PHI at WSH
Philadelphia Phillies visit Washington Nationals at Nationals Park.
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PHI @ WSH
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
Live now
Checking the live feed…
Pregame GameTime · frozen
- away runs
- 4 (1–9)
- home runs
- 3 (1–7)
Forecast frozen at Sep 16, 11:27 AM ET. It does not change during the game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
PHI @ WSH: 44 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsComplete inputs
Simulated 11:27 AM ET · pregamePhiladelphia Philliesvs
Washington NationalsProjected scorePHI 5 – 4 WSHPHI 55% · from 10,000 simulated games
55%Win chance45%
4.5Projected runs3.9
1–9Likely range1–7
63%Sportsbook37%
Across 10,000 simulated games, PHI won 55% of the time — a modest lean.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
Philadelphia Phillies
WSH 3 – PHI 4
Median simulation score
MoneylinePHI55% simulationsMODERATE
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineWSH +1.559% coverMODERATE
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Yohandy MoralesWSH vs PHI
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs77%7,690 / 10,000 games
Keibert RuizWSH vs PHI
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs76%7,630 / 10,000 games
Keibert RuizWSH vs PHI
OVER 0.5 Hits75%7,500 / 10,000 games
Jacob YoungWSH vs PHI
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs74%7,390 / 10,000 games
Jorbit VivasWSH vs PHI
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs71%7,060 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
PHI 55%45% WSH
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
PHI wins5,510of 10,000 games
WSH wins4,490of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,080go past nine
Most likely final scores
PHI 3 – 4 WSH3%
PHI 2 – 3 WSH3%
PHI 3 – 2 WSH3%
PHI 4 – 5 WSH3%
PHI 1 – 2 WSH3%
PHI 4 – 3 WSH2%
Expected runs (mean)4.5–3.9PHI–WSH
PHI range1–9p10–p90 runs
WSH range1–7p10–p90 runs
Total runs8p10–p90 3–14
Run line (from simulated margins)PHI −1.5 covers 42% of the time
Extra innings11% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
PHI wins 55% of simulations.
Most common outcome: PHI 3 – WSH 4 (310 / 10,000 simulations).
30% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Yohandy Morales OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — 7,690 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
WSH win45%
market37%
Total (median vs line)8
market8.5
WSH −1.5 cover28%
market49%
RelationshipMODEL LOWER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07