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71–102 on 173 decisive picks · 41.0%2026-08-03
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MLB model board · 2026-08-03

8 MLB games · 156 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDAug 3, 4:48 PM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
50
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
23
model vs market · context
Small gap
66
4 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
13
no projection emitted
Strikeouts7 gap ≥ 5 pp·12 totalHits33 gap ≥ 5 pp·126 totalHits + Runs + RBIs10 gap ≥ 5 pp·18 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.TB vs COL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsUnder 1.5+11.3%
proj 0.68-257 · draftkings
Cedric Mullins
Cedric MullinsTB vs COL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsUnder 1.5+13.2%
proj 0.75-212 · draftkings
Ty France
Ty FranceSD vs AZ
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+7.2%
proj 1.29-267 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice TurangMIL vs PIT
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+11.7%
proj 1.28-215 · draftkings
Brandon Lowe
Brandon LowePIT vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+11.5%
proj 1.2-202 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson ChourioMIL vs PIT
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+8%
proj 1.18-225 · draftkings
Nick Gonzales
Nick GonzalesPIT vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+8.4%
proj 1.24-219 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior CamineroTB vs COL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsUnder 1.5+16.1%
proj 0.88-154 · draftkings
Filters · 156 of 156 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Citizens Bank Park19 leansFinal · graded

WSH@PHI

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

first pitch
6:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Andrew Alvarez
probable · awayAndrew Alvarez
WSH
Aaron Nola
probable · homeAaron Nola
PHI
Strikeouts
Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
PHIvsWSHPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER5.5
Projection4.94
Edge+5.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.3 K across 22 starts
-132 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Bryan De La Cruz
Bryan De La Cruz
PHIvsWSHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.12
Edge+15%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.12
  • SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 8 games
-161 · draftkings
Brady House
Brady House
WSHvsPHIBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge+8.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 50 games
-158 · draftkings
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
WSHvsPHIBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.09
Edge+5.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 109 games
-216 · draftkings
Dylan Crews
Dylan Crews
WSHvsPHIBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge+4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 60 games
-222 · draftkings
Justin Crawford
Justin Crawford
PHIvsWSHBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.85
Edge+2.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 99 games
-171 · draftkings
Keibert Ruiz
Keibert Ruiz
WSHvsPHIBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.73
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 71 games
+172 · draftkings
Trea Turner
Trea Turner
PHIvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.11
Edge−3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 109 games
-225 · draftkings
James Wood
James Wood
WSHvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge−2.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 113 games
-222 · draftkings
Jorbit Vivas
Jorbit Vivas
WSHvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge−2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 79 games
+111 · draftkings
Daylen Lile
Daylen Lile
WSHvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge−2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 111 games
-235 · draftkings
Brandon Marsh
Brandon Marsh
PHIvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.82
Edge−2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 106 games
+157 · draftkings
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
PHIvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.76
Edge−1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 106 games
+143 · draftkings
J.T. Realmuto
J.T. Realmuto
PHIvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.83
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 81 games
-201 · draftkings
Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm
PHIvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge−0.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 107 games
-231 · draftkings
Bryson Stott
Bryson Stott
PHIvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge−0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 106 games
-193 · draftkings
Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper
PHIvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.85
Edge+0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 111 games
+180 · draftkings
Jose Tena
WSH @ PHIBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Nasim Nunez
WSH @ PHIBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Yankee Stadium20 leansFinal · graded

STL@NYY

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees

first pitch
7:05 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Michael McGreevy
probable · awayMichael McGreevy
STL
Cam Schlittler
probable · homeCam Schlittler
NYY
Strikeouts
Michael McGreevy
Michael McGreevy
STLvsNYYPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER4.5
Projection3.46
Edge+6.8%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 3.6 K across 21 starts
-170 · draftkings
Cam Schlittler
Cam SchlittlerModel anomaly
NYYvsSTLPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER6.5
Projection8.36
Edge+21.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 9.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 7.2 K across 23 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-138 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Trent Grisham
Trent Grisham
NYYvsSTLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.51
Edge+13.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 91 games
+178 · draftkings
Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson
STLvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.1
Edge+8.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 111 games
-189 · draftkings
Masyn Winn
Masyn Winn
STLvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+6.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 103 games
-175 · draftkings
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
STLvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 110 games
-190 · draftkings
Nathan Church
Nathan Church
STLvsNYYBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.66
Edge+3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 88 games
-118 · draftkings
Ryan McMahon
Ryan McMahon
NYYvsSTLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.49
Edge+3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.59 across 85 games
+111 · draftkings
Lars Nootbaar
Lars Nootbaar
STLvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.64
Edge−3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 48 games
-147 · draftkings
JJ Wetherholt
JJ Wetherholt
STLvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.79
Edge−1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 105 games
-177 · draftkings
Austin Wells
Austin Wells
NYYvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.48
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.45 across 77 games
-103 · draftkings
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYYvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge−1.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 104 games
-168 · draftkings
Spencer Jones
Spencer Jones
NYYvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.66
Edge−1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 37 games
+127 · draftkings
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
NYYvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.8
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 107 games
+179 · draftkings
Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt
NYYvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge−1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 83 games
+159 · draftkings
Jimmy Crooks
Jimmy Crooks
STLvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.41
Edge+0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.42 across 36 games
+122 · draftkings
Jasson Domínguez
Jasson Domínguez
NYYvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.89
Edge+0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 51 games
-204 · draftkings
Ivan Herrera
STL @ NYYBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Jose Caballero
STL @ NYYBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Jose Fermin
STL @ NYYBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
American Family Field20 leansFinal · graded

