CWS at CLE
Chicago White Sox visit Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field.
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CWS @ CLE
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
Live now
Checking the live feed…
Pregame GameTime · frozen
- away runs
- 3 (0–7)
- home runs
- 3 (1–7)
Forecast frozen at Sep 16, 11:27 AM ET. It does not change during the game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
CWS @ CLE: 40 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsComplete inputs
Simulated 11:27 AM ET · pregameChicago White Soxvs
Cleveland GuardiansProjected scoreCWS 3 – 4 CLECLE 57% · from 10,000 simulated games
43%Win chance57%
3.1Projected runs3.5
0–7Likely range1–7
39%Sportsbook61%
Across 10,000 simulated games, CLE won 57% of the time — a modest lean.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
Cleveland Guardians
CLE 3 – CWS 3
Median simulation score
MoneylineCLE57% simulationsMODERATE
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineCWS +1.564% coverSTRONG
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Travis BazzanaCLE vs CWS
OVER 0.5 Hits77%7,690 / 10,000 games
Sam AntonacciCWS vs CLE
OVER 0.5 Hits74%7,370 / 10,000 games
Anthony KayCWS vs CLE
OVER 2.5 Strikeouts72%7,220 / 10,000 games
Brenton DoyleCWS vs CLE
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs72%7,160 / 10,000 games
Miguel VargasCWS vs CLE
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs61%6,070 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
CWS 43%57% CLE
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
CWS wins4,300of 10,000 games
CLE wins5,700of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,230go past nine
Most likely final scores
CWS 2 – 3 CLE5%
CWS 1 – 2 CLE5%
CWS 3 – 4 CLE4%
CWS 3 – 2 CLE3%
CWS 2 – 1 CLE3%
CWS 1 – 3 CLE3%
Expected runs (mean)3.1–3.5CWS–CLE
CWS range0–7p10–p90 runs
CLE range1–7p10–p90 runs
Total runs6p10–p90 3–11
Run line (from simulated margins)CLE −1.5 covers 36% of the time
Extra innings12% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
CLE wins 57% of simulations.
Most common outcome: CWS 2 – CLE 3 (470 / 10,000 simulations).
36% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Travis Bazzana OVER 0.5 Hits — 7,690 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
CLE win57%
market61%
Total (median vs line)6
market8
CLE −1.5 cover36%
market43%
RelationshipMODEL LOWER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07