Ajay Mitchell
OKCOKC @ SA
2–1
on 3
PTSLine10.5Proj.10.2Actual10.0Hit
REBLine3.5Proj.2.6Actual0.0Hit
ASTLine3.5Proj.3.6Actual2.0Miss
Settled projections · Wednesday, May 20
62.5%
50–30 on 80 decisiveCombined audit across the sports that had settled rows on 2026-05-20. Pushes excluded. Pending games never count as losses.
At a glance
Hit
50
model agreed and the line cleared
Miss
30
model agreed but the line did not clear
Push
0
final stat tied the line — excluded from hit rate
Pending
0
no games still pending on this date
Biggest hits
- NBAKeldon JohnsonOver 8.5 PTS+42.2pp edgeactual 10
- NBAIsaiah HartensteinOver 4.5 REB+40.1pp edgeactual 13
- NBAStephon CastleOver 6.5 AST+38.3pp edgeactual 8
Biggest misses
- NBAJalen WilliamsUnder 17.5 PTSactual 4
- NBAJalen WilliamsUnder 18.5 PTSactual 4
- NBAAlex CarusoUnder 10.5 PTSactual 17
- NBAAlex CarusoUnder 9.5 PTSactual 17
- NBAVictor WembanyamaOver 25.5 PTSactual 21
NBA · per-player results · 15 players
Alex Caruso
OKCOKC @ SA
2–1
on 3
PTSLine10.5Proj.5.5Actual17.0Miss
REBLine3.5Proj.2.6Actual3.0Hit
ASTLine1.5Proj.1.8Actual5.0Hit
Cason Wallace
OKCOKC @ SA
3–0
on 3
PTSLine6.5Proj.9.3Actual12.0Hit
REBLine2.5Proj.2.9Actual4.0Hit
ASTLine1.5Proj.1.6Actual4.0Hit
Chet Holmgren
OKCOKC @ SA
1–2
on 3
PTSLine13.5Proj.16.3Actual13.0Miss
REBLine8.5Proj.8.2Actual4.0Hit
ASTLine1.5Proj.1.3Actual2.0Miss
De'Aaron Fox
—
0–0
on 3
PTSLine12.5Proj.17.4Actual——
REBLine2.5Proj.3.4Actual——
ASTLine4.5Proj.5.9Actual——
Devin Vassell
—
1–2
on 3
PTSLine12.5Proj.12.2Actual22.0Miss
REBLine4.5Proj.4.8Actual4.0Miss
ASTLine2.5Proj.2.4Actual1.0Hit
Dylan Harper
—
1–2
on 3
PTSLine13.5Proj.13.8Actual12.0Miss
REBLine4.5Proj.3.9Actual2.0Hit
ASTLine3.5Proj.3.7Actual3.0Miss
Isaiah Hartenstein
OKCOKC @ SA
3–0
on 3
PTSLine4.5Proj.6.1Actual10.0Hit
REBLine4.5Proj.9.5Actual13.0Hit
ASTLine1.5Proj.2.7Actual3.0Hit
Jalen Williams
OKCOKC @ SA
2–1
on 3
PTSLine18.5Proj.16.7Actual4.0Hit
REBLine4.5Proj.4.1Actual1.0Hit
ASTLine4.5Proj.5.6Actual0.0Miss
Julian Champagnie
—
1–2
on 3
PTSLine9.5Proj.9.9Actual8.0Miss
REBLine5.5Proj.6.1Actual5.0Miss
ASTLine1.5Proj.1.9Actual2.0Hit
Keldon Johnson
—
3–0
on 3
PTSLine8.5Proj.16.1Actual10.0Hit
REBLine3.5Proj.5.6Actual5.0Hit
ASTLine0.5Proj.1.4Actual1.0Hit
Luguentz Dort
OKCOKC @ SA
2–1
on 3
PTSLine5.5Proj.8.0Actual8.0Hit
REBLine2.5Proj.2.2Actual3.0Miss
ASTLine0.5Proj.1.2Actual3.0Hit
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKCOKC @ SA
2–1
on 3
PTSLine28.5Proj.29.0Actual30.0Hit
REBLine4.5Proj.3.7Actual4.0Hit
ASTLine6.5Proj.6.3Actual9.0Miss
Stephon Castle
—
2–1
on 3
PTSLine16.5Proj.16.5Actual25.0Hit
REBLine5.5Proj.7.6Actual5.0Miss
ASTLine6.5Proj.9.7Actual8.0Hit
Victor Wembanyama
—
1–2
on 3
PTSLine25.5Proj.31.1Actual21.0Miss
REBLine13.5Proj.12.8Actual17.0Miss
ASTLine3.5Proj.3.8Actual6.0Hit
One card per player. The per-game breakdown below carries every bookmaker row (DraftKings + FanDuel) for full audit detail; this view de-duplicates by player+market to make scanning easier.
NBA settled games · projection vs actual
OKC @ SAWestern Conference Finals · Game 250–3080 dec62.5%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | AST | Under 6.5 | 6.27 | 9 | +10.3% | High | Loss+116 · fanduel |
| Julian Champagnie | AST | Over 1.5 | 1.91 | 2 | +17.5% | High | Win+140 · fanduel |
| Chet Holmgren | AST | Under 1.5 | 1.34 | 2 | +4.2% | Medium | Loss-154 · fanduel |
| Stephon Castle | AST | Over 6.5 | 9.72 | 8 | +37.3% | High | Win-130 · fanduel |
| Devin Vassell | AST | Under 2.5 | 2.37 | 1 | +4.8% | Medium | Win-158 · fanduel |
| Jalen Williams | AST | Over 4.5 | 5.56 | 0 | +17.0% | High | Loss-112 · fanduel |
| Cason Wallace | AST | Over 1.5 | 1.59 | 4 | +1.4% | Low | Win-130 · fanduel |
| Luguentz Dort | AST | Over 0.5 | 1.19 | 3 | +1.5% | Low | Win-174 · fanduel |
| De'Aaron Fox | AST | Over 4.5 | 5.87 | — | +29.8% | High | —+128 · fanduel |
| Alex Caruso | AST | Over 2.5 | 1.79 | 5 | +2.6% | Medium | Win+158 · fanduel |
| Dylan Harper | AST | Over 3.5 | 3.70 | 3 | +0.6% | Low | Loss-136 · fanduel |
| Ajay Mitchell | AST | Over 3.5 | 3.57 | 2 | +9.8% | High | Loss+126 · fanduel |
| Victor Wembanyama | AST | Over 3.5 | 3.79 | 6 | +15.9% | High | Win+142 · fanduel |
| Stephon Castle | PTS | Over 16.5 | 16.54 | 25 | +0.9% | Low | Win-112 · fanduel |
| Devin Vassell | PTS | Under 12.5 | 12.18 | 22 | +0.3% | Low | Loss-128 · fanduel |
| Jalen Williams | PTS | Under 17.5 | 16.67 | 4 | +5.7% | High | Win-112 · fanduel |
| De'Aaron Fox | PTS | Over 12.5 | 17.45 | — | +31.5% | High | —-106 · fanduel |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | PTS | Over 28.5 | 29.01 | 30 | +5.2% | High | Win-102 · fanduel |
| Luguentz Dort | PTS | Over 5.5 | 7.98 | 8 | +14.1% | High | Win-125 · fanduel |
| Alex Caruso | PTS | Under 10.5 | 5.46 | 17 | +27.6% | High | Loss-128 · fanduel |
| Julian Champagnie | PTS | Over 9.5 | 9.91 | 8 | +6.0% | High | Loss+100 · fanduel |
| Cason Wallace | PTS | Over 6.5 | 9.30 | 12 | +18.0% | High | Win-114 · fanduel |
| Chet Holmgren | PTS | Over 13.5 | 16.29 | 13 | +18.1% | High | Loss-112 · fanduel |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | PTS | Over 4.5 | 6.13 | 10 | +14.5% | High | Win+102 · fanduel |
| Dylan Harper | PTS | Over 13.5 | 13.82 | 12 | +2.1% | Low | Loss-114 · fanduel |
| Victor Wembanyama | PTS | Over 25.5 | 31.14 | 21 | +26.1% | High | Loss-102 · fanduel |
| Ajay Mitchell | PTS | Under 10.5 | 10.21 | 10 | +0.5% | Low | Win-122 · fanduel |
| De'Aaron Fox | REB | Over 2.5 | 3.42 | — | +5.3% | High | —-154 · fanduel |
| Dylan Harper | REB | Under 4.5 | 3.86 | 2 | +10.4% | High | Win-106 · fanduel |