PIT@MIL

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers

first pitch
7:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Bubba Chandler
probable · awayBubba Chandler
PIT
Brandon Sproat
probable · homeBrandon Sproat
MIL
Strikeouts
Brandon Sproat
Brandon Sproat
MILvsPITPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER5.5
Projection4.36
Edge+18%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.8 K across 20 starts
-125 · draftkings
Bubba Chandler
Bubba Chandler
PITvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER4.5
Projection4.56
Edge+3.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.4 K across 21 starts
+122 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsPITBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+15%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 101 games
-154 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsPITBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+12.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 37 games
-146 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsPITBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.28
Edge+11.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 105 games
-215 · draftkings
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
PITvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.2
Edge+11.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 104 games
-202 · draftkings
Nick Gonzales
Nick Gonzales
PITvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+8.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.19 across 107 games
-219 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsPITBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.18
Edge+8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.16 across 77 games
-225 · draftkings
David Hamilton
David Hamilton
MILvsPITBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+7.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 75 games
-105 · draftkings
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds
PITvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.89
Edge+5.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 113 games
-166 · draftkings
Jake Mangum
Jake Mangum
PITvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.23
Edge+4.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 83 games
+193 · draftkings
Jacob Gonzalez
Jacob Gonzalez
PITvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.64
Edge+3.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 44 games
-111 · draftkings
Spencer Horwitz
Spencer Horwitz
PITvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 75 games
-171 · draftkings
Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn Valdez
PITvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge−3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 44 games
-159 · draftkings
Luis Lara
Luis Lara
MILvsPITBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.65
Edge−2.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 17 games
-148 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsPITBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge−2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 103 games
-220 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsPITBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 74 games
-184 · draftkings
Jhostynxon Garcia
Jhostynxon Garcia
PITvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.44
Edge−0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.57 across 14 games
+109 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsPITBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.57
Edge−0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 99 games
+111 · draftkings
Endy Rodriguez
PIT @ MILBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Wrigley Field0 leans

LAD@CHC

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs

first pitch
8:05 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Justin Wrobleski
probable · awayJustin Wrobleski
LAD
Matthew Boyd
probable · homeMatthew Boyd
CHC
prop lines pending
Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.
Globe Life Field36 leansFinal · graded

