UFC · Fight winner
60 forecasts published · 60 measured · 0 not final · 0 void or not measurable. Model: ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d.
0.244Brier score (n 60), lower is better
0.718log loss, lower is better
65.5% → 65.0%average forecast → how often it happened
0.081calibration error (ECE)
39–21pick record: the pick we published
Calibration
When we said a chance in each band, how often did it happen? A well-calibrated forecast lands close to its own number. Small bands are noisy.
| We said | Forecasts | Average forecast | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 24 | 55.5% | 62.5% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 64.9% | 68.8% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 75.2% | 75.0% |
| 80–90% | 2 | 82.8% | 50.0% |
| 90–100% | 2 | 94.0% | 0.0% |
Latest forecasts
The 60 most recent of 60. Download all 60 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 Jacobe Smith vs Bruce Whitehead | Jacobe Smith vs Bruce Whitehead | 72.8% · Jacobe Smith wins published 2026-10-03 15:06Z | book 88.7% | Happened | Brier 0.074 |
| 2026-10-03 Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev | Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev | 77.1% · Damian Pinas wins published 2026-10-03 15:06Z | book 81.8% | Happened | Brier 0.052 |
| 2026-10-03 Esteban Ribovics vs King Green | Esteban Ribovics vs King Green | 59.8% · Esteban Ribovics wins published 2026-10-03 15:06Z | book 65.1% | Happened | Brier 0.161 |
| 2026-10-03 Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong | Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong | 71.8% · Natalia Silva wins published 2026-10-03 15:06Z | book 64.5% | Happened | Brier 0.079 |
| 2026-10-03 Ismail Naurdiev vs Marvin Vettori | Ismail Naurdiev vs Marvin Vettori | 50.1% · Ismail Naurdiev wins published 2026-10-03 15:06Z | book 55.8% | Happened | Brier 0.249 |
| 2026-10-03 Khaos Williams vs Roberto Soldić | Khaos Williams vs Roberto Soldić | 67.1% · Khaos Williams wins published 2026-10-03 15:06Z | book 34.3% | Did not happen | Brier 0.450 |
| 2026-10-03 Payton Talbott vs Deiveson Figueiredo | Payton Talbott vs Deiveson Figueiredo | 76.3% · Payton Talbott wins published 2026-10-03 15:06Z | book 84.7% | Happened | Brier 0.056 |
| 2026-10-03 Marcus McGhee vs Anthony Romero | Marcus McGhee vs Anthony Romero | 74.3% · Marcus McGhee wins published 2026-10-03 15:06Z | book 80.9% | Happened | Brier 0.066 |
| 2026-10-03 Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov | Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov | 83.1% · Ateba Gautier wins published 2026-10-03 15:06Z | book 67.6% | Did not happen | Brier 0.691 |
| 2026-10-03 Alden Coria vs Imanol Rodriguez | Alden Coria vs Imanol Rodriguez | 59.1% · Alden Coria wins published 2026-10-03 15:06Z | book 43.7% | Did not happen | Brier 0.349 |
| 2026-10-03 Court McGee vs Eric Nolan | Court McGee vs Eric Nolan | 97.6% · Court McGee wins published 2026-10-03 15:06Z | book 33.4% | Did not happen | Brier 0.953 |
| 2026-09-26 Luis Hernandez vs Sedriques Dumas | Luis Hernandez vs Sedriques Dumas | 53.4% · Luis Hernandez wins published 2026-09-26 14:55Z | book 68.2% | Happened | Brier 0.217 |
| 2026-09-26 Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek | Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek | 59.0% · Rodolfo Vieira wins published 2026-09-26 14:55Z | book 59.8% | Happened | Brier 0.168 |
| 2026-09-26 Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura | Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura | 55.2% · Brady Hiestand wins published 2026-09-26 14:55Z | book 24.0% | Happened | Brier 0.201 |
| 2026-09-26 Yazmin Jauregui vs Vanessa Demopoulos | Yazmin Jauregui vs Vanessa Demopoulos | 72.5% · Yazmin Jauregui wins published 2026-09-26 14:55Z | book 86.8% | Happened | Brier 0.076 |
| 2026-09-26 Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards | Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards | 58.2% · Rodolfo Bellato wins published 2026-09-26 14:55Z | book 61.6% | Did not happen | Brier 0.338 |
| 2026-09-26 Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos | Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos | 82.4% · Raul Rosas Jr. wins published 2026-09-26 14:55Z | book 57.7% | Happened | Brier 0.031 |
| 2026-09-26 Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon | Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon | 59.5% · Montel Jackson wins published 2026-09-26 14:55Z | book 66.9% | Happened | Brier 0.164 |
