51.7%

93–87 on 180 decisive

Combined audit across the sports that had settled rows on 2026-08-27. Pushes excluded. Pending games never count as losses.

At a glance

Hit

model agreed and the line cleared

Miss

model agreed but the line did not clear

Push

final stat tied the line — excluded from hit rate

Pending

no games still pending on this date

MLB

51.7%

93–87 on 180

Full MLB audit →

Biggest hits

MLBNate FurmanUnder 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+27.0pp edgeactual 0
MLBJared YoungOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+22.8pp edgeactual 3
MLBNate FurmanUnder 0.5 Hits+22.4pp edgeactual 0
MLBRafael DeversOver 1.5 Total Bases+21.1pp edgeactual 2
MLBJared YoungOver 0.5 Hits+18.0pp edgeactual 1

Biggest misses

MLBShohei OhtaniOver 1.5 Total Bases+20.3pp edgeactual 0
MLBMatt OlsonOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+17.5pp edgeactual 0
MLBShohei OhtaniOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+16.4pp edgeactual 0
MLBTommy EdmanOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+16.1pp edgeactual 0
MLBCarson BengeOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+16.0pp edgeactual 0

MLB settled games · projection vs actual

HOU @ NYY

15–2237 dec40.5%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Hayden Wesneski	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	4.55	6	+1.3%	Low	Win
Gerrit Cole	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	6.85	5	+13.5%	High	Loss
Ben Rice	Hits	Under 0.5	0.86	2	-0.6%	Low	Loss
Jose Altuve	Hits	Over 0.5	1.03	0	+1.3%	Low	Loss
Trent Grisham	Hits	Under 0.5	0.69	0	+3.2%	Medium	Win
Yordan Alvarez	Hits	Over 0.5	1.08	0	+4.2%	Medium	Loss
Cody Bellinger	Hits	Over 0.5	1.03	0	+6.9%	High	Loss
George Lombard Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	1	+7.8%	High	Win
Yainer Diaz	Hits	Over 0.5	0.89	1	+3.4%	Medium	Win
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	0.94	1	+7.9%	High	Win
Christian Walker	Hits	Over 0.5	0.73	3	-0.2%	Low	Win
Daulton Varsho	Hits	Over 0.5	0.98	0	+10.7%	High	Loss
Isaac Paredes	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	2	+10.2%	High	Win
Spencer Jones	Hits	Over 0.5	0.89	0	+8.7%	High	Loss
Austin Wells	Hits	Under 0.5	0.56	0	-3.1%	Low	Win
Cam Smith	Hits	Under 0.5	0.52	0	-1.9%	Low	Win
Taylor Trammell	Hits	Under 0.5	0.33	1	-0.6%	Low	Loss
Ben Rice	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.27	3	+4.2%	Medium	Win
Trent Grisham	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.79	0	-1.4%	Low	Loss
Yordan Alvarez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.26	0	+7.9%	High	Loss
Cody Bellinger	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.21	1	+11.9%	High	Loss
Jose Altuve	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.99	0	+9.2%	High	Loss
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.91	1	+11.1%	High	Loss
George Lombard Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.95	1	+14.5%	High	Loss
Spencer Jones	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.98	0	+13.4%	High	Loss
Daulton Varsho	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.77	1	+11.4%	High	Loss
Christian Walker	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.71	7	+10.3%	High	Win
Isaac Paredes	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.06	3	+17.8%	High	Win
Austin Wells	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	0.94	0	+3.5%	Medium	Win
Yainer Diaz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.68	1	+10.6%	High	Loss
Cam Smith	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.34	0	+7.0%	High	Loss
Taylor Trammell	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.66	1	+0.5%	Low	Win
Ben Rice	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.83	3	+7.6%	High	Win
Yordan Alvarez	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.86	0	+7.7%	High	Loss
Trent Grisham	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.33	0	+0.8%	Low	Loss
Cody Bellinger	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.63	0	+9.8%	High	Loss
Jose Altuve	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.67	0	+13.9%	High	Loss

