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MLB model board · 2026-07-10

15 MLB games · 232 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDJul 10, 10:19 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
72
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
38
model vs market · context
Small gap
102
4 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
16
no projection emitted
Strikeouts15 gap ≥ 5 pp·26 totalHits57 gap ≥ 5 pp·206 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Paul Goldschmidt
Paul GoldschmidtNYY vs WSH
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsUnder 1.5+16.1%
proj 0.45-250 · draftkings
Cody Bellinger
Cody BellingerNYY vs WSH
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsUnder 1.5+9.7%
proj 0.71-252 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie FreemanLAD vs AZ
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+8.6%
proj 1.26-265 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice TurangMIL vs PIT
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+13%
proj 1.28-202 · draftkings
Brandon Sproat
Brandon SproatMIL vs PIT
Gap ≥ 5 pp
StrikeoutsOver 4.5+18.5%
proj 6.07-158 · fanduel
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauterCLE vs MIA
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+10.7%
proj 1.27-212 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam HicksMIA vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+10.6%
proj 1.26-212 · draftkings
Nick Gonzales
Nick GonzalesPIT vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+7.3%
proj 1.32-247 · draftkings
Filters · 232 of 232 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Comerica Park20 leansFinal · graded

PHI@DET

Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers

first pitch
6:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Aaron Nola
probable · awayAaron Nola
PHI
Jack Flaherty
probable · homeJack Flaherty
DET
Strikeouts
Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty
DETvsPHIPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER5.5
Projection5.19
Edge+4.8%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.4 K across 17 starts
+100 · fanduel
Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
PHIvsDETPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
OVER5.5
Projection5.47
Edge−1.2%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.2 K across 18 starts
-102 · fanduel
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Justin Crawford
Justin Crawford
PHIvsDETBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.06
Edge+11.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 86 games
-166 · draftkings
Bryson Stott
Bryson Stott
PHIvsDETBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.03
Edge+7.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 88 games
-193 · draftkings
Riley Greene
Riley Greene
DETvsPHIBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.13
Edge+5.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 92 games
-231 · draftkings
Kevin McGonigle
Kevin McGonigle
DETvsPHIBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.14
Edge+5.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.08 across 90 games
-256 · draftkings
Trea Turner
Trea Turner
PHIvsDETBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.14
Edge+4.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 91 games
-247 · draftkings
Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper
PHIvsDETBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge+4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 93 games
+164 · draftkings
Brandon Marsh
Brandon Marsh
PHIvsDETBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.15 across 88 games
-226 · draftkings
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
PHIvsDETBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 90 games
-178 · draftkings
Kerry Carpenter
Kerry Carpenter
DETvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge−2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 70 games
+124 · draftkings
Jake Rogers
Jake Rogers
DETvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.49
Edge−2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.48 across 29 games
-112 · draftkings
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
PHIvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 19 games
-139 · draftkings
Matt Vierling
Matt Vierling
DETvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.62
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 71 games
+134 · draftkings
James Outman
James Outman
DETvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.39
Edge+0.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.38 across 47 games
-119 · draftkings
J.T. Realmuto
J.T. Realmuto
PHIvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.64
Edge−0.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 65 games
+126 · draftkings
Spencer Torkelson
Spencer Torkelson
DETvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge−0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 92 games
-183 · draftkings
Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm
PHIvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.75
Edge+0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 89 games
+163 · draftkings
Zach McKinstry
Zach McKinstry
DETvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 66 games
-199 · draftkings
Colt Keith
Colt Keith
DETvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge−0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 83 games
+150 · draftkings
PNC Park21 leansFinal · graded

