MIA at AZ
Miami Marlins visit Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field.
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MIA @ AZ
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
Live now
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Pregame GameTime · frozen
No GameTime pregame forecast for this game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
MIA @ AZ: 46 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsDegraded inputs
Simulated 11:27 AM ET · pregameMiami Marlinsvs
Arizona DiamondbacksProjected scoreMIA 5 – 4 AZMIA 57% · from 10,000 simulated games
57%Win chance43%
4.8Projected runs3.8
1–9Likely range1–7
45%Sportsbook55%
Across 10,000 simulated games, MIA won 57% of the time — a modest lean.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
Miami Marlins
AZ 3 – MIA 4
Median simulation score
MoneylineMIA57% simulationsMODERATE
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineAZ +1.556% coverMODERATE
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Jakob MarseeMIA vs AZ
OVER 0.5 Hits76%7,550 / 10,000 games
Joe MackMIA vs AZ
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs75%7,540 / 10,000 games
Pavin SmithAZ vs MIA
UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs72%7,210 / 10,000 games
Javier SanojaMIA vs AZ
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs71%7,080 / 10,000 games
Otto LopezMIA vs AZ
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs70%6,960 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
MIA 57%43% AZ
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
MIA wins5,750of 10,000 games
AZ wins4,250of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,030go past nine
Most likely final scores
MIA 2 – 3 AZ3%
MIA 3 – 4 AZ3%
MIA 4 – 5 AZ2%
MIA 3 – 2 AZ2%
MIA 1 – 2 AZ2%
MIA 4 – 3 AZ2%
Expected runs (mean)4.8–3.8MIA–AZ
MIA range1–9p10–p90 runs
AZ range1–7p10–p90 runs
Total runs8p10–p90 3–14
Run line (from simulated margins)MIA −1.5 covers 45% of the time
Extra innings10% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
MIA wins 57% of simulations.
Most common outcome: MIA 2 – AZ 3 (330 / 10,000 simulations).
29% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Jakob Marsee OVER 0.5 Hits — 7,550 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
AZ win43%
market55%
Total (median vs line)8
market9
AZ −1.5 cover26%
market38%
RelationshipMODEL HIGHER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07