EducationalNot betting advice · research use only.
GameTime Picks
Settled projections · Saturday, May 16

52.9%

144–128 on 272 decisive

Combined audit across the sports that had settled rows on 2026-05-16. Pushes excluded. Pending games never count as losses.

At a glance
Hit
144
model agreed and the line cleared
Miss
128
model agreed but the line did not clear
Push
0
final stat tied the line — excluded from hit rate
Pending
0
no games still pending on this date
MLB
52.9%
144128 on 272
Biggest hits
  • MLBDavis MartinOver 5.5 Strikeouts+41.5pp edgeactual 7
  • MLBDavis MartinOver 4.5 Strikeouts+31.7pp edgeactual 7
  • MLBJoey CantilloUnder 4.5 Strikeouts+25.4pp edgeactual 4
  • MLBKyle SchwarberOver 1.5 Total Bases+24.1pp edgeactual 2
  • MLBDrake BaldwinOver 1.5 Total Bases+21.2pp edgeactual 5
Biggest misses
  • MLBBryce ElderOver 5.5 Strikeouts+23.0pp edgeactual 3
  • MLBTyler O'NeillUnder 1.5 Total Bases+18.6pp edgeactual 4
  • MLBKyle LeahyOver 3.5 Strikeouts+18.5pp edgeactual 2
  • MLBPayton TolleOver 4.5 Strikeouts+10.8pp edgeactual 3
  • MLBJameson TaillonOver 5.5 Strikeouts-2.3pp edgeactual 2
MLB settled games · projection vs actual
TOR @ DET
5510 dec50.0%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Casey MizeStrikeoutsOver 4.55.744+28.1%LowLoss
George SpringerHitsUnder 0.50.670+7.9%HighWin
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.HitsUnder 0.50.720+6.7%HighWin
Ernie ClementHitsOver 0.51.130+4.3%MediumLoss
Kazuma OkamotoHitsOver 0.50.890-1.4%LowLoss
Daulton VarshoHitsOver 0.50.892+5.7%HighWin
George SpringerTotal BasesUnder 1.50.930+8.1%HighWin
Kazuma OkamotoTotal BasesOver 1.51.600+5.7%HighLoss
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Total BasesUnder 1.50.870+4.9%MediumWin
Ernie ClementTotal BasesOver 1.51.500+9.8%HighLoss
KC @ STL
101626 dec38.5%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Kyle LeahyStrikeoutsOver 3.54.922+18.5%HighLoss
Noah CameronStrikeoutsOver 4.54.814+12.4%HighLoss
Maikel GarciaHitsUnder 1.51.071-1.8%LowWin
Bobby Witt Jr.HitsOver 1.51.411+8.8%HighLoss
Salvador PerezHitsUnder 1.50.750+8.9%HighWin
Alec BurlesonHitsOver 0.51.101-0.3%LowWin
Vinnie PasquantinoHitsUnder 0.50.771+3.0%MediumLoss
Masyn WinnHitsUnder 0.50.890-2.9%LowWin
Jordan WalkerHitsOver 0.51.191+6.9%HighWin
Jac CaglianoneHitsUnder 0.50.632+5.0%HighLoss
Nathan ChurchHitsUnder 0.50.812-3.0%LowLoss
Isaac CollinsHitsUnder 0.50.661+2.7%MediumLoss
Carter JensenHitsOver 0.50.790-3.3%LowLoss
Michael MasseyHitsUnder 0.50.601+1.3%LowLoss