MIL@PIT

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

first pitch
6:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Brandon Sproat
probable · awayBrandon Sproat
MIL
Braxton Ashcraft
probable · homeBraxton Ashcraft
PIT
Strikeouts
Brandon Sproat
Brandon Sproat
MILvsPITPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection6.07
Edge+18.5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.9 K across 17 starts
-158 · fanduel
Brandon Sproat
Brandon Sproat
MILvsPITPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER5.5
Projection6.07
Edge+17.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.9 K across 17 starts
+126 · draftkings
Braxton Ashcraft
Braxton AshcraftModel anomaly
PITvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER6.5
Projection7.63
Edge+24.5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.8 K across 18 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+116 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsPITBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.18
Edge+16%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 82 games
-155 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsPITBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.28
Edge+13%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 88 games
-202 · draftkings
Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn Valdez
PITvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.13
Edge+10.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 25 games
-174 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsPITBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+7.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 22 games
-137 · draftkings
Nick Gonzales
Nick Gonzales
PITvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.32
Edge+7.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.15 across 88 games
-247 · draftkings
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
PITvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.14
Edge+6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 79 games
-206 · draftkings
Tyler Callihan
Tyler Callihan
PITvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.77
Edge+5.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 26 games
-131 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsPITBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 84 games
-167 · draftkings
Jared Triolo
Jared Triolo
PITvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.82
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 56 games
-150 · draftkings
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds
PITvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+4.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 94 games
-208 · draftkings
Joey Ortiz
Joey Ortiz
MILvsPITBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.77
Edge+3.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 70 games
-143 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsPITBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+3.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 59 games
+164 · draftkings
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
PITvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 87 games
-215 · draftkings
Jake Mangum
Jake Mangum
PITvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.21
Edge+2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 67 games
-275 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsPITBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge−1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 59 games
-264 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsPITBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection0.85
Edge+0.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 87 games
-262 · draftkings
Henry Davis
Henry Davis
PITvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.53
Edge−0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.46 across 52 games
-107 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
MILvsPITBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge+0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 85 games
+141 · draftkings
Nationals Park19 leansFinal · graded

NYY@WSH

New York Yankees at Washington Nationals

first pitch
6:45 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Ryan Weathers
probable · awayRyan Weathers
NYY
Carson Palmquist
probable · homeCarson Palmquist
WSH
Strikeouts
Ryan Weathers
Ryan Weathers
NYYvsWSHPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER5.5
Projection5.5
Edge+3.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.1 K across 17 starts
+117 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt
NYYvsWSHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.45
Edge+16.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 65 games
-250 · draftkings
Andrés Chaparro
Andrés Chaparro
WSHvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.3
Edge+11%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.30 across 27 games
+107 · draftkings
Austin Wells
Austin Wells
NYYvsWSHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.32
Edge+10.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.44 across 63 games
+109 · draftkings
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger
NYYvsWSHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.71
Edge+9.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 91 games
-252 · draftkings
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYYvsWSHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.64
Edge+6.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 88 games
+171 · draftkings
James Wood
James Wood
WSHvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.16
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 94 games
-226 · draftkings
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
WSHvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+5.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 90 games
-182 · draftkings
Curtis Mead
Curtis Mead
WSHvsNYYBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 77 games
-234 · draftkings
Jasson Domínguez
Jasson Domínguez
NYYvsWSHBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.94
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 32 games
-256 · draftkings
Ryan McMahon
Ryan McMahon
NYYvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.66
Edge−3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 69 games
+118 · draftkings
Dylan Crews
Dylan Crews
WSHvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.83
Edge−2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 43 games
+165 · draftkings
Keibert Ruiz
Keibert Ruiz
WSHvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 59 games
-178 · draftkings
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
NYYvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.06
Edge−2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 88 games
-235 · draftkings
Trent Grisham
Trent Grisham
NYYvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.9
Edge−1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 72 games
-217 · draftkings
Jacob Young
Jacob Young
WSHvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.63
Edge+1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 78 games
+133 · draftkings
Daylen Lile
Daylen Lile
WSHvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.99
Edge−0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 92 games
-242 · draftkings
Jose Caballero
NYY @ WSHBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Nasim Nunez
NYY @ WSHBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Oriole Park at Camden Yards2 leansFinal · graded

