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MLB model board · 2026-10-01
1 MLB games · 36 model-vs-market reads
Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.
Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.
SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 1, 7:40 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
14
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
3
model vs market · context
Small gap
15
0 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
4
no projection emitted
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomaliesDrake BaldwinATL vs PHI
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+11.5%
proj 1.32-226 · draftkings
Bryson StottPHI vs ATL
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+8.2%
proj 1.09-207 · draftkings
Michael Harris IIATL vs PHI
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+6.5%
proj 1.21-220 · draftkings
Matt OlsonATL vs PHI
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+7.2%
proj 0.98-179 · draftkings
Austin RileyATL vs PHI
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+10.7%
proj 1.52-153 · draftkings
Justin CrawfordPHI vs ATL
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+6.8%
proj 1.24-173 · draftkings
Mike YastrzemskiATL vs PHI
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+10.1%
proj 1.33-147 · draftkings
Bryce HarperPHI vs ATL
Small gapHitsOver 0.5+1.1%
proj 0.98-213 · draftkings
Filters · 36 of 36 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Truist Park36 leansFinal · graded
PHI@ATL
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
first pitch8:00 PM ET
Truist Park36 leansFinal · graded
PHI@ATL
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Drake Baldwin
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.46
Edge+16%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 138 games
-108 · draftkings
Matt Olson
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.13
Edge+14.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 162 games
+107 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.3
Edge+13.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.19 across 155 games
-103 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.32
Edge+11.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 138 games
-226 · draftkings
Bryson Stott
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.99
Edge+10.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.77 across 155 games
-101 · draftkings
Austin Riley
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.52
Edge+10.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 159 games
-153 · draftkings
Mike Yastrzemski
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+10.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.25 across 138 games
-147 · draftkings
J.T. Realmuto
PHIvsATLBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.4
Edge+9.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 122 games
+121 · draftkings
Bryson Stott
PHIvsATLBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.09
Edge+8.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 155 games
-207 · draftkings
Bryan De La Cruz
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+7.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.43 across 30 games
-145 · draftkings
Matt Olson
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+7.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 162 games
-179 · draftkings
Justin Crawford
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+6.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.39 across 144 games
-173 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.21
Edge+6.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 155 games
-220 · draftkings
Bryce Harper
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.89
Edge+5.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.08 across 161 games
-108 · draftkings
Brandon Marsh
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.48
Edge+4.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 153 games
+124 · draftkings
Sean Murphy
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+3.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 33 games
-144 · draftkings
Austin Riley
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.69
Edge+2.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 159 games
-128 · draftkings
Brandon Marsh
PHIvsATLBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.69
Edge−3.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 153 games
+123 · draftkings
Trea Turner
PHIvsATLBatterHits
UNDER1.5
Projection1.05
Edge−3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 157 games
-256 · draftkings
Alec Bohm
PHIvsATLBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge−2.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 153 games
+169 · draftkings
Sean Murphy
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.5
Edge−2.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 33 games
-111 · draftkings
Mike Yastrzemski
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.54
Edge−2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.59 across 138 games
-117 · draftkings
Bryan De La Cruz
PHIvsATLBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.55
Edge−2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 30 games
-119 · draftkings
Justin Crawford
PHIvsATLBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+1.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 144 games
-148 · draftkings
J.T. Realmuto
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
UNDER1.5
Projection1.02
Edge−1.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.54 across 122 games
-162 · draftkings
Bryce Harper
PHIvsATLBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+1.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 161 games
-213 · draftkings
Alec Bohm
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.64
Edge+0.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 153 games
-108 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsPHIBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.65
Edge+0.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 162 games
+136 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsPHIBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.34
Edge+0.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 162 games
+116 · draftkings
Trea Turner
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.85
Edge+0.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 157 games
-132 · draftkings
Kyle Schwarber
PHIvsATLBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge−0.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 156 games
+136 · draftkings
Kyle Schwarber
PHIvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.65
Edge+0.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 156 games
-110 · draftkings
Ronald Acuna Jr.
PHI @ ATLBatterHits
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
PHI @ ATLBatterHits
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ronald Acuna Jr.
PHI @ ATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
PHI @ ATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Home runs live on the Power Board
Open the MLB Power Board →
HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.