EducationalNot betting advice · research use only.
GameTime Picks
Settled projections · Thursday, May 21

49.4%

115–118 on 233 decisive

Combined audit across the sports that had settled rows on 2026-05-21. Pushes excluded. Pending games never count as losses.

At a glance
Hit
115
model agreed and the line cleared
Miss
118
model agreed but the line did not clear
Push
0
final stat tied the line — excluded from hit rate
Pending
0
no games still pending on this date
NBA
49.3%
3536 on 71
MLB
49.4%
8082 on 162
Biggest hits
  • NBAJarrett AllenOver 11.5 PTS+34.8pp edgeactual 13
  • MLBDaylen LileOver 1.5 Total Bases+26.9pp edgeactual 3
  • NBAJames HardenOver 17.5 PTS+21.3pp edgeactual 18
  • NBAJalen BrunsonOver 6.5 AST+21.3pp edgeactual 14
  • NBAJarrett AllenOver 7.5 REB+21.2pp edgeactual 10
Biggest misses
  • MLBJuan SotoOver 1.5 Total Bases+23.7pp edgeactual 0
  • MLBJoey CantilloUnder 5.5 Strikeouts+22.7pp edgeactual 6
  • MLBDustin MayUnder 4.5 Strikeouts+12.6pp edgeactual 7
  • MLBIldemaro VargasOver 1.5 Total Bases+11.8pp edgeactual 0
  • MLBLuis SeverinoUnder 5.5 Strikeouts+11.8pp edgeactual 10
NBA · per-player results · 15 players
Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell
CLECLE @ NY
12
on 3
PTSLine26.5Proj.25.6Actual26.0Hit
REBLine4.5Proj.4.8Actual4.0Miss
ASTLine3.5Proj.4.7Actual1.0Miss
Evan Mobley
Evan Mobley
CLECLE @ NY
12
on 3
PTSLine15.5Proj.17.5Actual14.0Miss
REBLine8.5Proj.9.6Actual6.0Miss
ASTLine3.5Proj.3.4Actual3.0Hit
Jalen Brunson
Jalen Brunson
30
on 3
PTSLine27.5Proj.24.4Actual19.0Hit
REBLine3.5Proj.2.3Actual3.0Hit
ASTLine6.5Proj.7.9Actual14.0Hit
James Harden
James Harden
CLECLE @ NY
12
on 3
PTSLine17.5Proj.21.1Actual18.0Hit
REBLine4.5Proj.3.4Actual6.0Miss
ASTLine6.5Proj.6.7Actual2.0Miss
Jarrett Allen
Jarrett Allen
CLECLE @ NY
30
on 3
PTSLine11.5Proj.17.9Actual13.0Hit
REBLine7.5Proj.9.1Actual10.0Hit
ASTLine1.5Proj.1.1Actual0.0Hit
Josh Hart
Josh Hart
12
on 3
PTSLine12.5Proj.11.6Actual26.0Miss
REBLine7.5Proj.6.2Actual4.0Hit
ASTLine4.5Proj.3.6Actual7.0Miss
Karl-Anthony Towns
Karl-Anthony Towns
30
on 3
PTSLine17.5Proj.20.3Actual18.0Hit
REBLine10.5Proj.11.7Actual13.0Hit
ASTLine4.5Proj.4.1Actual1.0Hit
Mikal Bridges
Mikal Bridges
21
on 3
PTSLine13.5Proj.11.1Actual19.0Miss
REBLine3.5Proj.1.7Actual3.0Hit
ASTLine2.5Proj.2.8Actual3.0Hit
OG Anunoby
OG Anunoby
12
on 3
PTSLine14.5Proj.17.2Actual14.0Miss
REBLine5.5Proj.5.7Actual4.0Miss
ASTLine1.5Proj.2.1Actual3.0Hit
Dean Wade
Dean Wade
CLECLE @ NY
20
on 2
PTSLine4.5Proj.4.3Actual3.0Hit
REBLine4.5Proj.4.0Actual3.0Hit
ASTNo line on this market
Max Strus
Max Strus
CLECLE @ NY
02
on 2
PTSLine8.5Proj.9.5Actual5.0Miss
REBLine4.5Proj.5.1Actual4.0Miss
ASTNo line on this market
Mitchell Robinson
Mitchell Robinson
02
on 2
PTSLine4.5Proj.8.3Actual4.0Miss
REBLine7.5Proj.8.5Actual4.0Miss
ASTNo line on this market
Landry Shamet
Landry Shamet
01
on 1
PTSLine5.5Proj.6.5Actual0.0Miss
REBNo line on this market
ASTNo line on this market
Miles McBride
Miles McBride
01
on 1
PTSLine5.5Proj.9.4Actual5.0Miss
REBNo line on this market
ASTNo line on this market
Sam Merrill
Sam Merrill
CLECLE @ NY
01
on 1
PTSLine7.5Proj.11.9Actual4.0Miss
REBNo line on this market
ASTNo line on this market

One card per player. The per-game breakdown below carries every bookmaker row (DraftKings + FanDuel) for full audit detail; this view de-duplicates by player+market to make scanning easier.

