49.2%

95–98 on 193 decisive

Combined audit across the sports that had settled rows on 2026-07-23. Pushes excluded. Pending games never count as losses.

At a glance

Hit

model agreed and the line cleared

Miss

model agreed but the line did not clear

Push

final stat tied the line — excluded from hit rate

Pending

no games still pending on this date

MLB

49.2%

95–98 on 193

Full MLB audit →

Biggest hits

MLBTy FranceOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+24.2pp edgeactual 4
MLBNolan ArenadoOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+23.3pp edgeactual 4
MLBFernando Tatis Jr.Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+23.3pp edgeactual 2
MLBRoyce LewisOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+20.4pp edgeactual 2
MLBManny MachadoOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+18.9pp edgeactual 3

Biggest misses

MLBChris SaleUnder 7.5 Strikeouts+21.6pp edgeactual 11
MLBChase DeLauterOver 1.5 Total Bases+19.7pp edgeactual 0
MLBBrayan RocchioOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+19.0pp edgeactual 0
MLBChandler SimpsonOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+14.9pp edgeactual 0
MLBChase DeLauterOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+13.5pp edgeactual 0

MLB settled games · projection vs actual

SD @ ATL

25–1540 dec62.5%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Chris Sale	Strikeouts	Under 7.5	5.64	11	+21.6%	Low	Loss
Michael Harris II	Hits	Over 1.5	1.06	2	-1.9%	Low	Win
Matt Olson	Hits	Under 1.5	1.02	0	-0.8%	Low	Win
Ozzie Albies	Hits	Under 1.5	0.86	2	+3.1%	Medium	Loss
Drake Baldwin	Hits	Over 1.5	1.33	1	+9.7%	High	Loss
Luis Rengifo	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	2	+1.3%	Low	Win
Austin Riley	Hits	Over 0.5	0.89	1	-0.7%	Low	Win
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	1.16	1	+8.9%	High	Win
Xander Bogaerts	Hits	Under 0.5	0.69	0	-0.9%	Low	Win
Dominic Smith	Hits	Under 0.5	0.54	1	+5.8%	High	Loss
Manny Machado	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	2	+7.3%	High	Win
Ty France	Hits	Over 0.5	1.20	1	+15.4%	High	Win
Mike Yastrzemski	Hits	Over 0.5	0.66	1	+0.6%	Low	Win
Gavin Sheets	Hits	Under 0.5	0.44	1	+0.9%	Low	Loss
Freddy Fermin	Hits	Under 0.5	0.48	1	-1.2%	Low	Loss
Jake Cronenworth	Hits	Over 0.5	0.83	1	+11.8%	High	Win
Jase Bowen	Hits	Over 0.5	0.38	0	-2.3%	Low	Loss
Matt Olson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 2.5	2.11	0	-3.4%	Low	Win
Drake Baldwin	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.94	3	+11.0%	High	Win
Michael Harris II	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.24	5	+1.8%	Low	Win
Ozzie Albies	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.00	4	+0.1%	Low	Win
Austin Riley	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.99	1	+5.5%	High	Loss
Dominic Smith	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.32	5	-3.4%	Low	Loss
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.59	2	+23.3%	Low	Win
Luis Rengifo	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.94	4	+13.4%	High	Win
Xander Bogaerts	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.49	0	+4.5%	Medium	Loss
Manny Machado	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.22	3	+18.9%	High	Win
Mike Yastrzemski	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.77	1	+11.8%	High	Loss
Ty France	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.64	4	+24.2%	Low	Win
Gavin Sheets	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.20	2	+4.2%	Medium	Win
Freddy Fermin	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.79	2	+0.0%	Low	Win
Jake Cronenworth	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.44	2	+16.9%	High	Win
Jase Bowen	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.85	0	+6.2%	High	Loss
Matt Olson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.88	0	+5.7%	High	Loss
Michael Harris II	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.90	5	+7.3%	High	Win
Drake Baldwin	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.17	4	+14.2%	High	Win
Ozzie Albies	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.44	5	+1.8%	Low	Win
Austin Riley	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.59	1	+8.3%	High	Loss
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.00	1	+19.7%	High	Loss
Luis Rengifo	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.22	2	-1.0%	Low	Win

