LAD at CIN
Los Angeles Dodgers visit Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park.
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LAD @ CIN
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
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Pregame GameTime · frozen
No GameTime pregame forecast for this game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
LAD @ CIN: 33 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsDegraded inputs
Simulated 11:27 AM ET · pregameLos Angeles Dodgersvs
Cincinnati RedsProjected scoreLAD 3 – 4 CINCIN 60% · from 10,000 simulated games
40%Win chance60%
3.0Projected runs3.6
0–6Likely range1–7
66%Sportsbook34%
Across 10,000 simulated games, CIN won 60% of the time — a clear lean in the simulation.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
Cincinnati Reds
CIN 3 – LAD 3
Median simulation score
MoneylineCIN60% simulationsMODERATE
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineLAD +1.562% coverSTRONG
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Tommy EdmanLAD vs CIN
UNDER 1.5 Hits80%7,970 / 10,000 games
Juan BritoCIN vs LAD
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs78%7,770 / 10,000 games
Miguel RojasLAD vs CIN
UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs73%7,330 / 10,000 games
Sal StewartCIN vs LAD
OVER 0.5 Hits72%7,170 / 10,000 games
Juan BritoCIN vs LAD
OVER 0.5 Hits70%6,970 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
LAD 40%60% CIN
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
LAD wins4,020of 10,000 games
CIN wins5,980of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,230go past nine
Most likely final scores
LAD 2 – 3 CIN5%
LAD 1 – 2 CIN5%
LAD 3 – 4 CIN4%
LAD 1 – 3 CIN3%
LAD 3 – 2 CIN3%
LAD 0 – 1 CIN3%
Expected runs (mean)3.0–3.6LAD–CIN
LAD range0–6p10–p90 runs
CIN range1–7p10–p90 runs
Total runs6p10–p90 3–11
Run line (from simulated margins)CIN −1.5 covers 38% of the time
Extra innings12% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
CIN wins 60% of simulations.
Most common outcome: LAD 2 – CIN 3 (500 / 10,000 simulations).
35% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Tommy Edman UNDER 1.5 Hits — 7,970 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
CIN win60%
market34%
Total (median vs line)6
market8.5
CIN −1.5 cover38%
market47%
RelationshipMODEL HIGHER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07