| 2026-09-26 Ailin Perez vs Norma Dumont | Ailin Perez vs Norma Dumont | 55.8% · Ailin Perez wins published 2026-09-26 14:55Z | book 59.7% | Happened | Brier 0.195 |
| 2026-09-18 Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain | Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain | 55.5% · Marlon Vera wins published 2026-09-18 17:00Z | book 34.2% | Happened | Brier 0.198 |
| 2026-09-18 Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja | Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja | 73.7% · Joshua Van wins published 2026-09-18 17:00Z | book 55.1% | Happened | Brier 0.069 |
| 2026-09-18 Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura | Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura | 65.4% · Casey O'Neill wins published 2026-09-18 17:00Z | book 66.5% | Happened | Brier 0.120 |
| 2026-09-18 Dooho Choi vs Patricio Pitbull | Dooho Choi vs Patricio Pitbull | 76.9% · Dooho Choi wins published 2026-09-18 17:00Z | book 70.7% | Did not happen | Brier 0.591 |
| 2026-09-18 Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira | Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira | 67.2% · Edmen Shahbazyan wins published 2026-09-18 17:00Z | book 61.0% | Happened | Brier 0.108 |
| 2026-09-18 Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo Menifield | Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo Menifield | 74.5% · Iwo Baraniewski wins published 2026-09-18 17:00Z | book 68.3% | Did not happen | Brier 0.554 |
| 2026-09-18 Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz | Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz | 75.8% · Ryan Gandra wins published 2026-09-18 17:00Z | book 80.9% | Happened | Brier 0.058 |
| 2026-09-18 Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy | Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy | 56.5% · Arman Tsarukyan wins published 2026-09-18 17:00Z | book 74.2% | Happened | Brier 0.190 |
| 2026-09-18 Joanderson Brito vs Giga Chikadze | Joanderson Brito vs Giga Chikadze | 65.8% · Joanderson Brito wins published 2026-09-18 17:00Z | book 76.8% | Happened | Brier 0.117 |
| 2026-09-18 Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne | Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne | 55.8% · Tai Tuivasa wins published 2026-09-18 17:00Z | book 15.9% | Did not happen | Brier 0.312 |
| 2026-09-12 Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales | Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales | 59.3% · Brandon Moreno wins published 2026-09-12 13:31Z | book 48.9% | Happened | Brier 0.166 |
| 2026-09-12 David Martinez vs Dan Ige | David Martinez vs Dan Ige | 65.1% · David Martinez wins published 2026-09-12 13:31Z | book 78.3% | Happened | Brier 0.122 |
| 2026-09-12 Édgar Cháirez vs Tim Elliott | Édgar Cháirez vs Tim Elliott | 77.6% · Édgar Cháirez wins published 2026-09-12 13:31Z | book 64.7% | Did not happen | Brier 0.602 |
| 2026-09-12 Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes | Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes | 59.4% · Waldo Cortes Acosta wins published 2026-09-12 13:31Z | book 63.6% | Did not happen | Brier 0.352 |
| 2026-09-12 Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos | Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos | 64.0% · Yousri Belgaroui wins published 2026-09-12 13:31Z | book 85.9% | Happened | Brier 0.129 |
| 2026-09-12 Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov | Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov | 78.7% · Ignacio Bahamondes wins published 2026-09-12 13:31Z | book 81.2% | Happened | Brier 0.045 |
| 2026-09-12 Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso | Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso | 56.7% · Manon Fiorot wins published 2026-09-12 13:31Z | book 70.2% | Did not happen | Brier 0.322 |
| 2026-09-05 Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann | Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann | 66.5% · Mario Pinto wins published 2026-09-05 13:37Z | book 74.6% | Happened | Brier 0.112 |
| 2026-09-05 Nathaniel Wood vs Pavel Andrusca | Nathaniel Wood vs Pavel Andrusca | 75.0% · Nathaniel Wood wins published 2026-09-05 13:37Z | book 71.8% | Did not happen | Brier 0.563 |
| 2026-09-05 Klaudia Syguła vs Nora Cornolle | Klaudia Syguła vs Nora Cornolle | 60.1% · Klaudia Syguła wins published 2026-09-05 13:37Z | book 51.2% | Did not happen | Brier 0.361 |
