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MLB model board · 2026-09-21

3 MLB games · 113 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDSep 21, 6:49 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
41
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
20
model vs market · context
Small gap
47
2 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
3
no projection emitted
Strikeouts2 gap ≥ 5 pp·5 totalHits14 gap ≥ 5 pp·54 totalHits + Runs + RBIs25 gap ≥ 5 pp·54 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Riley Greene
Riley GreeneDET vs WSH
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+14.9%
proj 1.32-194 · draftkings
Brett Bateman
Brett BatemanTOR vs BAL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+10.6%
proj 1.25-212 · draftkings
Alejandro Kirk
Alejandro KirkTOR vs BAL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+6.5%
proj 1.15-248 · draftkings
Kevin McGonigle
Kevin McGonigleDET vs WSH
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+9.6%
proj 1.13-205 · draftkings
Luke Keaschall
Luke KeaschallMIN vs SF
Gap 2.5–5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+4.1%
proj 1.08-247 · draftkings
Max Clark
Max ClarkDET vs WSH
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+7.1%
proj 1.08-207 · draftkings
Josh Bell
Josh BellMIN vs SF
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+6.1%
proj 1.08-217 · draftkings
Brooks Lee
Brooks LeeMIN vs SF
Small gap
HitsOver 0.5+1.4%
proj 1.08-266 · draftkings
Filters · 113 of 113 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Oriole Park at Camden Yards38 leansFinal · graded

TOR@BAL

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

first pitch
6:35 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Trey Yesavage
probable · awayTrey Yesavage
TOR
Shane Baz
probable · homeShane Baz
BAL
Strikeouts
Shane Baz
Shane Baz
BALvsTORPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER3.5
Projection4.66
Edge+9.4%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.1 K across 30 starts
-150 · draftkings
Trey Yesavage
Trey YesavageModel anomaly
TORvsBALPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER3.5
Projection4.66
Edge+25.4%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.1 K across 18 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+132 · fanduel
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
BALvsTORBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.08
Edge+12.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.96 across 54 games
+113 · draftkings
Colton Cowser
Colton Cowser
BALvsTORBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+11.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.58 across 128 games
+103 · draftkings
Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto
TORvsBALBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.95
Edge+11.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.99 across 149 games
+111 · draftkings
Coby Mayo
Coby Mayo
BALvsTORBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.98
Edge+11.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.75 across 122 games
+105 · draftkings
Colton Cowser
Colton Cowser
BALvsTORBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.19
Edge+11%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 128 games
-126 · draftkings
Alejandro Kirk
Alejandro Kirk
TORvsBALBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.19
Edge+10.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 74 games
-117 · draftkings
Brett Bateman
Brett Bateman
TORvsBALBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.25
Edge+10.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.30 across 37 games
-212 · draftkings
Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso
BALvsTORBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.17
Edge+10.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.25 across 156 games
-109 · draftkings
Dylan Beavers
Dylan Beavers
BALvsTORBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.66
Edge+9.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.52 across 97 games
+127 · draftkings
Leody Taveras
Leody Taveras
BALvsTORBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.38
Edge+8.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.55 across 130 games
-161 · draftkings
Coby Mayo
Coby Mayo
BALvsTORBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge+7.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 122 games
-160 · draftkings
Alejandro Kirk
Alejandro Kirk
TORvsBALBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+6.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 74 games
-248 · draftkings
Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto
TORvsBALBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+5.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 149 games
-163 · draftkings
Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson
BALvsTORBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.67
Edge+5.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.83 across 153 games
+107 · draftkings
Samuel Basallo
Samuel Basallo
BALvsTORBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.48
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.57 across 111 games
+123 · draftkings
Jeremiah Jackson
Jeremiah Jackson
BALvsTORBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.34
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.48 across 87 games
-166 · draftkings
Ernie Clement
Ernie Clement
TORvsBALBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+3.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 152 games
+166 · draftkings
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
BALvsTORBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+3.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 54 games
-167 · draftkings
George Springer
George Springer
TORvsBALBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.82
Edge+3.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.83 across 120 games
-116 · draftkings
Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson
BALvsTORBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+3.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 153 games
-179 · draftkings
Brett Bateman
Brett BatemanModel anomaly
TORvsBALBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.45
Edge+21%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
  • SeasonSeason average 2.30 across 37 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-109 · draftkings
Jeremiah Jackson
Jeremiah Jackson
BALvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.58
Edge−2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 87 games
-129 · draftkings
Nathan Lukes
Nathan Lukes
TORvsBALBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.57
Edge+2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 117 games
+103 · draftkings
Samuel Basallo
Samuel Basallo
BALvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.66
Edge−2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 111 games
-148 · draftkings
Dylan Beavers
Dylan Beavers
BALvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 97 games
-140 · draftkings
Leody Taveras
Leody Taveras
BALvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.65
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 130 games
-124 · draftkings
George Springer
George Springer
TORvsBALBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge−1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 120 games
-231 · draftkings
Josh Smith
Josh Smith
TORvsBALBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.11 across 71 games
-166 · draftkings
Nathan Lukes
Nathan Lukes
TORvsBALBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge−0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 117 games
-204 · draftkings
Josh Smith
Josh Smith
TORvsBALBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.5
Edge−0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.59 across 71 games
-103 · draftkings
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TORvsBALBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.99
Edge−0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 141 games
-237 · draftkings
Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso
BALvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.89
Edge+0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 156 games
-194 · draftkings
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TORvsBALBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.69
Edge−0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 141 games
-119 · draftkings
Ernie Clement
Ernie Clement
TORvsBALBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.25
Edge+0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.70 across 152 games
-126 · draftkings
Andres Gimenez
TOR @ BALBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Andres Gimenez
TOR @ BALBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Comerica Park37 leansFinal · graded

