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Educational analyticsNot betting advice · research use only.
GameTime Picks
Results · one day

Saturday, October 3

Game by game

Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.

MLB · 5–3 game calls

Full MLB record →

Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →

Not in this record, but still graded below: 4 calls paused on the site or not shown before the game.

UFC · 7–4 fight winners

Full UFC record →

Model Performance:Fight winner →

  • Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong

    Final · Winner: Natalia Silva

    Verified final · official result

    CallPickOutcome
    Fight winnerNatalia SilvaWin
  • Payton Talbott vs Deiveson Figueiredo

    Final · Winner: Payton Talbott

    Verified final · official result

    CallPickOutcome
    Fight winnerPayton TalbottWin
  • Esteban Ribovics vs King Green

    Final · Winner: Esteban Ribovics

    Verified final · official result

    CallPickOutcome
    Fight winnerEsteban RibovicsWin
  • Khaos Williams vs Roberto Soldić

    Final · Winner: Roberto Soldić

    Verified final · official result

    CallPickOutcome
    Fight winnerKhaos WilliamsLoss
  • Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov

    Final · Winner: Roman Kopylov

    Verified final · official result

    CallPickOutcome
    Fight winnerAteba GautierLoss
  • Alden Coria vs Imanol Rodriguez

    Final · Winner: Imanol Rodriguez

    Verified final · official result

    CallPickOutcome
    Fight winnerAlden CoriaLoss
  • Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev

    Final · Winner: Damian Pinas

    Verified final · official result

    CallPickOutcome
    Fight winnerDamian PinasWin
  • Jacobe Smith vs Bruce Whitehead

    Final · Winner: Jacobe Smith

    Verified final · official result

    CallPickOutcome
    Fight winnerJacobe SmithWin
  • Ismail Naurdiev vs Marvin Vettori

    Final · Winner: Ismail Naurdiev

    Verified final · official result

    CallPickOutcome
    Fight winnerIsmail NaurdievWin
  • Court McGee vs Eric Nolan

    Final · Winner: Eric Nolan

    Verified final · official result

    CallPickOutcome
    Fight winnerCourt McGeeLoss
  • Marcus McGhee vs Anthony Romero

    Final · Winner: Marcus McGhee

    Verified final · official result

    CallPickOutcome
    Fight winnerMarcus McGheeWin

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.

No qualifying board was frozen for Saturday, October 3.

  • MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
  • Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
  • UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.

Product cards settled this day

Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.

  • Bank Builder · lane A

    Won
    LegOfficialGrade
    Los Angeles Dodgers to win · Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers3-5Won
    Milwaukee Brewers to win · San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers2-3Won
  • Bank Builder · lane B

    Lost
    LegOfficialGrade
    Cleveland Guardians to win · Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians3-0Lost
    Under 7 · New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays1Won
  • Moonshot · lane A

    Lost
    LegOfficialGrade
    Over 7 · Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians3Lost
    Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 · Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers3-5Won
  • Moonshot · lane B

    Lost
    LegOfficialGrade
    New York Yankees +1.5 · New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays0-1Won
    San Diego Padres to win · San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers2-3Lost

Suggested Parlays published this day

The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.

  • Low Risk

    No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.

  • Medium Risk

    No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits, Hits + Runs + RBIs) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.

  • High Risk

    No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits, Hits + Runs + RBIs) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.

  • Longshot

    No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits, Hits + Runs + RBIs) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks

Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.

