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MLB model board · 2026-10-03

4 MLB games · 143 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 3, 6:28 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
69
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
17
model vs market · context
Small gap
32
12 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
13
no projection emitted
Strikeouts5 gap ≥ 5 pp·8 totalHits28 gap ≥ 5 pp·72 totalHits + Runs + RBIs36 gap ≥ 5 pp·63 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Drake Baldwin
Drake BaldwinATL vs LAD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+10.5%
proj 1.32-237 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase MeidrothCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+16.6%
proj 1.26-176 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler SimpsonTB vs NYY
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+8.8%
proj 1.24-230 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson MerrillSD vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+18.3%
proj 2.2-150 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie PalaciosTB vs NYY
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+16%
proj 1.84-162 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden MontgomeryCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+18.4%
proj 1.8-142 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
Kyle TeelCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+18.1%
proj 1.97-144 · draftkings
Jacob Misiorowski
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL vs SD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
StrikeoutsUnder 8.5+15.5%
proj 6.71-156 · fanduel
Filters · 143 of 143 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Progressive Field38 leansFinal · graded

CWS@CLE

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians

first pitch
1:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Hagen Smith
probable · awayHagen Smith
CWS
Parker Messick
probable · homeParker Messick
CLE
Strikeouts
Parker Messick
Parker Messick
CLEvsCWSPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER6.5
Projection5.46
Edge+15.2%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.0 K across 32 starts
-107 · draftkings
Hagen Smith
Hagen Smith
CWSvsCLEPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection1.76
Edge+3.2%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 1.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 2.3 K across 18 starts
+148 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Braden Montgomery
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.8
Edge+18.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.71 across 92 games
-142 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+18.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 92 games
-117 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
Kyle Teel
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.97
Edge+18.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 39 games
-144 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.39
Edge+16.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
  • SeasonSeason average 2.18 across 159 games
+104 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase Meidroth
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.26
Edge+16.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 154 games
-176 · draftkings
Randal Grichuk
Randal Grichuk
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+14.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.45 across 112 games
+119 · draftkings
Brenton Doyle
Brenton Doyle
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+14%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 73 games
-126 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan Rocchio
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+13.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 153 games
-148 · draftkings
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+13.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 127 games
-116 · draftkings
Tommy Pham
Tommy Pham
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.25
Edge+13%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.20 across 15 games
+106 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 153 games
-133 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+8.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 133 games
-102 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+8.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 104 games
-158 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.92
Edge+7.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 159 games
-101 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.45
Edge+5.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 123 games
+130 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.45
Edge+5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 124 games
+127 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+4.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 159 games
-184 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+3.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 159 games
-185 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
Kyle Teel
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge+3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 39 games
-120 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.83
Edge+3.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 150 games
-121 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase MeidrothModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.6
Edge+28.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 154 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+130 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan RocchioModel anomaly
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.3
Edge+24.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 153 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+134 · draftkings
Brenton Doyle
Brenton DoyleModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.87
Edge+22.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.34 across 73 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-143 · draftkings
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka MurakamiModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.45
Edge+20.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.99 across 127 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-154 · draftkings
Randal Grichuk
Randal Grichuk
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 112 games
-171 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+2.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 133 games
-195 · draftkings
Tommy Pham
Tommy Pham
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 15 games
-178 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 153 games
-111 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 150 games
-262 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 123 games
-150 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge−0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 124 games
-156 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge0%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 104 games
-123 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
CWS @ CLEBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Angel Martinez
CWS @ CLEBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
CWS @ CLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Angel Martinez
CWS @ CLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium28 leansFinal · graded

