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EducationalNot betting advice · research use only.
GameTime Picks
Settled projections · Friday, July 10

57.1%

121–91 on 212 decisive

Combined audit across the sports that had settled rows on 2026-07-10. Pushes excluded. Pending games never count as losses.

At a glance
Hit
121
model agreed and the line cleared
Miss
91
model agreed but the line did not clear
Push
0
final stat tied the line — excluded from hit rate
Pending
0
no games still pending on this date
MLB
57.1%
12191 on 212
Biggest hits
  • MLBShane BieberUnder 4.5 Strikeouts+27.6pp edgeactual 4
  • MLBSean BurkeOver 5.5 Strikeouts+20.9pp edgeactual 9
  • MLBRiley GreeneOver 1.5 Total Bases+20.0pp edgeactual 2
  • MLBJake McCarthyOver 1.5 Total Bases+19.4pp edgeactual 3
  • MLBBrandon YoungOver 4.5 Strikeouts+18.7pp edgeactual 5
Biggest misses
  • MLBSonny GrayOver 5.5 Strikeouts+16.4pp edgeactual 3
  • MLBHeliot RamosOver 1.5 Total Bases+13.7pp edgeactual 0
  • MLBTanner GordonOver 3.5 Strikeouts+9.8pp edgeactual 1
  • MLBSandy AlcantaraUnder 5.5 Strikeouts+9.1pp edgeactual 8
  • MLBParker MessickOver 5.5 Strikeouts+8.7pp edgeactual 1
MLB settled games · projection vs actual
PHI @ DET
121426 dec46.2%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Aaron NolaStrikeoutsOver 5.55.478-1.2%LowWin
Jack FlahertyStrikeoutsUnder 5.55.196+4.8%MediumLoss
Kevin McGonigleHitsOver 0.51.141+5.5%HighWin
Trea TurnerHitsOver 0.51.140+4.5%MediumLoss
Riley GreeneHitsOver 0.51.131+5.8%HighWin
Brandon MarshHitsOver 0.51.071+2.6%MediumWin
Bryce HarperHitsUnder 0.50.710+4.0%MediumWin
Alec BohmHitsUnder 0.50.750+0.4%LowWin
Colt KeithHitsUnder 0.50.721-0.2%LowLoss
Zach McKinstryHitsOver 0.50.870+0.3%LowLoss
Bryson StottHitsOver 0.51.030+7.5%HighLoss
Spencer TorkelsonHitsOver 0.50.811-0.4%LowWin
Matt VierlingHitsUnder 0.50.620+1.6%LowWin
Kyle SchwarberHitsOver 0.50.930+2.6%MediumLoss
J.T. RealmutoHitsUnder 0.50.64-0.8%LowVoid
Justin CrawfordHitsOver 0.51.06+11.8%HighVoid
Kerry CarpenterHitsUnder 0.50.670-2.6%LowWin
Gabriel Rincones Jr.HitsOver 0.50.720+2.0%LowLoss
Jake RogersHitsUnder 0.50.491-2.4%LowLoss
James OutmanHitsUnder 0.50.391+0.8%LowLoss
Trea TurnerTotal BasesOver 1.51.950+14.6%HighLoss
Kevin McGonigleTotal BasesOver 1.51.544+5.0%MediumWin
Riley GreeneTotal BasesOver 1.52.252+20.0%LowWin
Bryce HarperTotal BasesOver 1.51.390+2.8%MediumLoss
Brandon MarshTotal BasesOver 1.51.941+14.2%HighLoss
Kyle SchwarberTotal BasesOver 1.51.820+10.9%HighLoss
Spencer TorkelsonTotal BasesOver 1.51.604+8.7%HighWin
Alec BohmTotal BasesOver 1.51.470+9.2%HighLoss
MIL @ PIT
000 dec
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
William ContrerasHitsUnder 1.50.85+0.8%LowVoid
Jake MangumHitsOver 0.51.21+2.4%LowVoid
Jackson ChourioHitsOver 0.51.05-1.1%LowVoid
