15 MLB games · 231 model-vs-market reads
Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.
Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.
Comerica Park10 leansFinal · graded
TOR@DET

Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
first pitch1:10 PM ET
TOR@DET
Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
Game details · probable pitchers
- Notelast 3 5.7 K
- Noteseason 5.8 K
- Note6 starts
- Noteflagged: edge above anomaly threshold
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.73
- Note26 games
- Notelast 10 0.40
- Noteseason 1.05
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.88
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 1.10
- Noteseason 1.16
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.88
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.62
- Note24 games
- Notesample too small to project
- Notesample too small to project
- Notesample too small to project
Busch Stadium20 leansFinal · graded
KC@STL

Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals
first pitch2:15 PM ET
KC@STL
Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals
Game details · probable pitchers
- Notelast 3 5.7 K
- Noteseason 4.0 K
- Note8 starts
- Notelast 3 5.0 K
- Noteseason 4.6 K
- Note7 starts
- Notelast 10 0.10
- Noteseason 0.47
- Note19 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.79
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 1.60
- Noteseason 1.22
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 1.20
- Noteseason 1.19
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.76
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.91
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.74
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.73
- Note37 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.78
- Note40 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.82
- Note39 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.97
- Note39 games
- Notelast 10 1.10
- Noteseason 1.05
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.61
- Note28 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.81
- Note36 games
- Notelast 10 1.10
- Noteseason 1.09
- Note43 games
- Notesample too small to project
- Notesample too small to project
- Notesample too small to project
Coors Field11 leansFinal · graded
AZ@COL

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
first pitch3:10 PM ET
AZ@COL
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Game details · probable pitchers
- Notelast 3 5.0 K
- Noteseason 4.1 K
- Note8 starts
- Notelast 3 1.7 K
- Noteseason 3.0 K
- Note8 starts
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.83
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.75
- Note40 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.74
- Note19 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.93
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.75
- Note24 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.65
- Note26 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.95
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 1.10
- Noteseason 1.39
- Note36 games
- Notelast 10 0.86
- Noteseason 0.86
- Note7 games
Nationals Park20 leansFinal · graded
BAL@WSH

Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals
first pitch4:05 PM ET
BAL@WSH
Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals
Game details · probable pitchers
- Notelast 3 5.3 K
- Noteseason 3.2 K
- Note8 starts
- Notelast 3 5.3 K
- Noteseason 4.9 K
- Note9 starts
- Notelast 3 5.3 K
- Noteseason 4.9 K
- Note9 starts
- Notelast 10 0.20
- Noteseason 0.44
- Note25 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.86
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 1.40
- Noteseason 1.09
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.93
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 1.30
- Noteseason 0.97
- Note35 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.86
- Note37 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.89
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.80
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.82
- Note40 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.65
- Note26 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.78
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 1.03
- Note29 games
- Notelast 10 1.10
- Noteseason 1.05
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.57
- Note35 games
- Notesample too small to project
- Notesample too small to project
- Notesample too small to project
PNC Park20 leansFinal · graded
PHI@PIT

Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
first pitch4:05 PM ET
PHI@PIT
Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Game details · probable pitchers
- Notelast 3 4.3 K
- Noteseason 4.2 K
- Note8 starts
- Notesample too small to project
- Notelast 10 1.60
- Noteseason 1.22
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 0.97
- Note39 games
- Notelast 10 1.10
- Noteseason 1.12
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 1.30
- Noteseason 0.89
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 1.40
- Noteseason 1.05
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.79
- Note14 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.95
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 1.12
- Note40 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 1.07
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.89
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 0.40
- Noteseason 0.48
- Note27 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.88
- Note40 games
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 0.77
- Note39 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.81
- Note26 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.71
- Note38 games
- Notelast 10 1.10
- Noteseason 0.71
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.95
- Note38 games
- Notesample too small to project
Tropicana Field11 leansFinal · graded
MIA@TB

Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays
first pitch4:10 PM ET
MIA@TB
Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays
Game details · probable pitchers
- Notelast 3 3.7 K
- Noteseason 3.9 K
- Note8 starts
- Notelast 3 4.0 K
- Noteseason 4.3 K
- Note9 starts
- Notelast 10 1.30
- Noteseason 1.34
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.74
- Note23 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.50
- Note12 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.93
- Note42 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.60
- Note10 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 1.16
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 0.40
- Noteseason 0.58
- Note38 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.75
- Note40 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.70
- Note44 games
Progressive Field17 leansFinal · graded
CIN@CLE

Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians
first pitch6:10 PM ET
CIN@CLE
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians
Game details · probable pitchers
- Notelast 3 2.3 K
- Noteseason 4.6 K
- Note9 starts
- Noteflagged: edge above anomaly threshold
- Notelast 10 1.50
- Noteseason 1.20
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 0.40
- Noteseason 0.78
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 0.20
- Noteseason 0.39
- Note31 games
- Notelast 10 1.20
- Noteseason 0.93
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 1.10
- Noteseason 0.81
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 0.40
- Noteseason 0.37
- Note35 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.91
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.86
- Note36 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.62
- Note40 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.89
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.73
- Note30 games
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 1.02
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.80
- Note15 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.57
- Note35 games
- Notesample too small to project
- Notesample too small to project
Daikin Park19 leansFinal · graded
TEX@HOU

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
first pitch7:10 PM ET
TEX@HOU
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Game details · probable pitchers
- Notelast 3 7.3 K
- Noteseason 7.1 K
- Note8 starts
- Notelast 10 1.30
- Noteseason 1.15
- Note13 games
- Notelast 10 0.30
- Noteseason 0.67
- Note42 games
- Notelast 10 1.20
- Noteseason 1.20
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.70
- Note10 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.93
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 0.85
- Note34 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 1.17
- Note46 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 1.07
- Note42 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.53
- Note19 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.65
- Note20 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.63
- Note35 games
- Notelast 10 0.40
- Noteseason 0.96
- Note46 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.53
- Note40 games
- Notelast 10 0.20
- Noteseason 0.67
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.86
- Note42 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.95
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.52
- Note44 games
- Notesample too small to project
Rate Field22 leansFinal · graded
CHC@CWS

Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
first pitch7:10 PM ET
CHC@CWS
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
Game details · probable pitchers
- Notelast 3 8.7 K
- Noteseason 6.5 K
- Note8 starts
- Noteflagged: edge above anomaly threshold
- Notelast 3 8.7 K
- Noteseason 6.5 K
- Note8 starts
- Noteflagged: edge above anomaly threshold
- Notelast 3 5.0 K
- Noteseason 5.0 K
- Note8 starts
- Notelast 3 5.0 K
- Noteseason 5.0 K
- Note8 starts
- Notelast 10 0.30
- Noteseason 0.69
- Note39 games
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 1.00
- Note32 games
- Notelast 10 1.10
- Noteseason 1.02
- Note42 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 1.07
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 1.20
- Noteseason 0.88
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 1.10
- Noteseason 1.00
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.69
- Note13 games
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 0.86
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.80
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.68
- Note40 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.64
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.68
- Note38 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.87
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 0.88
- Note26 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 1.00
- Note31 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.88
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.58
- Note12 games
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 0.84
- Note44 games
Target Field20 leansFinal · graded
MIL@MIN

Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins
first pitch7:10 PM ET
MIL@MIN
Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins
Game details · probable pitchers
- Notelast 3 5.0 K
- Noteseason 5.2 K
- Note4 starts
- Notelast 3 5.3 K
- Noteseason 5.3 K
- Note3 starts
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 1.00
- Note7 games
- Notelast 10 1.33
- Noteseason 1.33
- Note9 games
- Notelast 10 1.30
- Noteseason 1.00
- Note36 games
- Notelast 10 1.10
- Noteseason 0.95
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 0.30
- Noteseason 0.55
- Note29 games
- Notelast 10 1.20
- Noteseason 1.10
- Note39 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.72
- Note32 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 1.10
- Note40 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.77
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.41
- Note17 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.94
- Note34 games
- Notelast 10 0.89
- Noteseason 0.89
- Note9 games
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 0.72
- Note36 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.58
- Note31 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.67
- Note39 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.82
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.75
- Note40 games
- Notesample too small to project
T-Mobile Park0 leans
SD@SEA

San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners
first pitch7:15 PM ET
SD@SEA
San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners
Game details · probable pitchers
Truist Park20 leansFinal · graded
BOS@ATL

Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves
first pitch7:15 PM ET
BOS@ATL
Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves
Game details · probable pitchers
- Notelast 3 7.3 K
- Noteseason 5.9 K
- Note9 starts
- Notelast 3 5.3 K
- Noteseason 6.8 K
- Note4 starts
- Notelast 10 1.30
- Noteseason 0.98
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 1.20
- Noteseason 1.14
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 1.11
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 0.40
- Noteseason 1.09
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 1.20
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.83
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 0.82
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.69
- Note39 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.86
- Note42 games
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 1.05
- Note42 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.71
- Note38 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.71
- Note17 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.69
- Note29 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.56
- Note41 games
- Notesample too small to project
- Notesample too small to project
- Notesample too small to project
- Notesample too small to project
Citi Field20 leansFinal · graded
NYY@NYM

New York Yankees at New York Mets
first pitch7:15 PM ET
NYY@NYM
New York Yankees at New York Mets
Game details · probable pitchers
- Notesample too small to project
- Notesample too small to project
- Notelast 10 0.40
- Noteseason 0.86
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.77
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 1.30
- Noteseason 0.78
- Note40 games
- Notelast 10 0.30
- Noteseason 0.45
- Note31 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.56
- Note43 games
- Notelast 10 1.10
- Noteseason 1.07
- Note40 games
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 0.82
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.71
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 1.00
- Note29 games
- Notelast 10 0.40
- Noteseason 0.53
- Note34 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.98
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.81
- Note36 games
- Notelast 10 1.10
- Noteseason 0.80
- Note20 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 0.96
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.79
- Note24 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.55
- Note20 games
- Notesample too small to project
- Notesample too small to project
Angel Stadium20 leansFinal · graded
LAD@LAA

Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels
first pitch9:38 PM ET
LAD@LAA
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels
Game details · probable pitchers
- Notelast 3 4.3 K
- Noteseason 3.1 K
- Note7 starts
- Notesample too small to project
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.58
- Note12 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.76
- Note25 games
- Notelast 10 1.20
- Noteseason 1.00
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 1.11
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 1.00
- Noteseason 0.89
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.80
- Note30 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 1.02
- Note45 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.87
- Note38 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.79
- Note39 games
- Notelast 10 0.50
- Noteseason 0.78
- Note41 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.93
- Note40 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.50
- Note20 games
- Notelast 10 0.90
- Noteseason 1.05
- Note42 games
- Notelast 10 0.70
- Noteseason 0.86
- Note44 games
- Notelast 10 0.60
- Noteseason 0.93
- Note42 games
- Notelast 10 0.80
- Noteseason 0.91
- Note44 games
- Notesample too small to project
- Notesample too small to project
Sutter Health Park1 leanFinal · graded
SF@ATH

San Francisco Giants at Athletics
first pitch9:40 PM ET
SF@ATH
San Francisco Giants at Athletics
Game details · probable pitchers
- Notelast 3 5.0 K
- Noteseason 5.2 K
- Note9 starts
Open the MLB Power Board →
HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.
