48.8%

59–62 on 121 decisive

Combined audit across the sports that had settled rows on 2026-07-07. Pushes excluded. Pending games never count as losses.

At a glance

Hit

model agreed and the line cleared

Miss

model agreed but the line did not clear

Push

final stat tied the line — excluded from hit rate

Pending

no games still pending on this date

MLB

48.8%

59–62 on 121

Full MLB audit →

Biggest hits

MLBKody ClemensOver 1.5 Total Bases+22.4pp edgeactual 4
MLBRomy GonzalezOver 1.5 Total Bases+21.9pp edgeactual 2
MLBWillson ContrerasOver 1.5 Total Bases+19.3pp edgeactual 3
MLBHenry BolteOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+18.2pp edgeactual 4
MLBJoey CantilloOver 4.5 Strikeouts+18.1pp edgeactual 7

Biggest misses

MLBRiley GreeneOver 1.5 Total Bases+22.0pp edgeactual 0
MLBIan SeymourUnder 5.5 Strikeouts+15.7pp edgeactual 12
MLBShane BazOver 5.5 Strikeouts+12.6pp edgeactual 3
MLBRiley GreeneOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+12.2pp edgeactual 0
MLBTatsuya ImaiOver 4.5 Strikeouts+11.4pp edgeactual 3

MLB settled games · projection vs actual

CHC @ BAL

17–1330 dec56.7%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Matthew Boyd	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	4.40	7	+6.2%	High	Loss
Shane Baz	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	5.97	3	+12.6%	High	Loss
Gunnar Henderson	Hits	Under 1.5	0.81	1	+4.8%	Medium	Win
Alex Bregman	Hits	Under 0.5	0.87	2	-0.4%	Low	Loss
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Hits	Over 0.5	1.09	2	+0.0%	Low	Win
Nico Hoerner	Hits	Over 0.5	0.93	1	-3.2%	Low	Win
Adley Rutschman	Hits	Under 0.5	0.82	2	+2.8%	Medium	Loss
Michael Busch	Hits	Under 0.5	0.78	0	+1.5%	Low	Win
Seiya Suzuki	Hits	Over 0.5	1.04	0	+2.4%	Low	Loss
Taylor Ward	Hits	Over 0.5	0.98	0	-0.1%	Low	Loss
Pete Alonso	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	1	+4.2%	Medium	Win
Carson Kelly	Hits	Over 0.5	0.90	—	+2.6%	Medium	Void
Ian Happ	Hits	Under 0.5	0.66	0	+0.9%	Low	Win
Leody Taveras	Hits	Under 0.5	0.64	0	+1.8%	Low	Win
Blaze Alexander	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	1	+5.3%	High	Win
Jackson Holliday	Hits	Under 0.5	0.41	0	+9.0%	High	Win
Coby Mayo	Hits	Under 0.5	0.56	0	+0.5%	Low	Win
Dansby Swanson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.80	2	+3.6%	Medium	Win
Tyler O'Neill	Hits	Under 0.5	0.55	0	-0.9%	Low	Win
Michael Conforto	Hits	Over 0.5	0.78	1	+4.9%	Medium	Win
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.93	2	+7.4%	High	Win
Gunnar Henderson	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.29	1	-3.1%	Low	Win
Michael Busch	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.41	0	-0.8%	Low	Loss
Alex Bregman	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.38	3	+0.4%	Low	Win
Adley Rutschman	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.34	2	+1.4%	Low	Win
Taylor Ward	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.27	0	-1.7%	Low	Loss
Seiya Suzuki	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.94	0	+14.1%	High	Loss
Ian Happ	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.28	0	+0.8%	Low	Loss
Nico Hoerner	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.18	1	-2.3%	Low	Loss
Pete Alonso	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.67	1	+10.8%	High	Loss
Matthew Boyd	Strikeouts	Under 5.5	4.40	7	+5.6%	High	Loss