WSH@DET

Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers

first pitch
6:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
DJ Herz
probable · awayDJ Herz
WSH
River Ryan
probable · homeRiver Ryan
DET
Strikeouts
DJ Herz
DJ Herz
WSHvsDETPitcherStrikeouts
Sample too small
Line3.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Riley Greene
Riley Greene
DETvsWSHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.74
Edge+19.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.30
  • SeasonSeason average 2.17 across 135 games
-113 · draftkings
Max Clark
Max Clark
DETvsWSHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.46
Edge+16.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
  • SeasonSeason average 2.02 across 46 games
-113 · draftkings
Jacob Young
Jacob Young
WSHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.51
Edge+15.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.63 across 127 games
-140 · draftkings
Riley Greene
Riley Greene
DETvsWSHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.32
Edge+14.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 135 games
-194 · draftkings
Kevin McGonigle
Kevin McGonigle
DETvsWSHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.33
Edge+13%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
  • SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 151 games
-118 · draftkings
Spencer Torkelson
Spencer Torkelson
DETvsWSHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+12.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.65 across 153 games
+110 · draftkings
Hao-Yu Lee
Hao-Yu Lee
DETvsWSHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.09
Edge+11.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 103 games
-104 · draftkings
Keibert Ruiz
Keibert Ruiz
WSHvsDETBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+11.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 97 games
-146 · draftkings
Spencer Torkelson
Spencer Torkelson
DETvsWSHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge+9.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 153 games
-147 · draftkings
Kevin McGonigle
Kevin McGonigle
DETvsWSHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.13
Edge+9.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 151 games
-205 · draftkings
Keibert Ruiz
Keibert Ruiz
WSHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.69
Edge+9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 97 games
-172 · draftkings
Dylan Crews
Dylan Crews
WSHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.73
Edge+9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 101 games
+114 · draftkings
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
WSHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.1
Edge+8.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 146 games
-109 · draftkings
Max Clark
Max Clark
DETvsWSHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+7.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 46 games
-207 · draftkings
Jorbit Vivas
Jorbit Vivas
WSHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.5
Edge+7.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 114 games
+133 · draftkings
Brady House
Brady House
WSHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.55
Edge+6.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 89 games
+125 · draftkings
Daylen Lile
Daylen Lile
WSHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.07
Edge+5.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.05 across 154 games
-122 · draftkings
Jorbit Vivas
Jorbit Vivas
WSHvsDETBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.82
Edge+4.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 114 games
-149 · draftkings
Hao-Yu Lee
Hao-Yu Lee
DETvsWSHBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+4.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 103 games
-187 · draftkings
Jacob Young
Jacob Young
WSHvsDETBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.65
Edge+3.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 127 games
-114 · draftkings
Ben Malgeri
Ben Malgeri
DETvsWSHBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.46
Edge+2.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.52 across 46 games
+104 · draftkings
James Wood
James Wood
WSHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.8
Edge+2.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.40 across 129 games
-110 · draftkings
Dylan Crews
Dylan Crews
WSHvsDETBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+2.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 101 games
-179 · draftkings
Gleyber Torres
Gleyber Torres
DETvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge−3.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 94 games
+161 · draftkings
John Peck
John Peck
DETvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.63
Edge−3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 15 games
-145 · draftkings
Abimelec Ortiz
Abimelec Ortiz
WSHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.1
Edge−2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.29 across 41 games
+133 · draftkings
Gleyber Torres
Gleyber Torres
DETvsWSHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.64
Edge−2.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 94 games
-123 · draftkings
Abimelec Ortiz
Abimelec Ortiz
WSHvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.49
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.59 across 41 games
+105 · draftkings
James Wood
James Wood
WSHvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.9
Edge+1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 129 games
-186 · draftkings
Dillon Dingler
Dillon Dingler
DETvsWSHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.82
Edge−0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 141 games
-128 · draftkings
Daylen Lile
Daylen Lile
WSHvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge−0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 154 games
+185 · draftkings
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
WSHvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 146 games
-214 · draftkings
Dillon Dingler
Dillon Dingler
DETvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge+0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 141 games
+169 · draftkings
Ben Malgeri
Ben Malgeri
DETvsWSHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.03
Edge−0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.15 across 46 games
-162 · draftkings
Brady House
Brady House
WSHvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge−0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 89 games
-152 · draftkings
John Peck
John Peck
DETvsWSHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.27
Edge+0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.33 across 15 games
+125 · draftkings
Oracle Park38 leansFinal · graded

