Saturday, October 3
Game by game
Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.
MLB · 5–3 game calls
Full MLB record →Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →
Not in this record, but still graded below: 4 calls paused on the site or not shown before the game.
CWS @ CLE
Final · CWS 3 – 0 CLEOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 13–23 →Call Pick Outcome Winner CLE (home) Loss Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 7 Loss Run line (simulated ±1.5) CWS +1.5 Win ATL @ LAD
Final · ATL 3 – 5 LADOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 10–14 →Call Pick Outcome Winner LAD (home) Win Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick UNDER 8.5 Win Run line (simulated ±1.5) ATL +1.5 Loss NYY @ TB
Final · NYY 0 – 1 TBOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 10–26 · 2 void →Call Pick Outcome Winner TB (home) Win Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 7 Loss Run line (simulated ±1.5) NYY +1.5 Win SD @ MIL
Final · SD 2 – 3 MILOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 23–18 →Call Pick Outcome Winner SD (away) Loss Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 7 Loss Run line (simulated ±1.5) MIL +1.5 Win
UFC · 7–4 fight winners
Full UFC record →Model Performance:Fight winner →
Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong
Final · Winner: Natalia SilvaVerified final · official result
Call Pick Outcome Fight winner Natalia Silva Win Payton Talbott vs Deiveson Figueiredo
Final · Winner: Payton TalbottVerified final · official result
Call Pick Outcome Fight winner Payton Talbott Win Esteban Ribovics vs King Green
Final · Winner: Esteban RibovicsVerified final · official result
Call Pick Outcome Fight winner Esteban Ribovics Win Khaos Williams vs Roberto Soldić
Final · Winner: Roberto SoldićVerified final · official result
Call Pick Outcome Fight winner Khaos Williams Loss Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov
Final · Winner: Roman KopylovVerified final · official result
Call Pick Outcome Fight winner Ateba Gautier Loss Alden Coria vs Imanol Rodriguez
Final · Winner: Imanol RodriguezVerified final · official result
Call Pick Outcome Fight winner Alden Coria Loss Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev
Final · Winner: Damian PinasVerified final · official result
Call Pick Outcome Fight winner Damian Pinas Win Jacobe Smith vs Bruce Whitehead
Final · Winner: Jacobe SmithVerified final · official result
Call Pick Outcome Fight winner Jacobe Smith Win Ismail Naurdiev vs Marvin Vettori
Final · Winner: Ismail NaurdievVerified final · official result
Call Pick Outcome Fight winner Ismail Naurdiev Win Court McGee vs Eric Nolan
Final · Winner: Eric NolanVerified final · official result
Call Pick Outcome Fight winner Court McGee Loss Marcus McGhee vs Anthony Romero
Final · Winner: Marcus McGheeVerified final · official result
Call Pick Outcome Fight winner Marcus McGhee Win
Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff
Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.
No qualifying board was frozen for Saturday, October 3.
- MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
- Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
- UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.
Product cards settled this day
Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.
Bank Builder · lane A
WonLeg Official Grade Los Angeles Dodgers to win · Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers 3-5 Won Milwaukee Brewers to win · San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers 2-3 Won Bank Builder · lane B
LostLeg Official Grade Cleveland Guardians to win · Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians 3-0 Lost Under 7 · New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays 1 Won Moonshot · lane A
LostLeg Official Grade Over 7 · Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians 3 Lost Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 · Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers 3-5 Won Moonshot · lane B
LostLeg Official Grade New York Yankees +1.5 · New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays 0-1 Won San Diego Padres to win · San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers 2-3 Lost
Suggested Parlays published this day
The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.
Low Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Medium Risk
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits, Hits + Runs + RBIs) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
High Risk
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits, Hits + Runs + RBIs) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
Longshot
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits, Hits + Runs + RBIs) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks
Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.