KC@BAL

Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles

first pitch
7:05 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Luinder Avila
probable · awayLuinder Avila
KC
Brandon Young
probable · homeBrandon Young
BAL
Strikeouts
Brandon Young
Brandon Young
BALvsKCPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection5.29
Edge+18.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.4 K across 14 starts
+104 · fanduel
Luinder Avila
Luinder Avila
KCvsBALPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER4.5
Projection3.81
Edge+7.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 2.8 K across 17 starts
-142 · fanduel
Great American Ball Park11 leansFinal · graded

CHC@CIN

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

first pitch
7:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Shota Imanaga
probable · awayShota Imanaga
CHC
Hunter Greene
probable · homeHunter Greene
CIN
Strikeouts
Shota Imanaga
Shota Imanaga
CHCvsCINPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
UNDER5.5
Projection5.43
Edge−1.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.6 K across 18 starts
-111 · fanduel
Hunter Greene
Hunter Greene
CINvsCHCPitcherStrikeouts
Sample too small
Line6.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (1 games of log data)
— · fanduel
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Tyler Stephenson
Tyler Stephenson
CINvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+7.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 68 games
-171 · draftkings
Matt McLain
Matt McLain
CINvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.37
Edge+7.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 79 games
+107 · draftkings
Edwin Arroyo
Edwin Arroyo
CINvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.79
Edge+6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 27 games
-133 · draftkings
Noelvi Marte
Noelvi Marte
CINvsCHCBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge+3.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 37 games
+157 · draftkings
Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz
CINvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 73 games
-260 · draftkings
JJ Bleday
JJ Bleday
CINvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.83
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 64 games
-173 · draftkings
Spencer Steer
Spencer Steer
CINvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.77
Edge+0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 87 games
+169 · draftkings
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
CINvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge−0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 92 games
-240 · draftkings
Eugenio Suarez
CHC @ CINBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Tropicana Field20 leansFinal · graded

SEA@TB

Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays

first pitch
7:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Luis Castillo
probable · awayLuis Castillo
SEA
Nick Martinez
probable · homeNick Martinez
TB
Strikeouts
Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez
TBvsSEAPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER4.5
Projection3.63
Edge+9.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 3.6 K across 17 starts
-156 · draftkings
Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo
SEAvsTBPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER4.5
Projection4.24
Edge+2.5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.5 K across 17 starts
-117 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Cole Young
Cole Young
SEAvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.9
Edge+5.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 94 games
-165 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
TBvsSEABatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge+5.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 64 games
-119 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsSEABatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+5.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 90 games
-214 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsSEABatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.18
Edge+4.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 83 games
-275 · draftkings
Hunter Feduccia
Hunter Feduccia
TBvsSEABatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge+2.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.54 across 48 games
+108 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsSEABatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.64
Edge−2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.57 across 28 games
-146 · draftkings
Cedric Mullins
Cedric Mullins
TBvsSEABatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge−2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 78 games
+131 · draftkings
Cal Raleigh
Cal Raleigh
SEAvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.66
Edge−2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 62 games
+122 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsSEABatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge−2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 91 games
+184 · draftkings
Randy Arozarena
Randy Arozarena
SEAvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge−2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 86 games
-271 · draftkings
J.P. Crawford
J.P. Crawford
SEAvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge+2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 76 games
+153 · draftkings
Dominic Canzone
Dominic Canzone
SEAvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge−2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 81 games
+165 · draftkings
Colt Emerson
Colt Emerson
SEAvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge+2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.66 across 44 games
-128 · draftkings
Luke Raley
Luke Raley
SEAvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 78 games
-132 · draftkings
Victor Robles
Victor Robles
SEAvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.62
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 31 games
+130 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor Walls
TBvsSEABatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 69 games
-142 · draftkings
Josh Naylor
Josh Naylor
SEAvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge−0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 87 games
-229 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
SEA @ TBBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
loanDepot park19 leansFinal · graded