Nick GonzalesHitsOver 0.51.32+7.3%HighVoid
Christian YelichHitsUnder 0.50.72+3.6%MediumVoid
Brandon LoweHitsOver 0.50.98+3.1%MediumVoid
Bryan ReynoldsHitsOver 0.51.01+4.1%MediumVoid
Ryan O'HearnHitsOver 0.51.14+6.0%HighVoid
Brice TurangHitsOver 0.51.28+13.0%HighVoid
Sal FrelickHitsUnder 0.50.68+0.1%LowVoid
Esmerlyn ValdezHitsOver 0.51.13+10.9%HighVoid
Jake BauersHitsOver 0.50.91+5.0%HighVoid
Garrett MitchellHitsOver 0.51.18+16.0%HighVoid
Jared TrioloHitsOver 0.50.82+4.7%MediumVoid
Joey OrtizHitsOver 0.50.77+3.6%MediumVoid
Cooper PrattHitsOver 0.50.84+7.7%HighVoid
Tyler CallihanHitsOver 0.50.77+5.8%HighVoid
Henry DavisHitsOver 0.50.53-0.3%LowVoid
Brandon LoweTotal BasesOver 1.51.67+6.5%HighVoid
Jackson ChourioTotal BasesOver 1.51.77+8.6%HighVoid
William ContrerasTotal BasesUnder 1.51.07-3.4%LowVoid
Bryan ReynoldsTotal BasesOver 1.51.92+14.9%HighVoid
Jake MangumTotal BasesOver 1.51.63+10.5%HighVoid
Christian YelichTotal BasesOver 1.51.25+1.9%LowVoid
Ryan O'HearnTotal BasesOver 1.52.02+16.9%HighVoid
Brice TurangTotal BasesOver 1.52.11+21.2%LowVoid
Nick GonzalesTotal BasesOver 1.51.73+16.2%HighVoid
NYY @ WSH
9817 dec52.9%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Ryan WeathersStrikeoutsOver 5.55.506+3.9%MediumWin
Ben RiceHitsUnder 1.51.061-2.0%LowWin
Paul GoldschmidtHitsUnder 1.50.452+16.1%HighLoss
Cody BellingerHitsUnder 1.50.712+9.7%HighLoss
Jasson DomínguezHitsUnder 1.50.942+2.6%MediumLoss
Daylen LileHitsOver 0.50.990-0.7%LowLoss
Curtis MeadHitsOver 0.51.041+3.4%MediumWin
Jazz Chisholm Jr.HitsUnder 0.50.641+6.6%HighLoss
James WoodHitsOver 0.51.163+5.6%HighWin
Dylan CrewsHitsUnder 0.50.830-2.8%LowWin
Trent GrishamHitsOver 0.50.901-1.5%LowWin
CJ AbramsHitsOver 0.50.961+5.4%HighWin
Jacob YoungHitsUnder 0.50.631+1.0%LowLoss
Keibert RuizHitsOver 0.50.861+2.4%LowWin
Ryan McMahonHitsUnder 0.50.660-3.3%LowWin
Austin WellsHitsUnder 0.50.321+10.5%HighLoss
Andrés ChaparroHitsUnder 0.50.301+11.0%HighLoss
KC @ BAL
202 dec100.0%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Brandon YoungStrikeoutsOver 4.55.295+18.7%HighWin
Luinder AvilaStrikeoutsUnder 4.53.813+7.7%HighWin
CHC @ CIN
10212 dec83.3%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Shota ImanagaStrikeoutsUnder 5.55.435-1.6%LowWin
Elly De La CruzHitsOver 0.51.082+1.8%LowWin
Sal StewartHitsOver 0.50.982-0.3%LowWin
Spencer SteerHitsUnder 0.50.773+0.4%LowLoss
Noelvi MarteHitsUnder 0.50.670+3.2%MediumWin
JJ BledayHitsOver 0.50.831+1.7%LowWin
Tyler StephensonHitsOver 0.50.972+7.9%HighWin
Edwin ArroyoHitsOver 0.50.792+6.0%HighWin
Elly De La CruzTotal BasesOver 1.51.907+10.3%HighWin
Sal StewartTotal BasesOver 1.52.162+14.8%HighWin
Spencer SteerTotal BasesOver 1.51.293-1.7%LowWin
Noelvi MarteTotal BasesOver 1.51.340+4.5%MediumLoss
CLE @ MIA