SF@TEX

San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers

first pitch
8:05 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Logan Webb
probable · awayLogan Webb
SF
Cal Quantrill
probable · homeCal Quantrill
TEX
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Ezequiel Duran
Ezequiel Duran
TEXvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+17.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 101 games
+121 · draftkings
Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers
SFvsTEXBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.52
Edge+14.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 112 games
-116 · draftkings
Grant McCray
Grant McCray
SFvsTEXBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.3
Edge+12.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.30 across 10 games
+112 · draftkings
Grant McCray
Grant McCray
SFvsTEXBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.8
Edge+9.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 10 games
-170 · draftkings
Jake Burger
Jake Burger
TEXvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.81
Edge+8.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.93 across 107 games
+109 · draftkings
Evan Carter
Evan Carter
TEXvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.61
Edge+8.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.31 across 93 games
+124 · draftkings
Wyatt Langford
Wyatt Langford
TEXvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.95
Edge+8.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.20 across 60 games
-104 · draftkings
Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers
SFvsTEXBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+8.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 112 games
-197 · draftkings
Austin Wynns
Austin Wynns
TEXvsSFBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.29
Edge+6.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.27 across 22 games
-113 · draftkings
Nicky Lopez
Nicky Lopez
TEXvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.2
Edge+6.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.40 across 58 games
-168 · draftkings
Joc Pederson
Joc Pederson
TEXvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.9
Edge+5.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.60 across 101 games
-111 · draftkings
Christian Koss
Christian Koss
SFvsTEXBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.83
Edge+5.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 18 games
-172 · draftkings
Willy Adames
Willy Adames
SFvsTEXBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.72
Edge+5.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.84 across 107 games
+103 · draftkings
Drew Cavanaugh
Drew Cavanaugh
SFvsTEXBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.88
Edge+4.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 22 games
-184 · draftkings
Ezequiel Duran
Ezequiel Duran
TEXvsSFBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 101 games
-174 · draftkings
Christian Koss
Christian Koss
SFvsTEXBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.49
Edge+4.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.39 across 18 games
+117 · draftkings
Jung Hoo Lee
Jung Hoo Lee
SFvsTEXBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.12
Edge+3.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.05 across 102 games
-140 · draftkings
Wyatt Langford
Wyatt Langford
TEXvsSFBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+3.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 60 games
-200 · draftkings
Nicky Lopez
Nicky Lopez
TEXvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.6
Edge−3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 58 games
-137 · draftkings
Heliot Ramos
Heliot Ramos
SFvsTEXBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 74 games
-238 · draftkings
Austin Wynns
Austin Wynns
TEXvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.5
Edge+2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.50 across 22 games
+109 · draftkings
Joc Pederson
Joc Pederson
TEXvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge−2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 101 games
-215 · draftkings
Heliot Ramos
Heliot Ramos
SFvsTEXBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.79
Edge+2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.97 across 74 games
-115 · draftkings
Willy Adames
Willy Adames
SFvsTEXBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge−1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 107 games
-180 · draftkings
Bryce Eldridge
Bryce Eldridge
SFvsTEXBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.69
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 70 games
-126 · draftkings
Bryce Eldridge
Bryce Eldridge
SFvsTEXBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.8
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 70 games
+161 · draftkings
Corey Seager
Corey Seager
TEXvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.71
Edge+1.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.72 across 53 games
-112 · draftkings
Jung Hoo Lee
Jung Hoo Lee
SFvsTEXBatterHits
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.12
Edge−1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 102 games
+165 · draftkings
Drew Cavanaugh
Drew Cavanaugh
SFvsTEXBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge+1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.55 across 22 games
+108 · draftkings
Jake Burger
Jake Burger
TEXvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+0.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 107 games
-181 · draftkings
Brandon Nimmo
Brandon Nimmo
TEXvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge−0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 106 games
-236 · draftkings
Corey Seager
Corey Seager
TEXvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.75
Edge−0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 53 games
+158 · draftkings
Brandon Nimmo
Brandon Nimmo
TEXvsSFBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.72
Edge+0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.84 across 106 games
-119 · draftkings
Evan Carter
Evan Carter
TEXvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge0%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.58 across 93 games
-157 · draftkings
Osleivis Basabe
Osleivis Basabe
SFvsTEXBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (4 games of log data)
— · draftkings
Osleivis Basabe
Osleivis Basabe
SFvsTEXBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (4 games of log data)
— · draftkings
Daikin Park20 leansFinal · graded

TOR@HOU

Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros

first pitch
8:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Shane Bieber
probable · awayShane Bieber
TOR
Cristian Javier
probable · homeCristian Javier
HOU
Strikeouts
Shane Bieber
Shane Bieber
TORvsHOUPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER3.5
Projection3.06
Edge+16.2%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 3.1 K across 7 starts
+128 · draftkings
Cristian Javier
Cristian Javier
HOUvsTORPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER3.5
Projection3.56
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 2.6 K across 8 starts
+131 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
George Springer
George Springer
TORvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+11.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 81 games
-186 · draftkings
Nathan Lukes
Nathan Lukes
TORvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+6.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 75 games
+190 · draftkings
Taylor Trammell
Taylor Trammell
HOUvsTORBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+5.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 54 games
-119 · draftkings
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
HOUvsTORBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.25
Edge+5.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 111 games
+186 · draftkings
Brandon Valenzuela
Brandon Valenzuela
TORvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.77
Edge+5.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 60 games
-133 · draftkings
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TORvsHOUBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.14
Edge+4.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 106 games
-239 · draftkings
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
HOUvsTORBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.99
Edge+3.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 109 games
-204 · draftkings
Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto
TORvsHOUBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge+3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 108 games
-191 · draftkings
Yainer Diaz
Yainer Diaz
HOUvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.1
Edge+2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 52 games
-249 · draftkings
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
TORvsHOUBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 93 games
-199 · draftkings
Cam Smith
Cam Smith
HOUvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.77
Edge−2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 106 games
-183 · draftkings
LaMonte Wade Jr.
LaMonte Wade Jr.
HOUvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge+1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.54 across 24 games
+104 · draftkings
Isaac Paredes
Isaac Paredes
HOUvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge−1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 106 games
-216 · draftkings
Jose Altuve
Jose Altuve
HOUvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.9
Edge+1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 88 games
-185 · draftkings
Ernie Clement
Ernie Clement
TORvsHOUBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 109 games
-227 · draftkings
Jeremy Pena
TOR @ HOUBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Andres Gimenez
TOR @ HOUBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Jesus Sanchez
TOR @ HOUBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Coors Field20 leansFinal · graded

