41.0%

71–102 on 173 decisive

Combined audit across the sports that had settled rows on 2026-08-03. Pushes excluded. Pending games never count as losses.

At a glance

Hit

model agreed and the line cleared

Miss

102

model agreed but the line did not clear

Push

final stat tied the line — excluded from hit rate

Pending

no games still pending on this date

MLB

41.0%

71–102 on 173

Full MLB audit →

Biggest hits

MLBBrandon PfaadtUnder 4.5 Strikeouts+24.1pp edgeactual 3
MLBBrandon PfaadtUnder 3.5 Strikeouts+23.5pp edgeactual 3
MLBBrandon SproatUnder 5.5 Strikeouts+18.0pp edgeactual 4
MLBEzequiel DuranOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+17.9pp edgeactual 6
MLBMichael KingOver 4.5 Strikeouts+15.9pp edgeactual 5

Biggest misses

MLBShane BieberUnder 3.5 Strikeouts+16.2pp edgeactual 6
MLBIan SeymourUnder 4.5 Strikeouts+11.8pp edgeactual 9
MLBJonathan ArandaUnder 1.5 Hits+10.4pp edgeactual 4
MLBRichie PalaciosUnder 1.5 Total Bases+8.9pp edgeactual 5
MLBJonathan ArandaUnder 1.5 Total Bases+7.7pp edgeactual 5

MLB settled games · projection vs actual

WSH @ PHI

9–514 dec64.3%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Trea Turner	Hits	Under 1.5	1.11	0	-3.1%	Low	Win
Bryce Harper	Hits	Under 0.5	0.85	1	+0.1%	Low	Loss
Daylen Lile	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	1	-2.0%	Low	Win
Keibert Ruiz	Hits	Under 0.5	0.73	2	+2.6%	Medium	Loss
Alec Bohm	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	1	-0.8%	Low	Win
Dylan Crews	Hits	Over 0.5	1.02	—	+4.0%	Medium	Void
James Wood	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	1	-2.7%	Low	Win
CJ Abrams	Hits	Over 0.5	1.09	0	+5.1%	High	Loss
Brandon Marsh	Hits	Under 0.5	0.82	0	-2.0%	Low	Win
J.T. Realmuto	Hits	Over 0.5	0.83	—	-1.7%	Low	Void
Bryson Stott	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	1	-0.3%	Low	Win
Kyle Schwarber	Hits	Under 0.5	0.76	0	-1.8%	Low	Win
Justin Crawford	Hits	Over 0.5	0.85	—	+2.9%	Medium	Void
Bryan De La Cruz	Hits	Over 0.5	1.12	0	+15.0%	High	Loss
Brady House	Hits	Over 0.5	0.93	0	+8.1%	High	Loss
Jorbit Vivas	Hits	Under 0.5	0.61	0	-2.5%	Low	Win
Aaron Nola	Strikeouts	Under 5.5	4.94	5	+5.9%	High	Win

STL @ NYY

10–919 dec52.6%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Michael McGreevy	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	3.46	5	+6.8%	High	Loss
Cam Schlittler	Strikeouts	Over 6.5	8.36	6	+21.7%	Low	Loss
Ben Rice	Hits	Under 0.5	0.80	0	+1.1%	Low	Win
Trent Grisham	Hits	Under 0.5	0.51	2	+13.6%	High	Loss
Paul Goldschmidt	Hits	Under 0.5	0.78	—	-1.0%	Low	Void
Jasson Domínguez	Hits	Over 0.5	0.89	1	+0.6%	Low	Win
Jordan Walker	Hits	Over 0.5	1.00	2	+6.0%	High	Win
Alec Burleson	Hits	Over 0.5	1.10	3	+8.7%	High	Win
JJ Wetherholt	Hits	Over 0.5	0.79	1	-1.8%	Low	Win
Masyn Winn	Hits	Over 0.5	0.94	0	+6.1%	High	Loss
Spencer Jones	Hits	Under 0.5	0.66	0	-1.5%	Low	Win
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	0	-1.6%	Low	Loss
Ryan McMahon	Hits	Under 0.5	0.49	2	+3.1%	Medium	Loss
Nathan Church	Hits	Over 0.5	0.66	2	+3.3%	Medium	Win
Austin Wells	Hits	Over 0.5	0.48	2	-1.7%	Low	Win
Jimmy Crooks	Hits	Over 0.5	0.41	1	+0.7%	Low	Win
Ben Rice	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.60	0	+4.0%	Medium	Loss
Trent Grisham	Total Bases	Under 1.5	0.79	6	+5.7%	High	Loss
Jordan Walker	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.45	2	+6.6%	High	Win
Jasson Domínguez	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.44	1	+7.2%	High	Loss
Paul Goldschmidt	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.30	—	+5.9%	High	Void

