48.7%

92–97 on 189 decisive

Combined audit across the sports that had settled rows on 2026-09-07. Pushes excluded. Pending games never count as losses.

At a glance

Hit

model agreed and the line cleared

Miss

model agreed but the line did not clear

Push

final stat tied the line — excluded from hit rate

Pending

no games still pending on this date

MLB

48.7%

92–97 on 189

Full MLB audit →

Biggest hits

MLBChase BurnsOver 4.5 Strikeouts+28.7pp edgeactual 5
MLBThomas SaggeseOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+26.0pp edgeactual 2
MLBRafael DeversOver 1.5 Total Bases+25.1pp edgeactual 4
MLBElly De La CruzOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+24.6pp edgeactual 4
MLBElly De La CruzOver 1.5 Total Bases+24.1pp edgeactual 5

Biggest misses

MLBNick PivettaOver 4.5 Strikeouts+27.4pp edgeactual 2
MLBJacob LopezOver 4.5 Strikeouts+25.2pp edgeactual 1
MLBDaylen LileOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+21.9pp edgeactual 0
MLBLogan WebbUnder 5.5 Strikeouts+20.6pp edgeactual 8
MLBLogan WebbUnder 4.5 Strikeouts+20.1pp edgeactual 8

MLB settled games · projection vs actual

MIN @ DET

24–2145 dec53.3%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Joe Ryan	Strikeouts	Over 3.5	4.53	7	+17.1%	High	Win
Troy Melton	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	4.24	3	-0.6%	Low	Loss
Kevin McGonigle	Hits	Under 0.5	0.82	1	+0.6%	Low	Loss
Luke Keaschall	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	1	+4.0%	Medium	Win
Brooks Lee	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	1	+3.5%	Medium	Win
Dillon Dingler	Hits	Under 0.5	0.77	0	+2.1%	Low	Win
Kody Clemens	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	1	-3.0%	Low	Win
Riley Greene	Hits	Over 0.5	1.00	3	+2.4%	Low	Win
Josh Bell	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	0	+6.7%	High	Loss
Gleyber Torres	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	1	+7.5%	High	Win
Ryan Jeffers	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	0	+0.5%	Low	Loss
Max Clark	Hits	Over 0.5	0.90	1	+4.4%	Medium	Win
Zach McKinstry	Hits	Under 0.5	0.47	1	+6.2%	High	Loss
Royce Lewis	Hits	Over 0.5	0.89	0	+8.2%	High	Loss
Kaelen Culpepper	Hits	Over 0.5	0.99	2	+10.7%	High	Win
Colt Keith	Hits	Under 0.5	0.51	0	+1.7%	Low	Win
Spencer Torkelson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.72	0	+1.5%	Low	Loss
John Peck	Hits	Over 0.5	0.80	1	+4.0%	Medium	Win
Walker Jenkins	Hits	Under 0.5	0.38	1	+6.6%	High	Loss
Trevor Larnach	Hits	Over 0.5	0.81	2	+5.8%	High	Win
Kevin McGonigle	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.65	3	-1.7%	Low	Win
Luke Keaschall	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.15	2	+12.4%	High	Win
Riley Greene	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.34	6	+12.1%	High	Win
Brooks Lee	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.35	1	+13.6%	High	Loss
Dillon Dingler	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.43	0	-2.8%	Low	Win
Kody Clemens	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.99	1	+7.8%	High	Loss
Josh Bell	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.14	0	+11.2%	High	Loss
Gleyber Torres	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.03	2	+9.9%	High	Win
Ryan Jeffers	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.40	1	+15.9%	High	Loss
Max Clark	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.71	2	+8.8%	High	Win
Spencer Torkelson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.41	0	+4.3%	Medium	Loss
Royce Lewis	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.79	0	+13.3%	High	Loss
Zach McKinstry	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	0.80	2	+6.2%	High	Loss
Colt Keith	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	0.87	1	-0.2%	Low	Win
Kaelen Culpepper	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.07	3	+18.4%	High	Win
Walker Jenkins	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.25	3	+3.3%	Medium	Win
John Peck	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.60	1	+5.5%	High	Win
Trevor Larnach	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.64	5	+9.4%	High	Win
Kevin McGonigle	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.14	4	-2.3%	Low	Loss
Kody Clemens	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.71	1	+8.8%	High	Loss
Brooks Lee	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.93	1	+14.6%	High	Loss
Riley Greene	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.90	6	+13.8%	High	Win
Dillon Dingler	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.23	0	+1.4%	Low	Loss
Luke Keaschall	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.57	1	+9.5%	High	Loss
Josh Bell	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.58	0	+9.4%	High	Loss