9716 dec56.3%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Parker MessickStrikeoutsOver 5.56.031+8.7%HighLoss
Sandy AlcantaraStrikeoutsUnder 5.54.938+9.1%HighLoss
Otto LopezHitsOver 1.51.590+16.5%HighLoss
Xavier EdwardsHitsOver 0.51.151+6.4%HighWin
Brayan RocchioHitsOver 0.50.961-2.1%LowWin
Chase DeLauterHitsOver 0.51.272+10.7%HighWin
Liam HicksHitsOver 0.51.260+10.6%HighLoss
Javier SanojaHitsOver 0.51.090+4.8%MediumLoss
Travis BazzanaHitsUnder 0.50.810-2.3%LowWin
Kyle StowersHitsOver 0.51.110+6.7%HighLoss
Steven KwanHitsOver 0.50.771-1.7%LowWin
Kyle ManzardoHitsUnder 0.50.480+7.5%HighWin
Kahlil WatsonHitsUnder 0.50.600+1.3%LowWin
Daniel SchneemannHitsOver 0.50.680-2.2%LowLoss
Gabriel AriasHitsUnder 0.50.63-3.3%LowVoid
Patrick BaileyHitsUnder 0.50.52-0.9%LowVoid
Jakob MarseeHitsOver 0.50.701+2.4%LowWin
Esteury RuizHitsUnder 0.50.460+0.2%LowWin
SEA @ TB
17825 dec68.0%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Luis CastilloStrikeoutsUnder 4.54.244+2.5%MediumWin
Nick MartinezStrikeoutsUnder 4.53.631+9.7%HighWin
Chandler SimpsonHitsOver 0.51.183+4.2%MediumWin
Randy ArozarenaHitsOver 0.51.021-2.5%LowWin
Junior CamineroHitsUnder 0.50.882-2.5%LowLoss
Josh NaylorHitsOver 0.50.941-0.5%LowWin
Dominic CanzoneHitsUnder 0.50.810-2.0%LowWin
Jonathan ArandaHitsOver 0.51.073+5.1%HighWin
J.P. CrawfordHitsUnder 0.50.682+2.1%LowLoss
Cedric MullinsHitsUnder 0.50.701-2.6%LowLoss
Victor RoblesHitsUnder 0.50.620+0.9%LowWin
Cole YoungHitsOver 0.50.901+5.8%HighWin
Cal RaleighHitsUnder 0.50.660-2.5%LowWin
Victor Mesa Jr.HitsOver 0.50.643-2.8%LowWin
Taylor WallsHitsOver 0.50.700+0.6%LowLoss
Luke RaleyHitsOver 0.50.700+1.8%LowLoss
Colt EmersonHitsOver 0.50.68+2.0%LowVoid
Richie PalaciosHitsOver 0.50.711+5.4%HighWin
Hunter FeducciaHitsOver 0.50.521+2.9%MediumWin
Junior CamineroTotal BasesOver 1.52.146+13.5%HighWin
Dominic CanzoneTotal BasesOver 1.51.680+7.7%HighLoss
Randy ArozarenaTotal BasesOver 1.51.731+9.6%HighLoss
Jonathan ArandaTotal BasesOver 1.51.424+3.0%MediumWin
Chandler SimpsonTotal BasesOver 1.51.603+9.6%HighWin
J.P. CrawfordTotal BasesOver 1.51.023-1.9%LowWin
Josh NaylorTotal BasesOver 1.51.201+2.0%LowLoss
BOS @ NYM
16723 dec69.6%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Nolan McLeanStrikeoutsOver 6.56.807+1.9%LowWin
Sonny GrayStrikeoutsOver 5.57.263+16.4%HighLoss
Bo BichetteHitsOver 0.51.07+3.0%MediumVoid
Ceddanne RafaelaHitsOver 0.51.151+7.2%HighWin
Masataka YoshidaHitsOver 0.50.882-1.6%LowWin
Romy GonzalezHitsOver 0.51.120+8.2%HighLoss
Juan SotoHitsOver 0.50.981+3.2%MediumWin
Wilyer AbreuHitsOver 0.50.853-1.7%LowWin
A.J. EwingHitsOver 0.50.972+3.4%MediumWin
Carson BengeHitsOver 0.51.211+12.2%HighWin
Francisco LindorHitsOver 0.50.821+1.0%LowWin
Caleb DurbinHitsOver 0.50.731-0.7%LowWin
Jarren DuranHitsUnder 0.50.640-2.0%LowWin
