Monday, September 21
Game by game
Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.
MLB · 3–3 game calls
Full MLB record →Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →
Not in this record, but still graded below: 3 calls paused on the site or not shown before the game.
TOR @ BAL
Final · TOR 3 – 4 BALOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 17–19 · 5 void →Call Pick Outcome Winner TOR (away) Loss Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick UNDER 7.5 Win Run line (simulated ±1.5) BAL +1.5 Win WSH @ DET
Final · WSH 2 – 9 DETOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 14–24 · 6 void →Call Pick Outcome Winner WSH (away) Loss Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick UNDER 8 Loss Run line (simulated ±1.5) DET +1.5 Win MIN @ SF
Final · MIN 2 – 5 SFOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 17–14 · 12 void →Call Pick Outcome Winner MIN (away) Loss Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick UNDER 8 Win Run line (simulated ±1.5) SF +1.5 Win
NFL · 1–0 game winners
Full NFL record →Model Performance:Winner →
NYG @ LAR
Final · NYG 6 – 28 LAROfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · official final score
Call Pick Outcome Winner LAR (home) Win Player ranges · 24 of 35 finals landed inside the printed range
A coverage record, not wins and losses: a range is “inside” when the player's final landed within it as printed.
Player Stat Range Final Inside? Kyren Williams · LAR Receptions 0–5 2 Inside Kyren Williams · LAR Receiving yards 0–51 12 Inside Kyren Williams · LAR Rushing yards 11–118 85 Inside Cam Skattebo · NYG Receptions 0–3 4 Outside Cam Skattebo · NYG Receiving yards 0–38 19 Inside Cam Skattebo · NYG Rushing yards 10–113 36 Inside Isaiah Likely · NYG Receptions 2–12 5 Inside Isaiah Likely · NYG Receiving yards 28–126 33 Inside Malik Nabers · NYG Receptions 2–11 1 Outside Malik Nabers · NYG Receiving yards 25–124 1 Outside Davante Adams · LAR Receptions 1–8 8 Inside Davante Adams · LAR Receiving yards 15–96 195 Outside Devin Singletary · NYG Receptions 0–5 0 Inside Devin Singletary · NYG Receiving yards 0–48 0 Inside Devin Singletary · NYG Rushing yards 2–61 9 Inside Tyrone Tracy Jr. · NYG Receptions 0–4 0 Inside Tyrone Tracy Jr. · NYG Receiving yards 0–40 0 Inside Tyrone Tracy Jr. · NYG Rushing yards 4–81 0 Outside Blake Corum · LAR Rushing yards 6–99 79 Inside Jaxson Dart · NYG Rushing yards 3–81 0 Outside Jaxson Dart · NYG Passing yards 116–348 20 Outside Malachi Fields · NYG Receptions 0–6 2 Inside Malachi Fields · NYG Receiving yards 4–66 30 Inside Colby Parkinson · LAR Receptions 0–5 2 Inside Colby Parkinson · LAR Receiving yards 0–57 15 Inside Theo Johnson · NYG Receptions 0–5 0 Inside Theo Johnson · NYG Receiving yards 0–60 0 Inside Tyler Higbee · LAR Receptions 0–4 — Not graded Tyler Higbee · LAR Receiving yards 0–48 — Not graded Ronnie Rivers · LAR Rushing yards 0–32 — Not graded Darnell Mooney · NYG Receptions 0–3 2 Inside Darnell Mooney · NYG Receiving yards 0–41 48 Outside Gunner Olszewski · NYG Receptions 0–3 — Not graded Gunner Olszewski · NYG Receiving yards 0–37 — Not graded Jalin Hyatt · NYG Receptions 0–3 — Not graded Jalin Hyatt · NYG Receiving yards 0–35 — Not graded Terrance Ferguson · LAR Receptions 0–3 6 Outside Terrance Ferguson · LAR Receiving yards 0–34 54 Outside Jameis Winston · NYG Rushing yards 0–21 1 Inside Jameis Winston · NYG Passing yards 63–242 111 Inside Matthew Stafford · LAR Rushing yards 0–18 -1 Outside Matthew Stafford · LAR Passing yards 121–367 327 Inside
Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff
Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.
No qualifying board was frozen for Monday, September 21.
- MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
- Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
- UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.
Product cards settled this day
Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.
Bank Builder · lane A
WonLeg Official Grade Baltimore Orioles +1.5 · Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles 3-4 Won San Francisco Giants +1.5 · Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants 2-5 Won Bank Builder · lane B
LostLeg Official Grade Washington Nationals +1.5 · Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers 2-9 Lost Baltimore Orioles to win · Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles 3-4 Won Moonshot · lane A
LostLeg Official Grade Detroit Tigers to win · Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers 2-9 Won Minnesota Twins -1.5 · Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants 2-5 Lost Moonshot · lane B
No card placedNo card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Suggested Parlays published this day
The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.
Medium Risk · +123
LostLeg Price Grade Brett Bateman · TOR · Hits Over 0.5 -212 Lost Riley Greene · DET · Hits Over 0.5 -194 Lost High Risk · +577
LostLeg Price Grade Brett Harris · SF · Hits Under 0.5 -102 Lost Keibert Ruiz · WSH · Hits Over 0.5 -146 Lost Colton Cowser · BAL · Hits Over 0.5 +103 Lost Longshot · +609
LostLeg Price Grade Alejandro Kirk · TOR · Hits Over 0.5 -248 Won Kazuma Okamoto · TOR · Hits Over 0.5 -163 Won Ben Malgeri · DET · Hits Under 0.5 +104 Lost Hao-Yu Lee · DET · Hits Over 0.5 -187 Won Low Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks
Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.
Biggest hits
- MLBPete AlonsoOver 1.5 Total Bases+16.1pp edgeactual 8
- MLBJacob YoungOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+15.4pp edgeactual 2
- MLBSpencer TorkelsonOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+12.6pp edgeactual 4
- MLBHao-Yu LeeOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+11.6pp edgeactual 5
- MLBAlejandro KirkOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+10.9pp edgeactual 2
Biggest misses
- MLBRiley GreeneOver 1.5 Total Bases+22.1pp edgeactual 0
- MLBShane BazOver 3.5 Strikeouts+9.4pp edgeactual 2
- MLBCJ AbramsOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+8.6pp edgeactual 0
- MLBDrew GilbertUnder 0.5 Hits+7.6pp edgeactual 3
- MLBDaylen LileOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+5.4pp edgeactual 0
MLB settled games · projection vs actual
TOR @ BAL17–1936 dec5 void47.2%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Yesavage | Strikeouts | Over 3.5 | 4.66 | 3 | +25.4% | Low | Loss |
| Shane Baz | Strikeouts | Over 3.5 | 4.66 | 2 | +9.4% | High | Loss |
| Alejandro Kirk | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.15 | 1 | +6.5% | High | Win |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.99 | — | -0.6% | Low | Void |
| George Springer | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.91 | 2 | -1.5% | Low | Win |
| Ernie Clement | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.70 | 0 | +3.7% | Medium | Win |
| Brett Bateman | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.25 | 0 | +10.6% | High | Loss |
| Nathan Lukes | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.86 | 1 | -0.9% | Low | Win |
| Pete Alonso | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.89 | 2 | +0.6% | Low | Win |
| Gunnar Henderson | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 3 | +3.2% | Medium | Win |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 1 | +3.7% | Medium | Win |
| Kazuma Okamoto | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.88 | 1 | +5.3% | High | Win |
| Coby Mayo | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.92 | 0 | +7.4% | High | Loss |
| Samuel Basallo | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.66 | 0 | -2.2% | Low | Loss |
| Dylan Beavers | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.72 | 0 | +1.9% | Low | Loss |
| Jeremiah Jackson | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.58 | 0 | -2.6% | Low | Loss |
| Josh Smith | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.50 | 0 | -0.7% | Low | Win |
| Leody Taveras | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.65 | — | +1.6% | Low | Void |
| Colton Cowser | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 0 | +11.9% | High | Loss |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.69 | — | -0.4% | Low | Void |
| Alejandro Kirk | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.19 | 2 | +10.9% | High | Win |
| George Springer | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.82 | 3 | +3.5% | Medium | Win |
| Brett Bateman | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.45 | 1 | +21.0% | Low | Loss |
| Pete Alonso | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.17 | 7 | +10.1% | High | Win |
| Ernie Clement | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 1.5 | 1.25 | 0 | +0.1% | Low | Win |
| Nathan Lukes | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.57 | 3 | +2.4% | Low | Win |