- MLBJake CronenworthOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+29.8pp edgeactual 1
- MLBDustin HarrisOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+23.8pp edgeactual 2
- MLBEthan SalasOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+22.5pp edgeactual 2
- MLBXander BogaertsOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+20.4pp edgeactual 2
- MLBMunetaka MurakamiOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+20.1pp edgeactual 5
- MLBChase MeidrothOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+28.5pp edgeactual 0
- MLBBrayan RocchioOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+24.3pp edgeactual 0
- MLBGeorge Lombard Jr.Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+21.3pp edgeactual 0
- MLBMichael Harris IIOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+18.4pp edgeactual 0
- MLBBrice TurangOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+15.9pp edgeactual 0
CWS @ CLE13–2336 dec36.1%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick | Strikeouts | Under 6.5 | 5.46 | 6 | +15.2% | High | Win |
| Hagen Smith | Strikeouts | Under 1.5 | 1.76 | 4 | +3.2% | Medium | Loss |
| Steven Kwan | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.11 | 0 | +1.1% | Low | Loss |
| Chase DeLauter | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.98 | 0 | +2.3% | Low | Loss |
| Miguel Vargas | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.91 | 1 | +3.6% | Medium | Win |
| Jo Adell | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.96 | 0 | +4.2% | Medium | Loss |
| Chase Meidroth | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.26 | 0 | +16.6% | High | Loss |
| Randal Grichuk | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.84 | 0 | +2.4% | Low | Loss |
| Travis Bazzana | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 1 | -0.9% | Low | Win |
| Nathaniel Lowe | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 1 | +1.1% | Low | Win |
| Brayan Rocchio | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.04 | 0 | +13.3% | High | Loss |
| Tommy Pham | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.25 | 0 | +13.0% | High | Win |
| Brenton Doyle | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 0 | +14.0% | High | Loss |
| Patrick Bailey | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.61 | 1 | -0.0% | Low | Win |
| Kyle Teel | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.67 | 0 | +3.4% | Medium | Loss |
| Braden Montgomery | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.00 | 0 | +18.3% | High | Loss |
| Munetaka Murakami | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.87 | 2 | +13.1% | High | Win |
| Colson Montgomery | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.52 | 2 | -1.7% | Low | Win |
| Steven Kwan | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.83 | 0 | +3.2% | Medium | Loss |
| Chase DeLauter | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.97 | 0 | +8.6% | High | Loss |
| Jo Adell | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.92 | 0 | +7.3% | High | Loss |
| Miguel Vargas | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.39 | 2 | +16.7% | High | Win |
| Randal Grichuk | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.97 | 0 | +14.4% | High | Loss |
| Travis Bazzana | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.45 | 1 | +5.0% | Medium | Loss |
| Chase Meidroth | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.60 | 0 | +28.5% | Low | Loss |
| Nathaniel Lowe | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.45 | 1 | +5.5% | High | Loss |
| Brayan Rocchio | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.30 | 0 | +24.3% | Low | Loss |
| Tommy Pham | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 0.92 | 0 | -1.7% | Low | Loss |
| Patrick Bailey | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.33 | 1 | +8.3% | High | Win |
| Munetaka Murakami | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 2.45 | 5 | +20.1% | Low | Win |
| Kyle Teel | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.97 | 1 | +18.1% | High | Win |
| Brenton Doyle | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.87 | 0 | +22.2% | Low | Loss |
| Braden Montgomery | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.80 | 0 | +18.4% | High | Loss |
| Colson Montgomery | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.33 | 3 | +9.0% | High | Win |
| Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.68 | 1 | +11.4% | High | Loss |
| Steven Kwan | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.33 | 0 | +4.3% | Medium | Loss |
ATL @ LAD10–1424 dec41.7%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.88 | 1 | +0.9% | Low | Loss |
| Mookie Betts | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.25 | 1 | +4.9% | Medium | Win |
| Drake Baldwin | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.32 | 1 | +10.5% | High | Win |
| Freddie Freeman | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.95 | 1 | -1.1% | Low | Win |
