Skip to main content
Educational analyticsNot betting advice · research use only.
GameTime Picks
Today · Oct 30 · 10 eventsLatest results· Oct 29
Settled · graded against final box scores
64–84 on 148 decisive picks · 43.2%2026-09-29
View audit →
Slate · pick a date
Mon, Oct 26SettledTue, Oct 27SettledWed, Oct 28SettledTodayUpcomingTomorrowUpcomingSun, Nov 1UpcomingMon, Nov 2UpcomingTue, Nov 3UpcomingWed, Nov 4UpcomingThu, Nov 5Upcoming
MLB model board · 2026-09-29

4 MLB games · 148 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDSep 29, 7:25 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
93
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
20
model vs market · context
Small gap
20
6 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
9
no projection emitted
Strikeouts1 gap ≥ 5 pp·6 totalHits38 gap ≥ 5 pp·71 totalHits + Runs + RBIs54 gap ≥ 5 pp·71 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Drake Baldwin
Drake BaldwinATL vs PHI
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+8.9%
proj 1.32-257 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase MeidrothCWS vs HOU
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+16.6%
proj 1.26-176 · draftkings
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan AlvarezHOU vs CWS
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+7.8%
proj 1.32-258 · draftkings
Austin Hays
Austin HaysSD vs CHC
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+15.5%
proj 1.83-172 · draftkings
Yainer Diaz
Yainer DiazHOU vs CWS
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+7.8%
proj 1.23-240 · draftkings
Jose Altuve
Jose AltuveHOU vs CWS
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+10.4%
proj 1.19-198 · draftkings
Bryson Stott
Bryson StottPHI vs ATL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+19.5%
proj 1.09-128 · draftkings
Heliot Ramos
Heliot RamosNYY vs BOS
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+12.1%
proj 1.86-172 · draftkings
Filters · 148 of 148 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Truist Park36 leansFinal · graded

PHI@ATL

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

first pitch
2:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Jesús Luzardo
probable · awayJesús Luzardo
PHI
Chris Sale
probable · homeChris Sale
ATL
Strikeouts
Chris Sale
Chris Sale
ATLvsPHIPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
OVER7.5
Projection7.55
Edge+0.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 7.4 K across 27 starts
-101 · draftkings
Jesus Luzardo
PHI @ ATLPitcherStrikeouts
Sample too small
Line2.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Bryson Stott
Bryson Stott
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.09
Edge+19.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 155 games
-128 · draftkings
Edmundo Sosa
Edmundo Sosa
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.69
Edge+16.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 83 games
-128 · draftkings
Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.89
Edge+16%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.08 across 161 games
+139 · draftkings
Trea Turner
Trea Turner
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.85
Edge+13.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 157 games
+131 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.46
Edge+11.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
  • SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 138 games
-128 · draftkings
Bryan De La Cruz
Bryan De La Cruz
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+11.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.43 across 30 games
-125 · draftkings
Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.64
Edge+9.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 153 games
+131 · draftkings
Trea Turner
Trea Turner
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+9.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 157 games
-172 · draftkings
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.13
Edge+9.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 162 games
-114 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.3
Edge+9.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.19 across 155 games
-121 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.32
Edge+8.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 138 games
-257 · draftkings
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.65
Edge+8.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 156 games
+127 · draftkings
Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+8.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 161 games
-156 · draftkings
Sean Murphy
Sean Murphy
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+7.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 33 games
-121 · draftkings
Edmundo Sosa
Edmundo Sosa
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+7.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 83 games
-115 · draftkings
Derek Hill
Derek Hill
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge+6.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.55 across 88 games
+124 · draftkings
J.T. Realmuto
J.T. Realmuto
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge+5.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.54 across 122 games
-128 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.65
Edge+5.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 162 games
+164 · draftkings
Austin Riley
Austin Riley
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.52
Edge+3.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 159 games
+115 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.21
Edge+3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 155 games
-259 · draftkings
Sean Murphy
Sean Murphy
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.5
Edge+2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 33 games
+112 · draftkings
Derek Hill
Derek HillModel anomaly
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.26
Edge+20.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.22 across 88 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+105 · draftkings
Bryson Stott
Bryson StottModel anomaly
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.99
Edge+20.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.77 across 155 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-149 · draftkings
Austin Riley
Austin Riley
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.69
Edge−2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 159 games
-160 · draftkings
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 162 games
-222 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.34
Edge−2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 162 games
-125 · draftkings
Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 153 games
-176 · draftkings
Bryan De La Cruz
Bryan De La Cruz
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.55
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 30 games
-105 · draftkings
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge−0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 156 games
-141 · draftkings
J.T. Realmuto
J.T. Realmuto
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.4
Edge−0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 122 games
-122 · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
PHI @ ATLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ronald Acuna Jr.
PHI @ ATLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ronald Acuna Jr.
PHI @ ATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
PHI @ ATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Daikin Park36 leansFinal · graded