Kyle IsbelHitsOver 0.50.751-1.1%LowWin
Thomas SaggeseHitsUnder 0.50.291+11.4%HighLoss
Bobby Witt Jr.Total BasesOver 1.52.551+20.8%HighLoss
Salvador PerezTotal BasesUnder 1.51.160+0.6%LowWin
Maikel GarciaTotal BasesOver 1.51.492+1.2%LowWin
Vinnie PasquantinoTotal BasesUnder 1.51.191-1.8%LowWin
Alec BurlesonTotal BasesOver 1.51.681+6.9%HighLoss
Masyn WinnTotal BasesOver 1.51.280-1.7%LowLoss
Jordan WalkerTotal BasesOver 1.52.411+22.1%HighLoss
Carter JensenTotal BasesOver 1.51.230+1.7%LowLoss
Jac CaglianoneTotal BasesUnder 1.50.985-1.4%LowLoss
Nathan ChurchTotal BasesOver 1.51.173+2.7%MediumWin
AZ @ COL
9918 dec50.0%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Eduardo RodriguezStrikeoutsUnder 5.54.616+10.8%HighLoss
Tomoyuki SuganoStrikeoutsUnder 2.52.271+6.9%HighWin
Ketel MarteHitsUnder 1.50.762+21.9%HighLoss
Corbin CarrollHitsUnder 1.50.931+10.0%HighWin
Nolan ArenadoHitsUnder 1.50.860+12.1%HighWin
Ildemaro VargasHitsOver 1.51.240-1.9%LowLoss
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.HitsUnder 1.50.722+16.0%HighLoss
Geraldo PerdomoHitsUnder 1.50.621+16.2%HighWin
Ryan WaldschmidtHitsUnder 0.50.861-0.8%LowLoss
Adrian Del CastilloHitsUnder 0.50.580+10.4%HighWin
Ketel MarteTotal BasesUnder 1.51.363+7.9%HighLoss
Corbin CarrollTotal BasesUnder 1.51.632+1.2%LowLoss
Nolan ArenadoTotal BasesUnder 1.51.520-2.1%LowWin
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Total BasesUnder 1.50.903+17.5%HighLoss
Ildemaro VargasTotal BasesOver 1.51.950+6.4%HighLoss
Geraldo PerdomoTotal BasesUnder 1.50.951+6.5%HighWin
Adrian Del CastilloTotal BasesUnder 1.51.030+2.9%MediumWin
Ryan WaldschmidtTotal BasesUnder 1.51.141+2.2%LowWin
BAL @ WSH
121628 dec42.9%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Chris BassittStrikeoutsOver 4.54.404+2.9%MediumLoss
Cade CavalliStrikeoutsUnder 4.55.138-2.4%LowLoss
Gunnar HendersonHitsUnder 1.50.830+9.2%HighWin
Adley RutschmanHitsUnder 1.50.970+0.2%LowWin
Daylen LileHitsOver 1.51.251+5.3%HighLoss
CJ AbramsHitsOver 0.51.073+0.2%LowWin
Pete AlonsoHitsUnder 0.50.802+2.0%LowLoss
Samuel BasalloHitsOver 0.51.141+3.0%MediumWin
James WoodHitsOver 0.50.891-2.9%LowWin
Taylor WardHitsUnder 0.50.722+3.9%MediumLoss
Jeremiah JacksonHitsUnder 0.50.681+2.5%MediumLoss
Brady HouseHitsUnder 0.50.762-1.7%LowLoss
Keibert RuizHitsUnder 0.50.733-0.8%LowLoss
Tyler O'NeillHitsUnder 0.50.321+17.2%HighLoss
Jacob YoungHitsUnder 0.50.692-0.5%LowLoss
Coby MayoHitsUnder 0.50.641+0.2%LowLoss
Gunnar HendersonTotal BasesUnder 1.51.350-3.3%LowWin
James WoodTotal BasesOver 1.51.922+8.8%HighWin