NBA settled games · projection vs actual
CLE @ NYEastern Conference Finals · Game 2
353671 dec49.3%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Donovan MitchellASTOver 3.54.691+11.9%HighLoss-152 · fanduel
James HardenASTOver 6.56.662+9.6%HighLoss+122 · fanduel
Mikal BridgesASTOver 2.52.833+6.6%HighWin-108 · fanduel
Jalen BrunsonASTOver 6.57.9114+21.3%HighWin+110 · fanduel
Josh HartASTUnder 4.53.597+5.1%HighLoss-172 · fanduel
Evan MobleyASTUnder 3.53.373+2.1%LowWin-138 · fanduel
OG AnunobyASTOver 1.52.083+12.3%HighWin+100 · fanduel
Karl-Anthony TownsASTUnder 4.54.101+11.1%HighWin+110 · fanduel
Donovan MitchellPTSUnder 26.525.6326+6.4%HighWin+100 · fanduel
James HardenPTSOver 17.521.0618+18.6%HighWin-136 · fanduel
Mikal BridgesPTSUnder 13.511.0519+15.8%HighLoss-114 · fanduel
Mitchell RobinsonPTSOver 4.58.314+22.7%HighLoss-120 · fanduel
Jarrett AllenPTSOver 11.517.8913+34.3%HighWin-122 · fanduel
OG AnunobyPTSOver 14.517.1614+11.7%HighLoss-118 · fanduel
Jalen BrunsonPTSUnder 27.524.4019+16.7%HighWin-122 · fanduel
Josh HartPTSUnder 11.511.6326+1.1%LowLoss-106 · fanduel
Dean WadePTSUnder 4.54.353+0.0%LowWin-120 · fanduel
Sam MerrillPTSOver 7.511.904+24.0%HighLoss-130 · fanduel
Miles McBridePTSOver 5.59.385+23.5%HighLoss-118 · fanduel
Max StrusPTSOver 8.59.545+6.6%HighLoss-106 · fanduel
Evan MobleyPTSOver 15.517.5314+12.6%HighLoss-102 · fanduel
Karl-Anthony TownsPTSOver 17.520.3218+17.5%HighWin-118 · fanduel
Landry ShametPTSOver 5.56.480+9.7%HighLoss+100 · fanduel
James HardenREBUnder 4.53.396+11.6%HighLoss-130 · fanduel
Mikal BridgesREBUnder 3.51.713+13.4%HighWin-172 · fanduel
Mitchell RobinsonREBOver 6.58.464+18.0%HighLoss-152 · fanduel
Jarrett AllenREBOver 7.59.0510+21.2%HighWin-108 · fanduel
Jalen BrunsonREBUnder 3.52.283+4.4%MediumWin-192 · fanduel
Josh HartREBUnder 7.56.164+10.9%HighWin-152 · fanduel
Dean WadeREBUnder 3.53.973+0.1%LowWin+114 · fanduel
Max StrusREBOver 4.55.064+11.2%HighLoss+102 · fanduel
Evan MobleyREBOver 8.59.576+11.8%HighLoss-102 · fanduel
OG AnunobyREBOver 5.55.694+11.3%HighLoss+128 · fanduel
Karl-Anthony TownsREBOver 10.511.6613+9.3%HighWin-125 · fanduel
Donovan MitchellREBOver 4.54.794+7.7%HighLoss+102 · fanduel
Jalen BrunsonASTOver 6.57.9114+18.8%HighWin-101 · draftkings
James HardenASTOver 5.56.662+8.7%HighLoss-134 · draftkings
Karl-Anthony TownsASTUnder 4.54.101+12.8%HighWin+119 · draftkings
Josh HartASTUnder 4.53.597+8.3%HighLoss-148 · draftkings
Donovan MitchellASTOver 3.54.691+13.3%HighLoss-142 · draftkings
Evan MobleyASTUnder 3.53.373+4.7%MediumWin-154 · draftkings
Mikal BridgesASTOver 2.52.833+8.1%HighWin-101 · draftkings
OG AnunobyASTOver 1.52.083+13.2%HighWin+104 · draftkings
Jarrett AllenASTUnder 1.51.080+1.8%LowWin-142 · draftkings
Donovan MitchellPTSUnder 27.525.6326+5.7%HighWin-118 · draftkings
Jalen BrunsonPTSUnder 27.524.4019+16.6%HighWin-120 · draftkings
James HardenPTSOver 17.521.0618+21.3%HighWin-118 · draftkings
Karl-Anthony TownsPTSOver 17.520.3218+21.0%HighWin+100 · draftkings
Evan MobleyPTSOver 15.517.5314+12.6%HighLoss+100 · draftkings
OG AnunobyPTSOver 14.517.1614+9.9%HighLoss-125 · draftkings
Mikal BridgesPTSUnder 13.511.0519+15.2%HighLoss-116 · draftkings
Josh HartPTSUnder 12.511.6326+2.2%LowLoss-127 · draftkings
Jarrett AllenPTSOver 11.517.8913+34.8%HighWin-117 · draftkings
Max StrusPTSOver 8.59.545+4.5%MediumLoss-113 · draftkings
Sam MerrillPTSOver 7.511.904+23.3%HighLoss-131 · draftkings
Miles McBridePTSOver 5.59.385+19.6%HighLoss-137 · draftkings
Landry ShametPTSOver 5.56.480+9.1%HighLoss-101 · draftkings
Dean WadePTSUnder 4.54.353+3.4%MediumWin-102 · draftkings
Mitchell RobinsonPTSOver 4.58.314+25.2%HighLoss-106 · draftkings
Karl-Anthony TownsREBOver 11.511.6613+6.1%HighWin+106 · draftkings
Evan MobleyREBOver 8.59.576+11.3%HighLoss-104 · draftkings
Jarrett AllenREBOver 7.59.0510+17.6%HighWin-126 · draftkings
Josh HartREBUnder 7.56.164+12.9%HighWin-139 · draftkings
Mitchell RobinsonREBOver 7.58.464+18.6%HighLoss+113 · draftkings
OG AnunobyREBOver 5.55.694+7.2%HighLoss+108 · draftkings
James HardenREBUnder 4.53.396+13.0%HighLoss-122 · draftkings
Donovan MitchellREBOver 4.54.794+5.7%HighLoss-106 · draftkings
Max StrusREBOver 4.55.064+12.8%HighLoss+110 · draftkings
Dean WadeREBUnder 4.53.973+0.1%LowWin-154 · draftkings
Jalen BrunsonREBUnder 3.52.283+8.0%HighWin-161 · draftkings
Mikal BridgesREBUnder 3.51.713+14.3%HighWin-164 · draftkings
MLB settled games · projection vs actual
CLE @ DET
8917 dec47.1%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Joey CantilloStrikeoutsUnder 5.53.676+22.7%LowLoss
Casey MizeStrikeoutsOver 4.55.074+8.0%HighLoss
Dillon DinglerHitsOver 0.50.872-2.9%LowWin
Kevin McGonigleHitsOver 0.50.981+4.6%MediumWin
Chase DeLauterHitsOver 0.50.900+0.1%LowLoss
Matt VierlingHitsUnder 0.50.650+1.2%LowWin
Riley GreeneHitsOver 0.51.340+18.8%HighLoss
Daniel SchneemannHitsUnder 0.50.651-1.3%LowLoss
Steven KwanHitsUnder 0.50.580+1.4%LowWin
Travis BazzanaHitsOver 0.51.270+20.5%LowLoss
Brayan RocchioHitsOver 0.51.003+10.2%HighWin
Rhys HoskinsHitsUnder 0.50.410+6.4%HighWin