| Devin Vassell | REB | Over 4.5 | 4.76 | 4 | +9.8% | High | Loss+114 · fanduel |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | REB | Under 4.5 | 3.68 | 4 | +2.9% | Medium | Win-162 · fanduel |
| Victor Wembanyama | REB | Under 13.5 | 12.78 | 17 | +9.6% | High | Loss-104 · fanduel |
| Chet Holmgren | REB | Under 8.5 | 8.15 | 4 | +8.2% | High | Win+104 · fanduel |
| Cason Wallace | REB | Over 2.5 | 2.88 | 4 | +0.4% | Low | Win-140 · fanduel |
| Julian Champagnie | REB | Over 4.5 | 6.09 | 5 | +12.3% | High | Win-162 · fanduel |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | REB | Over 4.5 | 9.54 | 13 | +40.1% | High | Win+108 · fanduel |
| Alex Caruso | REB | Under 3.5 | 2.65 | 3 | +8.7% | High | Win-128 · fanduel |
| Stephon Castle | REB | Over 4.5 | 7.58 | 5 | +26.5% | High | Win-158 · fanduel |
| Jalen Williams | REB | Under 4.5 | 4.13 | 1 | +9.1% | High | Win+104 · fanduel |
| Ajay Mitchell | REB | Under 3.5 | 2.62 | 0 | +4.8% | Medium | Win-154 · fanduel |
| Luguentz Dort | REB | Under 2.5 | 2.17 | 3 | +4.4% | Medium | Loss-114 · fanduel |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | AST | Under 6.5 | 6.27 | 9 | +9.6% | High | Loss+113 · draftkings |
| Stephon Castle | AST | Over 6.5 | 9.72 | 8 | +38.3% | High | Win-124 · draftkings |
| Jalen Williams | AST | Over 4.5 | 5.56 | 0 | +15.6% | High | Loss-119 · draftkings |
| De'Aaron Fox | AST | Over 4.5 | 5.87 | — | +28.4% | High | —+121 · draftkings |
| Dylan Harper | AST | Over 3.5 | 3.70 | 3 | +1.1% | Low | Loss-126 · draftkings |
| Ajay Mitchell | AST | Over 3.5 | 3.57 | 2 | +8.8% | High | Loss+121 · draftkings |
| Victor Wembanyama | AST | Over 2.5 | 3.79 | 6 | +11.6% | High | Win-163 · draftkings |
| Devin Vassell | AST | Under 2.5 | 2.37 | 1 | +3.9% | Medium | Win-149 · draftkings |
| Alex Caruso | AST | Over 1.5 | 1.79 | 5 | +5.3% | High | Win-178 · draftkings |
| Cason Wallace | AST | Over 1.5 | 1.59 | 4 | +1.6% | Low | Win-130 · draftkings |
| Chet Holmgren | AST | Under 1.5 | 1.34 | 2 | +1.8% | Low | Loss-138 · draftkings |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | AST | Over 1.5 | 2.68 | 3 | +27.9% | High | Win+147 · draftkings |
| Julian Champagnie | AST | Over 1.5 | 1.91 | 2 | +18.8% | High | Win+148 · draftkings |
| Keldon Johnson | AST | Over 0.5 | 1.45 | 1 | +2.4% | Low | Win-199 · draftkings |
| Luguentz Dort | AST | Over 0.5 | 1.19 | 3 | +2.8% | Medium | Win-163 · draftkings |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | PTS | Over 28.5 | 29.01 | 30 | +1.4% | Low | Win-118 · draftkings |
| Victor Wembanyama | PTS | Over 24.5 | 31.14 | 21 | +24.7% | High | Loss-123 · draftkings |
| Jalen Williams | PTS | Under 18.5 | 16.67 | 4 | +9.2% | High | Win-123 · draftkings |
| Stephon Castle | PTS | Over 16.5 | 16.54 | 25 | +2.1% | Low | Win-125 · draftkings |
| Dylan Harper | PTS | Over 13.5 | 13.82 | 12 | +0.8% | Low | Loss-128 · draftkings |
| Chet Holmgren | PTS | Over 13.5 | 16.29 | 13 | +17.4% | High | Loss-113 · draftkings |
| Devin Vassell | PTS | Under 12.5 | 12.18 | 22 | +1.9% | Low | Loss-114 · draftkings |
| De'Aaron Fox | PTS | Over 12.5 | 17.45 | — | +30.4% | High | —-109 · draftkings |
| Ajay Mitchell | PTS | Under 10.5 | 10.21 | 10 | +0.0% | Low | Win-122 · draftkings |
| Alex Caruso | PTS | Under 9.5 | 5.46 | 17 | +27.4% | High | Loss-102 · draftkings |
| Julian Champagnie | PTS | Over 9.5 | 9.91 | 8 | +4.7% | Medium | Loss-104 · draftkings |
| Keldon Johnson | PTS | Over 8.5 | 16.14 | 10 | +42.2% | High | Win-102 · draftkings |
| Cason Wallace | PTS | Over 6.5 | 9.30 | 12 | +18.4% | High | Win-111 · draftkings |
| Luguentz Dort | PTS | Over 5.5 | 7.98 | 8 | +10.6% | High | Win-142 · draftkings |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | PTS | Over 4.5 | 6.13 | 10 | +14.4% | High | Win+104 · draftkings |
| Victor Wembanyama | REB | Under 13.5 | 12.78 | 17 | +11.0% | High | Loss+103 · draftkings |
| Chet Holmgren | REB | Under 8.5 | 8.15 | 4 | +7.4% | High | Win+100 · draftkings |
| Stephon Castle | REB | Over 5.5 | 7.58 | 5 | +31.3% | High | Loss+116 · draftkings |
| Julian Champagnie | REB | Over 5.5 | 6.09 | 5 | +15.2% | High | Loss+120 · draftkings |
| Jalen Williams | REB | Under 4.5 | 4.13 | 1 | +7.6% | High | Win-102 · draftkings |
| Dylan Harper | REB | Under 4.5 | 3.86 | 2 | +10.5% | High | Win-105 · draftkings |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | REB | Over 4.5 | 9.54 | 13 | +38.8% | High | Win+103 · draftkings |
| Devin Vassell | REB | Over 4.5 | 4.76 | 4 | +9.6% | High | Loss+113 · draftkings |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | REB | Under 4.5 | 3.68 | 4 | +3.9% | Medium | Win-154 · draftkings |
| Keldon Johnson | REB | Over 3.5 | 5.59 | 5 | +26.9% | High | Win-109 · draftkings |
| Alex Caruso | REB | Under 3.5 | 2.65 | 3 | +6.8% | High | Win-138 · draftkings |
| Ajay Mitchell | REB | Under 3.5 | 2.62 | 0 | +3.5% | Medium | Win-162 · draftkings |
| De'Aaron Fox | REB | Over 2.5 | 3.42 | — | +3.7% | Medium | —-165 · draftkings |
| Cason Wallace | REB | Over 2.5 | 2.88 | 4 | +1.2% | Low | Win-150 · draftkings |
| Luguentz Dort | REB | Under 2.5 | 2.17 | 3 | +3.5% | Medium | Loss-119 · draftkings |