52	5	+3.9%	Medium	Win
Kyle Schwarber	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.65	2	+8.4%	High	Win
Alec Bohm	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.64	2	+9.5%	High	Win
Trea Turner	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.85	0	+13.8%	High	Loss
Bryce Harper	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.89	0	+16.0%	High	Loss
Bryson Stott	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.99	2	+20.2%	Low	Win
Edmundo Sosa	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.69	1	+16.1%	High	Win
J.T. Realmuto	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.02	3	+5.3%	High	Win
Bryan De La Cruz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.17	1	+11.5%	High	Win
Sean Murphy	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.07	—	+7.8%	High	Void
Derek Hill	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.26	0	+20.8%	Low	Loss
Drake Baldwin	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.11	0	+17.7%	High	Loss
Matt Olson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.82	0	+11.5%	High	Loss
Michael Harris II	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.94	3	+14.6%	High	Win
Ozzie Albies	Total Bases	Under 1.5	0.94	3	-3.1%	Low	Loss
Chris Sale	Strikeouts	Over 7.5	7.55	9	+0.7%	Low	Win

CWS @ HOU

15–2338 dec39.5%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Yordan Alvarez	Hits	Over 0.5	1.32	1	+7.8%	High	Win
Yainer Diaz	Hits	Over 0.5	1.23	0	+7.8%	High	Loss
Jose Altuve	Hits	Over 0.5	1.19	0	+10.4%	High	Loss
Sam Antonacci	Hits	Over 0.5	1.13	1	+8.8%	High	Win
Miguel Vargas	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	0	+3.2%	Medium	Loss
Isaac Paredes	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	1	+10.1%	High	Win
Chase Meidroth	Hits	Over 0.5	1.26	2	+16.6%	High	Win
Christian Walker	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	0	+5.8%	High	Loss
Kyle Teel	Hits	Under 0.5	0.67	1	-2.8%	Low	Loss
Tristan Peters	Hits	Under 0.5	0.49	1	+5.0%	Medium	Loss
Braden Montgomery	Hits	Over 0.5	1.00	2	+11.9%	High	Win
Munetaka Murakami	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	1	+9.2%	High	Win
Lucas Spence	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	1	+2.6%	Medium	Win
Cam Smith	Hits	Over 0.5	0.61	1	-0.0%	Low	Win
Colson Montgomery	Hits	Under 0.5	0.52	1	-2.6%	Low	Loss
Andrew Benintendi	Hits	Over 0.5	0.66	0	+3.8%	Medium	Loss
Taylor Trammell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.42	0	-0.9%	Low	Loss
Yordan Alvarez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.83	1	+12.2%	High	Loss
Yainer Diaz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.22	0	+9.9%	High	Loss
Miguel Vargas	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.39	0	+13.8%	High	Loss
Jose Altuve	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.13	0	+11.8%	High	Loss
Isaac Paredes	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.35	1	+16.7%	High	Loss
Sam Antonacci	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.14	4	+13.7%	High	Win
Kyle Teel	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.97	1	+11.3%	High	Loss
Christian Walker	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.13	0	+14.4%	High	Loss
Chase Meidroth	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.60	4	+25.0%	Low	Win
Munetaka Murakami	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.45	4	+19.6%	High	Win
Tristan Peters	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.19	1	-0.3%	Low	Loss
Braden Montgomery	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.80	3	+13.9%	High	Win
Lucas Spence	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.22	2	+10.3%	High	Win
Cam Smith	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.37	1	+6.6%	High	Win
Colson Montgomery	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.33	3	+4.5%	Medium	Win
Andrew Benintendi	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.69	0	+12.6%	High	Loss
Taylor Trammell	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.89	0	+5.4%	High	Loss
Yordan Alvarez	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.43	1	+15.0%	High	Loss
Yainer Diaz	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.10	0	+18.1%	High	Loss
Miguel Vargas	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.68	0	+10.9%	High	Loss
Jose Altuve	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.67	0	+12.6%	High	Loss