| 2026-09-05 Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas | Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas | 56.6% · Oumar Sy wins published 2026-09-05 13:37Z | book 68.0% | Did not happen | Brier 0.321 |
| 2026-09-05 Farés Ziam vs Axel Sola | Farés Ziam vs Axel Sola | 61.4% · Farés Ziam wins published 2026-09-05 13:37Z | book 58.9% | Did not happen | Brier 0.377 |
| 2026-09-05 Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek | Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek | 52.0% · Kurtis Campbell wins published 2026-09-05 13:37Z | book 76.6% | Happened | Brier 0.230 |
| 2026-09-05 Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano | Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano | 69.4% · Daniil Donchenko wins published 2026-09-05 13:37Z | book 67.4% | Happened | Brier 0.094 |
| 2026-09-05 Felipe Lima vs Morgan Charrière | Felipe Lima vs Morgan Charrière | 54.9% · Felipe Lima wins published 2026-09-05 13:37Z | book 65.6% | Happened | Brier 0.203 |
| 2026-08-28 Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas | Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas | 73.4% · Rei Tsuruya wins published 2026-08-28 22:58Z | book 85.0% | Happened | Brier 0.071 |
| 2026-08-28 Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong | Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong | 52.5% · Umar Nurmagomedov wins published 2026-08-28 22:58Z | book 81.8% | Did not happen | Brier 0.276 |
| 2026-08-28 Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan | Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan | 69.6% · Denise Gomes wins published 2026-08-28 22:58Z | book 42.7% | Happened | Brier 0.092 |
| 2026-08-28 Julia Polastri vs Jingnan Xiong | Julia Polastri vs Jingnan Xiong | 74.5% · Julia Polastri wins published 2026-08-28 22:58Z | book 68.2% | Happened | Brier 0.065 |
| 2026-08-28 Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar | Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar | 61.1% · Andre Lima wins published 2026-08-28 22:58Z | book 70.1% | Happened | Brier 0.151 |
| 2026-08-28 Sean Woodson vs Jack Jenkins | Sean Woodson vs Jack Jenkins | 66.6% · Sean Woodson wins published 2026-08-28 22:58Z | book 57.6% | Happened | Brier 0.111 |
| 2026-08-22 Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves | Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves | 61.3% · Carli Judice wins published 2026-08-22 17:27Z | book 81.8% | Happened | Brier 0.150 |
| 2026-08-22 Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed | Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed | 78.5% · Shanelle Dyer wins published 2026-08-22 17:27Z | book 86.1% | Happened | Brier 0.046 |
| 2026-08-22 Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey | Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey | 51.1% · Wes Schultz wins published 2026-08-22 17:27Z | book 38.5% | Did not happen | Brier 0.261 |
| 2026-08-22 Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast | Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast | 56.3% · Chris Padilla wins published 2026-08-22 17:27Z | book 51.6% | Happened | Brier 0.191 |
| 2026-08-22 Gauge Young vs Stan Dorsainvil | Gauge Young vs Stan Dorsainvil | 90.4% · Gauge Young wins published 2026-08-22 17:27Z | book 60.4% | Did not happen | Brier 0.817 |
| 2026-08-22 MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones | MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones | 52.0% · MarQuel Mederos wins published 2026-08-22 17:27Z | book 25.4% | Happened | Brier 0.230 |
| 2026-08-22 Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev | Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev | 66.1% · Kennedy Nzechukwu wins published 2026-08-22 17:27Z | book 45.4% | Did not happen | Brier 0.437 |
| 2026-08-22 Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder | Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder | 51.2% · Roman Dolidze wins published 2026-08-22 17:27Z | book 23.1% | Did not happen | Brier 0.262 |
| 2026-08-22 Lerryan Douglas vs Jamall Emmers | Lerryan Douglas vs Jamall Emmers | 61.4% · Lerryan Douglas wins published 2026-08-22 17:27Z | book 76.6% | Did not happen | Brier 0.377 |
| 2026-08-22 Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez | Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez | 53.1% · Gregory Rodrigues wins published 2026-08-22 17:27Z | book 35.6% | Happened | Brier 0.220 |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.