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84–70 on 154 decisive picks · 54.5%2026-09-30
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MLB model board · 2026-09-30

4 MLB games · 152 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDSep 30, 7:14 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
79
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
20
model vs market · context
Small gap
35
7 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
11
no projection emitted
Strikeouts4 gap ≥ 5 pp·8 totalHits28 gap ≥ 5 pp·72 totalHits + Runs + RBIs47 gap ≥ 5 pp·72 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Drake Baldwin
Drake BaldwinATL vs PHI
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+10.3%
proj 1.32-240 · draftkings
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan AlvarezHOU vs CWS
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+9.1%
proj 1.32-242 · draftkings
Yainer Diaz
Yainer DiazHOU vs CWS
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+7.9%
proj 1.23-239 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden MontgomeryCWS vs HOU
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+12.5%
proj 1.8-183 · draftkings
Jose Altuve
Jose AltuveHOU vs CWS
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+9.5%
proj 1.19-206 · draftkings
Bryson Stott
Bryson StottPHI vs ATL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+10.1%
proj 1.09-190 · draftkings
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY vs BOS
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+11.8%
proj 1.81-175 · draftkings
Michael Busch
Michael BuschCHC vs SD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+12.4%
proj 1.74-170 · draftkings
Filters · 152 of 152 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Truist Park38 leansFinal · graded

PHI@ATL

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

first pitch
2:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Cristopher Sánchez
probable · awayCristopher Sánchez
PHI
Tyler Mahle
probable · homeTyler Mahle
ATL
Strikeouts
Tyler Mahle
Tyler Mahle
ATLvsPHIPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
OVER4.5
Projection4.67
Edge−2.4%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.1 K across 27 starts
-127 · draftkings
Cristopher Sanchez
PHI @ ATLPitcherStrikeouts
Sample too small
Line6.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.46
Edge+16.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
  • SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 138 games
-107 · draftkings
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.13
Edge+15.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 162 games
+112 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.3
Edge+13.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.19 across 155 games
-102 · draftkings
Bryson Stott
Bryson Stott
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.99
Edge+13.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.77 across 155 games
+109 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.32
Edge+10.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 138 games
-240 · draftkings
Bryson Stott
Bryson Stott
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.09
Edge+10.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 155 games
-190 · draftkings
Edmundo Sosa
Edmundo Sosa
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.69
Edge+9.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 83 games
+128 · draftkings
Brandon Marsh
Brandon Marsh
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.48
Edge+9.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 153 games
-151 · draftkings
Justin Crawford
Justin Crawford
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+9.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.39 across 144 games
-155 · draftkings
Austin Riley
Austin Riley
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.52
Edge+7.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 159 games
+133 · draftkings
Ha-Seong Kim
Ha-Seong Kim
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.27
Edge+7.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.33 across 45 games
-114 · draftkings
J.T. Realmuto
J.T. Realmuto
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.4
Edge+7.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 122 games
+110 · draftkings
Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.89
Edge+6.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.08 across 161 games
-105 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.21
Edge+6.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 155 games
-221 · draftkings
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+5.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 162 games
-191 · draftkings
Trea Turner
Trea Turner
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.85
Edge+4.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 157 games
-111 · draftkings
Justin Crawford
Justin Crawford
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+3.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 144 games
-134 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.65
Edge+3.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 162 games
+155 · draftkings
Brandon Marsh
Brandon Marsh
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.69
Edge+3.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 153 games
-121 · draftkings
Sean Murphy
Sean Murphy
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+2.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 33 games
-148 · draftkings
Trea Turner
Trea Turner
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 157 games
-232 · draftkings
Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge−3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 153 games
-219 · draftkings
J.T. Realmuto
J.T. Realmuto
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge−3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.54 across 122 games
-182 · draftkings
Sean Murphy
Sean Murphy
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.5
Edge−3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 33 games
-113 · draftkings
Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.64
Edge+2.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 153 games
-102 · draftkings
Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 161 games
-204 · draftkings
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.65
Edge+2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 156 games
-102 · draftkings
Austin Riley
Austin Riley
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.69
Edge−1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 159 games
-154 · draftkings
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge−1.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 156 games
+128 · draftkings
Ha-Seong Kim
Ha-Seong Kim
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 45 games
-139 · draftkings
Edmundo Sosa
Edmundo Sosa
PHIvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge−1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 83 games
-164 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.34
Edge−0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 162 games
+112 · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
PHI @ ATLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ronald Acuna Jr.
PHI @ ATLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
PHI @ ATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ronald Acuna Jr.
PHI @ ATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Daikin Park38 leansFinal · graded