MIN@SF

Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants

first pitch
9:45 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Zebby Matthews
probable · awayZebby Matthews
MIN
Blade Tidwell
probable · homeBlade Tidwell
SF
Strikeouts
Blade Tidwell
Blade Tidwell
SFvsMINPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER3.5
Projection3.2
Edge+11.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 2.6 K across 16 starts
+126 · draftkings
Zebby Matthews
Zebby Matthews
MINvsSFPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
OVER4.5
Projection4.76
Edge+0.5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.9 K across 22 starts
-120 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Jonah Cox
Jonah Cox
SFvsMINBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.95
Edge+10.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 46 games
-101 · draftkings
Walker Jenkins
Walker Jenkins
MINvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.83
Edge+9.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.67 across 18 games
+116 · draftkings
Josh Bell
Josh Bell
MINvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.14
Edge+9.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.07 across 149 games
-113 · draftkings
Drew Gilbert
Drew Gilbert
SFvsMINBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.5
Edge+7.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 125 games
+136 · draftkings
Ben Ross
Ben Ross
MINvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+7.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 8 games
-144 · draftkings
Ryan Jeffers
Ryan Jeffers
MINvsSFBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.64
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 88 games
+168 · draftkings
Josh Bell
Josh Bell
MINvsSFBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+6.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 149 games
-217 · draftkings
Brett Harris
Brett Harris
SFvsMINBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.37
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.33 across 12 games
-102 · draftkings
Turner Hill
Turner Hill
SFvsMINBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge+4.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 29 games
+165 · draftkings
Brett Harris
Brett Harris
SFvsMINBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.55
Edge+4.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.50 across 12 games
+128 · draftkings
Brooks Lee
Brooks Lee
MINvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.04
Edge+4.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.99 across 148 games
-131 · draftkings
Christian Koss
Christian Koss
SFvsMINBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.46
Edge+4.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.31 across 61 games
+123 · draftkings
Luke Keaschall
Luke Keaschall
MINvsSFBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+4.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 146 games
-247 · draftkings
Scott Bandura
Scott Bandura
SFvsMINBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.43
Edge+3.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.43
  • SeasonSeason average 0.43 across 7 games
+101 · draftkings
Kody Clemens
Kody Clemens
MINvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.78
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.96 across 137 games
-113 · draftkings
Drew Cavanaugh
Drew Cavanaugh
SFvsMINBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.87
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 53 games
-183 · draftkings
Drew Gilbert
Drew Gilbert
SFvsMINBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.31
Edge−3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.33 across 125 games
-137 · draftkings
Jung Hoo Lee
Jung Hoo Lee
SFvsMINBatterHits
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection0.97
Edge−2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 143 games
+202 · draftkings
Jung Hoo Lee
Jung Hoo Lee
SFvsMINBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.75
Edge−2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 143 games
-137 · draftkings
Turner Hill
Turner Hill
SFvsMINBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.44
Edge−2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.69 across 29 games
-117 · draftkings
Luke Keaschall
Luke Keaschall
MINvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.85
Edge+2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 146 games
-130 · draftkings
Christian Koss
Christian Koss
SFvsMINBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.79
Edge+2.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 61 games
-157 · draftkings
Walker Jenkins
Walker Jenkins
MINvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 18 games
-163 · draftkings
Kody Clemens
Kody Clemens
MINvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge−2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 137 games
-210 · draftkings
Drew Cavanaugh
Drew Cavanaugh
SFvsMINBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.49
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.58 across 53 games
+105 · draftkings
Shay Whitcomb
Shay Whitcomb
SFvsMINBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.06
Edge+1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 39 games
-151 · draftkings
Brooks Lee
Brooks Lee
MINvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 148 games
-266 · draftkings
Jonah Cox
Jonah Cox
SFvsMINBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 46 games
-216 · draftkings
Scott Bandura
Scott Bandura
SFvsMINBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge−1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.71
  • SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 7 games
+127 · draftkings
Ryan Jeffers
Ryan Jeffers
MINvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.32
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 2.05 across 88 games
-110 · draftkings
Ben Ross
Ben Ross
MINvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.38
Edge+0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.38
  • SeasonSeason average 0.38 across 8 games
-123 · draftkings
Emmanuel Rodriguez
Emmanuel Rodriguez
MINvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge−0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.67
  • SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 9 games
-140 · draftkings
Shay Whitcomb
Shay Whitcomb
SFvsMINBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.58
Edge+0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.46 across 39 games
+118 · draftkings
Emmanuel Rodriguez
Emmanuel Rodriguez
MINvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.33
Edge+0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.33
  • SeasonSeason average 1.33 across 9 games
+124 · draftkings
Royce Lewis
Royce Lewis
MINvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.77
Edge−0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 120 games
-168 · draftkings
Royce Lewis
Royce Lewis
MINvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.4
Edge0%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.70 across 120 games
+110 · draftkings
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HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.

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