CLE@MIA

Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins

first pitch
7:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Parker Messick
probable · awayParker Messick
CLE
Sandy Alcantara
probable · homeSandy Alcantara
MIA
Strikeouts
Sandy Alcantara
Sandy Alcantara
MIAvsCLEPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER5.5
Projection4.93
Edge+9.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.8 K across 19 starts
-117 · draftkings
Parker Messick
Parker Messick
CLEvsMIAPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER5.5
Projection6.03
Edge+8.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.1 K across 18 starts
-107 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez
MIAvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.59
Edge+16.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.38 across 92 games
+169 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsMIABatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.27
Edge+10.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 77 games
-212 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
MIAvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.26
Edge+10.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 82 games
-212 · draftkings
Kyle Manzardo
Kyle Manzardo
CLEvsMIABatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.48
Edge+7.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 84 games
+130 · draftkings
Kyle Stowers
Kyle Stowers
MIAvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+6.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 69 games
-196 · draftkings
Xavier Edwards
Xavier Edwards
MIAvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+6.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.11 across 93 games
-243 · draftkings
Javier Sanoja
Javier Sanoja
MIAvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.09
Edge+4.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 68 games
-203 · draftkings
Gabriel Arias
Gabriel Arias
CLEvsMIABatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.63
Edge−3.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 27 games
+112 · draftkings
Jakob Marsee
Jakob Marsee
MIAvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 90 games
-132 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsMIABatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge−2.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 62 games
+152 · draftkings
Daniel Schneemann
Daniel Schneemann
CLEvsMIABatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge−2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 75 games
-154 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan Rocchio
CLEvsMIABatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge−2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 91 games
-241 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsMIABatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.77
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 85 games
-179 · draftkings
Kahlil Watson
Kahlil Watson
CLEvsMIABatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.6
Edge+1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 20 games
+127 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsMIABatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge−0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.53 across 58 games
+100 · draftkings
Esteury Ruiz
Esteury Ruiz
MIAvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.46
Edge+0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.52 across 44 games
-107 · draftkings
Heriberto Hernandez
CLE @ MIABatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Citi Field20 leansFinal · graded

BOS@NYM

Boston Red Sox at New York Mets

first pitch
7:15 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Sonny Gray
probable · awaySonny Gray
BOS
Nolan McLean
probable · homeNolan McLean
NYM
Strikeouts
Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray
BOSvsNYMPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER5.5
Projection7.26
Edge+16.4%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 9.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.1 K across 16 starts
-130 · draftkings
Nolan McLean
Nolan McLean
NYMvsBOSPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
OVER6.5
Projection6.8
Edge+1.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.6 K across 18 starts
-119 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Carson Benge
Carson Benge
NYMvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.21
Edge+12.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 90 games
-179 · draftkings
Brett Baty
Brett Baty
NYMvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.85
Edge+8.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 88 games
-135 · draftkings
Anthony Seigler
Anthony Seigler
BOSvsNYMBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.85
Edge+8.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 19 games
-137 · draftkings
Romy Gonzalez
Romy Gonzalez
BOSvsNYMBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.12
Edge+8.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.12
  • SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 8 games
-218 · draftkings
Francisco Alvarez
Francisco Alvarez
NYMvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 61 games
-143 · draftkings
Tsung-Che Cheng
Tsung-Che Cheng
BOSvsNYMBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+7.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.86
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 7 games
-142 · draftkings
Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOSvsNYMBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+7.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 85 games
-228 · draftkings
Jorge Polanco
Jorge Polanco
NYMvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge+5.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 16 games
-136 · draftkings
A.J. Ewing
A.J. Ewing
NYMvsBOSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 54 games
-187 · draftkings
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
NYMvsBOSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+3.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 75 games
-214 · draftkings
Bo Bichette
Bo Bichette
NYMvsBOSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 94 games
-229 · draftkings
Jarren Duran
Jarren Duran
BOSvsNYMBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.64
Edge−2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 84 games
+120 · draftkings
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu
BOSvsNYMBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.85
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 89 games
-203 · draftkings
Masataka Yoshida
Masataka Yoshida
BOSvsNYMBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge−1.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 58 games
-221 · draftkings
Francisco Lindor
Francisco Lindor
NYMvsBOSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.82
Edge+1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 36 games
-175 · draftkings
Caleb Durbin
Caleb Durbin
BOSvsNYMBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.73
Edge−0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 82 games
-159 · draftkings
Jared Young
Jared Young
NYMvsBOSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.73
Edge+0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 48 games
-151 · draftkings
Carlos Narvaez
BOS @ NYMBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Rate Field19 leansFinal · graded