| Will Smith | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.07 | 0 | +6.9% | High | Loss |
| Kyle Tucker | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.01 | 2 | +5.3% | High | Win |
| Michael Harris II | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.21 | 0 | +9.3% | High | Loss |
| Matt Olson | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.98 | 0 | +7.2% | High | Loss |
| Ozzie Albies | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.65 | 1 | +0.3% | Low | Loss |
| Andy Pages | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.08 | 0 | +9.9% | High | Loss |
| Tommy Edman | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.78 | 0 | +0.1% | Low | Loss |
| Austin Riley | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.69 | 0 | -1.3% | Low | Loss |
| Max Muncy | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.87 | 1 | +5.8% | High | Win |
| Sean Murphy | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.50 | 1 | -1.0% | Low | Win |
| Ha-Seong Kim | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.27 | 0 | +2.3% | Low | Win |
| Drake Baldwin | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.46 | 1 | +17.2% | High | Loss |
| Matt Olson | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.13 | 0 | +14.5% | High | Loss |
| Ozzie Albies | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.34 | 4 | +0.6% | Low | Win |
| Michael Harris II | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.30 | 0 | +18.4% | High | Loss |
| Austin Riley | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.52 | 0 | +6.8% | High | Loss |
| Sean Murphy | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.07 | 3 | +6.0% | High | Win |
| Ha-Seong Kim | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 0.78 | 0 | +5.7% | High | Loss |
| Drake Baldwin | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 2.11 | 1 | +20.9% | Low | Loss |
| Tarik Skubal | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 | 7.25 | 7 | +11.6% | High | Win |
NYY @ TB10–2636 dec2 void27.8%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 | 5.98 | 5 | +12.9% | High | Loss |
| Drew Rasmussen | Strikeouts | Under 6.5 | 5.91 | 10 | -1.0% | Low | Loss |
| Junior Caminero | Hits | Under 1.5 | 0.97 | 0 | +0.6% | Low | Win |
| Chandler Simpson | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.24 | 0 | +8.8% | High | Loss |
| Ben Rice | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.99 | 0 | +1.1% | Low | Loss |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.87 | 1 | -0.4% | Low | Win |
| Cody Bellinger | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.95 | 0 | +3.6% | Medium | Loss |
| Jonathan Aranda | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.86 | 1 | +1.1% | Low | Win |
| Liam Hicks | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.88 | 1 | +2.0% | Low | Win |
| George Lombard Jr. | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.03 | 0 | +13.5% | High | Loss |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.95 | 0 | +12.0% | High | Loss |
| Richie Palacios | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 1 | +3.3% | Medium | Win |
| Spencer Jones | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.68 | 0 | +1.7% | Low | Loss |
| Trent Grisham | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.52 | 0 | -1.9% | Low | Win |
| Cedric Mullins | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.64 | — | +1.4% | Low | Void |
| Taylor Walls | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.70 | 0 | +7.2% | High | Loss |
| Austin Wells | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.61 | 1 | +4.7% | Medium | Win |
| Ryan McMahon | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.65 | 0 | +10.1% | High | Loss |
| Junior Caminero | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.15 | 0 | +4.4% | Medium | Loss |
| Ben Rice | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.25 | 0 | +8.7% | High | Loss |
| Chandler Simpson | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.04 | 0 | +14.1% | High | Loss |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.80 | 1 | +6.2% | High | Loss |
| Jonathan Aranda | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.65 | 3 | +4.6% | Medium | Win |
| Liam Hicks | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.70 | 1 | +7.2% | High | Loss |
| Cody Bellinger | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.95 | 0 | +12.1% | High | Loss |
| George Lombard Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 2.51 | 0 | +21.3% | Low | Loss |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.81 | 0 | +13.6% | High | Loss |
| Richie Palacios | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.84 | 1 | +16.0% | High | Win |
| Trent Grisham | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.29 | 0 | +3.3% | Medium | Loss |
| Spencer Jones | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.68 | 0 | +12.6% | High | Loss |
| Cedric Mullins | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.33 | — | +10.7% | High | Void |
| Taylor Walls | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.60 | 0 | +18.3% | High | Loss |
| Austin Wells | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.40 | 1 | +15.5% | High | Win |
| Ryan McMahon | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.57 | 0 | +21.6% | Low | Loss |
| Junior Caminero | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.70 | 0 | +3.2% | Medium | Loss |
| Ben Rice | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 2.14 | 0 | +14.4% | High | Loss |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.50 | 1 | +8.8% | High | Loss |
| Chandler Simpson | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.44 | 0 | +10.6% | High | Loss |
SD @ MIL23–1841 dec56.1%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.15 | 1 | +3.7% | Medium | Win |
| Brice Turang | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.17 | 0 | +8.9% | High | Loss |
| William Contreras | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.97 | 1 | +1.1% | Low | Win |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.17 | 1 | +8.3% | High | Win |
| Christian Yelich | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 1 | -3.3% | Low | Win |
| Andrew Vaughn | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.72 | 1 | -3.4% | Low | Loss |
| Ty France | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.11 | 1 | +10.7% | High | Win |
| Joey Ortiz | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.02 | 0 | +10.1% | High | Loss |
| Manny Machado | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.71 | 2 | -2.2% | Low | Win |
| Cooper Pratt | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 0 | +8.9% | High | Loss |
| Luis Lara | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.71 | 0 | -0.9% | Low | Loss |
| Garrett Mitchell | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.72 | 1 | -0.8% | Low | Win |
| Jackson Merrill | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.05 | 0 | +13.8% | High | Loss |
| Xander Bogaerts | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 1 | +13.2% | High | Win |
| Dustin Harris | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.05 | 2 | +18.7% | High | Win |
| Austin Hays | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.87 | 0 | +15.4% | High | Loss |
| Jake Cronenworth | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 0 | +20.3% | Low | Loss |
| Ethan Salas | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.81 | 1 | +17.7% | High | Win |
| Jackson Chourio | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.62 | 4 | +11.7% | High | Win |
| Brice Turang | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.54 | 0 | +15.9% | High | Loss |
| William Contreras | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.12 | 3 | +8.4% | High | Win |
| Andrew Vaughn | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 1.5 | 1.19 | 1 | -1.3% | Low | Win |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.33 | 1 | +18.3% | High | Loss |
| Christian Yelich | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.79 | 1 | +8.1% | High | Loss |
| Joey Ortiz | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.97 | 0 | +14.7% | High | Loss |
| Luis Lara | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.51 | 0 | +4.1% | Medium | Loss |
| Cooper Pratt | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.71 | 0 | +9.1% | High | Loss |
| Garrett Mitchell | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.50 | 2 | +5.0% | Medium | Win |
| Ty France | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.22 | 1 | +18.8% | High | Loss |
| Manny Machado | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.80 | 2 | +12.2% | High | Win |
| Xander Bogaerts | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.95 | 2 | +20.4% | Low | Win |
| Jackson Merrill | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 2.20 | 0 | +18.3% | High | Loss |
| Dustin Harris | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 2.29 | 2 | +23.8% | Low | Win |
| Austin Hays | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.83 | 0 | +24.0% | Low | Loss |
| Jake Cronenworth | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 2.30 | 1 | +29.8% | Low | Win |
| Ethan Salas | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.71 | 2 | +22.5% | Low | Win |
| Jackson Chourio | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.85 | 4 | +12.6% | High | Win |
| William Contreras | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.50 | 4 | +8.5% | High | Win |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Strikeouts | Under 7.5 | 6.71 | 6 | +17.3% | High | Win |
| Robbie Ray | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 | 4.42 | 1 | +4.0% | Medium | Loss |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Strikeouts | Under 8.5 | 6.71 | 6 | +15.5% | High | Win |