ATL@LAD

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers

first pitch
4:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
probable · awayTBD
ATL
Tarik Skubal
probable · homeTarik Skubal
LAD
Strikeouts
Tarik Skubal
Tarik Skubal
LADvsATLPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER6.5
Projection7.25
Edge+11.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 7.2 K across 26 starts
-105 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.3
Edge+18.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.19 across 155 games
+119 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.46
Edge+17.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
  • SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 138 games
-103 · draftkings
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.13
Edge+14.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 162 games
+108 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.32
Edge+10.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 138 games
-237 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+9.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 133 games
-172 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.21
Edge+9.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 155 games
-194 · draftkings
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+7.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 162 games
-179 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+6.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-210 · draftkings
Austin Riley
Austin Riley
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.52
Edge+6.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 159 games
+129 · draftkings
Sean Murphy
Sean Murphy
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 33 games
-130 · draftkings
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+5.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 148 games
-147 · draftkings
Ha-Seong Kim
Ha-Seong Kim
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge+5.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 45 games
-115 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+5.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 153 games
-194 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.25
Edge+4.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 123 games
-244 · draftkings
Ha-Seong Kim
Ha-Seong Kim
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.27
Edge+2.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.33 across 45 games
-140 · draftkings
Austin Riley
Austin Riley
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.69
Edge−1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 159 games
-150 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge−1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 153 games
-226 · draftkings
Sean Murphy
Sean Murphy
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.5
Edge−1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 33 games
-104 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 135 games
+199 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.34
Edge+0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 162 games
+117 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.65
Edge+0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 162 games
+134 · draftkings
Tommy Edman
Tommy Edman
LADvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge+0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 83 games
-156 · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
ATL @ LADBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
ATL @ LADBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ronald Acuna Jr.
ATL @ LADBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ronald Acuna Jr.
ATL @ LADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
ATL @ LADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Tropicana Field38 leansFinal · graded

NYY@TB

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

first pitch
6:30 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Gerrit Cole
probable · awayGerrit Cole
NYY
Drew Rasmussen
probable · homeDrew Rasmussen
TB
Strikeouts
Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole
NYYvsTBPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER5.5
Projection5.98
Edge+12.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.0 K across 22 starts
+121 · draftkings
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
TBvsNYYPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
UNDER6.5
Projection5.91
Edge−1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.8 K across 30 starts
-147 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Taylor Walls
Taylor Walls
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.6
Edge+18.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 118 games
-136 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.84
Edge+16%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 118 games
-162 · draftkings
Austin Wells
Austin Wells
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.4
Edge+15.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 121 games
-131 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.04
Edge+14.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 148 games
+100 · draftkings
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.81
Edge+13.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.71 across 136 games
-162 · draftkings
George Lombard Jr.
George Lombard Jr.
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.03
Edge+13.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 42 games
-149 · draftkings
Spencer Jones
Spencer Jones
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.68
Edge+12.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.67 across 84 games
-156 · draftkings
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.95
Edge+12.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 132 games
+115 · draftkings
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+12%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 136 games
-139 · draftkings
Cedric Mullins
Cedric Mullins
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+10.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.45 across 133 games
-148 · draftkings
Ryan McMahon
Ryan McMahon
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.65
Edge+10.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 115 games
+113 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+8.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 148 games
-230 · draftkings
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.25
Edge+8.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 154 games
-118 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.7
Edge+7.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 142 games
+114 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor Walls
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+7.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
-109 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.8
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 73 games
+101 · draftkings
Austin Wells
Austin Wells
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.51 across 121 games
-102 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.65
Edge+4.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.09 across 155 games
+106 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+4.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 162 games
-137 · draftkings
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+3.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 132 games
-190 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
-137 · draftkings
Trent Grisham
Trent Grisham
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.29
Edge+3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 120 games
-158 · draftkings
Ryan McMahon
Ryan McMahonModel anomaly
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.57
Edge+21.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 115 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-109 · draftkings
George Lombard Jr.
George Lombard Jr.Model anomaly
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.51
Edge+21.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.93 across 42 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-178 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 142 games
-177 · draftkings
Trent Grisham
Trent Grisham
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge−1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 120 games
-104 · draftkings
Spencer Jones
Spencer Jones
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 84 games
-131 · draftkings
Cedric Mullins
Cedric Mullins
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.64
Edge+1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 133 games
-123 · draftkings
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.99
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 154 games
-222 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 155 games
-181 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection0.97
Edge+0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 162 games
-267 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge−0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-194 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
NYY @ TBBatterHits
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Luis Garcia Jr.
NYY @ TBBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
NYY @ TBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Luis Garcia Jr.
NYY @ TBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
American Family Field39 leansFinal · graded