ATH@CWS

Athletics at Chicago White Sox

first pitch
7:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Jacob Lopez
probable · awayJacob Lopez
ATH
Sean Burke
probable · homeSean Burke
CWS
Strikeouts
Sean Burke
Sean BurkeModel anomaly
CWSvsATHPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER5.5
Projection7.23
Edge+20.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.9 K across 18 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-135 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Tristan Peters
Tristan Peters
CWSvsATHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+10.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 84 games
-151 · draftkings
Henry Bolte
Henry Bolte
ATHvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.76
Edge+6.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 50 games
-123 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsATHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge+5.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 91 games
+174 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsATHBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 88 games
-161 · draftkings
Carlos Cortes
Carlos Cortes
ATHvsCWSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge+4.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 69 games
-124 · draftkings
Zack Gelof
Zack Gelof
ATHvsCWSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.89
Edge+3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 63 games
-182 · draftkings
Andrew Benintendi
Andrew Benintendi
CWSvsATHBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+2.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 81 games
-176 · draftkings
Lawrence Butler
Lawrence Butler
ATHvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.59
Edge−2.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.57 across 80 games
-132 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsATHBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.75
Edge−2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 26 games
-176 · draftkings
Jacob Wilson
Jacob Wilson
ATHvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge−1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 53 games
-258 · draftkings
Sam Antonacci
Sam Antonacci
CWSvsATHBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 72 games
-222 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase Meidroth
CWSvsATHBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.79
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 90 games
+181 · draftkings
Shea Langeliers
Shea Langeliers
ATHvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.99
Edge−1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 83 games
-256 · draftkings
Tyler Soderstrom
Tyler Soderstrom
ATHvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 82 games
-196 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
Kyle Teel
CWSvsATHBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.62
Edge+0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 14 games
+126 · draftkings
Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz
ATHvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.73
Edge0%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 92 games
+152 · draftkings
Josh Kuroda-Grauer
ATH @ CWSBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Munetaka Murakami
ATH @ CWSBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Globe Life Field0 leans

HOU@TEX

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

first pitch
8:05 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Hunter Brown
probable · awayHunter Brown
HOU
Cal Quantrill
probable · homeCal Quantrill
TEX
prop lines pending
Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.
Target Field0 leans

LAA@MIN

Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins

first pitch
8:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Grayson Rodriguez
probable · awayGrayson Rodriguez
LAA
Zebby Matthews
probable · homeZebby Matthews
MIN
prop lines pending
Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.
Busch Stadium21 leansFinal · graded

