KC at HOU
Kansas City Royals visit Houston Astros at Daikin Park.
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KC @ HOU
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
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Pregame GameTime · frozen
No GameTime pregame forecast for this game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
KC @ HOU: 41 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsDegraded inputs
Simulated 11:27 AM ET · pregameKansas City Royalsvs
Houston AstrosProjected scoreKC 4 – 4 HOUKC 54% · from 10,000 simulated games
54%Win chance46%
4.4Projected runs3.8
1–8Likely range1–7
44%Sportsbook56%
Close call: the simulated means differ by 0.6 runs and the win probabilities sit near even. Team strength enters only through each club's player projections; no separate home-field advantage term is applied.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
Kansas City Royals
HOU 3 – KC 4
Median simulation score
MoneylineKC54% simulationsLEAN
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineHOU +1.559% coverMODERATE
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Salvador PerezKC vs HOU
OVER 0.5 Hits76%7,610 / 10,000 games
Carter JensenKC vs HOU
OVER 0.5 Hits71%7,100 / 10,000 games
Michael MasseyKC vs HOU
OVER 0.5 Hits70%7,030 / 10,000 games
Carter JensenKC vs HOU
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs69%6,880 / 10,000 games
Isaac ParedesHOU vs KC
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs64%6,380 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
KC 54%46% HOU
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
KC wins5,410of 10,000 games
HOU wins4,590of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,070go past nine
Most likely final scores
KC 2 – 3 HOU4%
KC 3 – 4 HOU3%
KC 3 – 2 HOU3%
KC 1 – 2 HOU3%
KC 4 – 5 HOU3%
KC 4 – 3 HOU2%
Expected runs (mean)4.4–3.8KC–HOU
KC range1–8p10–p90 runs
HOU range1–7p10–p90 runs
Total runs8p10–p90 3–13
Run line (from simulated margins)KC −1.5 covers 41% of the time
Extra innings11% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
KC wins 54% of simulations.
Most common outcome: KC 2 – HOU 3 (380 / 10,000 simulations).
30% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Salvador Perez OVER 0.5 Hits — 7,610 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
HOU win46%
market56%
Total (median vs line)8
market9
HOU −1.5 cover29%
market39%
RelationshipMODEL HIGHER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07