CWS@HOU

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros

first pitch
5:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Hagen Smith
probable · awayHagen Smith
CWS
AJ Blubaugh
probable · homeAJ Blubaugh
HOU
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.45
Edge+19.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.99 across 127 games
+114 · draftkings
Isaac Paredes
Isaac Paredes
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.35
Edge+16.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 155 games
-102 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase Meidroth
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.26
Edge+16.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 154 games
-176 · draftkings
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.13
Edge+14.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.86 across 155 games
+111 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.8
Edge+13.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.71 across 92 games
+133 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.39
Edge+13.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
  • SeasonSeason average 2.18 across 159 games
-108 · draftkings
Sam Antonacci
Sam Antonacci
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.14
Edge+13.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 139 games
+100 · draftkings
Andrew Benintendi
Andrew Benintendi
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.69
Edge+12.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.68 across 141 games
-155 · draftkings
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.83
Edge+12.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.47 across 158 games
-146 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+11.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 92 games
-152 · draftkings
Jose Altuve
Jose Altuve
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.13
Edge+11.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.86 across 135 games
-106 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
Kyle Teel
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+11.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 39 games
+108 · draftkings
Jose Altuve
Jose Altuve
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.19
Edge+10.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 135 games
-198 · draftkings
Lucas Spence
Lucas Spence
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection2.22
Edge+10.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 17 games
-172 · draftkings
Isaac Paredes
Isaac Paredes
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+10.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 155 games
-182 · draftkings
Yainer Diaz
Yainer Diaz
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.22
Edge+9.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.95 across 93 games
-120 · draftkings
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+9.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 127 games
-136 · draftkings
Sam Antonacci
Sam Antonacci
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.13
Edge+8.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 139 games
-197 · draftkings
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.32
Edge+7.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 158 games
-258 · draftkings
Yainer Diaz
Yainer Diaz
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.23
Edge+7.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 93 games
-240 · draftkings
Cam Smith
Cam Smith
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.37
Edge+6.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.53 across 150 games
-160 · draftkings
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge+5.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 155 games
-167 · draftkings
Taylor Trammell
Taylor Trammell
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.89
Edge+5.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 92 games
-122 · draftkings
Tristan Peters
Tristan Peters
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.49
Edge+5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 149 games
+120 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+4.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 153 games
-160 · draftkings
Andrew Benintendi
Andrew Benintendi
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.66
Edge+3.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 141 games
-116 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+3.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 159 games
-188 · draftkings
Lucas Spence
Lucas Spence
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 17 games
-129 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase MeidrothModel anomaly
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.6
Edge+25%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 154 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+113 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
Kyle Teel
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge−2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 39 games
+123 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge−2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 153 games
-107 · draftkings
Taylor Trammell
Taylor Trammell
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.42
Edge−0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.53 across 92 games
+112 · draftkings
Tristan Peters
Tristan Peters
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.19
Edge−0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.57 across 149 games
+127 · draftkings
Cam Smith
Cam Smith
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge0%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 150 games
-123 · draftkings
Jeremy Pena
CWS @ HOUBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Jeremy Pena
CWS @ HOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Yankee Stadium38 leansFinal · graded

BOS@NYY

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Payton Tolle
probable · awayPayton Tolle
BOS
Cam Schlittler
probable · homeCam Schlittler
NYY
Strikeouts
Cam Schlittler
Cam Schlittler
NYYvsBOSPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER7.5
Projection6.74
Edge+5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 7.2 K across 33 starts
-141 · draftkings
Payton Tolle
Payton Tolle
BOSvsNYYPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER6.5
Projection7.36
Edge+3%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.6 K across 26 starts
-146 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
George Lombard Jr.
George Lombard Jr.
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.03
Edge+18.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 42 games
-123 · draftkings
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.25
Edge+17.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 154 games
+122 · draftkings
Austin Wells
Austin Wells
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.4
Edge+17.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 121 games
-121 · draftkings
Nick Sogard
Nick Sogard
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+13.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 65 games
-114 · draftkings
Anthony Volpe
Anthony Volpe
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+13.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 69 games
-107 · draftkings
Heliot Ramos
Heliot Ramos
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.86
Edge+12.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.72 across 112 games
-172 · draftkings
Anthony Volpe
Anthony Volpe
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.52
Edge+12%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.54 across 69 games
-140 · draftkings
Adley Rutschman
Adley Rutschman
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.72
Edge+11.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 99 games
+135 · draftkings
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.95
Edge+11%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 132 games
+110 · draftkings
Nick Sogard
Nick Sogard
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.29
Edge+11%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.68 across 65 games
-143 · draftkings
Trevor Story
Trevor Story
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.57
Edge+10.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.75 across 64 games
-166 · draftkings
Roman Anthony
Roman Anthony
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.78
Edge+10.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.65 across 55 games
+117 · draftkings
Heliot Ramos
Heliot Ramos
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.89
Edge+9.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 112 games
-137 · draftkings
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.99
Edge+9.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 154 games
-153 · draftkings
Amed Rosario
Amed Rosario
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.62
Edge+9.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.35 across 86 games
-166 · draftkings
Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.63
Edge+9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 104 games
+129 · draftkings
Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+8.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 136 games
-162 · draftkings
Adley Rutschman
Adley Rutschman
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+8.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 99 games
-149 · draftkings
Jarren Duran
Jarren Duran
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+8.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.65 across 151 games
-129 · draftkings
Willson Contreras
Willson Contreras
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.7
Edge+7.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 2.11 across 129 games
-180 · draftkings
Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.67
Edge+7.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.13 across 136 games
-188 · draftkings
Roman Anthony
Roman Anthony
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 55 games
-167 · draftkings
Trevor Story
Trevor Story
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge+6.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 64 games
-135 · draftkings
Austin Wells
Austin Wells
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge+6.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.51 across 121 games
+105 · draftkings
Amed Rosario
Amed Rosario
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge+6.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 86 games
-138 · draftkings
Jarren Duran
Jarren Duran
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 151 games
-109 · draftkings
Willson Contreras
Willson Contreras
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.83
Edge+5.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 129 games
-144 · draftkings
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.42
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 157 games
-175 · draftkings
Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.82
Edge+3.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 104 games
-154 · draftkings
Caleb Durbin
Caleb Durbin
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.37
Edge+3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.75 across 151 games
-179 · draftkings
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 132 games
-197 · draftkings
Caleb Durbin
Caleb Durbin
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.77
Edge+2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 151 games
-147 · draftkings
George Lombard Jr.
George Lombard Jr.Model anomaly
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.51
Edge+25.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.93 across 42 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-147 · draftkings
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 157 games
-139 · draftkings
Aaron Judge
BOS @ NYYBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Aaron Judge
BOS @ NYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Petco Park38 leansFinal · graded

CHC@SD

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres

first pitch
10:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Matthew Boyd
probable · awayMatthew Boyd
CHC
Michael King
probable · homeMichael King
SD
Strikeouts
Michael King
Michael King
SDvsCHCPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection4.99
Edge+3.2%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.0 K across 32 starts
-143 · draftkings
Matthew Boyd
Matthew Boyd
CHCvsSDPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
UNDER3.5
Projection3.8
Edge−1.5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.4 K across 22 starts
+121 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Alex Bregman
Alex Bregman
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.37
Edge+18.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
  • SeasonSeason average 2.23 across 155 games
+118 · draftkings
Seiya Suzuki
Seiya Suzuki
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.25
Edge+17.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.30 across 143 games
+117 · draftkings
Samad Taylor
Samad Taylor
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.06
Edge+16.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 47 games
-128 · draftkings
Austin Hays
Austin Hays
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.83
Edge+15.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.55 across 38 games
-172 · draftkings
Ty France
Ty France
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.22
Edge+13.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 128 games
+103 · draftkings
Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+12.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 108 games
-133 · draftkings
Seiya Suzuki
Seiya Suzuki
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+12%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 143 games
-166 · draftkings
Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.95
Edge+11.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.60 across 153 games
+104 · draftkings
Dansby Swanson
Dansby Swanson
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.97
Edge+11.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 124 games
-153 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.2
Edge+11.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 157 games
-104 · draftkings
Michael Busch
Michael Busch
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.74
Edge+11.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 160 games
+127 · draftkings
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.39
Edge+10.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 2.48 across 162 games
-112 · draftkings
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.64
Edge+9.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 155 games
-165 · draftkings
Michael Conforto
Michael Conforto
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 112 games
-137 · draftkings
Michael Busch
Michael Busch
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+8.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 160 games
-158 · draftkings
Austin Hays
Austin Hays
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+8.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 38 games
-138 · draftkings
Michael Conforto
Michael Conforto
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+8.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.58 across 112 games
-111 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.33
Edge+7.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 159 games
-144 · draftkings
Alex Bregman
Alex Bregman
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge+7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 155 games
-172 · draftkings
Luis Campusano
Luis Campusano
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.48
Edge+7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.56 across 71 games
-178 · draftkings
Ty France
Ty France
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+6.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 128 games
-201 · draftkings
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.8
Edge+6.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 158 games
+101 · draftkings
Carson Kelly
Carson Kelly
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.52
Edge+6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.84 across 116 games
-172 · draftkings
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.73
Edge+5.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 155 games
-125 · draftkings
Dansby Swanson
Dansby Swanson
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+4.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 124 games
-124 · draftkings
Nico Hoerner
Nico Hoerner
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.59
Edge+4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 159 games
+109 · draftkings
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.09
Edge+3.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.08 across 162 games
-214 · draftkings
Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 153 games
-197 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 157 games
-214 · draftkings
Samad Taylor
Samad TaylorModel anomaly
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.23
Edge+23.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.96 across 47 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-150 · draftkings
Jake Cronenworth
Jake CronenworthModel anomaly
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.3
Edge+21.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 108 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-171 · draftkings
Carson Kelly
Carson Kelly
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 116 games
-140 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.17
Edge+1.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 159 games
+181 · draftkings
Luis Campusano
Luis Campusano
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.75
Edge+1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 71 games
-149 · draftkings
Nico Hoerner
Nico Hoerner
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge−1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 159 games
-213 · draftkings
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge−0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 158 games
+143 · draftkings
Open MLB model audit · partial →
Home runs live on the Power Board

Open the MLB Power Board →

HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.

← back to MLB overview