TB@COL

Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies

first pitch
8:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Ian Seymour
probable · awayIan Seymour
TB
Michael Lorenzen
probable · homeMichael Lorenzen
COL
Strikeouts
Ian Seymour
Ian Seymour
TBvsCOLPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER4.5
Projection3.88
Edge+11.8%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 2.5 K across 36 starts
+109 · draftkings
Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen
COLvsTBPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
UNDER3.5
Projection3.03
Edge−0.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 2.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 3.5 K across 23 starts
-158 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsCOLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.88
Edge+16.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 111 games
-154 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
TBvsCOLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.48
Edge+15.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 78 games
+179 · draftkings
Cedric Mullins
Cedric Mullins
TBvsCOLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.75
Edge+13.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 93 games
-212 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsCOLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.68
Edge+11.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 40 games
-257 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsCOLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.97
Edge+10.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 108 games
-159 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor Walls
TBvsCOLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.58
Edge+6.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.66 across 83 games
+153 · draftkings
Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy
COLvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.98
Edge+5.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 93 games
-204 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsCOLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection1.16
Edge+4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 101 games
-149 · draftkings
Tyler Freeman
Tyler Freeman
COLvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge+3.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 73 games
+160 · draftkings
Hunter Feduccia
Hunter Feduccia
TBvsCOLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.63
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.57 across 58 games
+142 · draftkings
Hunter Goodman
Hunter Goodman
COLvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.99
Edge−3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 102 games
-252 · draftkings
Kyle Karros
Kyle Karros
COLvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge−1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 101 games
-267 · draftkings
Cole Carrigg
Cole Carrigg
COLvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.16
Edge+0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 42 games
+182 · draftkings
Willi Castro
Willi Castro
COLvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge−0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 94 games
-224 · draftkings
TJ Rumfield
TJ Rumfield
COLvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 109 games
-266 · draftkings
Ezequiel Tovar
Ezequiel Tovar
COLvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.53
Edge+0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.66 across 101 games
+107 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
TB @ COLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Brenton Doyle
TB @ COLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Chase Field21 leansFinal · graded

SD@AZ

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks

first pitch
9:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Michael King
probable · awayMichael King
SD
Brandon Pfaadt
probable · homeBrandon Pfaadt
AZ
Strikeouts
Michael King
Michael King
SDvsAZPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection5.35
Edge+15.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.0 K across 22 starts
-112 · draftkings
Brandon Pfaadt
Brandon PfaadtModel anomaly
AZvsSDPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
UNDER4.5
Projection2.63
Edge+24.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 2.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 2.6 K across 19 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-150 · fanduel
Brandon Pfaadt
Brandon PfaadtModel anomaly
AZvsSDPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
UNDER3.5
Projection2.63
Edge+23.5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 2.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 2.6 K across 19 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+125 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Ty France
Ty France
SDvsAZBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.29
Edge+7.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 81 games
-267 · draftkings
Luis Campusano
Luis Campusano
SDvsAZBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge+7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 37 games
-163 · draftkings
Gavin Sheets
Gavin Sheets
SDvsAZBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.58
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 104 games
+146 · draftkings
Gabriel Moreno
Gabriel Moreno
AZvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+4.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 85 games
-231 · draftkings
Adrian Del Castillo
Adrian Del Castillo
AZvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+3.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 56 games
-125 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDvsAZBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection1.05
Edge+3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.11 across 110 games
-179 · draftkings
Ryan Waldschmidt
Ryan WaldschmidtModel anomaly
AZvsSDBatterHits
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.19
Edge+22.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 45 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-132 · draftkings
Tim Tawa
Tim Tawa
AZvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.6
Edge−3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.59 across 49 games
-138 · draftkings
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
AZvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge−3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 108 games
-218 · draftkings
Luis Rengifo
Luis Rengifo
SDvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.89
Edge−2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 71 games
-237 · draftkings
Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth
SDvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge−2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 59 games
-242 · draftkings
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SDvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.99
Edge+1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 109 games
-237 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SDvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.11
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 108 games
+196 · draftkings
Geraldo Perdomo
Geraldo Perdomo
AZvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 108 games
-204 · draftkings
Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte
AZvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 107 games
-223 · draftkings
Nolan Arenado
Nolan Arenado
AZvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.77
Edge−0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 106 games
-169 · draftkings
Max Kepler
Max Kepler
AZvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge−0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 26 games
-150 · draftkings
Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
SDvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.73
Edge+0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 106 games
+155 · draftkings
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