CWS@HOU

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros

first pitch
5:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Sean Burke
probable · awaySean Burke
CWS
Hunter Brown
probable · homeHunter Brown
HOU
Strikeouts
Hunter Brown
Hunter Brown
HOUvsCWSPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER6.5
Projection7.19
Edge+14.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.2 K across 20 starts
+110 · draftkings
Sean Burke
Sean Burke
CWSvsHOUPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER5.5
Projection5.53
Edge+5.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.8 K across 32 starts
+123 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Isaac Paredes
Isaac Paredes
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.35
Edge+18.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 155 games
+107 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.39
Edge+18.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
  • SeasonSeason average 2.18 across 159 games
+112 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
Kyle Teel
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+17.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 39 games
+139 · draftkings
Sam Antonacci
Sam Antonacci
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.14
Edge+15.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 139 games
+109 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+14%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 92 games
-139 · draftkings
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.13
Edge+13.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.86 across 155 games
+109 · draftkings
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.83
Edge+13.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.47 across 158 games
-141 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.8
Edge+12.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.71 across 92 games
-183 · draftkings
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+12.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 127 games
-120 · draftkings
Andrew Benintendi
Andrew Benintendi
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.69
Edge+11.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.68 across 141 games
-160 · draftkings
Jose Altuve
Jose Altuve
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.13
Edge+11.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.86 across 135 games
-108 · draftkings
Lucas Spence
Lucas Spence
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection2.22
Edge+11.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 17 games
-165 · draftkings
Yainer Diaz
Yainer Diaz
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.22
Edge+10.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.95 across 93 games
-115 · draftkings
Isaac Paredes
Isaac Paredes
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+10.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 155 games
-176 · draftkings
Sam Antonacci
Sam Antonacci
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.13
Edge+9.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 139 games
-189 · draftkings
Jose Altuve
Jose Altuve
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.19
Edge+9.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 135 games
-206 · draftkings
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.32
Edge+9.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 158 games
-242 · draftkings
Yainer Diaz
Yainer Diaz
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.23
Edge+7.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 93 games
-239 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+7.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 153 games
-140 · draftkings
Taylor Trammell
Taylor Trammell
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.89
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 92 games
-118 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+6.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 159 games
-166 · draftkings
Cam Smith
Cam Smith
HOUvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.37
Edge+5.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.53 across 150 games
-165 · draftkings
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge+4.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 155 games
-174 · draftkings
Tristan Peters
Tristan Peters
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.49
Edge+4.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 149 games
+116 · draftkings
Andrew Benintendi
Andrew Benintendi
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.66
Edge+2.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 141 games
-120 · draftkings
Lucas Spence
Lucas Spence
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 17 games
-129 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase MeidrothModel anomaly
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.6
Edge+29.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 154 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+137 · draftkings
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka MurakamiModel anomaly
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.45
Edge+22.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.99 across 127 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+130 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase MeidrothModel anomaly
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.26
Edge+20.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 154 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-151 · draftkings
Cam Smith
Cam Smith
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge−1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 150 games
-130 · draftkings
Taylor Trammell
Taylor Trammell
HOUvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.42
Edge−1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.53 across 92 games
+111 · draftkings
Tristan Peters
Tristan Peters
CWSvsHOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.19
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.57 across 149 games
+133 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
Kyle Teel
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge+0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 39 games
-135 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsHOUBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge−0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 153 games
-105 · draftkings
Jeremy Pena
CWS @ HOUBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Jeremy Pena
CWS @ HOUBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Yankee Stadium38 leansFinal · graded

BOS@NYY

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Sonny Gray
probable · awaySonny Gray
BOS
Max Fried
probable · homeMax Fried
NYY
Strikeouts
Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray
BOSvsNYYPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER5.5
Projection4.88
Edge+8.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.1 K across 29 starts
-109 · draftkings
Max Fried
Max Fried
NYYvsBOSPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
OVER5.5
Projection5.46
Edge−2.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.2 K across 20 starts
-107 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Austin Wells
Austin Wells
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.4
Edge+15.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 121 games
-129 · draftkings
George Lombard Jr.
George Lombard Jr.
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.03
Edge+12.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 42 games
-153 · draftkings
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.25
Edge+12.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 154 games
+100 · draftkings
Nick Sogard
Nick Sogard
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+11.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 65 games
-122 · draftkings
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+11.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 136 games
-140 · draftkings
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.81
Edge+11.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.71 across 136 games
-175 · draftkings
Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.67
Edge+10.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.13 across 136 games
+131 · draftkings
Trevor Story
Trevor Story
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.57
Edge+10.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.75 across 64 games
-172 · draftkings
Ryan McMahon
Ryan McMahon
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.65
Edge+10.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 115 games
+113 · draftkings
Spencer Jones
Spencer Jones
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.68
Edge+10%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.67 across 84 games
+128 · draftkings
Nick Sogard
Nick Sogard
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.29
Edge+9.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.68 across 65 games
-150 · draftkings
Willson Contreras
Willson Contreras
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.7
Edge+9.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 2.11 across 129 games
+124 · draftkings
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.95
Edge+8.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 132 games
-101 · draftkings
Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+7.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 136 games
-168 · draftkings
Adley Rutschman
Adley Rutschman
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.72
Edge+5.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 99 games
+107 · draftkings
Trevor Story
Trevor Story
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge+4.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 64 games
-146 · draftkings
Caleb Durbin
Caleb Durbin
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.37
Edge+4.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.75 across 151 games
+135 · draftkings
Austin Wells
Austin Wells
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.51 across 121 games
-102 · draftkings
Willson Contreras
Willson Contreras
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.83
Edge+3.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 129 games
-154 · draftkings
Jarren Duran
Jarren Duran
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+3.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.65 across 151 games
-155 · draftkings
Jahmai Jones
Jahmai Jones
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.38
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.36 across 92 games
-113 · draftkings
Ryan McMahon
Ryan McMahonModel anomaly
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.57
Edge+21%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 115 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-112 · draftkings
George Lombard Jr.
George Lombard Jr.Model anomaly
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.51
Edge+20.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.93 across 42 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-186 · draftkings
Jahmai Jones
Jahmai Jones
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge−2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 92 games
-147 · draftkings
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge−2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 157 games
+136 · draftkings
Adley Rutschman
Adley Rutschman
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 99 games
-195 · draftkings
Trent Grisham
Trent Grisham
NYYvsBOSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.29
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 120 games
-169 · draftkings
Jarren Duran
Jarren Duran
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge+1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 151 games
-133 · draftkings
Trent Grisham
Trent Grisham
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge−1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 120 games
-101 · draftkings
Spencer Jones
Spencer Jones
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge−1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 84 games
-146 · draftkings
Caleb Durbin
Caleb Durbin
BOSvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.77
Edge−0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 151 games
-170 · draftkings
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu
BOSvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.42
Edge+0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 157 games
+110 · draftkings
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 132 games
-217 · draftkings
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
NYYvsBOSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.99
Edge+0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 154 games
-233 · draftkings
Luis Garcia Jr.
BOS @ NYYBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Luis Garcia Jr.
BOS @ NYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Petco Park38 leansFinal · graded

