37.6%

67–111 on 178 decisive

Combined audit across the sports that had settled rows on 2026-09-10. Pushes excluded. Pending games never count as losses.

At a glance

Hit

model agreed and the line cleared

Miss

111

model agreed but the line did not clear

Push

final stat tied the line — excluded from hit rate

Pending

no games still pending on this date

MLB

37.6%

67–111 on 178

Full MLB audit →

Biggest hits

MLBAdael AmadorOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+30.5pp edgeactual 1
MLBAdael AmadorOver 0.5 Hits+22.4pp edgeactual 1
MLBCal RaleighOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+21.6pp edgeactual 2
MLBDanny JansenOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+20.3pp edgeactual 1
MLBOneil CruzOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+19.5pp edgeactual 6

Biggest misses

MLBBrandon LoweOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+18.0pp edgeactual 0
MLBMax FriedUnder 5.5 Strikeouts+17.1pp edgeactual 7
MLBJacob deGromUnder 6.5 Strikeouts+8.6pp edgeactual 12
MLBJunior CamineroOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+7.1pp edgeactual 0
MLBLogan GilbertUnder 6.5 Strikeouts+5.7pp edgeactual 11

MLB settled games · projection vs actual

TB @ ATL

9–2130 dec30.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Chandler Simpson	Hits	Over 0.5	1.20	0	+3.7%	Medium	Loss
Michael Harris II	Hits	Under 0.5	0.84	0	+2.5%	Medium	Win
Junior Caminero	Hits	Over 0.5	1.14	0	+5.0%	Medium	Loss
Drake Baldwin	Hits	Over 0.5	1.14	1	+4.6%	Medium	Win
Matt Olson	Hits	Under 0.5	0.68	1	+2.2%	Low	Loss
Ryan Vilade	Hits	Under 0.5	0.64	1	+2.5%	Low	Loss
Austin Riley	Hits	Over 0.5	0.85	1	+2.9%	Medium	Win
Lane Thomas	Hits	Under 0.5	0.47	—	+4.9%	Medium	Void
Cedric Mullins	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	0	-0.7%	Low	Loss
Brewer Hicklen	Hits	Over 0.5	0.89	0	+8.4%	High	Loss
Nick Fortes	Hits	Over 0.5	0.65	0	-1.8%	Low	Loss
Jorge Mateo	Hits	Under 0.5	0.48	0	+1.4%	Low	Win
Ha-Seong Kim	Hits	Under 0.5	0.46	2	-0.1%	Low	Loss
Junior Caminero	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.42	0	+7.1%	High	Loss
Michael Harris II	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.67	0	-1.3%	Low	Win
Drake Baldwin	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.20	1	+6.9%	High	Loss
Chandler Simpson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.93	0	+7.2%	High	Loss
Matt Olson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.48	1	-2.9%	Low	Win
Ryan Vilade	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.19	1	-0.8%	Low	Win
Austin Riley	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.67	3	+6.5%	High	Win
Cedric Mullins	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.65	0	+8.7%	High	Loss
Lane Thomas	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	0.91	—	+0.7%	Low	Void
Brewer Hicklen	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.78	0	+14.3%	High	Loss
Nick Fortes	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.23	0	+2.2%	Low	Loss
Jorge Mateo	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.27	0	+4.7%	Medium	Loss
Ha-Seong Kim	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.82	4	+0.2%	Low	Win
Junior Caminero	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.12	0	+12.9%	High	Loss
Michael Harris II	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.52	0	+2.1%	Low	Loss
Matt Olson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.22	1	-2.4%	Low	Loss
Drake Baldwin	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.79	1	+9.6%	High	Loss
Chandler Simpson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.29	0	+3.1%	Medium	Loss
Nick Martinez	Strikeouts	Over 3.5	3.78	3	+5.5%	High	Loss