CJ AbramsTotal BasesOver 1.51.945+8.9%HighWin
Pete AlonsoTotal BasesOver 1.51.583+3.1%MediumWin
Adley RutschmanTotal BasesOver 1.51.880+8.3%HighLoss
Daylen LileTotal BasesOver 1.52.421+20.2%HighLoss
Samuel BasalloTotal BasesOver 1.51.784+8.4%HighWin
Tyler O'NeillTotal BasesUnder 1.50.454+18.6%HighLoss
Brady HouseTotal BasesOver 1.51.466+6.8%HighWin
Taylor WardTotal BasesUnder 1.50.962-1.9%LowLoss
Jeremiah JacksonTotal BasesOver 1.51.031+1.4%LowLoss
Cade CavalliStrikeoutsOver 5.55.138+0.7%LowWin
PHI @ PIT
171128 dec60.7%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Bubba ChandlerStrikeoutsUnder 4.54.302+2.4%LowWin
Trea TurnerHitsUnder 1.50.932+3.4%MediumLoss
Bryce HarperHitsOver 0.51.221+4.8%MediumWin
J.T. RealmutoHitsUnder 0.50.750+1.4%LowWin
Alec BohmHitsOver 0.50.902-0.8%LowWin
Brandon MarshHitsOver 0.51.411+14.4%HighWin
Bryson StottHitsOver 0.50.880-1.4%LowLoss
Kyle SchwarberHitsOver 0.51.091+5.5%HighWin
Bryan ReynoldsHitsOver 0.50.842-3.2%LowWin
Konnor GriffinHitsOver 0.50.922-0.0%LowWin
Oneil CruzHitsOver 0.51.110+5.9%HighLoss
Ryan O'HearnHitsOver 0.50.980+2.8%MediumLoss
Marcell OzunaHitsUnder 0.50.710-1.1%LowWin
Nick GonzalesHitsOver 0.51.012+3.0%MediumWin
Justin CrawfordHitsOver 0.50.890+2.1%LowLoss
Jared TrioloHitsOver 0.50.840+3.9%MediumLoss
Brandon LoweHitsOver 0.50.990+9.1%HighLoss
Henry DavisHitsUnder 0.50.440+2.3%LowWin
Trea TurnerTotal BasesUnder 1.51.193+2.2%LowLoss
Kyle SchwarberTotal BasesOver 1.53.262+24.1%HighWin
Bryce HarperTotal BasesOver 1.52.344+16.2%HighWin
J.T. RealmutoTotal BasesUnder 1.50.990+2.6%MediumWin
Brandon MarshTotal BasesOver 1.51.831+14.4%HighLoss
Bryson StottTotal BasesOver 1.51.480+6.7%HighLoss
Oneil CruzTotal BasesOver 1.51.860+15.1%HighLoss
Alec BohmTotal BasesOver 1.51.413+6.8%HighWin
Bryan ReynoldsTotal BasesOver 1.51.083-0.0%LowWin
Konnor GriffinTotal BasesOver 1.51.423+8.0%HighWin
MIA @ TB
7613 dec53.8%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Nick MartinezStrikeoutsUnder 4.53.764+7.5%HighWin
Sandy AlcantaraStrikeoutsUnder 4.54.156-2.9%LowLoss
Xavier EdwardsHitsUnder 1.51.031-2.4%LowWin
Otto LopezHitsOver 0.51.322+10.9%HighWin
Liam HicksHitsUnder 0.50.912-3.4%LowLoss
Kyle StowersHitsUnder 0.50.621+4.0%MediumLoss
Jakob MarseeHitsUnder 0.50.703-0.4%LowLoss
Connor NorbyHitsUnder 0.50.681-0.8%LowLoss
Joe MackHitsOver 0.50.601-2.9%LowWin
Owen CaissieHitsUnder 0.50.490-1.4%LowWin
Xavier EdwardsTotal BasesOver 1.51.771+14.5%HighLoss
Liam HicksTotal BasesOver 1.51.572+10.5%HighWin
Otto LopezTotal BasesOver 1.51.933+19.2%HighWin