WSH @ SD

13–2538 dec34.2%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Nick Pivetta	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	6.37	2	+27.4%	Low	Loss
Jake Irvin	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	4.92	3	+14.4%	High	Loss
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Hits	Under 1.5	0.95	3	+1.5%	Low	Loss
Ty France	Hits	Over 0.5	1.04	0	-0.0%	Low	Loss
Manny Machado	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	2	-1.4%	Low	Win
Jackson Merrill	Hits	Under 0.5	0.91	3	-2.7%	Low	Loss
Jake Cronenworth	Hits	Under 0.5	0.52	0	+7.4%	High	Win
Xander Bogaerts	Hits	Under 0.5	0.72	1	-2.0%	Low	Loss
Daylen Lile	Hits	Over 0.5	1.14	0	+11.2%	High	Loss
Luis Campusano	Hits	Under 0.5	0.71	0	-3.1%	Low	Win
Brady House	Hits	Over 0.5	0.99	0	+9.8%	High	Loss
Dustin Harris	Hits	Over 0.5	0.93	0	+8.4%	High	Loss
CJ Abrams	Hits	Over 0.5	0.75	0	+0.1%	Low	Loss
James Wood	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	1	+8.7%	High	Win
Keibert Ruiz	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	0	+15.7%	High	Loss
Freddy Fermin	Hits	Under 0.5	0.58	—	-3.5%	Low	Void
Dylan Crews	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	2	+11.8%	High	Win
Abimelec Ortiz	Hits	Under 0.5	0.56	1	-3.3%	Low	Loss
Jacob Young	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	0	+16.4%	High	Loss
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 2.5	1.99	4	-2.2%	Low	Loss
Ty France	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.14	0	+3.3%	Medium	Loss
Jackson Merrill	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.87	5	-0.3%	Low	Win
Manny Machado	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.04	5	+3.3%	Medium	Win
Jake Cronenworth	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.12	0	+3.6%	Medium	Win
Luis Campusano	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.40	0	-1.1%	Low	Loss
Xander Bogaerts	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.45	1	-0.3%	Low	Loss
James Wood	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.00	1	+10.9%	High	Loss
Daylen Lile	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.58	0	+21.9%	Low	Loss
CJ Abrams	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.81	0	+10.1%	High	Loss
Dustin Harris	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.43	0	+3.7%	Medium	Loss
Brady House	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.34	0	+22.8%	Low	Loss
Keibert Ruiz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.01	0	+13.0%	High	Loss
Freddy Fermin	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.05	—	+2.3%	Low	Void
Dylan Crews	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.92	5	+20.0%	Low	Win
Abimelec Ortiz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.14	2	+4.1%	Medium	Win
Jacob Young	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.72	0	+20.3%	Low	Loss
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.78	3	+3.3%	Medium	Win
Jackson Merrill	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.60	4	+4.9%	Medium	Win
Manny Machado	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.67	3	+6.7%	High	Win
Ty France	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.81	0	+10.1%	High	Loss