Spencer TorkelsonHitsUnder 0.50.521+0.3%LowLoss
Patrick BaileyHitsUnder 0.50.351-0.1%LowLoss
Jahmai JonesHitsUnder 0.50.270+1.8%LowWin
Zack ShortHitsUnder 0.50.001+9.2%HighLoss
Dillon DinglerTotal BasesOver 1.51.656+9.8%HighWin
PIT @ STL
12921 dec57.1%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Braxton AshcraftStrikeoutsOver 5.55.929+12.2%HighWin
Dustin MayStrikeoutsUnder 4.54.137+12.6%HighLoss
Konnor GriffinHitsOver 0.51.221+3.7%MediumWin
Alec BurlesonHitsOver 0.51.152+4.0%MediumWin
Jordan WalkerHitsOver 0.51.111+4.7%MediumWin
Jake MangumHitsUnder 0.50.661+3.5%MediumLoss
Jared TrioloHitsOver 0.50.861-0.6%LowWin
Spencer HorwitzHitsOver 0.51.021+6.3%HighWin
Oneil CruzHitsOver 0.51.191+9.9%HighWin
Bryan ReynoldsHitsOver 0.50.950+3.0%MediumLoss
Brandon LoweHitsOver 0.50.942+2.9%MediumWin
JJ WetherholtHitsOver 0.51.020+8.6%HighLoss
Masyn WinnHitsOver 0.50.810+0.6%LowLoss
Marcell OzunaHitsUnder 0.50.642-0.2%LowLoss
Henry DavisHitsUnder 0.50.371+7.8%HighLoss
Nolan GormanHitsOver 0.50.840+8.3%HighLoss
Victor Scott IIHitsUnder 0.50.460-3.3%LowWin
Alec BurlesonTotal BasesOver 1.51.693+8.8%HighWin
Konnor GriffinTotal BasesOver 1.51.712+11.3%HighWin
Jordan WalkerTotal BasesOver 1.52.191+19.2%HighLoss
Oneil CruzTotal BasesOver 1.51.912+15.7%HighWin
NYM @ WSH
101525 dec40.0%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Cade CavalliStrikeoutsUnder 4.54.919-2.3%LowLoss
David PetersonStrikeoutsOver 4.55.193+10.4%HighLoss
Bo BichetteHitsUnder 1.50.911+10.3%HighWin
Carson BengeHitsOver 1.51.421+12.2%HighLoss
Daylen LileHitsOver 0.51.232+10.1%HighWin
Curtis MeadHitsUnder 0.50.720+2.4%LowWin
Juan SotoHitsOver 0.51.260+12.6%HighLoss
Mark VientosHitsOver 0.50.980+2.7%MediumLoss
James WoodHitsOver 0.51.091+5.2%HighWin
Marcus SemienHitsUnder 0.50.811-3.4%LowLoss
CJ AbramsHitsOver 0.51.200+11.1%HighLoss
Keibert RuizHitsOver 0.51.052+9.2%HighWin
Brett BatyHitsOver 0.50.922+5.6%HighWin
Jacob YoungHitsOver 0.50.760-1.1%LowLoss
Luis TorrensHitsUnder 0.50.561+2.1%LowLoss
A.J. EwingHitsOver 0.50.890+7.0%HighLoss
Andrés ChaparroHitsUnder 0.50.400+4.9%MediumWin
MJ MelendezHitsUnder 0.50.300+8.1%HighWin
Bo BichetteTotal BasesOver 1.51.621+1.1%LowLoss
Carson BengeTotal BasesOver 1.51.691+8.9%HighLoss
Juan SotoTotal BasesOver 1.52.490+23.7%LowLoss
Mark VientosTotal BasesOver 1.51.590+8.9%HighLoss
James WoodTotal BasesOver 1.52.062+20.1%LowWin
Curtis MeadTotal BasesOver 1.51.150+2.7%MediumLoss
Daylen LileTotal BasesOver 1.52.333+26.9%LowWin
ATL @ MIA