BOS @ NYY

14–2236 dec38.9%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Cody Bellinger	Hits	Over 0.5	0.95	1	+2.8%	Medium	Win
Roman Anthony	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	0	+7.0%	High	Loss
Ceddanne Rafaela	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	0	+8.3%	High	Loss
Paul Goldschmidt	Hits	Over 0.5	0.82	0	+3.6%	Medium	Loss
Ben Rice	Hits	Over 0.5	0.99	4	+9.6%	High	Win
Adley Rutschman	Hits	Over 0.5	0.94	1	+8.2%	High	Win
Caleb Durbin	Hits	Over 0.5	0.77	0	+2.5%	Medium	Loss
Willson Contreras	Hits	Over 0.5	0.83	0	+5.3%	High	Loss
Wilyer Abreu	Hits	Over 0.5	0.72	1	+1.5%	Low	Win
Amed Rosario	Hits	Over 0.5	0.81	0	+6.3%	High	Loss
Heliot Ramos	Hits	Over 0.5	0.89	0	+9.9%	High	Loss
Trevor Story	Hits	Over 0.5	0.81	1	+6.8%	High	Win
George Lombard Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	1.03	3	+18.2%	High	Win
Nick Sogard	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	0	+13.6%	High	Loss
Jarren Duran	Hits	Over 0.5	0.68	0	+6.2%	High	Loss
Anthony Volpe	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	1	+13.5%	High	Win
Austin Wells	Hits	Over 0.5	0.61	2	+6.4%	High	Win
Cody Bellinger	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.95	1	+11.0%	High	Loss
Roman Anthony	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.78	0	+10.8%	High	Loss
Ben Rice	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.25	12	+17.7%	High	Win
Paul Goldschmidt	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.63	1	+9.0%	High	Loss
Adley Rutschman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.72	1	+11.1%	High	Loss
Ceddanne Rafaela	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.67	0	+7.5%	High	Loss
Willson Contreras	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.70	0	+7.8%	High	Loss
Caleb Durbin	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.37	0	+3.1%	Medium	Loss
Wilyer Abreu	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.42	1	+4.7%	Medium	Win
Heliot Ramos	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.86	0	+12.1%	High	Loss
Amed Rosario	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.62	0	+9.2%	High	Loss
Trevor Story	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.57	1	+10.9%	High	Win
George Lombard Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.51	5	+25.9%	Low	Win
Nick Sogard	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.29	0	+11.0%	High	Loss
Anthony Volpe	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.52	1	+12.0%	High	Win
Jarren Duran	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.17	0	+8.1%	High	Loss
Austin Wells	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.40	5	+17.4%	High	Win
Cam Schlittler	Strikeouts	Under 7.5	6.74	10	+5.0%	High	Loss
Payton Tolle	Strikeouts	Over 6.5	7.36	4	+3.0%	Medium	Loss

CHC @ SD

19–2241 dec46.3%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Matthew Boyd	Strikeouts	Under 3.5	3.80	4	-1.5%	Low	Loss
Michael King	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	4.99	8	+3.2%	Medium	Win
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Hits	Over 1.5	1.17	2	+1.6%	Low	Win
Jackson Merrill	Hits	Over 0.5	1.05	2	+2.5%	Medium	Win
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Hits	Over 0.5	1.09	0	+3.7%	Medium	Loss
Nico Hoerner	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	2	-1.1%	Low	Win
Ty France	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	2	+6.8%	High	Win
Xander Bogaerts	Hits	Over 0.5	0.94	2	+3.4%	Medium	Win
Manny Machado	Hits	Under 0.5	0.71	2	-0.5%	Low	Loss
Alex Bregman	Hits	Over 0.5	1.02	0	+7.0%	High	Loss
Seiya Suzuki	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	1	+12.0%	High	Win
Michael Busch	Hits	Over 0.5	0.95	0	+8.9%	High	Loss
Luis Campusano	Hits	Over 0.5	0.75	1	+1.3%	Low	Win
Carson Kelly	Hits	Over 0.5	0.72	0	+1.9%	Low	Loss
Austin Hays	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	0	+8.8%	High	Loss
Jake Cronenworth	Hits	Over 0.5	0.94	1	+12.5%	High	Win
Samad Taylor	Hits	Over 0.5	1.06	0	+16.9%	High	Loss
Ian Happ	Hits	Over 0.5	0.73	0	+5.1%	High	Loss
Dansby Swanson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.72	0	+4.8%	Medium	Loss
Michael Conforto	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	0	+8.5%	High	Loss
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.33	6	+7.3%	High	Win
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.39	0	+10.9%	High	Loss
Jackson Merrill	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.20	4	+11.7%	High	Win
Manny Machado	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.80	6	+6.1%	High	Win
Ty France	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.22	3	+13.6%	High	Win
Xander Bogaerts	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.95	4	+11.9%	High	Win
Nico Hoerner	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.59	2	+4.0%	Medium	Win
Seiya Suzuki	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.25	1	+17.6%	High	Loss
Alex Bregman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.37	0	+18.1%	High	Loss
Michael Busch	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.74	0	+11.2%	High	Loss
Luis Campusano	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.48	2	+7.0%	High	Win
Austin Hays	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.83	0	+15.5%	High	Loss
Carson Kelly	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.52	0	+6.0%	High	Loss
Jake Cronenworth	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.30	1	+21.4%	Low	Win
Ian Happ	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.64	0	+9.6%	High	Loss
Dansby Swanson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.97	0	+11.9%	High	Loss
Samad Taylor	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.23	0	+23.3%	Low	Loss
Michael Conforto	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.33	0	+9.0%	High	Loss
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.97	5	+9.6%	High	Win
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.30	0	+15.2%	High	Loss
Jackson Merrill	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.71	2	+12.5%	High	Win

all settled dates

Game by game

MLB · 4–4 game calls

PHI @ ATL

CWS @ HOU

BOS @ NYY

CHC @ SD

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

Product cards settled this day

Bank Builder · lane A

Bank Builder · lane B

Moonshot · lane A

Moonshot · lane B

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks