NYY at MIN
New York Yankees visit Minnesota Twins at Target Field.
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NYY @ MIN
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
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Pregame GameTime · frozen
No GameTime pregame forecast for this game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
NYY @ MIN: 38 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsDegraded inputs
Simulated 11:27 AM ET · pregameNew York Yankeesvs
Minnesota TwinsProjected scoreNYY 4 – 3 MINNYY 62% · from 10,000 simulated games
62%Win chance39%
4.1Projected runs2.9
1–8Likely range0–6
57%Sportsbook43%
Across 10,000 simulated games, NYY won 62% of the time — a clear lean in the simulation.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
New York Yankees
MIN 3 – NYY 4
Median simulation score
MoneylineNYY62% simulationsSTRONG
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineMIN +1.554% coverLEAN
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Cody BellingerNYY vs MIN
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs73%7,300 / 10,000 games
Spencer JonesNYY vs MIN
OVER 0.5 Hits73%7,300 / 10,000 games
Ben RiceNYY vs MIN
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs69%6,940 / 10,000 games
Cody BellingerNYY vs MIN
OVER 1.5 Total bases67%6,700 / 10,000 games
Ben RiceNYY vs MIN
OVER 1.5 Total bases62%6,200 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
NYY 62%38% MIN
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
NYY wins6,150of 10,000 games
MIN wins3,850of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,140go past nine
Most likely final scores
NYY 2 – 3 MIN3%
NYY 2 – 1 MIN3%
NYY 1 – 2 MIN3%
NYY 3 – 2 MIN3%
NYY 3 – 4 MIN3%
NYY 3 – 1 MIN3%
Expected runs (mean)4.1–2.9NYY–MIN
NYY range1–8p10–p90 runs
MIN range0–6p10–p90 runs
Total runs7p10–p90 3–12
Run line (from simulated margins)NYY −1.5 covers 47% of the time
Extra innings11% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
NYY wins 62% of simulations.
Most common outcome: NYY 2 – MIN 3 (340 / 10,000 simulations).
31% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Cody Bellinger OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — 7,300 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
MIN win39%
market43%
Total (median vs line)7
market8
MIN −1.5 cover22%
market55%
RelationshipMODEL HIGHER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07