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Regular season · week 2 · Monday, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET

New York GiantsatLos Angeles RamsEXPERIMENTAL

SoFi Stadium

New York GiantsLos Angeles RamsSaved on this device

Research matchup

Indoors — roofed stadium, no weather to report — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

NYG @ LAR

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

NYG 21 — 30 LAR

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

NYG 27.9% · LAR 69.6%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.5%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 34 and 68

LAR winning margin

a minus means NYG wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -8 and 25

Model details

From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-09-17T14:17:00Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

NYG 21 — 30 LARwin chance NYG 27.9% · LAR 69.6%total 51 (34–68)margin +9

NYG

Likely TD scorers

Cam Skattebo 45.0% · available role uncertain

Isaiah Likely 44.5% · available role uncertain

Malik Nabers 36.1% · available role uncertain

Passing

Jaxson Dart 211 pass yds (116–348) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Cam Skattebo 43 rush yds (10–113) · available role uncertain

Tyrone Tracy Jr. 24 rush yds (4–81) · questionable

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Darnell Mooney 2.1 rec · 29.5 yds/g at ATL

Calvin Austin III 2.3 rec · 25.3 yds/g at PIT

Isaiah Likely 2.5 rec · 27.9 yds/g at BAL

Receiving leaders

Isaiah Likely 6 rec · 65 yds · available role uncertain

Malik Nabers 5 rec · 62 yds · available role uncertain

Malachi Fields 3 rec · 26 yds · available role uncertain

LAR

Likely TD scorers

Kyren Williams 48.5% · available role uncertain

Puka Nacua 43.0% · available role uncertain

Davante Adams 33.7% · available role uncertain

Passing

Matthew Stafford 222 pass yds (121–367) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Kyren Williams 44 rush yds (11–118) · available role uncertain

Blake Corum 32 rush yds (6–99) · available role uncertain

Receiving leaders

Puka Nacua 7 rec · 82 yds · available role uncertain

Davante Adams 4 rec · 44 yds · available role uncertain

Kyren Williams 2 rec · 18 yds · available role uncertain

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
New York Giants	9	21	33
Los Angeles Rams	18	30	41

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (NYG – LAR)	Chance
24–27	0.64%
20–23	0.50%
17–30	0.50%
17–27	0.50%
17–20	0.49%
17–34	0.48%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

Margin	This game	Last 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 3	8.5%	14.2%
Decided by exactly 7	5.5%	8.3%
Decided by exactly 10	4.9%	4.2%
Decided by exactly 14	4.4%	4.4%
Any of the four	23.4%	31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

NYG touchdowns

2.4

LAR touchdowns

3.3

NYG field goals

1.6

LAR field goals

2.2

Tied after regulation

3.2%

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

No current sportsbook capture covers this game.

Player projections · 21 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.

Player	Team	Availability	Receptions (10th–90th)	Rec yards (10th–90th)	TD chance
Puka Nacua	LAR	role uncertain	7 (2–13)	82 (37–156)	43.0%
Isaiah Likely	NYG	role uncertain	6 (2–12)	65 (28–126)	44.5%
Malik Nabers	NYG	role uncertain	5 (2–11)	62 (25–124)	36.1%
Davante Adams	LAR	role uncertain	4 (1–8)	44 (15–96)	33.7%
Malachi Fields	NYG	role uncertain	3 (0–6)	26 (4–66)	19.5%
Kyren Williams	LAR	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	18 (0–51)	48.5%
Devin Singletary	NYG	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	17 (0–48)	32.4%
Colby Parkinson	LAR	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	21 (0–57)	18.3%
Theo Johnson	NYG	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	22 (0–60)	17.3%
Tyler Higbee	LAR	role uncertain	2 (0–4)	16 (0–48)	12.9%
Cam Skattebo	NYG	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	10 (0–38)	45.0%
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	NYG	questionable	1 (0–4)	12 (0–40)	28.7%
Darnell Mooney	NYG	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	11 (0–41)	10.0%
Gunner Olszewski	NYG	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	9 (0–37)	9.2%
Jalin Hyatt	NYG	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	8 (0–35)	9.2%
Terrance Ferguson	LAR	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	7 (0–34)	9.1%

New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above

Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.

Player	Team	Availability	Last club	Per game (prior club)
Darnell Mooney WR	NYG	active uncertain	ATL · 15g	2.1 rec · 29.5 yds
Calvin Austin III WR	NYG	active uncertain	PIT · 15g	2.3 rec · 25.3 yds
Isaiah Likely TE	NYG	active uncertain	BAL · 11g	2.5 rec · 27.9 yds

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 21 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

48.5% Kyren Williams · LAR · available role uncertain
45.0% Cam Skattebo · NYG · available role uncertain
44.5% Isaiah Likely · NYG · available role uncertain
43.0% Puka Nacua · LAR · available role uncertain
36.1% Malik Nabers · NYG · available role uncertain
33.7% Davante Adams · LAR · available role uncertain

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations: 10,000
input hash: 36391ef1235233ed
generated: 2026-09-17T14:17:00Z
kickoff: 2026-09-22T00:15Z
state: UPCOMING

Player-family model provenance (4 published)

Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.