MIL at PIT
Milwaukee Brewers visit Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park.
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MIL @ PIT
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
Live now
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Pregame GameTime · frozen
No GameTime pregame forecast for this game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
MIL @ PIT: 39 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsDegraded inputs
Simulated 11:27 AM ET · pregameMilwaukee Brewersvs
Pittsburgh PiratesProjected scoreMIL 6 – 4 PITMIL 63% · from 10,000 simulated games
63%Win chance37%
6.1Projected runs4.4
2–11Likely range1–8
55%Sportsbook45%
Across 10,000 simulated games, MIL won 63% of the time — a clear lean in the simulation.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
Milwaukee Brewers
PIT 4 – MIL 6
Median simulation score
MoneylineMIL63% simulationsSTRONG
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineMIL -1.552% coverLEAN
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Jackson ChourioMIL vs PIT
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs75%7,490 / 10,000 games
William ContrerasMIL vs PIT
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs74%7,370 / 10,000 games
Joey OrtizMIL vs PIT
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs67%6,660 / 10,000 games
Bryan ReynoldsPIT vs MIL
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs64%6,420 / 10,000 games
Jackson ChourioMIL vs PIT
OVER 1.5 Total bases63%6,310 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
MIL 63%37% PIT
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
MIL wins6,320of 10,000 games
PIT wins3,680of 10,000 games
Extra innings860go past nine
Most likely final scores
MIL 4 – 5 PIT2%
MIL 2 – 3 PIT2%
MIL 3 – 4 PIT2%
MIL 4 – 3 PIT2%
MIL 5 – 4 PIT2%
MIL 5 – 6 PIT2%
Expected runs (mean)6.1–4.4MIL–PIT
MIL range2–11p10–p90 runs
PIT range1–8p10–p90 runs
Total runs10p10–p90 5–17
Run line (from simulated margins)MIL −1.5 covers 52% of the time
Extra innings9% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
MIL wins 63% of simulations.
Most common outcome: MIL 4 – PIT 5 (220 / 10,000 simulations).
24% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Jackson Chourio OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — 7,490 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
PIT win37%
market45%
Total (median vs line)10
market7.5
PIT −1.5 cover23%
market56%
RelationshipMODEL HIGHER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07