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MLB model board · 2026-07-07

16 MLB games · 111 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDJul 7, 10:07 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
43
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
20
model vs market · context
Small gap
36
3 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
9
no projection emitted
Strikeouts11 gap ≥ 5 pp·21 totalHits20 gap ≥ 5 pp·72 totalHits + Runs + RBIs12 gap ≥ 5 pp·18 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Henry Bolte
Henry BolteATH vs DET
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+18.2%
proj 1.76-172 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauterCLE vs MIN
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+7%
proj 1.26-246 · draftkings
Riley Greene
Riley GreeneDET vs ATH
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+7.1%
proj 1.18-235 · draftkings
Zack Gelof
Zack GelofATH vs DET
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+14.2%
proj 1.11-164 · draftkings
Joey Cantillo
Joey CantilloCLE vs MIN
Gap ≥ 5 pp
StrikeoutsOver 4.5+18.1%
proj 6.26-143 · draftkings
Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar HendersonBAL vs CHC
Gap 2.5–5 pp
HitsUnder 1.5+4.8%
proj 0.81-247 · draftkings
Kevin McGonigle
Kevin McGonigleDET vs ATH
Gap 2.5–5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+2.6%
proj 1.08-266 · draftkings
Brooks Lee
Brooks LeeMIN vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+10.8%
proj 1.12-181 · draftkings
Filters · 111 of 111 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Busch Stadium0 leans

MIL@STL

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

first pitch
2:15 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Jacob Misiorowski
probable · awayJacob Misiorowski
MIL
probable · homeTBD
STL
prop lines pending
Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.
Busch Stadium1 lean

MIL@STL

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

first pitch
7:45 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
probable · awayTBD
MIL
probable · homeTBD
STL
Strikeouts
Jacob Misiorowski
Jacob MisiorowskiModel anomaly
MILvsSTLPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER7.5
Projection8.71
Edge+23.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 9.2 K across 17 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+114 · fanduel
Oriole Park at Camden Yards21 leansFinal · graded

CHC@BAL

Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles

first pitch
6:35 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Matthew Boyd
probable · awayMatthew Boyd
CHC
Shane Baz
probable · homeShane Baz
BAL
Strikeouts
Shane Baz
Shane Baz
BALvsCHCPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER5.5
Projection5.97
Edge+12.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.1 K across 17 starts
+112 · draftkings
Matthew Boyd
Matthew Boyd
CHCvsBALPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER4.5
Projection4.4
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.3 K across 7 starts
+120 · fanduel
Matthew Boyd
Matthew Boyd
CHCvsBALPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER5.5
Projection4.4
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.3 K across 7 starts
-165 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Jackson Holliday
Jackson Holliday
BALvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.41
Edge+9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.51 across 39 games
+121 · draftkings
Blaze Alexander
Blaze Alexander
BALvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+5.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 67 games
-166 · draftkings
Michael Conforto
Michael Conforto
CHCvsBALBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge+4.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.55 across 58 games
-138 · draftkings
Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson
BALvsCHCBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.81
Edge+4.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 90 games
-247 · draftkings
Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso
BALvsCHCBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+4.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 91 games
-199 · draftkings
Dansby Swanson
Dansby Swanson
CHCvsBALBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.8
Edge+3.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 85 games
-151 · draftkings
Adley Rutschman
Adley Rutschman
BALvsCHCBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.82
Edge+2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 60 games
+192 · draftkings
Carson Kelly
Carson Kelly
CHCvsBALBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.9
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 63 games
-190 · draftkings
Nico Hoerner
Nico Hoerner
CHCvsBALBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge−3.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 88 games
-264 · draftkings
Seiya Suzuki
Seiya Suzuki
CHCvsBALBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 74 games
-226 · draftkings
Leody Taveras
Leody Taveras
BALvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.64
Edge+1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 75 games
+140 · draftkings
Michael Busch
Michael Busch
CHCvsBALBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge+1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 89 games
+181 · draftkings
Tyler O'Neill
Tyler O'Neill
BALvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.55
Edge−0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.51 across 51 games
+106 · draftkings
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
CHCvsBALBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.66
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 85 games
+140 · draftkings
Coby Mayo
Coby Mayo
BALvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge+0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 66 games
+114 · draftkings
Alex Bregman
Alex Bregman
CHCvsBALBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge−0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 88 games
+198 · draftkings
Taylor Ward
Taylor Ward
BALvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge−0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 90 games
-220 · draftkings
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHCvsBALBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.09
Edge0%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 90 games
-268 · draftkings
Comerica Park39 leansFinal · graded

ATH@DET

Athletics at Detroit Tigers

first pitch
6:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
J.T. Ginn
probable · awayJ.T. Ginn
ATH
Tarik Skubal
probable · homeTarik Skubal
DET
Strikeouts
Tarik Skubal
Tarik Skubal
DETvsATHPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER8.5
Projection7.83
Edge+6.3%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.8 K across 11 starts
-129 · draftkings
JT Ginn
ATH @ DETPitcherStrikeouts
Sample too small
Line4.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · fanduel
JT Ginn
ATH @ DETPitcherStrikeouts
Sample too small
Line5.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Jonah Heim
Jonah Heim
ATHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.26
Edge+18.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.83 across 46 games
+123 · draftkings
Henry Bolte
Henry Bolte
ATHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.76
Edge+18.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.62 across 47 games
-172 · draftkings
Alika Williams
Alika Williams
ATHvsDETBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.89
Edge+17.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 25 games
+101 · draftkings
Zack Gelof
Zack Gelof
ATHvsDETBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+14.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 60 games
-164 · draftkings
Colby Thomas
Colby Thomas
ATHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.32
Edge+14.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 37 games
-136 · draftkings
Hao-Yu Lee
Hao-Yu Lee
DETvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.52
Edge+13.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 49 games
-159 · draftkings
Henry Bolte
Henry Bolte
ATHvsDETBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.99
Edge+13.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 47 games
-140 · draftkings
Riley Greene
Riley Greene
DETvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.49
Edge+12.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
  • SeasonSeason average 2.08 across 89 games
-132 · draftkings
Hao-Yu Lee
Hao-Yu Lee
DETvsATHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+12.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 49 games
-119 · draftkings
Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz
ATHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.11
Edge+11%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.43 across 89 games
+103 · draftkings
Spencer Torkelson
Spencer Torkelson
DETvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.77
Edge+9.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.54 across 89 games
+111 · draftkings
Kerry Carpenter
Kerry Carpenter
DETvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.99
Edge+8.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 67 games
-110 · draftkings
Riley Greene
Riley Greene
DETvsATHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.18
Edge+7.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 89 games
-235 · draftkings
Kevin McGonigle
Kevin McGonigle
DETvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.13
Edge+5.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.06 across 87 games
-143 · draftkings
Dillon Dingler
Dillon Dingler
DETvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.14
Edge+5.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 83 games
-121 · draftkings
Zach McKinstry
Zach McKinstry
DETvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.57
Edge+5.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 63 games
+114 · draftkings
James Outman
James Outman
DETvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.28
Edge+5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 45 games
-170 · draftkings
Shea Langeliers
Shea Langeliers
ATHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.84
Edge+3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.27 across 80 games
-113 · draftkings
Spencer Torkelson
Spencer Torkelson
DETvsATHBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.76
Edge+2.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 89 games
-146 · draftkings
Kevin McGonigle
Kevin McGonigle
DETvsATHBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 87 games
-266 · draftkings
Zack Gelof
Zack GelofModel anomaly
ATHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.42
Edge+25%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 60 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+125 · draftkings
Alika Williams
Alika WilliamsModel anomaly
ATHvsDETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.74
Edge+23.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.68 across 25 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-122 · draftkings
Zach McKinstry
Zach McKinstry
DETvsATHBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge+2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 63 games
-162 · draftkings
Jonah Heim
Jonah Heim
ATHvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.83
Edge+2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 46 games
-170 · draftkings
Colt Keith
Colt Keith
DETvsATHBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge−1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 81 games
+128 · draftkings
Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz
ATHvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.9
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 89 games
-194 · draftkings
Shea Langeliers
Shea Langeliers
ATHvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge−1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 80 games
-233 · draftkings
Dillon Dingler
Dillon Dingler
DETvsATHBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 83 games
-202 · draftkings
Colt Keith
Colt Keith
DETvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.34
Edge−0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.38 across 81 games
+111 · draftkings
Kerry Carpenter
Kerry Carpenter
DETvsATHBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 67 games
-188 · draftkings
James Outman
James Outman
DETvsATHBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.45
Edge−0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.40 across 45 games
-111 · draftkings
Colby Thomas
Colby Thomas
ATHvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.57
Edge−0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.54 across 37 games
-115 · draftkings
Josh Kuroda-Grauer
ATH @ DETBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Max Muncy (2002)
ATH @ DETBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Josh Kuroda-Grauer
ATH @ DETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Max Muncy (2002)
ATH @ DETBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
PNC Park2 leansFinal · graded