| Coby Mayo | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.98 | 0 | +11.1% | High | Loss |
| Gunnar Henderson | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.67 | 5 | +5.1% | High | Win |
| Kazuma Okamoto | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.95 | 1 | +11.6% | High | Loss |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.08 | 1 | +12.6% | High | Loss |
| Samuel Basallo | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.48 | 0 | +4.7% | Medium | Loss |
| Dylan Beavers | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.66 | 0 | +9.9% | High | Loss |
| Jeremiah Jackson | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.34 | 0 | +4.7% | Medium | Loss |
| Josh Smith | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.01 | 0 | +1.2% | Low | Loss |
| Leody Taveras | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.38 | — | +8.7% | High | Void |
| Colton Cowser | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.19 | 0 | +11.0% | High | Loss |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.42 | — | +4.5% | Medium | Void |
| Alejandro Kirk | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.70 | 1 | +11.5% | High | Loss |
| Pete Alonso | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.94 | 8 | +16.1% | High | Win |
| George Springer | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.41 | 2 | +5.5% | High | Win |
| Ernie Clement | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.00 | 0 | -2.6% | Low | Loss |
WSH @ DET14–2438 dec6 void36.8%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daylen Lile | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.87 | 0 | -0.7% | Low | Win |
| Dillon Dingler | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.81 | 2 | +0.5% | Low | Loss |
| Gleyber Torres | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.84 | 0 | -3.2% | Low | Win |
| CJ Abrams | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.95 | 0 | +0.6% | Low | Loss |
| Max Clark | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.08 | — | +7.1% | High | Void |
| Kevin McGonigle | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.13 | — | +9.6% | High | Void |
| Riley Greene | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.32 | 0 | +14.9% | High | Loss |
| Hao-Yu Lee | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 3 | +4.6% | Medium | Win |
| James Wood | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.90 | 1 | +1.4% | Low | Win |
| Dylan Crews | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.87 | 1 | +2.7% | Medium | Win |
| Brady House | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.72 | 0 | -0.1% | Low | Loss |
| Jorbit Vivas | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.82 | 0 | +4.8% | Medium | Loss |
| Spencer Torkelson | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.93 | 1 | +9.8% | High | Win |
| Keibert Ruiz | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.97 | 0 | +11.4% | High | Loss |
| John Peck | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.63 | 0 | -3.1% | Low | Loss |
| Abimelec Ortiz | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.49 | 0 | +1.7% | Low | Win |
| Ben Malgeri | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.46 | 2 | +2.9% | Medium | Loss |
| Jacob Young | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.65 | 2 | +3.7% | Medium | Win |
| Dillon Dingler | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.82 | 4 | -0.7% | Low | Win |
| Gleyber Torres | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.64 | 1 | -2.3% | Low | Loss |
| Daylen Lile | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.07 | 0 | +5.4% | High | Loss |
| Kevin McGonigle | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.33 | — | +13.0% | High | Void |
| Max Clark | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.46 | — | +16.2% | High | Void |
| Riley Greene | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.74 | 1 | +19.4% | High | Loss |
| James Wood | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.80 | 2 | +2.9% | Medium | Win |
| CJ Abrams | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.10 | 0 | +8.6% | High | Loss |
| Hao-Yu Lee | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.09 | 5 | +11.6% | High | Win |
| Spencer Torkelson | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.97 | 4 | +12.6% | High | Win |
| Dylan Crews | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.73 | 1 | +8.9% | High | Loss |
| Ben Malgeri | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 1.5 | 1.03 | 6 | -0.5% | Low | Loss |
| Brady House | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.55 | 0 | +6.6% | High | Loss |
| John Peck | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.27 | 0 | +0.1% | Low | Loss |
| Abimelec Ortiz | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.10 | 0 | -2.4% | Low | Loss |
| Jorbit Vivas | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.50 | 0 | +7.1% | High | Loss |
| Keibert Ruiz | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.69 | 0 | +9.0% | High | Loss |
| Jacob Young | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.51 | 2 | +15.4% | High | Win |