ATH @ DET

15–2237 dec40.5%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Tarik Skubal	Strikeouts	Under 8.5	7.83	9	+6.3%	High	Loss
Kevin McGonigle	Hits	Over 0.5	1.08	2	+2.6%	Medium	Win
Riley Greene	Hits	Over 0.5	1.18	0	+7.1%	High	Loss
Shea Langeliers	Hits	Over 0.5	0.94	1	-1.2%	Low	Win
Dillon Dingler	Hits	Over 0.5	1.00	0	+0.9%	Low	Loss
Nick Kurtz	Hits	Over 0.5	0.90	0	+1.7%	Low	Loss
Kerry Carpenter	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	0	+0.3%	Low	Loss
Colt Keith	Hits	Under 0.5	0.67	1	-1.8%	Low	Loss
Jonah Heim	Hits	Over 0.5	0.83	1	+2.1%	Low	Win
Zack Gelof	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	1	+14.2%	High	Win
Zach McKinstry	Hits	Over 0.5	0.81	2	+2.4%	Low	Win
Spencer Torkelson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.76	1	+2.7%	Medium	Win
Henry Bolte	Hits	Over 0.5	0.99	1	+13.2%	High	Win
James Outman	Hits	Under 0.5	0.45	0	-0.3%	Low	Win
Hao-Yu Lee	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	0	+12.1%	High	Loss
Colby Thomas	Hits	Over 0.5	0.57	0	-0.2%	Low	Loss
Alika Williams	Hits	Over 0.5	0.89	—	+17.9%	High	Void
Kevin McGonigle	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.13	4	+5.9%	High	Win
Riley Greene	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.49	0	+12.2%	High	Loss
Dillon Dingler	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.14	0	+5.5%	High	Loss
Shea Langeliers	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.84	2	+3.4%	Medium	Win
Kerry Carpenter	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.99	0	+8.7%	High	Loss
Nick Kurtz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.11	0	+11.0%	High	Loss
Colt Keith	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.34	4	-0.9%	Low	Win
Spencer Torkelson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.77	2	+9.3%	High	Win
Zach McKinstry	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.57	3	+5.3%	High	Win
Jonah Heim	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.26	1	+18.5%	High	Loss
Zack Gelof	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.42	1	+25.0%	Low	Loss
Henry Bolte	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.76	4	+18.2%	High	Win
James Outman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.28	0	+5.0%	High	Loss
Hao-Yu Lee	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.52	0	+13.6%	High	Loss
Colby Thomas	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.32	0	+14.2%	High	Loss
Alika Williams	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.74	—	+23.6%	Low	Void
Kevin McGonigle	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.49	2	+3.9%	Medium	Win
Riley Greene	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.32	0	+22.0%	Low	Loss
Shea Langeliers	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.57	1	+6.0%	High	Loss
Dillon Dingler	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.83	0	+11.4%	High	Loss
Kerry Carpenter	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.69	0	+10.9%	High	Loss
Nick Kurtz	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.48	0	+6.9%	High	Loss

ATL @ PIT

1–01 dec100.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Paul Skenes	Strikeouts	Under 6.5	6.64	4	-1.3%	Low	Win

NYY @ TB

0–22 dec0.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Will Warren	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	5.16	3	+4.7%	Medium	Loss
Ian Seymour	Strikeouts	Under 5.5	4.35	12	+15.7%	High	Loss

HOU @ WSH

0–22 dec0.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Andrew Alvarez	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	5.08	3	+12.1%	High	Loss
Tatsuya Imai	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	6.47	3	+11.4%	High	Loss

