SF @ LAR
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams, Thu, Sep 10. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Thursday, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET · final
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was SF 27 – 7 LAR, from the Week 1 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: SF 27 – 7 LAR
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 14, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
San Francisco 49ers · 27
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 205Forecast 165 (50–296) · in range | 29Forecast 10 (0–39) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 16.4% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0 | 68Forecast 43 (15–87) · in range | 5Forecast 4 (1–7) · in range | 20Forecast 35 (7–81) · in range | NoForecast 45.8% |
| Kaelon Black | 0 | 65 | 1 | 5 | No |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 0 | 12 | 6 | 48 | Yes |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 50Forecast 12 (0–47) · outside range | YesForecast 15.5% |
| Mike Evans | 0 | 0 | 6 | 49 | Yes |
| Luke Farrell | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | NoForecast 8.6% |
| George Kittle | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 12Forecast 36 (6–85) · in range | NoForecast 23.2% |
| Jake Brendel | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | No |
| Brandon AiyukNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–4) | —Forecast 15 (0–53) | — |
| Isaac GuerendoNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 7.2% |
| Jake TongesNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–5) | —Forecast 19 (0–57) | —Forecast 22.5% |
| Jordan JamesNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 3 (0–25) | — | — | — |
| Kyle JuszczykNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 10.7% |
| Mac JonesNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 55 (0–189) | —Forecast 2 (0–20) | — | — | — |
| Ricky PearsallNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–5) | —Forecast 26 (0–70) | — |
| Player lines added up | 205 | 174 | 25 | 205 |
24 other San Francisco 49ers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Los Angeles Rams · 7
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 155Forecast 186 (66–312) · in range | -1 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Puka Nacua | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 5 (2–9) · in range | 74Forecast 62 (19–123) · in range | NoForecast 39.3% |
| Kyren Williams | 0 | 41Forecast 47 (16–95) · in range | 3Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 24Forecast 8 (0–38) · in range | YesForecast 45.3% |
| Blake Corum | 0 | 54Forecast 28 (6–69) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 15.7% |
| Davante Adams | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 26Forecast 33 (5–81) · in range | NoForecast 34.2% |
| Ronnie Rivers | 0 | 19 | 1 | 5 | No |
| Stetson Bennett IV | 13 | 9 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Davis Allen | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 13Forecast 6 (0–33) · in range | No |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 12Forecast 11 (0–44) · in range | NoForecast 17.0% |
| Jordan Whittington | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | No |
| Colby Parkinson | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 6Forecast 19 (0–58) · in range | NoForecast 26.5% |
| Terrance Ferguson | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 6 (0–37) · in range | NoForecast 20.8% |
| Tutu AtwellNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 12.0% |
| Player lines added up | 168 | 122 | 17 | 168 |
20 other Los Angeles Rams players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 1 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 1 · Thursday, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET · Melbourne Cricket Ground
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
San Francisco 49ers39.4% to winPregame projection
23–28
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Los Angeles Rams58.2% to winLos Angeles Rams were the projected winner, 58.2% to win.
About 2% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
LAR +5
8 in 10 outcomes between -13 and +22
Expected total
51
8 in 10 outcomes between 34 and 68
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameSF 23 — 28 LARwin chance SF 39.4% · LAR 58.2%total 51 (34–68)margin +5
SF
Likely TD scorers
Christian McCaffrey 45.8%
George Kittle 23.2%
Jake Tonges 22.5%
Passing
Brock Purdy 165 pass yds (50–296)
Rushing leaders
Christian McCaffrey 43 rush yds (15–87)
Brock Purdy 10 rush yds (0–39)
Receiving leaders
Christian McCaffrey 4 rec · 35 yds
George Kittle 3 rec · 36 yds
Jake Tonges 2 rec · 19 yds
LAR
Likely TD scorers
Kyren Williams 45.3%
Puka Nacua 39.3%
Davante Adams 34.2%
Passing
Matthew Stafford 186 pass yds (66–312)
Rushing leaders
Kyren Williams 47 rush yds (16–95)
Blake Corum 28 rush yds (6–69)
Receiving leaders
Puka Nacua 5 rec · 62 yds
Davante Adams 3 rec · 33 yds
Colby Parkinson 2 rec · 19 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 22 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LAR | projected active | 5 (2–9) | 62 (19–123) | 39.3% |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | projected active | 4 (1–7) | 35 (7–81) | 45.8% |
| Davante Adams | LAR | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 33 (5–81) | 34.2% |
| George Kittle | SF | projected active | 3 (1–7) | 36 (6–85) | 23.2% |
| Colby Parkinson | LAR | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–58) | 26.5% |
| Jake Tonges | SF | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–57) | 22.5% |
| Ricky Pearsall | SF | 2 (0–5) | 26 (0–70) | — | |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–53) | — | |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–38) | 45.3% |
| Terrance Ferguson | LAR | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–37) | 20.8% |
| Tyler Higbee | LAR | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–44) | 17.0% |
| Demarcus Robinson | SF | projected active | 1 (0–4) | 12 (0–47) | 15.5% |
| Davis Allen | LAR | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–33) | — |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 16 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 45.8% Christian McCaffrey · SF
- 45.3% Kyren Williams · LAR
- 39.3% Puka Nacua · LAR
- 34.2% Davante Adams · LAR
- 26.5% Colby Parkinson · LAR
- 23.2% George Kittle · SF
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 739be4ef72ef18e9
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
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- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
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- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET