54.8%

23–19 on 42 decisive

Combined audit across the sports that had settled rows on 2026-07-21. Pushes excluded. Pending games never count as losses.

At a glance

Hit

model agreed and the line cleared

Miss

model agreed but the line did not clear

Push

final stat tied the line — excluded from hit rate

Pending

no games still pending on this date

MLB

54.8%

23–19 on 42

Full MLB audit →

Biggest hits

MLBZack WheelerOver 6.5 Strikeouts+31.4pp edgeactual 9
MLBJustin WrobleskiOver 5.5 Strikeouts+12.8pp edgeactual 7
MLBJacob WilsonOver 1.5 Total Bases+12.0pp edgeactual 4
MLBNolan ArenadoOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+8.5pp edgeactual 2
MLBHenry BolteUnder 0.5 Hits+6.6pp edgeactual 0

Biggest misses

MLBKevin GausmanOver 5.5 Strikeouts+22.9pp edgeactual 1
MLBNolan ArenadoOver 1.5 Total Bases+14.6pp edgeactual 1
MLBTyler SoderstromOver 1.5 Total Bases+8.4pp edgeactual 1
MLBGeraldo PerdomoOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+3.5pp edgeactual 1
MLBWalker BuehlerOver 3.5 Strikeouts+2.7pp edgeactual 3

MLB settled games · projection vs actual

LAD @ PHI

2–02 dec100.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Zack Wheeler	Strikeouts	Over 6.5	9.47	9	+31.4%	Low	Win
Justin Wrobleski	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	6.27	7	+12.8%	High	Win

TB @ TOR

0–22 dec0.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Drew Rasmussen	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	4.10	5	-1.2%	Low	Loss
Kevin Gausman	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	6.83	1	+22.9%	Low	Loss

BAL @ BOS

0–00 dec—

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Ceddanne Rafaela	Hits	Over 0.5	1.10	—	+4.1%	Medium	Void
Caleb Durbin	Hits	Over 0.5	1.05	—	+3.5%	Medium	Void
Gunnar Henderson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	—	-1.4%	Low	Void
Wilyer Abreu	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	—	+5.9%	High	Void
Willson Contreras	Hits	Over 0.5	1.17	—	+8.1%	High	Void
Anthony Seigler	Hits	Under 0.5	0.72	—	+0.9%	Low	Void
Masataka Yoshida	Hits	Over 0.5	0.99	—	+4.0%	Medium	Void
Taylor Ward	Hits	Under 0.5	0.81	—	-2.5%	Low	Void
Pete Alonso	Hits	Over 0.5	0.81	—	-2.2%	Low	Void
Jeremiah Jackson	Hits	Under 0.5	0.71	—	-0.6%	Low	Void
Leody Taveras	Hits	Under 0.5	0.63	—	+0.8%	Low	Void
Jarren Duran	Hits	Under 0.5	0.52	—	+5.8%	High	Void
Samuel Basallo	Hits	Under 0.5	0.60	—	+1.6%	Low	Void
Tyler O'Neill	Hits	Over 0.5	0.68	—	-1.3%	Low	Void
Coby Mayo	Hits	Under 0.5	0.61	—	-3.5%	Low	Void
Tsung-Che Cheng	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	—	+12.1%	High	Void
Wilyer Abreu	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.38	—	+20.9%	Low	Void
Gunnar Henderson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.64	—	+7.9%	High	Void
Willson Contreras	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.39	—	+22.9%	Low	Void
Caleb Durbin	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.68	—	+10.4%	High	Void
Ceddanne Rafaela	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.64	—	+10.3%	High	Void
Pete Alonso	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.55	—	+8.7%	High	Void
Taylor Ward	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.37	—	+5.3%	High	Void
Anthony Seigler	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.17	—	+1.4%	Low	Void

SD @ ATL

0–11 dec0.0%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Walker Buehler	Strikeouts	Over 3.5	3.94	3	+2.7%	Medium	Loss

ATH @ AZ

21–1637 dec56.8%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Jack Perkins	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	4.10	4	+0.9%	Low	Win
Jacob Wilson	Hits	Over 1.5	1.34	1	+2.9%	Medium	Loss
Shea Langeliers	Hits	Under 1.5	0.93	1	+3.2%	Medium	Win
Ketel Marte	Hits	Under 1.5	0.92	0	+2.4%	Low	Win
Gabriel Moreno	Hits	Over 1.5	1.27	1	+6.1%	High	Loss
Tyler Soderstrom	Hits	Under 0.5	0.84	1	+1.2%	Low	Loss
Corbin Carroll	Hits	Under 0.5	0.66	1	+8.8%	High	Loss
Geraldo Perdomo	Hits	Under 0.5	0.82	1	-1.1%	Low	Loss
Jonah Heim	Hits	Under 0.5	0.78	1	+0.1%	Low	Loss
Nolan Arenado	Hits	Over 0.5	0.92	1	+1.3%	Low	Win
Henry Bolte	Hits	Under 0.5	0.58	0	+6.6%	High	Win
Max Kepler	Hits	Under 0.5	0.73	2	-0.7%	Low	Loss
Tim Tawa	Hits	Over 0.5	0.77	1	-3.0%	Low	Win
Colby Thomas	Hits	Under 0.5	0.33	—	+12.1%	High	Void
Ryan Waldschmidt	Hits	Over 0.5	0.73	—	+0.7%	Low	Void
Alika Williams	Hits	Over 0.5	0.64	1	-1.6%	Low	Win
Adrian Del Castillo	Hits	Over 0.5	0.65	—	-0.1%	Low	Void
Jacob Wilson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.33	4	+5.6%	High	Win
Ketel Marte	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.90	2	-2.3%	Low	Loss
Gabriel Moreno	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.25	3	+5.8%	High	Win
Shea Langeliers	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.96	3	-1.6%	Low	Win
Corbin Carroll	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.54	2	+2.7%	Medium	Loss
Tyler Soderstrom	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.98	2	+0.7%	Low	Win
Geraldo Perdomo	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.96	1	+3.5%	Medium	Loss
Jonah Heim	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.64	2	-2.3%	Low	Win
Max Kepler	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.77	6	+1.2%	Low	Win
Nolan Arenado	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.10	2	+8.5%	High	Win
Henry Bolte	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.14	0	+5.4%	High	Win
Tim Tawa	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.72	1	+3.8%	Medium	Loss
Colby Thomas	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	0.68	—	+13.1%	High	Void
Ryan Waldschmidt	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.28	—	-2.3%	Low	Void
Alika Williams	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.18	2	-2.4%	Low	Win
Adrian Del Castillo	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.42	—	+8.7%	High	Void
Ketel Marte	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.53	0	-0.6%	Low	Loss
Shea Langeliers	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.79	4	+4.2%	Medium	Win
Corbin Carroll	Total Bases	Under 1.5	1.34	1	-2.9%	Low	Win
Jacob Wilson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.99	4	+12.0%	High	Win
Gabriel Moreno	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.65	1	+6.8%	High	Loss
Tyler Soderstrom	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.76	1	+8.4%	High	Loss
Jonah Heim	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.26	1	+1.1%	Low	Loss
Nolan Arenado	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.83	1	+14.6%	High	Loss
Max Kepler	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.18	5	-0.8%	Low	Win
Geraldo Perdomo	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.33	2	+3.8%	Medium	Win

all settled dates