MLB
40.9%
56–81 on 137
Biggest hits
  • MLBJake CronenworthOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+29.8pp edgeactual 1
  • MLBDustin HarrisOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+23.8pp edgeactual 2
  • MLBEthan SalasOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+22.5pp edgeactual 2
  • MLBXander BogaertsOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+20.4pp edgeactual 2
  • MLBMunetaka MurakamiOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+20.1pp edgeactual 5
Biggest misses
  • MLBChase MeidrothOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+28.5pp edgeactual 0
  • MLBBrayan RocchioOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+24.3pp edgeactual 0
  • MLBGeorge Lombard Jr.Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+21.3pp edgeactual 0
  • MLBMichael Harris IIOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+18.4pp edgeactual 0
  • MLBBrice TurangOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+15.9pp edgeactual 0
MLB settled games · projection vs actual
CWS @ CLE
13–2336 dec36.1%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Parker MessickStrikeoutsUnder 6.55.466+15.2%HighWin
Hagen SmithStrikeoutsUnder 1.51.764+3.2%MediumLoss
Steven KwanHitsOver 0.51.110+1.1%LowLoss
Chase DeLauterHitsOver 0.50.980+2.3%LowLoss
Miguel VargasHitsOver 0.50.911+3.6%MediumWin
Jo AdellHitsOver 0.50.960+4.2%MediumLoss
Chase MeidrothHitsOver 0.51.260+16.6%HighLoss
Randal GrichukHitsOver 0.50.840+2.4%LowLoss
Travis BazzanaHitsOver 0.50.741-0.9%LowWin
Nathaniel LoweHitsOver 0.50.741+1.1%LowWin
Brayan RocchioHitsOver 0.51.040+13.3%HighLoss
Tommy PhamHitsUnder 0.50.250+13.0%HighWin
Brenton DoyleHitsOver 0.50.940+14.0%HighLoss
Patrick BaileyHitsOver 0.50.611-0.0%LowWin
Kyle TeelHitsOver 0.50.670+3.4%MediumLoss
Braden MontgomeryHitsOver 0.51.000+18.3%HighLoss
Munetaka MurakamiHitsOver 0.50.872+13.1%HighWin
Colson MontgomeryHitsOver 0.50.522-1.7%LowWin
Steven KwanHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.830+3.2%MediumLoss
Chase DeLauterHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.970+8.6%HighLoss
Jo AdellHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.920+7.3%HighLoss
Miguel VargasHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.392+16.7%HighWin
Randal GrichukHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.970+14.4%HighLoss
Travis BazzanaHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.451+5.0%MediumLoss
Chase MeidrothHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.600+28.5%LowLoss
Nathaniel LoweHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.451+5.5%HighLoss
Brayan RocchioHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.300+24.3%LowLoss
Tommy PhamHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.50.920-1.7%LowLoss
Patrick BaileyHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.331+8.3%HighWin
Munetaka MurakamiHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.52.455+20.1%LowWin
Kyle TeelHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.971+18.1%HighWin
Brenton DoyleHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.870+22.2%LowLoss
Braden MontgomeryHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.800+18.4%HighLoss
Colson MontgomeryHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.333+9.0%HighWin
Miguel VargasTotal BasesOver 1.51.681+11.4%HighLoss
Steven KwanTotal BasesOver 1.51.330+4.3%MediumLoss
ATL @ LAD
10–1424 dec41.7%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Shohei OhtaniHitsUnder 0.50.881+0.9%LowLoss
Mookie BettsHitsOver 0.51.251+4.9%MediumWin
Drake BaldwinHitsOver 0.51.321+10.5%HighWin
Freddie FreemanHitsOver 0.50.951-1.1%LowWin
Will SmithHitsOver 0.51.070+6.9%HighLoss
Kyle TuckerHitsOver 0.51.012+5.3%HighWin
Michael Harris IIHitsOver 0.51.210+9.3%HighLoss
Matt OlsonHitsOver 0.50.980+7.2%HighLoss
Ozzie AlbiesHitsUnder 0.50.651+0.3%LowLoss
Andy PagesHitsOver 0.51.080+9.9%HighLoss
Tommy EdmanHitsOver 0.50.780+0.1%LowLoss
Austin RileyHitsOver 0.50.690-1.3%LowLoss
Max MuncyHitsOver 0.50.871+5.8%HighWin
Sean MurphyHitsOver 0.50.501-1.0%LowWin
Ha-Seong KimHitsUnder 0.50.270+2.3%LowWin
Drake BaldwinHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.461+17.2%HighLoss
Matt OlsonHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.130+14.5%HighLoss
Ozzie AlbiesHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.344+0.6%LowWin
Michael Harris IIHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.300+18.4%HighLoss
Austin RileyHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.520+6.8%HighLoss
Sean MurphyHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.073+6.0%HighWin
Ha-Seong KimHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.50.780+5.7%HighLoss
Drake BaldwinTotal BasesOver 1.52.111+20.9%LowLoss
Tarik SkubalStrikeoutsOver 6.57.257+11.6%HighWin
NYY @ TB
10–2636 dec2 void27.8%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Gerrit ColeStrikeoutsOver 5.55.985+12.9%HighLoss
Drew RasmussenStrikeoutsUnder 6.55.9110-1.0%LowLoss
Junior CamineroHitsUnder 1.50.970+0.6%LowWin