HOU @ PHI

18–2139 dec46.2%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Cristian Javier	Strikeouts	Over 3.5	5.27	5	+16.1%	High	Win
Zack Wheeler	Strikeouts	Under 6.5	6.54	9	-2.1%	Low	Loss
Luis Arraez	Hits	Over 0.5	1.18	1	+4.0%	Medium	Win
Yordan Alvarez	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	0	-3.2%	Low	Loss
Bryce Harper	Hits	Over 0.5	1.13	0	+6.0%	High	Loss
Bryson Stott	Hits	Under 0.5	0.64	0	+4.4%	Medium	Win
Alec Bohm	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	1	+0.0%	Low	Win
Kyle Schwarber	Hits	Over 0.5	0.85	0	-2.8%	Low	Loss
Trea Turner	Hits	Over 0.5	1.00	0	+3.6%	Medium	Loss
Jose Altuve	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	2	+3.3%	Medium	Win
Isaac Paredes	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	1	+9.4%	High	Win
Justin Crawford	Hits	Over 0.5	0.64	1	-3.5%	Low	Win
Daulton Varsho	Hits	Over 0.5	0.77	0	+3.8%	Medium	Loss
Brandon Marsh	Hits	Over 0.5	0.72	0	+1.5%	Low	Loss
Christian Walker	Hits	Over 0.5	0.77	1	+6.0%	High	Win
Cam Smith	Hits	Over 0.5	0.77	2	+6.6%	High	Win
Taylor Trammell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.53	1	+7.3%	High	Win
Kyle Schwarber	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 2.5	2.45	0	+2.0%	Low	Loss
Yordan Alvarez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.03	0	+0.7%	Low	Loss
Bryce Harper	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.06	0	+5.0%	Medium	Loss
Luis Arraez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.93	2	+3.6%	Medium	Win
Bryson Stott	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.38	1	+0.3%	Low	Win
Alec Bohm	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.90	1	+4.3%	Medium	Loss
Trea Turner	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.13	0	+9.0%	High	Loss
Isaac Paredes	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.28	1	+20.6%	Low	Loss
Jose Altuve	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.78	2	+10.6%	High	Win
Justin Crawford	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.25	1	-1.6%	Low	Loss
Brandon Marsh	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.33	0	+2.9%	Medium	Loss
Daulton Varsho	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.52	0	+7.2%	High	Loss
Christian Walker	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.59	2	+8.2%	High	Win
Cam Smith	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.69	4	+12.8%	High	Win
Taylor Trammell	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.87	2	+8.7%	High	Win
Kyle Schwarber	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.99	0	+6.6%	High	Loss
Yordan Alvarez	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.72	0	+3.0%	Medium	Loss
Bryce Harper	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.63	0	+5.4%	High	Loss
Trea Turner	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.85	0	+14.4%	High	Loss
Bryson Stott	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.08	0	-3.1%	Low	Win
Luis Arraez	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.51	1	+7.7%	High	Loss
Alec Bohm	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.52	2	+10.3%	High	Win