ATL@STL

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals

first pitch
8:15 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Chris Sale
probable · awayChris Sale
ATL
Kyle Leahy
probable · homeKyle Leahy
STL
Strikeouts
Chris Sale
Chris Sale
ATLvsSTLPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER5.5
Projection6.82
Edge+13%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 7.0 K across 16 starts
-156 · fanduel
Chris Sale
Chris Sale
ATLvsSTLPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER6.5
Projection6.82
Edge+9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 7.0 K across 16 starts
+112 · draftkings
Kyle Leahy
Kyle Leahy
STLvsATLPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER3.5
Projection4.5
Edge+8.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.3 K across 17 starts
-147 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
STLvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+9.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 90 games
-206 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
ATLvsSTLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.37
Edge+6.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 86 games
+158 · draftkings
Masyn Winn
Masyn Winn
STLvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+5.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 83 games
-183 · draftkings
JJ Wetherholt
JJ Wetherholt
STLvsATLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+3.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 86 games
-226 · draftkings
Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson
STLvsATLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.03
Edge+3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 91 games
-229 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsSTLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 92 games
-245 · draftkings
Dominic Smith
Dominic Smith
ATLvsSTLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.66
Edge+2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 76 games
+149 · draftkings
Nathan Church
Nathan Church
STLvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.64
Edge−2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 71 games
-144 · draftkings
Austin Riley
Austin Riley
ATLvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 92 games
+156 · draftkings
Blaze Jordan
Blaze Jordan
STLvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge−0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 21 games
-141 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
ATLvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge−0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 69 games
-266 · draftkings
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
ATLvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 92 games
-247 · draftkings
Mike Yastrzemski
Mike Yastrzemski
ATLvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge−0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 83 games
-149 · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
ATL @ STLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ivan Herrera
ATL @ STLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
James Jarvis
ATL @ STLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Nelson Velazquez
ATL @ STLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Pedro Pages
ATL @ STLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Petco Park20 leansFinal · graded

TOR@SD

Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres

first pitch
9:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Shane Bieber
probable · awayShane Bieber
TOR
JP Sears
probable · homeJP Sears
SD
Strikeouts
Shane Bieber
Shane BieberModel anomaly
TORvsSDPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
UNDER4.5
Projection3
Edge+27.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 3.0 K across 3 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-122 · draftkings
JP Sears
JP SearsModel anomaly
SDvsTORPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER3.5
Projection4.67
Edge+23.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.7 K across 3 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-112 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Myles Straw
Myles Straw
TORvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.34
Edge+5.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.47 across 68 games
-107 · draftkings
Nathan Lukes
Nathan Lukes
TORvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge+4.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 58 games
-171 · draftkings
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TORvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge+4.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 88 games
+192 · draftkings
Sung-Mun Song
Sung-Mun Song
SDvsTORBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.57
Edge+3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.55 across 31 games
+100 · draftkings
Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
SDvsTORBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+3.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 88 games
+180 · draftkings
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SDvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.75
Edge−2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 90 games
-181 · draftkings
Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto
TORvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.79
Edge−2.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 89 games
-191 · draftkings
Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth
SDvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.79
Edge+2.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.57 across 42 games
-157 · draftkings
Ernie Clement
Ernie Clement
TORvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.02
Edge−2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 90 games
-249 · draftkings
Luis Campusano
Luis Campusano
SDvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 24 games
-141 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.15
Edge+1.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.11 across 92 games
+195 · draftkings
George Springer
George Springer
TORvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 64 games
-193 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SDvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge−1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 89 games
-226 · draftkings
Alejandro Kirk
Alejandro Kirk
TORvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.63
Edge+1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 23 games
+134 · draftkings
Gavin Sheets
Gavin Sheets
SDvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge−0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 86 games
-154 · draftkings
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
TORvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.69
Edge−0.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 75 games
+135 · draftkings
Miguel Andujar
Miguel Andujar
SDvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+0.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 69 games
-192 · draftkings
Luis Urias
TOR @ SDBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium20 leansFinal · graded