Chandler SimpsonHitsOver 0.51.240+8.8%HighLoss
Ben RiceHitsOver 0.50.990+1.1%LowLoss
Victor Mesa Jr.HitsOver 0.50.871-0.4%LowWin
Cody BellingerHitsOver 0.50.950+3.6%MediumLoss
Jonathan ArandaHitsOver 0.50.861+1.1%LowWin
Liam HicksHitsOver 0.50.881+2.0%LowWin
George Lombard Jr.HitsOver 0.51.030+13.5%HighLoss
Jazz Chisholm Jr.HitsOver 0.50.950+12.0%HighLoss
Richie PalaciosHitsOver 0.50.741+3.3%MediumWin
Spencer JonesHitsOver 0.50.680+1.7%LowLoss
Trent GrishamHitsUnder 0.50.520-1.9%LowWin
Cedric MullinsHitsOver 0.50.64—+1.4%LowVoid
Taylor WallsHitsOver 0.50.700+7.2%HighLoss
Austin WellsHitsOver 0.50.611+4.7%MediumWin
Ryan McMahonHitsOver 0.50.650+10.1%HighLoss
Junior CamineroHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.150+4.4%MediumLoss
Ben RiceHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.250+8.7%HighLoss
Chandler SimpsonHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.040+14.1%HighLoss
Victor Mesa Jr.Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.801+6.2%HighLoss
Jonathan ArandaHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.653+4.6%MediumWin
Liam HicksHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.701+7.2%HighLoss
Cody BellingerHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.950+12.1%HighLoss
George Lombard Jr.Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.52.510+21.3%LowLoss
Jazz Chisholm Jr.Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.810+13.6%HighLoss
Richie PalaciosHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.841+16.0%HighWin
Trent GrishamHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.290+3.3%MediumLoss
Spencer JonesHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.680+12.6%HighLoss
Cedric MullinsHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.33—+10.7%HighVoid
Taylor WallsHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.600+18.3%HighLoss
Austin WellsHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.401+15.5%HighWin
Ryan McMahonHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.570+21.6%LowLoss
Junior CamineroTotal BasesOver 1.51.700+3.2%MediumLoss
Ben RiceTotal BasesOver 1.52.140+14.4%HighLoss
Victor Mesa Jr.Total BasesOver 1.51.501+8.8%HighLoss
Chandler SimpsonTotal BasesOver 1.51.440+10.6%HighLoss
SD @ MIL
23–1841 dec56.1%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Jackson ChourioHitsOver 0.51.151+3.7%MediumWin
Brice TurangHitsOver 0.51.170+8.9%HighLoss
William ContrerasHitsOver 0.50.971+1.1%LowWin
Fernando Tatis Jr.HitsOver 0.51.171+8.3%HighWin
Christian YelichHitsOver 0.50.741-3.3%LowWin
Andrew VaughnHitsUnder 0.50.721-3.4%LowLoss
Ty FranceHitsOver 0.51.111+10.7%HighWin
Joey OrtizHitsOver 0.51.020+10.1%HighLoss
Manny MachadoHitsOver 0.50.712-2.2%LowWin
Cooper PrattHitsOver 0.50.940+8.9%HighLoss
Luis LaraHitsOver 0.50.710-0.9%LowLoss
Garrett MitchellHitsOver 0.50.721-0.8%LowWin
Jackson MerrillHitsOver 0.51.050+13.8%HighLoss
Xander BogaertsHitsOver 0.50.941+13.2%HighWin
Dustin HarrisHitsOver 0.51.052+18.7%HighWin
Austin HaysHitsOver 0.50.870+15.4%HighLoss
Jake CronenworthHitsOver 0.50.940+20.3%LowLoss
Ethan SalasHitsOver 0.50.811+17.7%HighWin
Jackson ChourioHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.624+11.7%HighWin
Brice TurangHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.540+15.9%HighLoss
William ContrerasHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.123+8.4%HighWin
Andrew VaughnHits + Runs + RBIsUnder 1.51.191-1.3%LowWin
Fernando Tatis Jr.Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.331+18.3%HighLoss
Christian YelichHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.791+8.1%HighLoss
Joey OrtizHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.970+14.7%HighLoss
Luis LaraHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.510+4.1%MediumLoss
Cooper PrattHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.710+9.1%HighLoss
Garrett MitchellHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.502+5.0%MediumWin
Ty FranceHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.221+18.8%HighLoss
Manny MachadoHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.802+12.2%HighWin
Xander BogaertsHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.952+20.4%LowWin
Jackson MerrillHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.52.200+18.3%HighLoss
Dustin HarrisHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.52.292+23.8%LowWin
Austin HaysHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.830+24.0%LowLoss
Jake CronenworthHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.52.301+29.8%LowWin
Ethan SalasHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.712+22.5%LowWin
Jackson ChourioTotal BasesOver 1.51.854+12.6%HighWin
William ContrerasTotal BasesOver 1.51.504+8.5%HighWin
Jacob MisiorowskiStrikeoutsUnder 7.56.716+17.3%HighWin
Robbie RayStrikeoutsOver 4.54.421+4.0%MediumLoss
Jacob MisiorowskiStrikeoutsUnder 8.56.716+15.5%HighWin
all settled dates
each record stands alone · pushes and voids are never losses · educational use only · not betting advice