CHC@SD

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres

first pitch
10:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Kevin Gausman
probable · awayKevin Gausman
CHC
Nick Pivetta
probable · homeNick Pivetta
SD
Strikeouts
Nick Pivetta
Nick Pivetta
SDvsCHCPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection5.3
Edge+5.8%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.2 K across 8 starts
-146 · draftkings
Kevin Gausman
Kevin GausmanModel anomaly
CHCvsSDPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER4.5
Projection6.07
Edge+26.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.8 K across 32 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+101 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Alex Bregman
Alex Bregman
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.37
Edge+18.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
  • SeasonSeason average 2.23 across 155 games
+119 · draftkings
Dustin Harris
Dustin Harris
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.29
Edge+17.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 43 games
+105 · draftkings
Seiya Suzuki
Seiya Suzuki
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.25
Edge+17.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.30 across 143 games
+115 · draftkings
Ethan Salas
Ethan Salas
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.71
Edge+16.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.31 across 16 games
-134 · draftkings
Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.95
Edge+15%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.60 across 153 games
+118 · draftkings
Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+14.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 108 games
-121 · draftkings
Michael Busch
Michael Busch
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+13.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 160 games
-133 · draftkings
Seiya Suzuki
Seiya Suzuki
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+12.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 143 games
-163 · draftkings
Michael Busch
Michael Busch
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.74
Edge+12.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 160 games
-170 · draftkings
Ty France
Ty France
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.22
Edge+12.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 128 games
-102 · draftkings
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.39
Edge+12.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 2.48 across 162 games
-106 · draftkings
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.64
Edge+12.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 155 games
-148 · draftkings
Ethan Salas
Ethan Salas
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge+11.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 16 games
-110 · draftkings
Dansby Swanson
Dansby Swanson
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.97
Edge+11.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 124 games
-158 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.2
Edge+10.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 157 games
-109 · draftkings
Alex Bregman
Alex Bregman
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge+7.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 155 games
-170 · draftkings
Ty France
Ty France
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+7.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 128 games
-197 · draftkings
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.8
Edge+7.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 158 games
+105 · draftkings
Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+7.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 153 games
-168 · draftkings
Dustin Harris
Dustin Harris
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 43 games
-202 · draftkings
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.73
Edge+7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 155 games
-116 · draftkings
Carson Kelly
Carson Kelly
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.52
Edge+6.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.84 across 116 games
-169 · draftkings
Nico Hoerner
Nico Hoerner
CHCvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.59
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 159 games
+119 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.33
Edge+4.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 159 games
-160 · draftkings
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.09
Edge+4.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.08 across 162 games
-206 · draftkings
Gavin Sheets
Gavin Sheets
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.34
Edge+4.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.39 across 124 games
-178 · draftkings
Dansby Swanson
Dansby Swanson
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+4.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 124 games
-127 · draftkings
Jake Cronenworth
Jake CronenworthModel anomaly
SDvsCHCBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.3
Edge+23%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 108 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-160 · draftkings
Gavin Sheets
Gavin Sheets
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge−3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 124 games
-141 · draftkings
Carson Kelly
Carson Kelly
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 116 games
-139 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 157 games
-223 · draftkings
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge−1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 158 games
+139 · draftkings
Nico Hoerner
Nico Hoerner
CHCvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge+0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 159 games
-197 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.17
Edge0%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 159 games
+169 · draftkings
Pedro Ramirez
CHC @ SDBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Pedro Ramirez
CHC @ SDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
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