KC @ TOR

25–1540 dec62.5%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Noah Cameron	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	4.50	3	+2.6%	Medium	Loss
Bobby Witt Jr.	Hits	Over 1.5	1.21	2	+2.5%	Medium	Win
Alejandro Kirk	Hits	Over 0.5	1.02	1	+2.4%	Low	Win
Jac Caglianone	Hits	Over 0.5	1.09	5	+4.0%	Medium	Win
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	1.04	0	+2.8%	Medium	Loss
George Springer	Hits	Over 0.5	0.95	2	+1.5%	Low	Win
Ernie Clement	Hits	Over 0.5	1.09	1	+5.7%	High	Win
Brett Bateman	Hits	Over 0.5	1.44	—	+16.2%	High	Void
Salvador Perez	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	1	+4.8%	Medium	Win
Vinnie Pasquantino	Hits	Over 0.5	1.00	2	+7.6%	High	Win
Nick Loftin	Hits	Under 0.5	0.71	—	-3.4%	Low	Void
Carter Jensen	Hits	Over 0.5	0.79	1	+1.1%	Low	Win
Kazuma Okamoto	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	1	+4.7%	Medium	Win
Kyle Isbel	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	1	+7.6%	High	Win
Isaac Collins	Hits	Over 0.5	0.61	1	-2.3%	Low	Win
Tyler Tolbert	Hits	Over 0.5	0.61	1	-2.7%	Low	Win
Charles McAdoo	Hits	Over 0.5	0.95	1	+14.4%	High	Win
Myles Straw	Hits	Under 0.5	0.40	1	+1.4%	Low	Loss
Daz Cameron	Hits	Over 0.5	0.83	0	+12.5%	High	Loss
Bobby Witt Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.53	6	+10.3%	High	Win
Jac Caglianone	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.23	14	+8.0%	High	Win
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.70	0	-0.0%	Low	Loss
Alejandro Kirk	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.00	2	+8.0%	High	Win
George Springer	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.73	5	+2.9%	Medium	Win
Carter Jensen	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.61	4	+1.3%	Low	Win
Salvador Perez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.00	1	+9.7%	High	Loss
Brett Bateman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.16	—	+16.6%	High	Void
Ernie Clement	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.71	1	+4.3%	Medium	Loss
Vinnie Pasquantino	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.99	6	+11.4%	High	Win
Kazuma Okamoto	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.88	1	+8.0%	High	Loss
Nick Loftin	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.51	—	+3.9%	Medium	Void
Kyle Isbel	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.93	3	+15.2%	High	Win
Isaac Collins	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.15	1	-2.2%	Low	Loss
Tyler Tolbert	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.25	2	+0.8%	Low	Win
Myles Straw	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 0.5	0.75	1	-3.1%	Low	Loss
Charles McAdoo	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.75	1	+17.3%	High	Win
Daz Cameron	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.83	0	+22.2%	Low	Loss
Bobby Witt Jr.	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.04	3	+10.3%	High	Win
Jac Caglianone	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.72	9	+7.7%	High	Win
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.31	0	+2.2%	Low	Loss
Alejandro Kirk	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.60	1	+10.7%	High	Loss
Salvador Perez	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.51	1	+9.1%	High	Loss
George Springer	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.33	5	+4.9%	Medium	Win
Ernie Clement	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.36	1	+6.7%	High	Loss