MIN @ CLE

13–2841 dec31.7%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Gavin Williams	Strikeouts	Over 6.5	8.40	11	+18.7%	High	Win
Taj Bradley	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	6.97	5	+12.3%	High	Loss
Chase DeLauter	Hits	Over 0.5	1.24	0	+8.4%	High	Loss
Steven Kwan	Hits	Over 0.5	1.16	2	+10.8%	High	Win
Brooks Lee	Hits	Over 0.5	1.03	0	+5.7%	High	Loss
Byron Buxton	Hits	Over 0.5	1.06	1	+7.3%	High	Win
Brayan Rocchio	Hits	Over 0.5	1.12	0	+10.5%	High	Loss
Ryan Jeffers	Hits	Over 0.5	0.93	1	+5.6%	High	Win
Kody Clemens	Hits	Under 0.5	0.69	1	-2.4%	Low	Loss
Travis Bazzana	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	0	+5.4%	High	Loss
Josh Bell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	0	+10.4%	High	Loss
Luke Keaschall	Hits	Over 0.5	0.89	1	+9.5%	High	Win
Austin Martin	Hits	Over 0.5	0.60	0	-2.8%	Low	Loss
Rhys Hoskins	Hits	Under 0.5	0.51	0	-0.2%	Low	Win
Petey Halpin	Hits	Over 0.5	0.67	0	+2.4%	Low	Loss
Royce Lewis	Hits	Over 0.5	0.79	0	+8.8%	High	Loss
Patrick Bailey	Hits	Over 0.5	0.80	1	+11.2%	High	Win
Kyle Manzardo	Hits	Over 0.5	0.63	0	+4.2%	Medium	Loss
Ryan Kreidler	Hits	Over 0.5	0.47	0	-0.2%	Low	Loss
Chase DeLauter	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.33	0	+13.5%	High	Loss
Steven Kwan	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.98	2	+13.3%	High	Win
Byron Buxton	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.22	1	+13.0%	High	Loss
Brooks Lee	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.06	0	+11.7%	High	Loss
Brayan Rocchio	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.28	0	+19.0%	High	Loss
Kody Clemens	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.53	1	+3.2%	Medium	Loss
Ryan Jeffers	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.22	2	+15.6%	High	Win
Travis Bazzana	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.98	0	+12.5%	High	Loss
Josh Bell	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.77	0	+10.6%	High	Loss
Rhys Hoskins	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.35	0	+2.3%	Low	Loss
Luke Keaschall	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.65	2	+14.3%	High	Win
Austin Martin	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.28	0	+8.2%	High	Loss
Petey Halpin	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.40	0	+7.4%	High	Loss
Royce Lewis	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.84	2	+20.4%	Low	Win
Kyle Manzardo	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.40	0	+11.7%	High	Loss
Patrick Bailey	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.63	3	+17.6%	High	Win
Ryan Kreidler	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.02	0	+6.9%	High	Loss
Chase DeLauter	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.15	0	+19.7%	High	Loss
Byron Buxton	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.96	1	+13.8%	High	Loss
Brooks Lee	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.72	0	+14.1%	High	Loss
Steven Kwan	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.42	2	+7.2%	High	Win
Taj Bradley	Strikeouts	Over 6.5	6.97	5	+13.6%	High	Loss

TB @ TOR

12–2032 dec37.5%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Shane Bieber	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	4.09	3	-0.5%	Low	Win
Junior Caminero	Hits	Over 1.5	1.30	0	+3.4%	Medium	Loss
Ernie Clement	Hits	Over 1.5	1.17	1	+1.3%	Low	Loss
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Hits	Under 1.5	0.87	2	+1.7%	Low	Loss
Chandler Simpson	Hits	Over 0.5	1.35	0	+10.0%	High	Loss
Jonathan Aranda	Hits	Over 0.5	1.08	0	+2.2%	Low	Loss
Victor Mesa Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	0.90	0	+0.9%	Low	Loss
George Springer	Hits	Over 0.5	0.94	2	+4.5%	Medium	Win
Cedric Mullins	Hits	Under 0.5	0.60	—	+3.5%	Medium	Void
Alejandro Kirk	Hits	Over 0.5	0.75	1	-3.1%	Low	Win
Kazuma Okamoto	Hits	Under 0.5	0.66	0	+0.3%	Low	Win
Taylor Walls	Hits	Over 0.5	0.71	—	-1.0%	Low	Void
Myles Straw	Hits	Under 0.5	0.38	0	+8.0%	High	Win
Richie Palacios	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	0	+1.5%	Low	Loss
Daulton Varsho	Hits	Over 0.5	0.77	—	+4.4%	Medium	Void
Hunter Feduccia	Hits	Over 0.5	0.62	1	-0.5%	Low	Win
Junior Caminero	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 2.5	2.53	0	+2.2%	Low	Loss
Ernie Clement	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.90	2	+0.2%	Low	Win
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.90	3	+0.1%	Low	Win
Jonathan Aranda	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.99	0	+3.8%	Medium	Loss
Chandler Simpson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.19	0	+14.9%	High	Loss
Kazuma Okamoto	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.78	0	+3.9%	Medium	Loss
Victor Mesa Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.14	0	+12.9%	High	Loss
Cedric Mullins	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.34	—	-2.2%	Low	Void
George Springer	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.91	3	+9.9%	High	Win
Alejandro Kirk	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.38	2	-2.2%	Low	Win
Taylor Walls	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.28	—	-2.1%	Low	Void
Richie Palacios	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.43	0	+4.8%	Medium	Loss
Myles Straw	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 0.5	0.69	1	+3.4%	Medium	Loss
Daulton Varsho	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.43	—	+7.0%	High	Void
Hunter Feduccia	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.05	2	+5.4%	High	Win
Junior Caminero	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.31	0	+9.9%	High	Loss
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.45	2	+1.0%	Low	Win
Ernie Clement	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.57	1	+5.2%	High	Loss
Jonathan Aranda	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.67	0	+8.1%	High	Loss
Kazuma Okamoto	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.41	0	+4.2%	Medium	Loss
Victor Mesa Jr.	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.09	0	+19.8%	High	Loss
Chandler Simpson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.77	0	+18.2%	High	Loss

AZ @ STL

23–1639 dec59.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Michael McGreevy	Strikeouts	Over 3.5	4.25	3	+18.3%	High	Loss
Brandon Pfaadt	Strikeouts	Under 3.5	3.18	1	+2.7%	Medium	Win
Alec Burleson	Hits	Under 1.5	1.08	3	-2.0%	Low	Loss
Jordan Walker	Hits	Over 0.5	1.01	2	-1.6%	Low	Win
Gabriel Moreno	Hits	Over 0.5	1.17	3	+7.2%	High	Win
Corbin Carroll	Hits	Under 0.5	0.77	1	+1.8%	Low	Loss
Ketel Marte	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	—	-1.9%	Low	Void
JJ Wetherholt	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	2	-1.5%	Low	Win
Masyn Winn	Hits	Under 0.5	0.63	0	+2.3%	Low	Win
Geraldo Perdomo	Hits	Over 0.5	0.77	0	-2.7%	Low	Loss
Max Kepler	Hits	Over 0.5	0.85	0	+1.7%	Low	Loss
Ildemaro Vargas	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	3	+5.7%	High	Win
Lars Nootbaar	Hits	Under 0.5	0.66	2	-1.9%	Low	Loss
Nathan Church	Hits	Under 0.5	0.47	1	+7.0%	High	Loss
Nolan Arenado	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	2	+5.7%	High	Win
Tim Tawa	Hits	Over 0.5	0.89	1	+6.9%	High	Win
Blaze Jordan	Hits	Over 0.5	0.98	0	+11.2%	High	Loss
Ryan Waldschmidt	Hits	Over 0.5	0.80	0	+8.8%	High	Loss
Jimmy Crooks	Hits	Under 0.5	0.41	1	+1.2%	Low	Loss
Alec Burleson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.15	4	+3.1%	Medium	Win
Jordan Walker	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.31	4	+6.5%	High	Win
Corbin Carroll	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.81	3	+1.2%	Low	Win
Ketel Marte	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.06	—	+6.4%	High	Void
Gabriel Moreno	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.37	6	+16.3%	High	Win
JJ Wetherholt	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.95	4	+7.1%	High	Win
Geraldo Perdomo	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.70	0	+6.0%	High	Loss
Max Kepler	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.15	1	+14.2%	High	Loss
Masyn Winn	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.27	0	-2.7%	Low	Loss
Lars Nootbaar	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.51	5	+3.3%	Medium	Win
Nathan Church	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	0.89	2	+1.5%	Low	Loss
Ildemaro Vargas	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.97	4	+14.7%	High	Win
Nolan Arenado	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.32	4	+23.3%	Low	Win
Tim Tawa	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.02	3	+18.0%	High	Win
Blaze Jordan	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.99	0	+11.6%	High	Loss
Ryan Waldschmidt	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.54	0	+13.1%	High	Loss
Jimmy Crooks	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.83	1	+1.3%	Low	Win
Alec Burleson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.54	5	+1.2%	Low	Win
Jordan Walker	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.69	3	+5.6%	High	Win
Corbin Carroll	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.66	3	+5.6%	High	Win
Ketel Marte	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.53	—	+5.6%	High	Void
Gabriel Moreno	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.66	4	+11.8%	High	Win
JJ Wetherholt	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.55	2	+11.1%	High	Win

