BAL at NYM
Baltimore Orioles visit New York Mets at Citi Field.
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BAL @ NYM
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
Live now
Checking the live feed…
Pregame GameTime · frozen
- away runs
- 3 (0–7)
- home runs
- 4 (1–9)
Forecast frozen at Sep 16, 11:27 AM ET. It does not change during the game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
BAL @ NYM: 44 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsComplete inputs
Simulated 11:27 AM ET · pregameBaltimore Oriolesvs
New York MetsProjected scoreBAL 3 – 5 NYMNYM 68% · from 10,000 simulated games
32%Win chance68%
3.3Projected runs4.7
0–7Likely range1–9
43%Sportsbook57%
Across 10,000 simulated games, NYM won 68% of the time — a clear lean in the simulation.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
New York Mets
NYM 4 – BAL 3
Median simulation score
MoneylineNYM68% simulationsSTRONG
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineBAL +1.552% coverLEAN
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
A.J. EwingNYM vs BAL
OVER 0.5 Hits78%7,790 / 10,000 games
A.J. EwingNYM vs BAL
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs71%7,120 / 10,000 games
Pete AlonsoBAL vs NYM
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs63%6,260 / 10,000 games
Coby MayoBAL vs NYM
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs62%6,240 / 10,000 games
Francisco LindorNYM vs BAL
OVER 1.5 Total bases59%5,900 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
BAL 32%68% NYM
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
BAL wins3,240of 10,000 games
NYM wins6,760of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,010go past nine
Most likely final scores
BAL 2 – 3 NYM4%
BAL 3 – 4 NYM4%
BAL 2 – 4 NYM3%
BAL 1 – 2 NYM3%
BAL 4 – 5 NYM3%
BAL 1 – 3 NYM3%
Expected runs (mean)3.3–4.7BAL–NYM
BAL range0–7p10–p90 runs
NYM range1–9p10–p90 runs
Total runs7p10–p90 3–13
Run line (from simulated margins)NYM −1.5 covers 49% of the time
Extra innings10% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
NYM wins 68% of simulations.
Most common outcome: BAL 2 – NYM 3 (410 / 10,000 simulations).
30% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: A.J. Ewing OVER 0.5 Hits — 7,790 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
NYM win68%
market57%
Total (median vs line)7
market8.5
NYM −1.5 cover49%
market40%
RelationshipMODEL HIGHER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07