PIT @ MIL

7–1623 dec30.4%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Brandon Sproat	Strikeouts	Under 5.5	4.36	4	+18.0%	High	Win
Bubba Chandler	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	4.56	5	+3.9%	Medium	Loss
Jake Mangum	Hits	Over 1.5	1.23	1	+4.9%	Medium	Loss
Jackson Chourio	Hits	Over 0.5	1.18	0	+8.0%	High	Loss
William Contreras	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	0	-2.6%	Low	Loss
Nick Gonzales	Hits	Over 0.5	1.24	0	+8.4%	High	Loss
Brice Turang	Hits	Over 0.5	1.28	0	+11.7%	High	Loss
Brandon Lowe	Hits	Over 0.5	1.20	1	+11.5%	High	Win
Christian Yelich	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	0	+0.7%	Low	Loss
Spencer Horwitz	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	1	+3.3%	Medium	Win
Bryan Reynolds	Hits	Over 0.5	0.89	2	+5.1%	High	Win
Esmerlyn Valdez	Hits	Over 0.5	0.68	0	-3.4%	Low	Loss
Jake Bauers	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	1	+15.0%	High	Win
Luis Lara	Hits	Over 0.5	0.65	—	-2.7%	Low	Void
Garrett Mitchell	Hits	Under 0.5	0.57	0	-0.4%	Low	Win
Cooper Pratt	Hits	Over 0.5	1.01	0	+12.5%	High	Loss
Jacob Gonzalez	Hits	Over 0.5	0.64	0	+3.8%	Medium	Loss
David Hamilton	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	1	+7.4%	High	Win
Jhostynxon Garcia	Hits	Over 0.5	0.44	—	-0.7%	Low	Void
Brandon Lowe	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.17	1	+17.4%	High	Loss
Jackson Chourio	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.71	0	+10.6%	High	Loss
Jake Mangum	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.56	1	+8.7%	High	Loss
Brice Turang	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.00	0	+17.7%	High	Loss
William Contreras	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.41	0	+6.9%	High	Loss
Nick Gonzales	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.47	0	+11.2%	High	Loss

SF @ TEX

9–2534 dec26.5%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Jung Hoo Lee	Hits	Over 1.5	1.12	3	-1.3%	Low	Win
Brandon Nimmo	Hits	Over 0.5	1.01	0	-0.4%	Low	Loss
Bryce Eldridge	Hits	Under 0.5	0.80	—	-1.7%	Low	Void
Joc Pederson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	1	-2.0%	Low	Win
Corey Seager	Hits	Under 0.5	0.75	1	-0.3%	Low	Loss
Wyatt Langford	Hits	Over 0.5	1.00	0	+3.2%	Medium	Loss
Rafael Devers	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	0	+8.1%	High	Loss
Jake Burger	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	0	+0.8%	Low	Loss
Willy Adames	Hits	Over 0.5	0.78	0	-1.9%	Low	Loss
Ezequiel Duran	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	4	+4.7%	Medium	Win
Evan Carter	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	0	+0.0%	Low	Loss
Christian Koss	Hits	Under 0.5	0.49	1	+4.4%	Medium	Loss
Grant McCray	Hits	Under 0.5	0.30	0	+12.1%	High	Win
Drew Cavanaugh	Hits	Under 0.5	0.52	—	+1.0%	Low	Void
Nicky Lopez	Hits	Over 0.5	0.60	0	-3.1%	Low	Loss
Austin Wynns	Hits	Under 0.5	0.29	1	+6.7%	High	Loss
Jung Hoo Lee	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.12	8	+3.9%	Medium	Win
Bryce Eldridge	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.69	—	-1.7%	Low	Void
Brandon Nimmo	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.72	0	+0.1%	Low	Loss
Rafael Devers	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.52	0	+14.5%	High	Loss
Corey Seager	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.71	1	+1.6%	Low	Loss
Joc Pederson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.90	1	+5.8%	High	Loss
Wyatt Langford	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.95	0	+8.1%	High	Loss
Willy Adames	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.72	0	+5.1%	High	Loss
Jake Burger	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.81	0	+8.2%	High	Loss
Ezequiel Duran	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.15	6	+17.9%	High	Win
Evan Carter	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.61	0	+8.2%	High	Loss
Grant McCray	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	0.80	1	+9.1%	High	Win
Christian Koss	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	0.83	1	+5.5%	High	Win
Drew Cavanaugh	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	0.88	—	+4.9%	Medium	Void
Nicky Lopez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.20	0	+6.1%	High	Loss
Austin Wynns	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 0.5	0.50	1	+2.1%	Low	Loss
Jung Hoo Lee	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.82	9	+8.9%	High	Win
Bryce Eldridge	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.34	—	+0.0%	Low	Void
Rafael Devers	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.01	0	+14.4%	High	Loss
Brandon Nimmo	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.68	0	+9.4%	High	Loss
Corey Seager	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.45	1	+5.8%	High	Loss
Joc Pederson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.79	1	+13.0%	High	Loss
Wyatt Langford	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.97	0	+18.6%	High	Loss