CIN @ CLE
12618 dec66.7%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Joey CantilloStrikeoutsUnder 4.53.334+25.4%LowWin
Steven KwanHitsUnder 1.50.591+14.7%HighWin
Chase DeLauterHitsOver 1.51.010-0.7%LowLoss
Sal StewartHitsUnder 0.50.860-3.2%LowWin
Travis BazzanaHitsOver 0.50.851-0.2%LowWin
Kyle ManzardoHitsUnder 0.50.712-1.6%LowLoss
Daniel SchneemannHitsUnder 0.50.730-2.7%LowWin
Elly De La CruzHitsOver 0.51.351+18.1%HighWin
Brayan RocchioHitsOver 0.50.892+1.6%LowWin
Tyler StephensonHitsUnder 0.50.640+0.2%LowWin
Nathaniel LoweHitsUnder 0.50.620+0.9%LowWin
Spencer SteerHitsOver 0.51.071+11.5%HighWin
Will BensonHitsUnder 0.50.390+10.1%HighWin
Matt McLainHitsOver 0.50.960+10.9%HighLoss
Chase DeLauterTotal BasesOver 1.51.630+3.3%MediumLoss
Steven KwanTotal BasesUnder 1.50.751+12.6%HighWin
Sal StewartTotal BasesOver 1.51.530+7.3%HighLoss
Kyle ManzardoTotal BasesUnder 1.51.062+0.6%LowLoss
CHC @ CWS
161026 dec61.5%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Davis MartinStrikeoutsOver 5.57.697+41.5%LowWin
Jameson TaillonStrikeoutsOver 5.55.002-2.3%LowLoss
Nico HoernerHitsUnder 1.50.831+7.5%HighWin
Sam AntonacciHitsOver 0.50.942+0.5%LowWin
Michael BuschHitsOver 0.50.921-0.0%LowWin
Alex BregmanHitsOver 0.51.052+6.4%HighWin
Miguel VargasHitsOver 0.51.041+6.6%HighWin
Chase MeidrothHitsOver 0.51.060+8.5%HighLoss
Ian HappHitsOver 0.50.840+0.2%LowLoss
Pete Crow-ArmstrongHitsOver 0.50.831+0.7%LowWin
Colson MontgomeryHitsOver 0.50.931+5.6%HighWin
Andrew BenintendiHitsOver 0.50.742-3.2%LowWin
Seiya SuzukiHitsOver 0.50.850+0.3%LowLoss
Munetaka MurakamiHitsOver 0.50.802+3.3%MediumWin
Tristan PetersHitsOver 0.50.640-1.3%LowLoss
Drew RomoHitsOver 0.50.640-0.2%LowLoss
Jarred KelenicHitsOver 0.50.750+5.7%HighLoss
Nico HoernerTotal BasesUnder 1.51.211-2.8%LowWin
Colson MontgomeryTotal BasesOver 1.52.044+16.2%HighWin
Michael BuschTotal BasesOver 1.51.401+3.1%MediumLoss
Alex BregmanTotal BasesOver 1.51.473+5.8%HighWin
Ian HappTotal BasesOver 1.51.580+8.2%HighLoss
Miguel VargasTotal BasesOver 1.52.184+19.9%HighWin
Sam AntonacciTotal BasesOver 1.51.322+2.9%MediumWin
Davis MartinStrikeoutsOver 4.57.697+31.7%LowWin
Jameson TaillonStrikeoutsOver 4.55.002+0.9%LowLoss
TEX @ HOU
9817 dec52.9%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Jacob deGromStrikeoutsOver 7.57.244-1.4%LowLoss
Brandon NimmoHitsOver 0.50.890-3.4%LowLoss
Yordan AlvarezHitsOver 0.51.041+4.6%MediumWin
Josh JungHitsOver 0.51.200+9.1%HighLoss
Jose AltuveHitsOver 0.50.931-0.3%LowWin
Ezequiel DuranHitsOver 0.50.931+5.2%HighWin