KC @ DET

22–1941 dec53.7%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Randy Dobnak	Strikeouts	Under 3.5	2.33	3	+16.3%	High	Win
Troy Melton	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	7.08	5	+19.1%	High	Loss
Kevin McGonigle	Hits	Under 1.5	0.98	1	+0.1%	Low	Win
Riley Greene	Hits	Under 1.5	0.86	1	+2.5%	Low	Win
Dillon Dingler	Hits	Over 1.5	1.06	2	+1.7%	Low	Win
Gleyber Torres	Hits	Under 0.5	0.96	1	-3.0%	Low	Loss
Colt Keith	Hits	Under 0.5	0.66	0	+6.6%	High	Win
Kerry Carpenter	Hits	Under 0.5	0.34	1	+17.1%	High	Loss
Vinnie Pasquantino	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	2	+0.8%	Low	Win
Zach McKinstry	Hits	Under 0.5	0.50	2	+9.2%	High	Loss
Lane Thomas	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	0	+5.6%	High	Loss
Michael Massey	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	2	+8.1%	High	Win
Spencer Torkelson	Hits	Under 0.5	0.66	0	-1.7%	Low	Win
Carter Jensen	Hits	Over 0.5	0.78	1	+0.5%	Low	Win
Salvador Perez	Hits	Over 0.5	0.76	0	-0.2%	Low	Loss
Isaac Collins	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	1	+5.7%	High	Win
Starling Marte	Hits	Over 0.5	0.82	—	+6.5%	High	Void
Josh Rojas	Hits	Over 0.5	0.64	2	+0.2%	Low	Win
James Outman	Hits	Under 0.5	0.45	1	-1.4%	Low	Loss
Tyler Tolbert	Hits	Over 0.5	1.05	—	+12.3%	High	Void
Riley Greene	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.97	1	-2.6%	Low	Loss
Kevin McGonigle	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.82	1	-3.0%	Low	Win
Dillon Dingler	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.24	4	+0.8%	Low	Win
Gleyber Torres	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.86	1	+0.2%	Low	Loss
Colt Keith	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.30	0	+3.5%	Medium	Win
Kerry Carpenter	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	0.79	2	+10.7%	High	Loss
Zach McKinstry	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.07	2	+5.7%	High	Loss
Spencer Torkelson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.87	0	+8.2%	High	Loss
Vinnie Pasquantino	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.76	2	+8.6%	High	Win
Carter Jensen	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.59	1	+5.0%	Medium	Loss
Lane Thomas	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.84	0	+10.7%	High	Loss
Salvador Perez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.78	0	+10.0%	High	Loss
Michael Massey	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.74	3	+10.3%	High	Win
Isaac Collins	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.62	4	+10.7%	High	Win
Starling Marte	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.38	—	+10.0%	High	Void
Josh Rojas	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.10	3	+7.6%	High	Win
James Outman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.97	5	+0.1%	Low	Win
Tyler Tolbert	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.01	—	+13.3%	High	Void
Riley Greene	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.65	1	+4.3%	Medium	Loss
Dillon Dingler	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.09	3	+10.6%	High	Win
Kevin McGonigle	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.65	1	+6.3%	High	Loss
Colt Keith	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.07	0	-2.5%	Low	Loss
Gleyber Torres	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.41	1	+6.1%	High	Loss
Vinnie Pasquantino	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.14	2	-1.7%	Low	Win
Kerry Carpenter	Total Bases	Under 1.5	0.65	1	+3.5%	Medium	Win

all settled dates