TOR @ HOU

12–1224 dec50.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Yordan Alvarez	Hits	Over 1.5	1.25	1	+5.5%	High	Loss
Nathan Lukes	Hits	Under 0.5	0.70	0	+6.6%	High	Win
Yainer Diaz	Hits	Over 0.5	1.10	2	+2.5%	Low	Win
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	1.14	0	+4.3%	Medium	Loss
Ernie Clement	Hits	Over 0.5	1.01	0	+1.2%	Low	Loss
Isaac Paredes	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	0	-1.5%	Low	Loss
Christian Walker	Hits	Over 0.5	0.99	1	+3.6%	Medium	Win
Daulton Varsho	Hits	Over 0.5	0.94	1	+2.4%	Low	Win
Kazuma Okamoto	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	2	+3.3%	Medium	Win
George Springer	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	1	+11.3%	High	Win
Jose Altuve	Hits	Over 0.5	0.90	2	+1.2%	Low	Win
Cam Smith	Hits	Over 0.5	0.77	2	-2.2%	Low	Win
Brandon Valenzuela	Hits	Over 0.5	0.77	—	+5.1%	High	Void
Taylor Trammell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.72	0	+5.9%	High	Loss
LaMonte Wade Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	0.52	—	+1.9%	Low	Void
Yordan Alvarez	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.33	1	+9.0%	High	Loss
Kazuma Okamoto	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.77	2	+10.8%	High	Win
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.46	0	+4.6%	Medium	Loss
Nathan Lukes	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.02	0	+0.7%	Low	Win
Isaac Paredes	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.47	0	+6.0%	High	Loss
Yainer Diaz	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.72	2	+11.8%	High	Win
Christian Walker	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.85	1	+14.3%	High	Loss
Daulton Varsho	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.27	1	+2.3%	Low	Loss
Ernie Clement	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.45	0	+7.4%	High	Loss
Cristian Javier	Strikeouts	Under 3.5	3.56	2	+5.6%	High	Win
Shane Bieber	Strikeouts	Under 3.5	3.06	6	+16.2%	High	Loss