AZ@LAD

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

first pitch
10:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Eduardo Rodriguez
probable · awayEduardo Rodriguez
AZ
Shohei Ohtani
probable · homeShohei Ohtani
LAD
Strikeouts
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsAZPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER6.5
Projection7.09
Edge+13.8%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.8 K across 14 starts
+111 · draftkings
Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez
AZvsLADPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER4.5
Projection3.5
Edge+11.3%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.1 K across 18 starts
-164 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Nolan Arenado
Nolan Arenado
AZvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge+14.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 87 games
-120 · draftkings
Gabriel Moreno
Gabriel Moreno
AZvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+13.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 66 games
-170 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsAZBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.26
Edge+8.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 91 games
-265 · draftkings
Dalton Rushing
Dalton Rushing
LADvsAZBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+7.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 57 games
-159 · draftkings
Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte
AZvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+5.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 89 games
-213 · draftkings
James McCann
James McCann
AZvsLADBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge+4.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 21 games
+106 · draftkings
Tommy Troy
Tommy Troy
AZvsLADBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge+3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 36 games
-122 · draftkings
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LADvsAZBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.89
Edge+2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 86 games
-168 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
LADvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge−3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 92 games
+177 · draftkings
Pavin Smith
Pavin Smith
AZvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.35
Edge+2.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.39 across 28 games
-121 · draftkings
Miguel Rojas
Miguel Rojas
LADvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 60 games
-140 · draftkings
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
AZvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge−1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 90 games
+126 · draftkings
Geraldo Perdomo
Geraldo Perdomo
AZvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge+1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 89 games
-199 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 88 games
-227 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.11 across 85 games
-250 · draftkings
Max Kepler
Max Kepler
AZvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.57
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.55 across 11 games
+118 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge−0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 57 games
-238 · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
AZ @ LADBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Oracle Park20 leansFinal · graded

COL@SF

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

first pitch
10:15 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Tanner Gordon
probable · awayTanner Gordon
COL
Robbie Ray
probable · homeRobbie Ray
SF
Strikeouts
Robbie Ray
Robbie Ray
SFvsCOLPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER5.5
Projection4.35
Edge+13.2%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.8 K across 18 starts
-140 · draftkings
Tanner Gordon
Tanner Gordon
COLvsSFPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER3.5
Projection4.27
Edge+9.8%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.2 K across 11 starts
-142 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Cole Carrigg
Cole Carrigg
COLvsSFBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.1
Edge+10.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 27 games
-187 · draftkings
Victor Bericoto
Victor Bericoto
SFvsCOLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+10.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 21 games
-162 · draftkings
TJ Rumfield
TJ Rumfield
COLvsSFBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+8.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 92 games
-193 · draftkings
Troy Johnston
Troy Johnston
COLvsSFBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.79
Edge+7.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 84 games
-123 · draftkings
Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez
SFvsCOLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.35
Edge+6.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.30 across 88 games
+167 · draftkings
Bryce Eldridge
Bryce Eldridge
SFvsCOLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+6.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 51 games
-175 · draftkings
Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers
SFvsCOLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge+4.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 93 games
-219 · draftkings
Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy
COLvsSFBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.03
Edge+3.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 76 games
-214 · draftkings
Ezequiel Tovar
Ezequiel Tovar
COLvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge−2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 87 games
-138 · draftkings
Drew Cavanaugh
Drew Cavanaugh
SFvsCOLBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.6
Edge−2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 10 games
+108 · draftkings
Heliot Ramos
Heliot Ramos
SFvsCOLBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.18
Edge−2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 55 games
-204 · draftkings
Hunter Goodman
Hunter Goodman
COLvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 87 games
-194 · draftkings
Casey Schmitt
Casey Schmitt
SFvsCOLBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection0.96
Edge−1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 84 games
-254 · draftkings
Kyle Karros
Kyle Karros
COLvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.89
Edge+1.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 88 games
-195 · draftkings
Willi Castro
Willi Castro
COLvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.77
Edge+1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 79 games
+171 · draftkings
Jung Hoo Lee
Jung Hoo Lee
SFvsCOLBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection0.93
Edge+1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.16 across 85 games
-210 · draftkings
Willy Adames
Willy Adames
SFvsCOLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.9
Edge−1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 88 games
-212 · draftkings
Tyler Freeman
Tyler Freeman
COLvsSFBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 62 games
-188 · draftkings
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