MIL @ NYM

17–1835 dec48.6%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Sean Manaea	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	5.98	3	+11.6%	High	Loss
Jacob Misiorowski	Strikeouts	Under 8.5	7.90	6	+8.4%	High	Win
Jackson Chourio	Hits	Over 1.5	1.17	4	+0.4%	Low	Win
William Contreras	Hits	Over 0.5	1.32	0	+6.7%	High	Loss
Luis Lara	Hits	Over 0.5	1.08	1	+6.8%	High	Win
Brice Turang	Hits	Under 0.5	0.80	—	-1.8%	Low	Void
Andrew Vaughn	Hits	Over 0.5	0.98	2	+3.3%	Medium	Win
Christian Yelich	Hits	Over 0.5	0.90	—	+1.8%	Low	Void
Joey Ortiz	Hits	Over 0.5	0.82	2	+1.3%	Low	Win
Bo Bichette	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	—	+9.4%	High	Void
Cooper Pratt	Hits	Over 0.5	0.72	1	-1.0%	Low	Win
Garrett Mitchell	Hits	Over 0.5	1.02	—	+10.3%	High	Void
Carson Benge	Hits	Over 0.5	1.24	0	+17.5%	High	Loss
Luis Robert Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	0.90	1	+9.8%	High	Win
Francisco Lindor	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	0	+8.7%	High	Loss
Marcus Semien	Hits	Over 0.5	0.83	0	+8.1%	High	Loss
A.J. Ewing	Hits	Over 0.5	0.75	0	+4.9%	Medium	Loss
Jared Young	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	1	+18.0%	High	Win
Francisco Alvarez	Hits	Over 0.5	0.54	0	+4.5%	Medium	Loss
Brett Baty	Hits	Over 0.5	0.75	0	+15.7%	High	Loss
Jackson Chourio	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.05	12	-0.7%	Low	Win
William Contreras	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.54	1	+11.3%	High	Loss
Brice Turang	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.94	—	+6.2%	High	Void
Andrew Vaughn	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.67	3	+1.4%	Low	Win
Luis Lara	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.14	2	+10.0%	High	Win
Christian Yelich	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.99	—	+10.4%	High	Void
Joey Ortiz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.96	3	+12.9%	High	Win
Cooper Pratt	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.49	3	+3.3%	Medium	Win
Garrett Mitchell	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.98	—	+14.6%	High	Void
Bo Bichette	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.97	—	+17.6%	High	Void
Carson Benge	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.27	0	+16.0%	High	Loss
Luis Robert Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.88	2	+14.9%	High	Win
Francisco Lindor	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.71	0	+9.3%	High	Loss
A.J. Ewing	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.32	0	+5.2%	High	Loss
Marcus Semien	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.30	0	+5.4%	High	Loss
Jared Young	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.79	3	+22.8%	Low	Win
Francisco Alvarez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.96	0	+8.3%	High	Loss
Brett Baty	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.62	0	+24.0%	Low	Loss
Jackson Chourio	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.64	10	+2.3%	Low	Win
William Contreras	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.91	0	+12.4%	High	Loss
Andrew Vaughn	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.18	2	-0.0%	Low	Win
Brice Turang	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.35	—	+6.8%	High	Void
Luis Lara	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.51	1	+10.3%	High	Loss
Sean Manaea	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	5.98	3	+14.8%	High	Loss

LAD @ ATL

12–1628 dec42.9%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Strikeouts	Over 6.5	7.24	8	+17.5%	High	Win
Chris Sale	Strikeouts	Over 7.5	7.46	11	+1.8%	Low	Win
Shohei Ohtani	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	0	+5.5%	High	Loss
Michael Harris II	Hits	Over 0.5	1.21	1	+9.0%	High	Win
Mookie Betts	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	2	-0.7%	Low	Win
Drake Baldwin	Hits	Over 0.5	1.09	1	+7.4%	High	Win
Freddie Freeman	Hits	Over 0.5	1.12	1	+9.6%	High	Win
Tommy Edman	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	0	+3.6%	Medium	Loss
Kyle Tucker	Hits	Over 0.5	0.71	—	+0.7%	Low	Void
Matt Olson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.90	0	+9.3%	High	Loss
Dominic Smith	Hits	Under 0.5	0.54	—	-0.2%	Low	Void
Ozzie Albies	Hits	Over 0.5	1.04	1	+15.1%	High	Win
Miguel Rojas	Hits	Under 0.5	0.56	1	-2.1%	Low	Loss
Austin Riley	Hits	Over 0.5	0.80	0	+7.8%	High	Loss
Mike Yastrzemski	Hits	Over 0.5	0.50	0	+0.0%	Low	Loss
Ben Rortvedt	Hits	Under 0.5	0.33	1	-3.3%	Low	Loss
Shohei Ohtani	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.53	0	+16.4%	High	Loss
Michael Harris II	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.08	1	+11.8%	High	Loss
Mookie Betts	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.91	2	+9.0%	High	Win
Drake Baldwin	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.20	3	+15.1%	High	Win
Freddie Freeman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.11	1	+18.4%	High	Loss
Tommy Edman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.13	0	+16.1%	High	Loss
Matt Olson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.99	0	+17.5%	High	Loss
Kyle Tucker	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.62	—	+7.9%	High	Void
Dominic Smith	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.05	—	-1.2%	Low	Void
Ozzie Albies	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.82	1	+12.3%	High	Win
Miguel Rojas	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.00	1	+3.0%	Medium	Win
Austin Riley	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.58	0	+12.1%	High	Loss
Mike Yastrzemski	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.88	0	+3.7%	Medium	Loss
Ben Rortvedt	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.44	1	-3.2%	Low	Win
Shohei Ohtani	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.31	0	+20.3%	Low	Loss
Michael Harris II	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.98	1	+19.0%	High	Loss