Jared YoungHitsOver 0.50.732+0.5%LowWin
Francisco AlvarezHitsOver 0.50.870+8.0%HighLoss
Tsung-Che ChengHitsOver 0.50.862+7.7%HighWin
Anthony SeiglerHitsOver 0.50.852+8.2%HighWin
Jorge PolancoHitsOver 0.50.780+5.3%HighLoss
Brett BatyHitsOver 0.50.853+8.5%HighWin
Juan SotoTotal BasesOver 1.52.131+16.9%HighLoss
Wilyer AbreuTotal BasesOver 1.51.317+2.3%LowWin
Ceddanne RafaelaTotal BasesOver 1.51.751+14.4%HighLoss
Bo BichetteTotal BasesOver 1.51.36+6.8%HighVoid
Romy GonzalezTotal BasesOver 1.51.880+19.3%HighLoss
Masataka YoshidaTotal BasesOver 1.51.224+2.3%LowWin
ATH @ CWS
11617 dec64.7%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Sean BurkeStrikeoutsOver 5.57.239+20.9%LowWin
Jacob WilsonHitsOver 0.50.952-1.9%LowWin
Shea LangeliersHitsOver 0.50.990-1.0%LowLoss
Chase MeidrothHitsUnder 0.50.792+1.1%LowLoss
Miguel VargasHitsUnder 0.50.683+5.1%HighLoss
Sam AntonacciHitsOver 0.51.011+1.7%LowWin
Nick KurtzHitsUnder 0.50.73+0.0%LowVoid
Tyler SoderstromHitsOver 0.50.881+0.3%LowWin
Andrew BenintendiHitsOver 0.50.882+2.9%MediumWin
Braden MontgomeryHitsOver 0.50.751-2.2%LowWin
Kyle TeelHitsUnder 0.50.620+0.1%LowWin
Colson MontgomeryHitsOver 0.50.861+4.7%MediumWin
Tristan PetersHitsOver 0.50.974+10.6%HighWin
Lawrence ButlerHitsOver 0.50.591-2.7%LowWin
Carlos CortesHitsOver 0.50.710+4.2%MediumLoss
Henry BolteHitsOver 0.50.760+6.9%HighLoss
Shea LangeliersTotal BasesOver 1.51.590+1.1%LowLoss
Nick KurtzTotal BasesOver 1.51.30+0.8%LowVoid
Jacob WilsonTotal BasesOver 1.51.352+2.2%LowWin
ATL @ STL
41115 dec26.7%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Chris SaleStrikeoutsOver 5.56.825+13.0%HighLoss
Kyle LeahyStrikeoutsOver 3.54.502+8.7%HighLoss
Michael Harris IIHitsOver 1.51.370+6.3%HighLoss
Drake BaldwinHitsOver 0.51.000-0.5%LowLoss
Matt OlsonHitsOver 0.50.980+0.2%LowLoss
Ozzie AlbiesHitsOver 0.51.080+2.8%MediumLoss
Alec BurlesonHitsOver 0.51.030+3.3%MediumLoss
JJ WetherholtHitsOver 0.51.080+3.8%MediumLoss
Austin RileyHitsUnder 0.50.721+1.1%LowLoss
Jordan WalkerHitsOver 0.51.171+9.4%HighWin
Dominic SmithHitsUnder 0.50.660+2.5%MediumWin
Masyn WinnHitsOver 0.50.960+5.9%HighLoss
Mike YastrzemskiHitsOver 0.50.711-0.1%LowWin
Nathan ChurchHitsOver 0.50.64-2.5%LowVoid
Blaze JordanHitsOver 0.50.681-0.8%LowWin
Chris SaleStrikeoutsOver 6.56.825+9.0%HighLoss
TOR @ SD
71118 dec38.9%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Ernie ClementHitsUnder 1.51.022-2.2%LowLoss
Fernando Tatis Jr.HitsOver 1.51.151+1.6%LowLoss
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.HitsUnder 0.50.781+4.4%MediumLoss
Xander BogaertsHitsUnder 0.50.741+3.2%MediumLoss
Jackson MerrillHitsOver 0.50.931-1.3%LowWin
George SpringerHitsOver 0.50.881+1.4%LowWin
Miguel AndujarHitsOver 0.50.880+0.8%LowLoss
Kazuma OkamotoHitsOver 0.50.791-2.3%LowWin