STL @ SF

25–1136 dec69.4%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Logan Webb	Strikeouts	Under 5.5	3.79	8	+20.6%	Low	Loss
Michael McGreevy	Strikeouts	Over 3.5	3.72	4	+7.1%	High	Win
Alec Burleson	Hits	Under 1.5	0.94	1	+2.5%	Low	Win
Jung Hoo Lee	Hits	Under 1.5	0.83	1	+0.3%	Low	Win
Rafael Devers	Hits	Over 0.5	1.24	2	+9.4%	High	Win
Jordan Walker	Hits	Over 0.5	1.16	1	+7.5%	High	Win
Bryan Torres	Hits	Under 0.5	0.77	1	-1.5%	Low	Loss
Drew Gilbert	Hits	Under 0.5	0.52	0	+8.6%	High	Win
Bryce Eldridge	Hits	Over 0.5	1.12	2	+10.3%	High	Win
Turner Hill	Hits	Over 0.5	1.04	0	+3.2%	Medium	Loss
Nathan Church	Hits	Over 0.5	0.85	1	+3.9%	Medium	Win
Thomas Saggese	Hits	Over 0.5	1.15	2	+15.9%	High	Win
Nate Furman	Hits	Under 0.5	0.33	—	+10.3%	High	Void
Drew Cavanaugh	Hits	Under 0.5	0.62	0	-3.1%	Low	Win
Christian Koss	Hits	Over 0.5	0.66	1	-1.2%	Low	Win
Shay Whitcomb	Hits	Under 0.5	0.40	2	+2.8%	Medium	Loss
Nolan Gorman	Hits	Over 0.5	0.55	0	-0.3%	Low	Loss
Rafael Devers	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	3.10	4	+17.1%	High	Win
Alec Burleson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.98	4	+0.5%	Low	Win
Jung Hoo Lee	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.77	1	-1.0%	Low	Loss
Drew Gilbert	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.42	0	-2.8%	Low	Win
Jordan Walker	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.34	1	+12.4%	High	Loss
Bryce Eldridge	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.23	5	+14.4%	High	Win
Bryan Torres	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.31	1	-1.2%	Low	Win
Turner Hill	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.32	2	+17.2%	High	Win
Thomas Saggese	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.59	2	+26.0%	Low	Win
Drew Cavanaugh	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	0.94	0	+2.1%	Low	Win
Nathan Church	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.72	2	+11.6%	High	Win
Shay Whitcomb	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	0.87	3	+1.9%	Low	Loss
Nate Furman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 0.5	0.67	—	+2.9%	Medium	Void
Christian Koss	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.69	2	+11.8%	High	Win
Nolan Gorman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.31	1	+11.7%	High	Win
Alec Burleson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.34	4	-2.4%	Low	Win
Rafael Devers	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.78	4	+25.1%	Low	Win
Jung Hoo Lee	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.12	1	-3.0%	Low	Loss
Jordan Walker	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.87	1	+16.5%	High	Loss
Bryan Torres	Total Bases	Under 1.5	0.92	1	+0.3%	Low	Win
Logan Webb	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	3.79	8	+20.1%	Low	Loss

CIN @ LAD

10–2030 dec33.3%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Chase Burns	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	6.63	5	+28.7%	Low	Win
Freddie Freeman	Hits	Over 0.5	1.12	0	+3.5%	Medium	Loss
Shohei Ohtani	Hits	Under 0.5	0.79	0	+0.7%	Low	Win
Tommy Edman	Hits	Over 0.5	1.14	0	+4.8%	Medium	Loss
Mookie Betts	Hits	Over 0.5	1.18	—	+8.0%	High	Void
Elly De La Cruz	Hits	Over 0.5	1.50	2	+18.1%	High	Win
Sal Stewart	Hits	Over 0.5	1.16	0	+12.6%	High	Loss
Kyle Tucker	Hits	Under 0.5	0.60	0	+1.3%	Low	Win
Will Smith	Hits	Under 0.5	0.59	0	+0.7%	Low	Win
JJ Bleday	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	0	+0.3%	Low	Loss
Tyler Stephenson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	0	+9.5%	High	Loss
Max Muncy	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	1	+10.5%	High	Win
Juan Brito	Hits	Over 0.5	0.69	—	+4.0%	Medium	Void
Matt McLain	Hits	Over 0.5	0.62	0	+2.6%	Medium	Loss
Alex Freeland	Hits	Over 0.5	0.35	0	-3.0%	Low	Loss
Shohei Ohtani	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.69	0	-2.4%	Low	Win
Freddie Freeman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.26	1	+9.3%	High	Loss
Mookie Betts	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.62	—	+16.8%	High	Void
Tommy Edman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.39	0	+13.1%	High	Loss
Elly De La Cruz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	3.02	4	+24.6%	Low	Win
Will Smith	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.39	1	-1.9%	Low	Loss
Sal Stewart	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.52	0	+18.2%	High	Loss
Kyle Tucker	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.34	0	-2.2%	Low	Loss
JJ Bleday	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.66	0	+6.5%	High	Loss
Max Muncy	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.61	3	+7.0%	High	Win
Tyler Stephenson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.07	0	+18.3%	High	Loss
Juan Brito	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.89	—	+15.3%	High	Void
Matt McLain	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.58	0	+12.7%	High	Loss
Alex Freeland	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.74	0	-0.7%	Low	Loss
Shohei Ohtani	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.42	0	+0.4%	Low	Loss
Freddie Freeman	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.66	0	+6.8%	High	Loss
Sal Stewart	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.08	0	+18.5%	High	Loss
Elly De La Cruz	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.37	5	+24.1%	Low	Win
Mookie Betts	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.08	—	+18.2%	High	Void
Tommy Edman	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.65	0	+12.9%	High	Loss