Jake BurgerHitsOver 0.50.831+0.7%LowWin
Christian WalkerHitsUnder 0.50.681-1.4%LowLoss
Evan CarterHitsUnder 0.50.560+0.2%LowWin
Isaac ParedesHitsOver 0.50.860+6.0%HighLoss
Joc PedersonHitsUnder 0.50.511+1.0%LowLoss
Braden ShewmakeHitsOver 0.51.230+24.0%HighLoss
Alejandro OsunaHitsOver 0.50.561-3.3%LowWin
Brice MatthewsHitsOver 0.50.660+2.2%LowLoss
Zach ColeHitsOver 0.50.701+8.1%HighWin
Yordan AlvarezTotal BasesOver 1.52.014+11.7%HighWin
Jose AltuveTotal BasesOver 1.51.264+3.3%MediumWin
MIL @ MIN
121123 dec52.2%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Connor PrielippStrikeoutsOver 4.55.118+6.3%HighWin
Logan HendersonStrikeoutsOver 5.55.337+2.3%LowWin
Jackson ChourioHitsOver 1.51.332+9.0%HighWin
Brice TurangHitsOver 0.51.151+5.2%HighWin
Andrew VaughnHitsOver 0.50.891-1.8%LowWin
Austin MartinHitsOver 0.51.150+7.5%HighLoss
William ContrerasHitsOver 0.50.901-3.2%LowWin
Luis RengifoHitsOver 0.50.860-1.8%LowLoss
Brooks LeeHitsOver 0.51.030+5.8%HighLoss
Josh BellHitsUnder 0.50.731-2.3%LowLoss
Sal FrelickHitsOver 0.50.820+0.3%LowLoss
Ryan JeffersHitsOver 0.50.871+2.3%LowWin
Kody ClemensHitsOver 0.50.812+3.6%MediumWin
Joey OrtizHitsUnder 0.50.540+0.9%LowWin
Royce LewisHitsUnder 0.50.431+5.7%HighLoss
James OutmanHitsOver 0.50.561+2.3%LowWin
Jackson ChourioTotal BasesOver 1.51.786+4.7%MediumWin
Andrew VaughnTotal BasesOver 1.51.441+3.2%MediumLoss
William ContrerasTotal BasesOver 1.51.161-3.4%LowLoss
Brice TurangTotal BasesOver 1.51.941+16.3%HighLoss
Brooks LeeTotal BasesOver 1.51.480+7.3%HighLoss
Austin MartinTotal BasesOver 1.51.440+6.1%HighLoss
Luis RengifoTotal BasesUnder 1.50.970+3.4%MediumWin
BOS @ ATL
91221 dec42.9%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Bryce ElderStrikeoutsOver 5.56.683+23.0%HighLoss
Payton TolleStrikeoutsOver 4.55.973+10.8%HighLoss
Ozzie AlbiesHitsUnder 1.50.740+6.0%HighWin
Michael Harris IIHitsOver 0.51.020-1.1%LowLoss
Drake BaldwinHitsOver 0.51.052+4.6%MediumWin
Jarren DuranHitsUnder 0.50.651+3.2%MediumLoss
Masataka YoshidaHitsUnder 0.50.690+0.7%LowWin
Matt OlsonHitsOver 0.51.010+6.7%HighLoss
Wilyer AbreuHitsOver 0.51.172+9.5%HighWin
Austin RileyHitsOver 0.50.910+3.5%MediumLoss
Willson ContrerasHitsUnder 0.50.732-2.7%LowLoss
Ceddanne RafaelaHitsOver 0.51.141+15.4%HighWin
Marcelo MayerHitsOver 0.50.710+0.9%LowLoss
Caleb DurbinHitsUnder 0.50.530-0.7%LowWin
Ozzie AlbiesTotal BasesOver 1.51.250-3.3%LowLoss
Jarren DuranTotal BasesUnder 1.51.082-2.4%LowLoss
Michael Harris IITotal BasesOver 1.51.570+7.5%HighLoss
Wilyer AbreuTotal BasesOver 1.51.773+11.5%HighWin