Manny MachadoHitsOver 0.50.752-2.9%LowWin
Daulton VarshoHitsUnder 0.50.690-0.8%LowWin
Alejandro KirkHitsUnder 0.50.631+1.2%LowLoss
Nathan LukesHitsOver 0.50.920+4.9%MediumLoss
Jake CronenworthHitsOver 0.50.790+2.3%LowLoss
Gavin SheetsHitsOver 0.50.710-0.9%LowLoss
Luis CampusanoHitsOver 0.50.721+1.7%LowWin
Myles StrawHitsUnder 0.50.342+5.8%HighLoss
Sung-Mun SongHitsOver 0.50.57+3.3%MediumVoid
Shane BieberStrikeoutsUnder 4.53.004+27.6%LowWin
JP SearsStrikeoutsOver 3.54.673+23.9%LowLoss
AZ @ LAD
8513 dec61.5%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Eduardo RodriguezStrikeoutsUnder 4.53.505+11.3%HighLoss
Freddie FreemanHitsOver 0.51.260+8.6%HighLoss
Shohei OhtaniHitsOver 0.51.051+0.9%LowWin
Andy PagesHitsUnder 0.50.913-3.1%LowLoss
Mookie BettsHitsOver 0.51.021-0.2%LowWin
Kyle TuckerHitsOver 0.51.001+1.0%LowWin
Ketel MarteHitsOver 0.51.081+5.3%HighWin
Geraldo PerdomoHitsOver 0.50.931+1.8%LowWin
Gabriel MorenoHitsOver 0.51.152+13.5%HighWin
Corbin CarrollHitsUnder 0.50.680-1.8%LowWin
Max MuncyHitsOver 0.50.89+2.8%MediumVoid
Dalton RushingHitsOver 0.51.000+7.2%HighLoss
Max KeplerHitsUnder 0.50.57+0.8%LowVoid
Miguel RojasHitsOver 0.50.722+1.9%LowWin
Tommy TroyHitsOver 0.50.68+3.4%MediumVoid
Nolan ArenadoHitsOver 0.50.920+14.4%HighLoss
James McCannHitsOver 0.50.56+4.3%MediumVoid
COL @ SF
161228 dec57.1%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Robbie RayStrikeoutsUnder 5.54.354+13.2%HighWin
Tanner GordonStrikeoutsOver 3.54.271+9.8%HighLoss
Heliot RamosHitsUnder 1.51.180-2.4%LowWin
Jung Hoo LeeHitsUnder 1.50.931+1.3%LowWin
Luis ArraezHitsOver 1.51.353+6.4%HighWin
Casey SchmittHitsUnder 1.50.962-1.8%LowLoss
Willi CastroHitsUnder 0.50.770+1.4%LowWin
Rafael DeversHitsOver 0.51.023+4.3%MediumWin
Jake McCarthyHitsOver 0.51.032+3.6%MediumWin
Willy AdamesHitsOver 0.50.900-1.1%LowLoss
Kyle KarrosHitsOver 0.50.893+1.6%LowWin
Hunter GoodmanHitsOver 0.50.971+2.1%LowWin
TJ RumfieldHitsOver 0.51.082+8.2%HighWin
Tyler FreemanHitsOver 0.50.860+1.1%LowLoss
Cole CarriggHitsOver 0.51.100+10.6%HighLoss
Bryce EldridgeHitsOver 0.50.980+6.1%HighLoss
Drew CavanaughHitsUnder 0.50.601-2.8%LowLoss
Ezequiel TovarHitsOver 0.50.611-2.8%LowWin
Troy JohnstonHitsOver 0.50.790+7.9%HighLoss
Heliot RamosTotal BasesOver 1.52.420+13.7%HighLoss
Casey SchmittTotal BasesOver 1.51.792+3.4%MediumWin
Jung Hoo LeeTotal BasesUnder 1.51.281-0.9%LowWin
Rafael DeversTotal BasesOver 1.52.116+14.4%HighWin
Luis ArraezTotal BasesOver 1.52.063+15.6%HighWin
Willy AdamesTotal BasesOver 1.51.540+4.3%MediumLoss
Hunter GoodmanTotal BasesOver 1.51.921+10.4%HighLoss
Willi CastroTotal BasesOver 1.51.140-2.0%LowLoss
Jake McCarthyTotal BasesOver 1.51.993+19.4%HighWin
all settled dates
hit rate excludes pushes · settled decisive rows only · educational use only · not betting advice