TEX @ SEA

10–2636 dec27.8%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Randy Arozarena	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	0	+11.4%	High	Loss
Dominic Canzone	Hits	Over 0.5	0.90	1	+5.8%	High	Win
Ezequiel Duran	Hits	Over 0.5	1.04	0	+8.7%	High	Loss
Josh Naylor	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	0	+7.5%	High	Loss
Brandon Nimmo	Hits	Over 0.5	1.05	0	+8.8%	High	Loss
Cole Young	Hits	Over 0.5	0.85	1	+5.0%	Medium	Win
Jake Burger	Hits	Over 0.5	0.88	0	+7.1%	High	Loss
Wyatt Langford	Hits	Over 0.5	0.66	0	-3.4%	Low	Loss
Corey Seager	Hits	Over 0.5	0.98	0	+10.6%	High	Loss
J.P. Crawford	Hits	Over 0.5	0.89	0	+9.5%	High	Loss
Cody Freeman	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	0	+3.4%	Medium	Loss
Cal Raleigh	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	1	+17.5%	High	Win
Joc Pederson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.52	1	-2.1%	Low	Win
Lazaro Montes	Hits	Over 0.5	0.71	0	+9.8%	High	Loss
Danny Jansen	Hits	Over 0.5	0.62	1	+8.7%	High	Win
Evan Carter	Hits	Over 0.5	0.58	0	+6.8%	High	Loss
Brock Rodden	Hits	Over 0.5	0.65	0	+14.1%	High	Loss
Corey Seager	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.31	0	+20.3%	Low	Loss
Randy Arozarena	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.54	1	+21.7%	Low	Loss
Brandon Nimmo	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.91	0	+12.6%	High	Loss
Dominic Canzone	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.80	3	+10.7%	High	Win
Wyatt Langford	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.72	0	+11.1%	High	Loss
Ezequiel Duran	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.37	0	+23.8%	Low	Loss
Josh Naylor	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.65	0	+10.7%	High	Loss
Cole Young	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.80	1	+14.4%	High	Loss
J.P. Crawford	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.56	0	+7.0%	High	Loss
Jake Burger	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.20	0	+16.1%	High	Loss
Cal Raleigh	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.28	2	+21.6%	Low	Win
Cody Freeman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.18	0	+9.9%	High	Loss
Joc Pederson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.16	4	+5.4%	High	Win
Lazaro Montes	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.00	0	+19.1%	High	Loss
Evan Carter	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.37	1	+19.4%	High	Win
Danny Jansen	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.57	1	+20.3%	Low	Win
Brock Rodden	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.10	0	+19.4%	High	Loss
Logan Gilbert	Strikeouts	Under 6.5	6.31	11	+5.7%	High	Loss
Jacob deGrom	Strikeouts	Under 6.5	6.02	12	+8.6%	High	Loss

COL @ NYY

20–1636 dec55.6%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Ben Rice	Hits	Over 0.5	1.03	1	-1.5%	Low	Win
Cody Bellinger	Hits	Over 0.5	1.24	2	+8.0%	High	Win
George Lombard Jr.	Hits	Under 0.5	0.66	0	+4.7%	Medium	Win
Jake McCarthy	Hits	Over 0.5	1.21	2	+11.0%	High	Win
Spencer Jones	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	3	+0.2%	Low	Win
Hunter Goodman	Hits	Under 0.5	0.71	0	-2.6%	Low	Win
Cole Carrigg	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	1	+5.2%	High	Win
Kyle Karros	Hits	Over 0.5	0.71	1	-0.6%	Low	Win
TJ Rumfield	Hits	Over 0.5	1.22	0	+18.6%	High	Loss
Austin Wells	Hits	Under 0.5	0.55	0	-0.9%	Low	Win
Ryan McMahon	Hits	Under 0.5	0.50	1	-0.5%	Low	Loss
Connor Norby	Hits	Over 0.5	0.81	0	+8.3%	High	Loss
Jordan Beck	Hits	Over 0.5	0.63	0	+4.2%	Medium	Loss
Adael Amador	Hits	Over 0.5	1.05	1	+22.4%	Low	Win
Ezequiel Tovar	Hits	Over 0.5	0.59	2	+4.7%	Medium	Win
Ben Rice	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 2.5	2.22	2	-0.3%	Low	Loss
Cody Bellinger	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.48	4	+9.1%	High	Win
Spencer Jones	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.14	6	+7.9%	High	Win
George Lombard Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.51	0	-3.5%	Low	Loss
Jake McCarthy	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.38	3	+17.2%	High	Win
Austin Wells	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.52	2	+4.0%	Medium	Win
Hunter Goodman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.88	0	+10.1%	High	Loss
Ryan McMahon	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	0.89	3	+3.2%	Medium	Loss
Cole Carrigg	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.83	1	+11.7%	High	Loss
Kyle Karros	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.41	3	+6.0%	High	Win
TJ Rumfield	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.33	0	+18.0%	High	Loss
Connor Norby	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.53	0	+12.8%	High	Loss
Adael Amador	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.96	1	+30.5%	Low	Win
Jordan Beck	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.02	0	+9.1%	High	Loss
Ezequiel Tovar	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.08	3	+9.6%	High	Win
Ben Rice	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.67	1	+2.5%	Low	Loss
Cody Bellinger	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.73	4	+8.3%	High	Win
Spencer Jones	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.60	3	+6.9%	High	Win
George Lombard Jr.	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.19	0	-1.2%	Low	Loss
Max Fried	Strikeouts	Under 5.5	4.50	7	+17.1%	High	Loss
Ryan Feltner	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	4.77	2	+4.4%	Medium	Loss