AZ @ SF

24–1640 dec60.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Landen Roupp	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	4.17	3	-1.4%	Low	Win
Jose Cabrera	Strikeouts	Under 3.5	3.00	4	+7.9%	High	Loss
Gabriel Moreno	Hits	Under 1.5	1.09	1	-2.3%	Low	Win
Jung Hoo Lee	Hits	Under 0.5	1.00	0	-2.0%	Low	Win
Corbin Carroll	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	0	-0.7%	Low	Loss
Lars Nootbaar	Hits	Under 0.5	0.60	1	+5.6%	High	Loss
Rafael Devers	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	2	+3.3%	Medium	Win
Ildemaro Vargas	Hits	Under 0.5	0.74	0	-0.7%	Low	Win
Drew Gilbert	Hits	Under 0.5	0.68	1	+0.3%	Low	Loss
Geraldo Perdomo	Hits	Over 0.5	0.95	2	+3.3%	Medium	Win
Bryce Eldridge	Hits	Over 0.5	0.95	1	+5.9%	High	Win
Turner Hill	Hits	Over 0.5	0.78	1	-1.7%	Low	Win
Nate Furman	Hits	Under 0.5	0.14	0	+22.4%	Low	Win
Nolan Arenado	Hits	Over 0.5	0.76	—	-0.8%	Low	Void
Drew Cavanaugh	Hits	Over 0.5	0.77	0	-0.8%	Low	Loss
Tim Tawa	Hits	Over 0.5	0.88	0	+4.1%	Medium	Loss
Max Kepler	Hits	Under 0.5	0.65	1	-2.9%	Low	Loss
Christian Koss	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	0	+1.1%	Low	Loss
Ryan Waldschmidt	Hits	Over 0.5	0.79	0	+5.2%	High	Loss
Shay Whitcomb	Hits	Under 0.5	0.34	0	+8.2%	High	Win
Gabriel Moreno	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.58	3	+13.0%	High	Win
Corbin Carroll	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.75	0	-0.6%	Low	Loss
Jung Hoo Lee	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.53	1	-3.2%	Low	Win
Lars Nootbaar	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.27	1	+3.3%	Medium	Win
Rafael Devers	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.58	3	+15.9%	High	Win
Geraldo Perdomo	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.67	2	+3.0%	Medium	Win
Bryce Eldridge	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.84	3	+7.1%	High	Win
Drew Gilbert	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.58	4	+2.2%	Low	Win
Turner Hill	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.33	2	-2.7%	Low	Loss
Ildemaro Vargas	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.70	0	+4.9%	Medium	Loss
Nolan Arenado	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.02	—	+12.2%	High	Void
Max Kepler	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.03	1	+1.2%	Low	Win
Nate Furman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	0.14	0	+27.0%	Low	Win
Drew Cavanaugh	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.19	0	-2.1%	Low	Win
Tim Tawa	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.64	0	+7.3%	High	Loss
Ryan Waldschmidt	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.66	0	+10.2%	High	Loss
Christian Koss	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.11	1	+5.1%	High	Win
Shay Whitcomb	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.99	1	-2.6%	Low	Win
Gabriel Moreno	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.88	4	+12.9%	High	Win
Corbin Carroll	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.55	0	+4.9%	Medium	Loss
Rafael Devers	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.26	2	+21.1%	Low	Win
Jung Hoo Lee	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.31	0	+2.9%	Medium	Loss

all settled dates