SD@MIL

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers

first pitch
8:30 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Robbie Ray
probable · awayRobbie Ray
SD
Jacob Misiorowski
probable · homeJacob Misiorowski
MIL
Strikeouts
Jacob Misiorowski
Jacob Misiorowski
MILvsSDPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER7.5
Projection6.71
Edge+17.3%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 8.4 K across 30 starts
+121 · draftkings
Jacob Misiorowski
Jacob Misiorowski
MILvsSDPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER8.5
Projection6.71
Edge+15.5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 8.4 K across 30 starts
-156 · fanduel
Robbie Ray
Robbie Ray
SDvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection4.42
Edge+4%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.5 K across 31 starts
+126 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Ty France
Ty France
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.22
Edge+18.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 128 games
+127 · draftkings
Dustin Harris
Dustin Harris
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+18.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 43 games
-123 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection2.2
Edge+18.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 157 games
-150 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.33
Edge+18.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 159 games
+108 · draftkings
Ethan Salas
Ethan Salas
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge+17.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 16 games
+115 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.54
Edge+15.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.39 across 150 games
-112 · draftkings
Austin Hays
Austin Hays
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+15.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 38 games
-106 · draftkings
Joey Ortiz
Joey Ortiz
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+14.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 119 games
+117 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+13.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 157 games
-132 · draftkings
Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+13.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 153 games
-130 · draftkings
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.8
Edge+12.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 158 games
+129 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.62
Edge+11.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.54 across 127 games
-130 · draftkings
Ty France
Ty France
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+10.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 128 games
-169 · draftkings
Joey Ortiz
Joey Ortiz
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge+10.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 119 games
-166 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.71
Edge+9.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.82 across 72 games
+120 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+8.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 72 games
-154 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+8.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 150 games
-204 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.12
Edge+8.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 147 games
-109 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+8.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 159 games
-197 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.79
Edge+8.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 117 games
+109 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.5
Edge+5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 144 games
+122 · draftkings
Luis Lara
Luis Lara
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.51
Edge+4.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.72 across 57 games
+117 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+3.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 127 games
-228 · draftkings
Jake Cronenworth
Jake CronenworthModel anomaly
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.3
Edge+29.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 108 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-121 · draftkings
Austin Hays
Austin HaysModel anomaly
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.83
Edge+24%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.55 across 38 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-121 · draftkings
Dustin Harris
Dustin HarrisModel anomaly
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.29
Edge+23.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 43 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-147 · draftkings
Ethan Salas
Ethan SalasModel anomaly
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.71
Edge+22.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.31 across 16 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-104 · draftkings
Xander Bogaerts
Xander BogaertsModel anomaly
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.95
Edge+20.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.60 across 153 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-156 · draftkings
Jake Cronenworth
Jake CronenworthModel anomaly
SDvsMILBatterHits
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+20.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 108 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+103 · draftkings
Andrew Vaughn
Andrew Vaughn
MILvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge−3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 104 games
+131 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge−3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 117 games
-179 · draftkings
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SDvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge−2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 158 games
-160 · draftkings
Andrew Vaughn
Andrew Vaughn
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.19
Edge−1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 104 games
-140 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 147 games
-204 · draftkings
Luis Lara
Luis Lara
MILvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge−0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 57 games
-154 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge−0.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 144 games
-149 · draftkings
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