TB @ COL

11–2031 dec35.5%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Ian Seymour	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	3.88	9	+11.8%	High	Loss
Michael Lorenzen	Strikeouts	Under 3.5	3.03	0	-0.9%	Low	Win
Chandler Simpson	Hits	Under 1.5	1.16	2	+4.0%	Medium	Loss
Junior Caminero	Hits	Under 1.5	0.88	2	+16.1%	High	Loss
Jonathan Aranda	Hits	Under 1.5	0.97	4	+10.4%	High	Loss
Jake McCarthy	Hits	Under 1.5	0.98	1	+5.2%	High	Win
Cedric Mullins	Hits	Under 1.5	0.75	2	+13.2%	High	Loss
Cole Carrigg	Hits	Over 1.5	1.16	2	+0.7%	Low	Win
Victor Mesa Jr.	Hits	Under 1.5	0.68	0	+11.3%	High	Win
Kyle Karros	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	2	-1.8%	Low	Win
TJ Rumfield	Hits	Over 0.5	1.08	0	+0.5%	Low	Loss
Hunter Goodman	Hits	Over 0.5	0.99	0	-3.1%	Low	Loss
Richie Palacios	Hits	Under 0.5	0.48	2	+15.1%	High	Loss
Willi Castro	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	2	-0.6%	Low	Win
Tyler Freeman	Hits	Under 0.5	0.67	1	+3.6%	Medium	Loss
Taylor Walls	Hits	Under 0.5	0.58	2	+6.7%	High	Loss
Ezequiel Tovar	Hits	Under 0.5	0.53	4	+0.3%	Low	Loss
Junior Caminero	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.73	8	-0.7%	Low	Loss
Jonathan Aranda	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.30	5	+7.7%	High	Loss
Chandler Simpson	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.32	2	+5.3%	High	Loss
Cedric Mullins	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.57	3	-3.0%	Low	Loss
Jake McCarthy	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.75	2	+2.2%	Low	Win
Cole Carrigg	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.83	3	+5.0%	High	Win
Victor Mesa Jr.	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.45	0	-3.1%	Low	Loss
Hunter Goodman	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.05	0	+7.5%	High	Loss
TJ Rumfield	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.53	0	+2.1%	Low	Loss
Kyle Karros	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.32	2	-1.1%	Low	Win
Richie Palacios	Total Bases	Under 1.5	0.78	5	+8.9%	High	Loss
Willi Castro	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.74	4	+11.4%	High	Win
Taylor Walls	Total Bases	Under 1.5	0.79	2	+7.4%	High	Loss
Tyler Freeman	Total Bases	Under 1.5	0.79	1	+6.0%	High	Win

SD @ AZ

13–1528 dec46.4%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Michael King	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	5.35	5	+15.9%	High	Win
Brandon Pfaadt	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	2.63	3	+24.1%	Low	Win
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Hits	Under 1.5	1.05	0	+3.0%	Medium	Win
Jackson Merrill	Hits	Over 1.5	1.11	1	+0.9%	Low	Loss
Ty France	Hits	Over 0.5	1.29	0	+7.2%	High	Loss
Jake Cronenworth	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	0	-2.4%	Low	Loss
Luis Rengifo	Hits	Over 0.5	0.89	1	-2.6%	Low	Win
Manny Machado	Hits	Over 0.5	0.99	0	+1.5%	Low	Loss
Gabriel Moreno	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	—	+4.1%	Medium	Void
Ketel Marte	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	0	+0.7%	Low	Loss
Corbin Carroll	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	0	-3.0%	Low	Loss
Xander Bogaerts	Hits	Under 0.5	0.73	1	+0.1%	Low	Loss
Geraldo Perdomo	Hits	Over 0.5	0.93	2	+0.9%	Low	Win
Gavin Sheets	Hits	Under 0.5	0.58	—	+5.6%	High	Void
Nolan Arenado	Hits	Over 0.5	0.77	1	-0.4%	Low	Win
Luis Campusano	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	2	+7.0%	High	Win
Max Kepler	Hits	Over 0.5	0.72	0	-0.3%	Low	Loss
Tim Tawa	Hits	Over 0.5	0.60	3	-3.3%	Low	Win
Ryan Waldschmidt	Hits	Over 0.5	1.19	0	+22.3%	Low	Loss
Adrian Del Castillo	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	1	+3.8%	Medium	Win
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.48	0	-1.7%	Low	Win
Corbin Carroll	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.65	0	+4.1%	Medium	Loss
Jackson Merrill	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.88	1	+9.8%	High	Loss
Ty France	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.90	0	+10.1%	High	Loss
Ketel Marte	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.66	0	+7.5%	High	Loss
Manny Machado	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.69	0	+9.1%	High	Loss
Jake Cronenworth	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.07	0	-0.1%	Low	Win
Gabriel Moreno	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.62	—	+10.5%	High	Void
Luis Rengifo	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.26	1	+1.2%	Low	Loss
Xander Bogaerts	Total Bases	Under 1.5	0.96	1	-1.9%	Low	Win
Brandon Pfaadt	Strikeouts	Under 3.5	2.63	3	+23.5%	Low	Win

all settled dates