101222 dec45.5%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Sandy AlcantaraStrikeoutsUnder 4.54.593-2.2%LowWin
Spencer StriderStrikeoutsOver 5.56.009+3.2%MediumWin
Michael Harris IIHitsUnder 1.50.962+1.4%LowLoss
Otto LopezHitsOver 0.51.340+10.3%HighLoss
Xavier EdwardsHitsOver 0.51.191+8.7%HighWin
Dominic SmithHitsUnder 0.50.872-2.0%LowLoss
Austin RileyHitsUnder 0.50.800-1.0%LowWin
Matt OlsonHitsOver 0.50.940+2.4%LowLoss
Ozzie AlbiesHitsUnder 0.50.731+0.4%LowLoss
Liam HicksHitsOver 0.50.870-0.9%LowLoss
Javier SanojaHitsUnder 0.50.630+0.7%LowWin
Kyle StowersHitsOver 0.50.792+2.5%MediumWin
Jakob MarseeHitsOver 0.50.990+13.0%HighLoss
Mike YastrzemskiHitsOver 0.50.623+0.1%LowWin
Owen CaissieHitsOver 0.50.541-1.6%LowWin
Joe MackHitsOver 0.50.620+5.4%HighLoss
Michael Harris IITotal BasesOver 1.51.608-1.3%LowWin
Matt OlsonTotal BasesOver 1.51.720+9.7%HighLoss
Austin RileyTotal BasesOver 1.51.620+7.7%HighLoss
Otto LopezTotal BasesOver 1.51.740+11.7%HighLoss
Dominic SmithTotal BasesOver 1.51.383+3.5%MediumWin
Xavier EdwardsTotal BasesOver 1.51.961+20.9%LowLoss
TOR @ NYY
121022 dec54.5%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.HitsUnder 0.50.761+4.0%MediumLoss
Cody BellingerHitsUnder 0.50.840-3.2%LowWin
Ben RiceHitsOver 0.50.961+2.1%LowWin
Aaron JudgeHitsOver 0.50.860-0.9%LowLoss
Ernie ClementHitsOver 0.50.903-0.9%LowWin
George SpringerHitsOver 0.50.831-1.1%LowWin
Kazuma OkamotoHitsUnder 0.50.660+0.7%LowWin
Paul GoldschmidtHitsOver 0.51.020+8.0%HighLoss
Lenyn SosaHitsUnder 0.50.460+9.1%HighWin
Jazz Chisholm Jr.HitsOver 0.51.140+14.6%HighLoss
Daulton VarshoHitsOver 0.51.201+16.3%HighWin
Anthony VolpeHitsOver 0.50.710+0.8%LowLoss
Ryan McMahonHitsUnder 0.50.421+3.3%MediumLoss
Brandon ValenzuelaHitsOver 0.50.731+4.1%MediumWin
Myles StrawHitsUnder 0.50.370+4.2%MediumWin
Spencer JonesHitsUnder 0.50.331+3.2%MediumLoss
Davis SchneiderHitsUnder 0.50.300-1.3%LowWin
Aaron JudgeTotal BasesOver 1.51.670+6.9%HighLoss
Ben RiceTotal BasesOver 1.52.261+18.8%HighLoss
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Total BasesUnder 1.51.071-1.2%LowWin
Cody BellingerTotal BasesOver 1.51.460+5.0%HighLoss
George SpringerTotal BasesOver 1.51.274+1.4%LowWin
ATH @ LAA
121224 dec50.0%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Luis SeverinoStrikeoutsUnder 5.55.0010+11.8%HighLoss
Shea LangeliersHitsOver 0.51.161+2.4%LowWin
Vaughn GrissomHitsUnder 0.50.720+3.6%MediumWin
Nolan SchanuelHitsOver 0.50.941-0.4%LowWin
Zach NetoHitsOver 0.50.830-2.0%LowLoss
Mike TroutHitsUnder 0.50.661+2.5%MediumLoss
Jo AdellHitsOver 0.50.891-0.1%LowWin