TOR @ ATH

20–2040 dec50.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Dylan Cease	Strikeouts	Over 7.5	7.49	6	-0.9%	Low	Loss
Jacob Lopez	Strikeouts	Over 4.5	6.05	1	+25.2%	Low	Loss
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Hits	Under 1.5	0.94	1	+0.9%	Low	Win
Ernie Clement	Hits	Under 1.5	0.82	1	+4.3%	Medium	Win
George Springer	Hits	Over 1.5	1.12	0	-1.0%	Low	Loss
Alejandro Kirk	Hits	Under 0.5	0.93	2	-3.0%	Low	Loss
Brett Bateman	Hits	Over 0.5	1.40	0	+13.6%	High	Loss
Kazuma Okamoto	Hits	Over 0.5	0.88	1	-0.3%	Low	Win
Jeff McNeil	Hits	Over 0.5	1.09	1	+7.4%	High	Win
Nathan Lukes	Hits	Over 0.5	1.06	2	+9.5%	High	Win
Henry Bolte	Hits	Over 0.5	1.08	1	+10.6%	High	Win
Jonah Heim	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	0	+5.2%	High	Loss
Zack Gelof	Hits	Over 0.5	1.02	1	+12.5%	High	Win
Charles McAdoo	Hits	Under 0.5	0.62	—	-3.5%	Low	Void
Myles Straw	Hits	Over 0.5	0.82	0	+5.5%	High	Loss
Lawrence Butler	Hits	Over 0.5	0.85	0	+7.6%	High	Loss
Carlos Cortes	Hits	Over 0.5	0.71	2	+1.9%	Low	Win
Donovan Walton	Hits	Over 0.5	0.57	0	-0.2%	Low	Loss
Alika Williams	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	0	+16.6%	High	Loss
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.06	1	-0.0%	Low	Loss
George Springer	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.28	0	+6.2%	High	Loss
Alejandro Kirk	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.84	4	-2.8%	Low	Win
Kazuma Okamoto	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.04	3	+3.8%	Medium	Win
Ernie Clement	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.49	2	-0.5%	Low	Loss
Brett Bateman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.41	0	+19.6%	High	Loss
Nathan Lukes	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.97	3	+12.3%	High	Win
Jeff McNeil	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.12	2	+15.1%	High	Win
Charles McAdoo	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.21	—	-2.9%	Low	Void
Myles Straw	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.55	0	+6.3%	High	Loss
Zack Gelof	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.35	5	+22.7%	Low	Win
Henry Bolte	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.00	5	+16.0%	High	Win
Lawrence Butler	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.86	0	+14.4%	High	Loss
Jonah Heim	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.62	0	+9.1%	High	Loss
Carlos Cortes	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.32	3	+6.0%	High	Win
Donovan Walton	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.26	1	+10.6%	High	Win
Alika Williams	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.86	0	+26.6%	Low	Loss
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.37	1	-3.2%	Low	Win
George Springer	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.98	0	+11.9%	High	Loss
Kazuma Okamoto	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.72	4	+7.8%	High	Win
Alejandro Kirk	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.37	5	+0.1%	Low	Win
Ernie Clement	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.08	1	-1.0%	Low	Win
Brett Bateman	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.57	0	+13.8%	High	Loss

all settled dates