SEA at LAA
Seattle Mariners visit Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium.
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SEA @ LAA
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
Live now
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Pregame GameTime · frozen
No GameTime pregame forecast for this game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
SEA @ LAA: 42 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsDegraded inputs
Simulated 11:27 AM ET · pregameSeattle Marinersvs
Los Angeles AngelsProjected scoreSEA 4 – 3 LAASEA 61% · from 10,000 simulated games
61%Win chance39%
4.5Projected runs3.3
1–8Likely range0–7
56%Sportsbook44%
Across 10,000 simulated games, SEA won 61% of the time — a clear lean in the simulation.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
Seattle Mariners
LAA 3 – SEA 4
Median simulation score
MoneylineSEA61% simulationsSTRONG
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineLAA +1.554% coverLEAN
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Weston WilsonSEA vs LAA
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs73%7,320 / 10,000 games
George KirbySEA vs LAA
UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts71%7,120 / 10,000 games
Randy ArozarenaSEA vs LAA
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs69%6,880 / 10,000 games
Zach NetoLAA vs SEA
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs66%6,640 / 10,000 games
Zach NetoLAA vs SEA
OVER 1.5 Total bases63%6,290 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
SEA 61%39% LAA
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
SEA wins6,110of 10,000 games
LAA wins3,890of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,100go past nine
Most likely final scores
SEA 2 – 3 LAA3%
SEA 3 – 2 LAA3%
SEA 4 – 3 LAA3%
SEA 2 – 1 LAA3%
SEA 3 – 4 LAA3%
SEA 4 – 2 LAA3%
Expected runs (mean)4.5–3.3SEA–LAA
SEA range1–8p10–p90 runs
LAA range0–7p10–p90 runs
Total runs7p10–p90 3–13
Run line (from simulated margins)SEA −1.5 covers 46% of the time
Extra innings11% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
SEA wins 61% of simulations.
Most common outcome: SEA 2 – LAA 3 (320 / 10,000 simulations).
30% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Weston Wilson OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — 7,320 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
LAA win39%
market44%
Total (median vs line)7
market8
LAA −1.5 cover24%
market57%
RelationshipMODEL HIGHER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07