ATH at TB
Athletics visit Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.
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ATH @ TB
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
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Pregame GameTime · frozen
No GameTime pregame forecast for this game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
ATH @ TB: 38 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsDegraded inputs
Simulated 11:27 AM ET · pregameAthleticsvs
Tampa Bay RaysProjected scoreATH 4 – 3 TBATH 58% · from 10,000 simulated games
58%Win chance42%
4.0Projected runs3.1
1–8Likely range0–6
37%Sportsbook63%
Across 10,000 simulated games, ATH won 58% of the time — a modest lean.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
Athletics
TB 3 – ATH 4
Median simulation score
MoneylineATH58% simulationsMODERATE
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineTB +1.557% coverMODERATE
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Zack GelofATH vs TB
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs79%7,910 / 10,000 games
Shea LangeliersATH vs TB
OVER 0.5 Hits77%7,700 / 10,000 games
Nick MartinezTB vs ATH
UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts72%7,170 / 10,000 games
Shea LangeliersATH vs TB
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs66%6,550 / 10,000 games
Junior CamineroTB vs ATH
OVER 1.5 Total bases65%6,450 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
ATH 58%42% TB
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
ATH wins5,810of 10,000 games
TB wins4,190of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,170go past nine
Most likely final scores
ATH 2 – 3 TB4%
ATH 1 – 2 TB4%
ATH 2 – 1 TB3%
ATH 3 – 4 TB3%
ATH 3 – 2 TB3%
ATH 3 – 1 TB3%
Expected runs (mean)4.0–3.1ATH–TB
ATH range1–8p10–p90 runs
TB range0–6p10–p90 runs
Total runs7p10–p90 3–12
Run line (from simulated margins)ATH −1.5 covers 43% of the time
Extra innings12% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
ATH wins 58% of simulations.
Most common outcome: ATH 2 – TB 3 (400 / 10,000 simulations).
33% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Zack Gelof OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — 7,910 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
TB win42%
market63%
Total (median vs line)7
market8
TB −1.5 cover25%
market44%
RelationshipMODEL HIGHER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07