PIT @ CWS

10–2737 dec27.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Jared Jones	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	6.10	8	+1.6%	Low	Win
Nick Gonzales	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	1	+1.7%	Low	Win
Konnor Griffin	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	0	+0.5%	Low	Loss
Bryan Reynolds	Hits	Over 0.5	1.14	0	+9.4%	High	Loss
Miguel Vargas	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	0	+3.4%	Medium	Loss
Jake Mangum	Hits	Over 0.5	0.90	0	-0.2%	Low	Loss
Sam Antonacci	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	0	+4.8%	Medium	Loss
Brandon Lowe	Hits	Over 0.5	1.26	0	+18.0%	High	Loss
Spencer Horwitz	Hits	Over 0.5	0.77	1	+0.8%	Low	Win
Oneil Cruz	Hits	Over 0.5	1.17	3	+13.8%	High	Win
Chase Meidroth	Hits	Over 0.5	0.85	0	+5.0%	Medium	Loss
Braden Montgomery	Hits	Over 0.5	0.65	0	-2.8%	Low	Loss
Andrew Benintendi	Hits	Under 0.5	0.57	0	-1.4%	Low	Win
Jacob Gonzalez	Hits	Over 0.5	0.65	—	-1.2%	Low	Void
Tristan Peters	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	0	+9.2%	High	Loss
Munetaka Murakami	Hits	Under 0.5	0.58	0	-3.5%	Low	Win
Colson Montgomery	Hits	Over 0.5	0.69	1	+2.1%	Low	Win
Henry Davis	Hits	Under 0.5	0.40	—	+1.0%	Low	Void
Jake Rogers	Hits	Under 0.5	0.43	0	-3.0%	Low	Win
Konnor Griffin	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.92	0	+6.3%	High	Loss
Nick Gonzales	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.74	1	+2.4%	Low	Loss
Miguel Vargas	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.87	0	+4.7%	Medium	Loss
Bryan Reynolds	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.37	0	+16.7%	High	Loss
Brandon Lowe	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.43	0	+18.0%	High	Loss
Oneil Cruz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.58	6	+19.5%	High	Win
Sam Antonacci	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.83	0	+8.6%	High	Loss
Jake Mangum	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.62	0	+4.7%	Medium	Loss
Munetaka Murakami	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.60	0	+5.7%	High	Loss
Spencer Horwitz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.68	1	+8.6%	High	Loss
Andrew Benintendi	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.31	0	+1.4%	Low	Loss
Colson Montgomery	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.94	1	+14.2%	High	Loss
Braden Montgomery	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.46	0	+6.2%	High	Loss
Chase Meidroth	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.51	0	+7.5%	High	Loss
Jacob Gonzalez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.14	—	-0.7%	Low	Void
Tristan Peters	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.58	0	+7.2%	High	Loss
Henry Davis	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.15	—	+4.8%	Medium	Void
Jake Rogers	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.99	0	+4.3%	Medium	Loss
Miguel Vargas	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.54	0	+6.7%	High	Loss
Konnor Griffin	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.25	0	+0.9%	Low	Loss
Bryan Reynolds	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.79	0	+14.4%	High	Loss
Nick Gonzales	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.34	2	+4.3%	Medium	Win

all settled dates