Matt OlsonTotal BasesOver 1.52.090+19.7%HighLoss
Drake BaldwinTotal BasesOver 1.52.175+21.2%HighWin
Willson ContrerasTotal BasesOver 1.51.325+3.6%MediumWin
NYY @ NYM
14721 dec66.7%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Bo BichetteHitsUnder 1.50.630+13.0%HighWin
Cody BellingerHitsOver 0.50.940-2.6%LowLoss
Aaron JudgeHitsOver 0.50.932-1.4%LowWin
Ben RiceHitsOver 0.51.090+5.2%HighLoss
Mark VientosHitsUnder 0.50.801-2.1%LowLoss
Paul GoldschmidtHitsOver 0.50.952+1.9%LowWin
Carson BengeHitsOver 0.51.043+8.0%HighWin
Trent GrishamHitsUnder 0.50.531+6.4%HighLoss
Amed RosarioHitsOver 0.50.801-0.6%LowWin
Marcus SemienHitsOver 0.50.910+3.8%MediumLoss
Juan SotoHitsOver 0.50.852+3.3%MediumWin
Brett BatyHitsOver 0.50.801+3.5%MediumWin
Luis TorrensHitsUnder 0.50.530+0.5%LowWin
Jazz Chisholm Jr.HitsOver 0.50.792+9.7%HighWin
Austin WellsHitsOver 0.50.461-2.9%LowWin
Aaron JudgeTotal BasesOver 1.51.943+9.4%HighWin
Bo BichetteTotal BasesUnder 1.50.760+12.8%HighWin
Cody BellingerTotal BasesOver 1.51.550+5.4%HighLoss
Ben RiceTotal BasesOver 1.52.380+21.1%HighLoss
Mark VientosTotal BasesOver 1.51.472+5.9%HighWin
Paul GoldschmidtTotal BasesOver 1.51.952+16.4%HighWin
LAD @ LAA
111122 dec50.0%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Justin WrobleskiStrikeoutsUnder 5.53.805+15.1%HighWin
Freddie FreemanHitsUnder 1.50.970+1.1%LowWin
Vaughn GrissomHitsUnder 0.50.631+10.1%HighLoss
Shohei OhtaniHitsUnder 0.50.812+1.7%LowLoss
Jo AdellHitsUnder 0.50.911-3.2%LowLoss
Mookie BettsHitsUnder 0.50.542+12.4%HighLoss
Nolan SchanuelHitsOver 0.51.100+8.0%HighLoss
Will SmithHitsOver 0.50.831-3.2%LowWin
Oswald PerazaHitsUnder 0.50.800-2.9%LowWin
Andy PagesHitsOver 0.51.061+6.5%HighWin
Zach NetoHitsOver 0.50.941+5.2%HighWin
Mike TroutHitsOver 0.50.780-0.6%LowLoss
Jorge SolerHitsUnder 0.50.642-2.8%LowLoss
Max MuncyHitsOver 0.50.761+0.2%LowWin
Hyeseong KimHitsOver 0.50.750+3.2%MediumLoss
Shohei OhtaniTotal BasesOver 1.51.425+0.1%LowWin
Jo AdellTotal BasesOver 1.51.622+5.3%HighWin
Freddie FreemanTotal BasesOver 1.51.570+5.9%HighLoss
Vaughn GrissomTotal BasesUnder 1.51.121-1.5%LowWin
Mookie BettsTotal BasesOver 1.51.315+2.1%LowWin
Will SmithTotal BasesOver 1.51.281+2.7%MediumLoss
Oswald PerazaTotal BasesOver 1.51.380+7.2%HighLoss
SF @ ATH
101 dec100.0%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Luis SeverinoStrikeoutsOver 4.55.107+1.1%LowWin
2026-05-15all settled dates2026-05-17
hit rate excludes pushes · settled decisive rows only · educational use only · not betting advice