ATL@PIT

Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates

first pitch
6:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Hurston Waldrep
probable · awayHurston Waldrep
ATL
Paul Skenes
probable · homePaul Skenes
PIT
Strikeouts
Paul Skenes
Paul Skenes
PITvsATLPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
UNDER6.5
Projection6.64
Edge−1.3%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.6 K across 18 starts
+104 · fanduel
Hurston Waldrep
Hurston Waldrep
ATLvsPITPitcherStrikeouts
Sample too small
Line4.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (2 games of log data)
— · fanduel
loanDepot park0 leans

SEA@MIA

Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins

first pitch
6:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
probable · awayTBD
SEA
Max Meyer
probable · homeMax Meyer
MIA
prop lines pending
Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.
Tropicana Field2 leansFinal · graded

NYY@TB

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

first pitch
6:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Will Warren
probable · awayWill Warren
NYY
Ian Seymour
probable · homeIan Seymour
TB
Strikeouts
Ian Seymour
Ian Seymour
TBvsNYYPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER5.5
Projection4.35
Edge+15.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 1.9 K across 31 starts
-136 · fanduel
Will Warren
Will Warren
NYYvsTBPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection5.16
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.3 K across 17 starts
-122 · fanduel
Nationals Park2 leansFinal · graded

HOU@WSH

Houston Astros at Washington Nationals

first pitch
6:45 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Tatsuya Imai
probable · awayTatsuya Imai
HOU
Andrew Alvarez
probable · homeAndrew Alvarez
WSH
Strikeouts
Andrew Alvarez
Andrew Alvarez
WSHvsHOUPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection5.08
Edge+12.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.4 K across 11 starts
-106 · fanduel
Tatsuya Imai
Tatsuya Imai
HOUvsWSHPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection6.47
Edge+11.4%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.0 K across 12 starts
-148 · fanduel
Citi Field0 leans

KC@NYM

Kansas City Royals at New York Mets

first pitch
7:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Seth Lugo
probable · awaySeth Lugo
KC
probable · homeTBD
NYM
prop lines pending
Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.
Great American Ball Park0 leans

PHI@CIN

Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds

first pitch
7:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
probable · awayTBD
PHI
Andrew Abbott
probable · homeAndrew Abbott
CIN
prop lines pending
Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.
Target Field20 leansFinal · graded

CLE@MIN

Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins

first pitch
7:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Joey Cantillo
probable · awayJoey Cantillo
CLE
Taj Bradley
probable · homeTaj Bradley
MIN
Strikeouts
Joey Cantillo
Joey Cantillo
CLEvsMINPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection6.26
Edge+18.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.9 K across 18 starts
-143 · draftkings
Taj Bradley
Taj Bradley
MINvsCLEPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER6.5
Projection6.9
Edge+10.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.4 K across 16 starts
+117 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Brooks Lee
Brooks Lee
MINvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.12
Edge+10.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 85 games
-181 · draftkings
Cooper Ingle
Cooper Ingle
CLEvsMINBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.29
Edge+10.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.29
  • SeasonSeason average 0.29 across 7 games
+102 · draftkings
Royce Lewis
Royce Lewis
MINvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+7.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 57 games
-164 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsMINBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.26
Edge+7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 74 games
-246 · draftkings
Kahlil Watson
Kahlil Watson
CLEvsMINBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+6.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 17 games
-150 · draftkings
Ryan Kreidler
Ryan Kreidler
MINvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.69
Edge+4.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 44 games
-119 · draftkings
Josh Bell
Josh Bell
MINvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.9
Edge+4.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 88 games
-175 · draftkings
Kody Clemens
Kody Clemens
MINvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+4.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 76 games
-195 · draftkings
Luke Keaschall
Luke Keaschall
MINvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge+4.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 85 games
-143 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsMINBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.83
Edge+3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 82 games
-163 · draftkings
Byron Buxton
Byron Buxton
MINvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+2.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.11 across 75 games
-220 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan Rocchio
CLEvsMINBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 88 games
-210 · draftkings
Victor Caratini
Victor Caratini
MINvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge+2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 66 games
-155 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsMINBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.62
Edge+1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.54 across 56 games
-116 · draftkings
Kyle Manzardo
Kyle Manzardo
CLEvsMINBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.6
Edge−1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 81 games
+112 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsMINBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.82
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 59 games
+158 · draftkings
Austin Martin
Austin Martin
MINvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.73
Edge−0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 73 games
+150 · draftkings
Gabriel Arias
Gabriel Arias
CLEvsMINBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 24 games
-142 · draftkings
Rate Field20 leansFinal · graded

