BOS at TEX
Boston Red Sox visit Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field.
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BOS @ TEX
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
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Pregame GameTime · frozen
No GameTime pregame forecast for this game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
BOS @ TEX: 42 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsDegraded inputs
Simulated 11:27 AM ET · pregameBoston Red Soxvs
Texas RangersProjected scoreBOS 3 – 4 TEXTEX 56% · from 10,000 simulated games
44%Win chance56%
3.4Projected runs3.7
0–7Likely range1–7
50%Sportsbook50%
Across 10,000 simulated games, TEX won 56% of the time — a modest lean.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
Texas Rangers
TEX 3 – BOS 3
Median simulation score
MoneylineTEX56% simulationsMODERATE
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineBOS +1.564% coverSTRONG
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Nick SogardBOS vs TEX
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs80%8,030 / 10,000 games
Trevor StoryBOS vs TEX
OVER 0.5 Hits75%7,520 / 10,000 games
Danny JansenTEX vs BOS
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs71%7,110 / 10,000 games
Nick SogardBOS vs TEX
OVER 0.5 Hits69%6,900 / 10,000 games
Corey SeagerTEX vs BOS
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs67%6,700 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
BOS 44%56% TEX
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
BOS wins4,380of 10,000 games
TEX wins5,620of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,230go past nine
Most likely final scores
BOS 2 – 3 TEX5%
BOS 1 – 2 TEX4%
BOS 3 – 4 TEX4%
BOS 3 – 2 TEX3%
BOS 4 – 3 TEX3%
BOS 2 – 1 TEX3%
Expected runs (mean)3.4–3.7BOS–TEX
BOS range0–7p10–p90 runs
TEX range1–7p10–p90 runs
Total runs7p10–p90 3–12
Run line (from simulated margins)TEX −1.5 covers 36% of the time
Extra innings12% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
TEX wins 56% of simulations.
Most common outcome: BOS 2 – TEX 3 (470 / 10,000 simulations).
34% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Nick Sogard OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — 8,030 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
TEX win56%
market50%
Total (median vs line)7
market8
TEX −1.5 cover36%
market63%
RelationshipMODEL HIGHER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07