Carlos CortesHitsOver 0.50.951+1.8%LowWin
Tyler SoderstromHitsUnder 0.50.621+4.2%MediumLoss
Brent RookerHitsOver 0.50.782-2.3%LowWin
Jeff McNeilHitsOver 0.50.800-0.1%LowLoss
Nick KurtzHitsOver 0.51.051+12.4%HighWin
Darell HernaizHitsOver 0.50.861+4.5%MediumWin
Jorge SolerHitsOver 0.50.690-2.4%LowLoss
Zack GelofHitsOver 0.50.880+6.8%HighLoss
Henry BolteHitsOver 0.51.000+12.8%HighLoss
Josh LoweHitsOver 0.50.681+0.2%LowWin
Shea LangeliersTotal BasesOver 1.51.882+7.3%HighWin
Mike TroutTotal BasesOver 1.51.351+3.0%MediumLoss
Jo AdellTotal BasesOver 1.51.821+14.3%HighLoss
Brent RookerTotal BasesOver 1.51.482+8.1%HighWin
Zach NetoTotal BasesOver 1.51.590+10.8%HighLoss
Nolan SchanuelTotal BasesOver 1.51.264+2.4%LowWin
Vaughn GrissomTotal BasesOver 1.51.190+1.1%LowLoss
COL @ AZ
161531 dec51.6%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Eduardo RodriguezStrikeoutsUnder 5.55.074+2.4%LowWin
Ketel MarteHitsUnder 1.51.122+1.0%LowLoss
Corbin CarrollHitsUnder 1.51.101-3.3%LowWin
Ildemaro VargasHitsOver 1.51.270+6.2%HighLoss
Nolan ArenadoHitsUnder 1.50.970-0.2%LowWin
Gabriel MorenoHitsUnder 1.50.881+0.1%LowWin
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.HitsUnder 1.50.830+5.0%MediumWin
Tyler FreemanHitsUnder 0.50.851+0.4%LowLoss
Geraldo PerdomoHitsUnder 0.50.790+2.8%MediumWin
Willi CastroHitsUnder 0.50.651+7.5%HighLoss
TJ RumfieldHitsOver 0.51.001-0.3%LowWin
Mickey MoniakHitsOver 0.50.850-2.8%LowLoss
Hunter GoodmanHitsOver 0.50.810-3.2%LowLoss
Ezequiel TovarHitsOver 0.50.811-0.4%LowWin
Kyle KarrosHitsUnder 0.50.620+2.0%LowWin
Ryan WaldschmidtHitsOver 0.51.050+8.6%HighLoss
Troy JohnstonHitsOver 0.50.971+6.5%HighWin
Adrian Del CastilloHitsUnder 0.50.520+5.2%HighWin
Jake McCarthyHitsOver 0.50.921+7.5%HighWin
Ketel MarteTotal BasesOver 1.52.072+3.0%MediumWin
Corbin CarrollTotal BasesOver 1.52.241+8.6%HighLoss
Nolan ArenadoTotal BasesOver 1.51.750+6.5%HighLoss
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Total BasesUnder 1.51.240-1.8%LowWin
Gabriel MorenoTotal BasesOver 1.51.321-1.2%LowLoss
Ildemaro VargasTotal BasesOver 1.51.870+11.8%HighLoss
Geraldo PerdomoTotal BasesOver 1.51.160-3.4%LowLoss
Tyler FreemanTotal BasesUnder 1.51.191-2.8%LowWin
Hunter GoodmanTotal BasesOver 1.51.460+6.0%HighLoss
Willi CastroTotal BasesUnder 1.50.971+1.6%LowWin
Mickey MoniakTotal BasesOver 1.51.780+11.6%HighLoss
TJ RumfieldTotal BasesOver 1.51.541+8.9%HighLoss
2026-05-20all settled dates2026-05-22
hit rate excludes pushes · settled decisive rows only · educational use only · not betting advice