| Daylen Lile | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.68 | 0 | +6.8% | High | Loss |
| Dillon Dingler | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.40 | 3 | +3.4% | Medium | Win |
| James Wood | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.43 | 1 | +5.3% | High | Loss |
| CJ Abrams | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.74 | 0 | +11.5% | High | Loss |
| Kevin McGonigle | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.77 | — | +15.1% | High | Void |
| Riley Greene | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 2.19 | 0 | +22.1% | Low | Loss |
| Gleyber Torres | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.09 | 0 | -1.9% | Low | Loss |
| Max Clark | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.65 | — | +13.9% | High | Void |
MIN @ SF17–1431 dec12 void54.8%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blade Tidwell | Strikeouts | Under 3.5 | 3.20 | 4 | +11.7% | High | Loss |
| Zebby Matthews | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 | 4.76 | 9 | +0.5% | Low | Win |
| Brooks Lee | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.08 | 1 | +1.4% | Low | Win |
| Luke Keaschall | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.08 | 0 | +4.1% | Medium | Loss |
| Ryan Jeffers | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.64 | 0 | +6.2% | High | Win |
| Turner Hill | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.68 | — | +4.9% | Medium | Void |
| Josh Bell | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.08 | — | +6.0% | High | Void |
| Jonah Cox | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 1 | +1.2% | Low | Win |
| Kody Clemens | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.84 | 0 | -2.2% | Low | Loss |
| Drew Gilbert | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.50 | 3 | +7.6% | High | Loss |
| Royce Lewis | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.77 | — | -0.2% | Low | Void |
| Walker Jenkins | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.86 | 1 | +2.2% | Low | Win |
| Christian Koss | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.79 | 1 | +2.3% | Low | Win |
| Shay Whitcomb | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.58 | — | +0.4% | Low | Void |
| Emmanuel Rodriguez | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.67 | 1 | -0.4% | Low | Win |
| Drew Cavanaugh | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.49 | 0 | +1.7% | Low | Win |
| Scott Bandura | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.43 | 0 | +3.5% | Medium | Win |
| Brett Harris | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.37 | 2 | +5.6% | High | Loss |
| Ben Ross | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.38 | — | +0.5% | Low | Void |
| Brooks Lee | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.04 | 3 | +4.2% | Medium | Win |
| Luke Keaschall | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.85 | 0 | +2.4% | Low | Loss |
| Ryan Jeffers | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 1.5 | 1.32 | 0 | +0.9% | Low | Win |
| Josh Bell | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.14 | — | +9.6% | High | Void |
| Kody Clemens | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.78 | 0 | +2.6% | Medium | Loss |
| Turner Hill | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 1.5 | 1.44 | — | -2.6% | Low | Void |
| Jonah Cox | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.95 | 1 | +10.2% | High | Loss |
| Drew Gilbert | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 1.5 | 1.31 | 8 | -3.3% | Low | Loss |
| Royce Lewis | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.40 | — | -0.0% | Low | Void |
| Shay Whitcomb | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 1.5 | 1.06 | — | +1.4% | Low | Void |
| Walker Jenkins | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.83 | 1 | +9.9% | High | Loss |
| Christian Koss | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.46 | 2 | +4.2% | Medium | Win |
| Emmanuel Rodriguez | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.33 | 3 | +0.3% | Low | Win |
| Drew Cavanaugh | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 1.5 | 0.87 | 0 | +2.6% | Medium | Win |
| Brett Harris | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 0.5 | 0.55 | 4 | +4.5% | Medium | Loss |
| Scott Bandura | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 0.5 | 0.71 | 0 | -1.0% | Low | Win |
| Ben Ross | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.00 | — | +7.1% | High | Void |
| Brooks Lee | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.46 | 4 | +2.6% | Medium | Win |
| Kody Clemens | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.56 | 0 | +5.6% | High | Loss |
| Luke Keaschall | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.32 | 0 | +0.4% | Low | Loss |
| Ryan Jeffers | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.05 | 0 | -3.5% | Low | Loss |
| Josh Bell | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.68 | — | +10.7% | High | Void |
| Turner Hill | Total Bases | Under 1.5 | 1.03 | — | -2.7% | Low | Void |
| Jonah Cox | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.14 | 2 | +1.6% | Low | Win |