BOS@CWS

Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox

first pitch
7:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Payton Tolle
probable · awayPayton Tolle
BOS
Noah Schultz
probable · homeNoah Schultz
CWS
Strikeouts
Payton Tolle
Payton Tolle
BOSvsCWSPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER5.5
Projection5.13
Edge+7.5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.7 K across 13 starts
+107 · draftkings
Noah Schultz
Noah Schultz
CWSvsBOSPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
UNDER4.5
Projection4.57
Edge+1.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.4 K across 9 starts
+112 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Tristan Peters
Tristan Peters
CWSvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+18.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 81 games
-129 · draftkings
Connor Wong
Connor Wong
BOSvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+14%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 35 games
-120 · draftkings
Anthony Seigler
Anthony Seigler
BOSvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.1
Edge+10.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 16 games
-189 · draftkings
Romy Gonzalez
Romy Gonzalez
BOSvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.2
Edge+8.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 5 games
-207 · draftkings
Drew Romo
Drew Romo
CWSvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.32
Edge+6.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.44 across 32 games
-106 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase Meidroth
CWSvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+6.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 87 games
-191 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.82
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 24 games
-141 · draftkings
Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOSvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.09
Edge+6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 82 games
-219 · draftkings
Willson Contreras
Willson Contreras
BOSvsCWSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.06
Edge+4.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 85 games
-218 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsBOSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+4.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 85 games
-201 · draftkings
Randal Grichuk
Randal Grichuk
CWSvsBOSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge+3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 54 games
+141 · draftkings
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu
BOSvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge−3.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 86 games
+152 · draftkings
Caleb Durbin
Caleb Durbin
BOSvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.82
Edge−3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 79 games
+160 · draftkings
Jarren Duran
Jarren Duran
BOSvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.64
Edge−2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 81 games
+116 · draftkings
Andruw Monasterio
Andruw Monasterio
BOSvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.51
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 50 games
-105 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsBOSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 88 games
-242 · draftkings
Junior Perez
Junior Perez
CWSvsBOSBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.44
Edge+0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.44
  • SeasonSeason average 0.44 across 9 games
-111 · draftkings
Luisangel Acuna
BOS @ CWSBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Globe Life Field2 leansFinal · graded

LAA@TEX

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

first pitch
8:05 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
José Soriano
probable · awayJosé Soriano
LAA
Jacob deGrom
probable · homeJacob deGrom
TEX
Strikeouts
Jacob deGrom
Jacob deGrom
TEXvsLAAPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER7.5
Projection7.81
Edge+4.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.8 K across 17 starts
-104 · fanduel
Jose Soriano
LAA @ TEXPitcherStrikeouts
Sample too small
Line5.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · fanduel
Petco Park0 leans

AZ@SD

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

first pitch
9:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Zac Gallen
probable · awayZac Gallen
AZ
Germán Márquez
probable · homeGermán Márquez
SD
prop lines pending
Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.
Oracle Park0 leans

TOR@SF

Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants

first pitch
9:45 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
probable · awayTBD
TOR
Trevor McDonald
probable · homeTrevor McDonald
SF
prop lines pending
Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium2 leansFinal · graded

COL@LAD

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers

first pitch
10:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Michael Lorenzen
probable · awayMichael Lorenzen
COL
Justin Wrobleski
probable · homeJustin Wrobleski
LAD
Strikeouts
Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen
COLvsLADPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER3.5
Projection2.87
Edge+17%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 2.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 3.5 K across 19 starts
+114 · fanduel
Justin Wrobleski
Justin Wrobleski
LADvsCOLPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
OVER5.5
Projection5.4
Edge−0.4%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.3 K across 15 starts
+104 · fanduel
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