NYG @ LAR
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams, Mon, Sep 21. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Monday, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · final
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was NYG 6 – 28 LAR, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: NYG 6 – 28 LAR
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 22, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
New York Giants · 6
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 111Forecast 133 (63–242) · in range | 1Forecast 1 (0–21) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 7.1% |
| Cam Skattebo | 0 | 36Forecast 43 (10–113) · in range | 4Forecast 1 (0–3) · outside range | 19Forecast 10 (0–38) · in range | NoForecast 45.0% |
| Darnell Mooney | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 48Forecast 11 (0–41) · outside range | NoForecast 10.0% |
| Isaiah Likely | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 6 (2–12) · in range | 33Forecast 65 (28–126) · in range | NoForecast 44.5% |
| Malachi Fields | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (0–6) · in range | 30Forecast 26 (4–66) · in range | NoForecast 19.5% |
| Jaxson Dart | 20Forecast 211 (116–348) · outside range | 0Forecast 23 (3–81) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 23.6% |
| Devin Singletary | 0 | 9Forecast 16 (2–61) · in range | 0Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 0Forecast 17 (0–48) · in range | NoForecast 32.4% |
| Najee Harris | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Malik Nabers | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 5 (2–11) · outside range | 1Forecast 62 (25–124) · outside range | NoForecast 36.1% |
| Theo Johnson | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 0Forecast 22 (0–60) · in range | NoForecast 17.3% |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 0 | 0Forecast 24 (4–81) · outside range | 0Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 0Forecast 12 (0–40) · in range | NoForecast 28.7% |
| Gunner OlszewskiNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 9 (0–37) | —Forecast 9.2% |
| Jalin HyattNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 8 (0–35) | —Forecast 9.2% |
| Player lines added up | 131 | 52 | 14 | 131 |
20 other New York Giants players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Los Angeles Rams · 28
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 327Forecast 222 (121–367) · in range | -1Forecast 1 (0–18) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 5.0% |
| Davante Adams | 0 | 0 | 8Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 195Forecast 44 (15–96) · outside range | YesForecast 33.7% |
| Kyren Williams | 0 | 85Forecast 44 (11–118) · in range | 2Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 12Forecast 18 (0–51) · in range | YesForecast 48.5% |
| Blake Corum | 0 | 79Forecast 32 (6–99) · in range | 1 | 13 | NoForecast 26.6% |
| Terrance Ferguson | 0 | 0 | 6Forecast 1 (0–3) · outside range | 54Forecast 7 (0–34) · outside range | YesForecast 9.1% |
| Tutu Atwell | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | No |
| Colby Parkinson | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 15Forecast 21 (0–57) · in range | NoForecast 18.3% |
| Konata Mumpfield | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | No |
| Davis Allen | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | No |
| Ronnie RiversNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 3 (0–32) | — | — | —Forecast 10.6% |
| Tyler HigbeeNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–4) | —Forecast 16 (0–48) | —Forecast 12.9% |
| Player lines added up | 327 | 163 | 22 | 327 |
20 other Los Angeles Rams players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Monday, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams
New York Giants27.9% to winPregame projection
21–30
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Los Angeles Rams69.6% to winLos Angeles Rams were the projected winner, 69.6% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
LAR +9
8 in 10 outcomes between -8 and +25
Expected total
51
8 in 10 outcomes between 34 and 68
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameNYG 21 — 30 LARwin chance NYG 27.9% · LAR 69.6%total 51 (34–68)margin +9
NYG
Likely TD scorers
Cam Skattebo 45.0%
Isaiah Likely 44.5%
Malik Nabers 36.1%
Passing
Jaxson Dart 211 pass yds (116–348)
Rushing leaders
Cam Skattebo 43 rush yds (10–113)
Tyrone Tracy Jr. 24 rush yds (4–81)
Receiving leaders
Isaiah Likely 6 rec · 65 yds
Malik Nabers 5 rec · 62 yds
Malachi Fields 3 rec · 26 yds
LAR
Likely TD scorers
Kyren Williams 48.5%
Davante Adams 33.7%
Blake Corum 26.6%
Passing
Matthew Stafford 222 pass yds (121–367)
Rushing leaders
Kyren Williams 44 rush yds (11–118)
Blake Corum 32 rush yds (6–99)
Receiving leaders
Davante Adams 4 rec · 44 yds
Kyren Williams 2 rec · 18 yds
Colby Parkinson 2 rec · 21 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
69.6%
LAR to win
Sportsbook win chance
71.7%
LAR to win, read from 6 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-2.1 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
51 vs 47
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 20 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | NYG | 6 (2–12) | 65 (28–126) | 44.5% | |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | 5 (2–11) | 62 (25–124) | 36.1% | |
| Davante Adams | LAR | 4 (1–8) | 44 (15–96) | 33.7% | |
| Malachi Fields | NYG | 3 (0–6) | 26 (4–66) | 19.5% | |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 2 (0–5) | 18 (0–51) | 48.5% | |
| Devin Singletary | NYG | 2 (0–5) | 17 (0–48) | 32.4% | |
| Colby Parkinson | LAR | 2 (0–5) | 21 (0–57) | 18.3% | |
| Theo Johnson | NYG | 2 (0–5) | 22 (0–60) | 17.3% | |
| Tyler Higbee | LAR | 2 (0–4) | 16 (0–48) | 12.9% | |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–38) | 45.0% | |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG | 1 (0–4) | 12 (0–40) | 28.7% | |
| Darnell Mooney | NYG | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–41) | 10.0% | |
| Gunner Olszewski | NYG | 1 (0–3) | 9 (0–37) | 9.2% | |
| Jalin Hyatt | NYG | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–35) | 9.2% | |
| Terrance Ferguson | LAR | 1 (0–3) | 7 (0–34) | 9.1% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 20 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 48.5% Kyren Williams · LAR
- 45.0% Cam Skattebo · NYG
- 44.5% Isaiah Likely · NYG
- 36.1% Malik Nabers · NYG
- 33.7% Davante Adams · LAR
- 32.4% Devin Singletary · NYG
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- cb4a254ca297f1fc
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
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- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET