ATL at CHC
Atlanta Braves visit Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
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ATL @ CHC
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
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Pregame GameTime · frozen
No GameTime pregame forecast for this game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
ATL @ CHC: 36 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsDegraded inputs
Simulated 11:27 AM ET · pregameAtlanta Bravesvs
Chicago CubsProjected scoreATL 4 – 4 CHCCHC 56% · from 10,000 simulated games
44%Win chance56%
3.7Projected runs4.1
1–7Likely range1–8
44%Sportsbook56%
Across 10,000 simulated games, CHC won 56% of the time — a modest lean.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
Chicago Cubs
CHC 4 – ATL 3
Median simulation score
MoneylineCHC56% simulationsMODERATE
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineATL +1.563% coverSTRONG
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Drake BaldwinATL vs CHC
OVER 0.5 Hits78%7,810 / 10,000 games
JR RitchieATL vs CHC
UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts74%7,410 / 10,000 games
Sean MurphyATL vs CHC
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs72%7,170 / 10,000 games
Ha-Seong KimATL vs CHC
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs69%6,850 / 10,000 games
Michael BuschCHC vs ATL
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs65%6,510 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
ATL 44%56% CHC
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
ATL wins4,390of 10,000 games
CHC wins5,610of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,110go past nine
Most likely final scores
ATL 3 – 4 CHC4%
ATL 2 – 3 CHC4%
ATL 1 – 2 CHC3%
ATL 4 – 5 CHC3%
ATL 3 – 2 CHC3%
ATL 1 – 3 CHC3%
Expected runs (mean)3.7–4.1ATL–CHC
ATL range1–7p10–p90 runs
CHC range1–8p10–p90 runs
Total runs7p10–p90 3–13
Run line (from simulated margins)CHC −1.5 covers 37% of the time
Extra innings11% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
CHC wins 56% of simulations.
Most common outcome: ATL 3 – CHC 4 (390 / 10,000 simulations).
32% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Drake Baldwin OVER 0.5 Hits — 7,810 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
CHC win56%
market56%
Total (median vs line)7
market8
CHC −1.5 cover37%
market39%
RelationshipALIGNED
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07