BOS @ CWS

12–1224 dec50.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Payton Tolle	Strikeouts	Under 5.5	5.13	6	+7.5%	High	Loss
Noah Schultz	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	4.57	3	+1.6%	Low	Win
Miguel Vargas	Hits	Over 0.5	1.00	0	+1.4%	Low	Loss
Ceddanne Rafaela	Hits	Over 0.5	1.09	2	+6.0%	High	Win
Willson Contreras	Hits	Over 0.5	1.06	2	+4.3%	Medium	Win
Caleb Durbin	Hits	Under 0.5	0.82	0	-3.1%	Low	Win
Romy Gonzalez	Hits	Over 0.5	1.20	1	+8.8%	High	Win
Wilyer Abreu	Hits	Under 0.5	0.81	0	-3.2%	Low	Win
Colson Montgomery	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	0	+4.2%	Medium	Loss
Chase Meidroth	Hits	Over 0.5	1.00	0	+6.5%	High	Loss
Anthony Seigler	Hits	Over 0.5	1.10	1	+10.6%	High	Win
Randal Grichuk	Hits	Under 0.5	0.61	0	+3.4%	Medium	Win
Jarren Duran	Hits	Under 0.5	0.64	2	-2.8%	Low	Loss
Braden Montgomery	Hits	Over 0.5	0.82	—	+6.2%	High	Void
Tristan Peters	Hits	Over 0.5	1.08	0	+18.7%	High	Loss
Andruw Monasterio	Hits	Under 0.5	0.51	2	-1.7%	Low	Loss
Drew Romo	Hits	Under 0.5	0.32	—	+6.9%	High	Void
Connor Wong	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	1	+14.0%	High	Win
Junior Perez	Hits	Under 0.5	0.44	1	+0.2%	Low	Loss
Miguel Vargas	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.15	0	+13.0%	High	Loss
Willson Contreras	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.23	3	+19.3%	High	Win
Randal Grichuk	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.34	0	+2.2%	Low	Loss
Colson Montgomery	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.07	0	+17.6%	High	Loss
Ceddanne Rafaela	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.48	5	+6.8%	High	Win
Romy Gonzalez	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.20	2	+21.9%	Low	Win
Wilyer Abreu	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.32	0	+4.3%	Medium	Loss

CLE @ MIN

13–922 dec59.1%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Taj Bradley	Strikeouts	Over 6.5	6.90	10	+10.6%	High	Win
Joey Cantillo	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	6.26	7	+18.1%	High	Win
Chase DeLauter	Hits	Over 0.5	1.26	2	+7.0%	High	Win
Travis Bazzana	Hits	Under 0.5	0.82	0	-1.7%	Low	Win
Brayan Rocchio	Hits	Over 0.5	1.01	0	+2.5%	Low	Loss
Austin Martin	Hits	Under 0.5	0.73	1	-0.7%	Low	Loss
Kody Clemens	Hits	Over 0.5	0.95	2	+4.1%	Medium	Win
Brooks Lee	Hits	Over 0.5	1.12	1	+10.8%	High	Win
Josh Bell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.90	2	+4.5%	Medium	Win
Royce Lewis	Hits	Over 0.5	0.94	0	+7.6%	High	Loss
Steven Kwan	Hits	Over 0.5	0.83	0	+3.1%	Medium	Loss
Victor Caratini	Hits	Over 0.5	0.78	1	+2.1%	Low	Win
Kahlil Watson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	0	+6.4%	High	Loss
Kyle Manzardo	Hits	Under 0.5	0.60	0	-1.9%	Low	Win
Luke Keaschall	Hits	Over 0.5	0.78	2	+4.1%	Medium	Win
Gabriel Arias	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	0	+0.6%	Low	Loss
Cooper Ingle	Hits	Under 0.5	0.29	—	+10.3%	High	Void
Ryan Kreidler	Hits	Over 0.5	0.69	1	+4.5%	Medium	Win
Patrick Bailey	Hits	Over 0.5	0.62	0	+1.9%	Low	Loss
Chase DeLauter	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.88	3	+12.1%	High	Win
Travis Bazzana	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.22	0	+1.4%	Low	Loss
Kody Clemens	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.20	4	+22.4%	Low	Win
Brayan Rocchio	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.41	0	+7.3%	High	Loss

LAA @ TEX

0–11 dec0.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Jacob deGrom	Strikeouts	Over 7.5	7.81	7	+4.6%	Medium	Loss

COL @ LAD

1–12 dec50.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Justin Wrobleski	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	5.40	9	-0.4%	Low	Win
Michael Lorenzen	Strikeouts	Under 3.5	2.87	5	+17.0%	High	Loss

all settled dates