SF @ LAR
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams, 2026-09-11. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Thursday, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET · started
San Francisco 49ersat
Los Angeles RamsEXPERIMENTAL
Melbourne Cricket Ground
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was SF 27 – 7 LAR, from the Week 1 record.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Simulation
What our model expects
10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1
Projected score
SF 23 — 28 LAR
the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Win chance
SF 39.4% · LAR 58.2%
how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.4%
Total points (both teams)
51
8 in 10 simulations landed between 34 and 68
LAR winning margin
+5
a minus means SF wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -13 and 22
Model details
From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to beat the market is made. Generated 2026-09-10T22:56:45Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameSF 23 — 28 LARwin chance SF 39.4% · LAR 58.2%total 51 (34–68)margin +5
SF
Likely TD scorers
Christian McCaffrey 45.8%
George Kittle 23.2%
Jake Tonges 22.5%
Passing
Brock Purdy 165 pass yds (50–296)
Rushing leaders
Christian McCaffrey 43 rush yds (15–87)
Brock Purdy 10 rush yds (0–39)
New arrivals · not in these numbers
Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.
Mike Evans 3.8 rec · 46 yds/g at TB
Deebo Samuel Sr. 4.2 rec · 42.8 yds/g at WSH
Christian Kirk 2.9 rec · 29.7 yds/g at HOU
Receiving leaders
Christian McCaffrey 4 rec · 35 yds
George Kittle 3 rec · 36 yds
Jake Tonges 2 rec · 19 yds
LAR
Likely TD scorers
Kyren Williams 45.3%
Puka Nacua 39.3%
Davante Adams 34.2%
Passing
Matthew Stafford 186 pass yds (66–312) · available role uncertain
Rushing leaders
Kyren Williams 47 rush yds (16–95)
Blake Corum 28 rush yds (6–69)
Receiving leaders
Puka Nacua 5 rec · 62 yds
Davante Adams 3 rec · 33 yds
Colby Parkinson 2 rec · 19 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Range
How wide the outcomes are
the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score
| Team | Low (10th) | Projected | High (90th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 23 | 36 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 16 | 28 | 40 |
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 22 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LAR | projected active | 5 (2–9) | 62 (19–123) | 39.3% |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | projected active | 4 (1–7) | 35 (7–81) | 45.8% |
| Davante Adams | LAR | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 33 (5–81) | 34.2% |
| George Kittle | SF | projected active | 3 (1–7) | 36 (6–85) | 23.2% |
| Colby Parkinson | LAR | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–58) | 26.5% |
| Jake Tonges | SF | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–57) | 22.5% |
| Ricky Pearsall | SF | role uncertain | 2 (0–5) | 26 (0–70) | — |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | role uncertain | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–53) | — |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–38) | 45.3% |
| Terrance Ferguson | LAR | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–37) | 20.8% |
| Tyler Higbee | LAR | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–44) | 17.0% |
| Demarcus Robinson | SF | projected active | 1 (0–4) | 12 (0–47) | 15.5% |
| Davis Allen | LAR | role uncertain | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–33) | — |
New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above
Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.
| Player | Team | Availability | Last club | Per game (prior club) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans WR | SF | active uncertain | TB · 8g | 3.8 rec · 46 yds |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. WR | SF | active uncertain | WSH · 17g | 4.2 rec · 42.8 yds · 5.5 rush yds |
| Christian Kirk WR | SF | out | HOU · 14g | 2.9 rec · 29.7 yds |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 16 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 45.8% Christian McCaffrey · SF
- 45.3% Kyren Williams · LAR
- 39.3% Puka Nacua · LAR
- 34.2% Davante Adams · LAR
- 26.5% Colby Parkinson · LAR
- 23.2% George Kittle · SF
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Experimental
- Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.
Provenance
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 739be4ef72ef18e9
- generated
- 2026-09-10T22:56:45Z
- kickoff
- 2026-09-11T00:35Z
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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