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Results · one day

Tuesday, July 21

Game by game

Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.

MLB · 0–0 game calls

Full MLB record →

Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.

No qualifying board was frozen for Tuesday, July 21.

  • MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
  • Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
  • UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks

Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.

MLB
54.8%
23–19 on 42
Full MLB audit →
Biggest hits
  • MLBZack WheelerOver 6.5 Strikeouts+31.4pp edgeactual 9
  • MLBJustin WrobleskiOver 5.5 Strikeouts+12.8pp edgeactual 7
  • MLBJacob WilsonOver 1.5 Total Bases+12.0pp edgeactual 4
  • MLBNolan ArenadoOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+8.5pp edgeactual 2
  • MLBHenry BolteUnder 0.5 Hits+6.6pp edgeactual 0
Biggest misses
  • MLBKevin GausmanOver 5.5 Strikeouts+22.9pp edgeactual 1
  • MLBNolan ArenadoOver 1.5 Total Bases+14.6pp edgeactual 1
  • MLBTyler SoderstromOver 1.5 Total Bases+8.4pp edgeactual 1
  • MLBGeraldo PerdomoOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+3.5pp edgeactual 1
  • MLBWalker BuehlerOver 3.5 Strikeouts+2.7pp edgeactual 3
MLB settled games · projection vs actual
LAD @ PHI
2–02 dec100.0%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Zack WheelerStrikeoutsOver 6.59.479+31.4%LowWin
Justin WrobleskiStrikeoutsOver 5.56.277+12.8%HighWin
TB @ TOR
0–22 dec0.0%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Drew RasmussenStrikeoutsUnder 4.54.105-1.2%LowLoss
Kevin GausmanStrikeoutsOver 5.56.831+22.9%LowLoss
BAL @ BOS
0–00 dec24 void—
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Ceddanne RafaelaHitsOver 0.51.10—+4.1%MediumVoid
Caleb DurbinHitsOver 0.51.05—+3.5%MediumVoid
Gunnar HendersonHitsOver 0.50.97—-1.4%LowVoid
Wilyer AbreuHitsOver 0.51.11—+5.9%HighVoid
Willson ContrerasHitsOver 0.51.17—+8.1%HighVoid
Anthony SeiglerHitsUnder 0.50.72—+0.9%LowVoid
Masataka YoshidaHitsOver 0.50.99—+4.0%MediumVoid
Taylor WardHitsUnder 0.50.81—-2.5%LowVoid
Pete AlonsoHitsOver 0.50.81—-2.2%LowVoid
Jeremiah JacksonHitsUnder 0.50.71—-0.6%LowVoid
Leody TaverasHitsUnder 0.50.63—+0.8%LowVoid
Jarren DuranHitsUnder 0.50.52—+5.8%HighVoid
Samuel BasalloHitsUnder 0.50.60—+1.6%LowVoid
Tyler O'NeillHitsOver 0.50.68—-1.3%LowVoid
Coby MayoHitsUnder 0.50.61—-3.5%LowVoid
Tsung-Che ChengHitsOver 0.50.87—+12.1%HighVoid
Wilyer AbreuTotal BasesOver 1.52.38—+20.9%LowVoid
Gunnar HendersonTotal BasesOver 1.51.64—+7.9%HighVoid
Willson ContrerasTotal BasesOver 1.52.39—+22.9%LowVoid
Caleb DurbinTotal BasesOver 1.51.68—+10.4%HighVoid
Ceddanne RafaelaTotal BasesOver 1.51.64—+10.3%HighVoid
Pete AlonsoTotal BasesOver 1.51.55—+8.7%HighVoid
Taylor WardTotal BasesOver 1.51.37—+5.3%HighVoid
Anthony SeiglerTotal BasesOver 1.51.17—+1.4%LowVoid
SD @ ATL
0–11 dec0.0%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Walker BuehlerStrikeoutsOver 3.53.943+2.7%MediumLoss
ATH @ AZ
21–1637 dec6 void56.8%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Jack PerkinsStrikeoutsUnder 4.54.104+0.9%LowWin
Jacob WilsonHitsOver 1.51.341+2.9%MediumLoss
Shea LangeliersHitsUnder 1.50.931+3.2%MediumWin
Ketel MarteHitsUnder 1.50.920+2.4%LowWin
Gabriel MorenoHitsOver 1.51.271+6.1%HighLoss
Tyler SoderstromHitsUnder 0.50.841+1.2%LowLoss
Corbin CarrollHitsUnder 0.50.661+8.8%HighLoss
Geraldo PerdomoHitsUnder 0.50.821-1.1%LowLoss
Jonah HeimHitsUnder 0.50.781+0.1%LowLoss
Nolan ArenadoHitsOver 0.50.921+1.3%LowWin
Henry BolteHitsUnder 0.50.580+6.6%HighWin
Max KeplerHitsUnder 0.50.732-0.7%LowLoss
Tim TawaHitsOver 0.50.771-3.0%LowWin
Colby ThomasHitsUnder 0.50.33—+12.1%HighVoid
Ryan WaldschmidtHitsOver 0.50.73—+0.7%LowVoid
Alika WilliamsHitsOver 0.50.641-1.6%LowWin
Adrian Del CastilloHitsOver 0.50.65—-0.1%LowVoid
Jacob WilsonHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.334+5.6%HighWin
Ketel MarteHits + Runs + RBIsUnder 1.51.902-2.3%LowLoss
Gabriel MorenoHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.253+5.8%HighWin
Shea LangeliersHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.963-1.6%LowWin
Corbin CarrollHits + Runs + RBIsUnder 1.51.542+2.7%MediumLoss
Tyler SoderstromHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.982+0.7%LowWin
Geraldo PerdomoHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.961+3.5%MediumLoss
Jonah HeimHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.642-2.3%LowWin
Max KeplerHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.776+1.2%LowWin
Nolan ArenadoHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.102+8.5%HighWin
Henry BolteHits + Runs + RBIsUnder 1.51.140+5.4%HighWin
Tim TawaHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.721+3.8%MediumLoss
Colby ThomasHits + Runs + RBIsUnder 1.50.68—+13.1%HighVoid
Ryan WaldschmidtHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.28—-2.3%LowVoid
Alika WilliamsHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.182-2.4%LowWin
Adrian Del CastilloHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.42—+8.7%HighVoid
Ketel MarteTotal BasesOver 1.51.530-0.6%LowLoss
Shea LangeliersTotal BasesOver 1.51.794+4.2%MediumWin
Corbin CarrollTotal BasesUnder 1.51.341-2.9%LowWin
Jacob WilsonTotal BasesOver 1.51.994+12.0%HighWin
Gabriel MorenoTotal BasesOver 1.51.651+6.8%HighLoss
Tyler SoderstromTotal BasesOver 1.51.761+8.4%HighLoss
Jonah HeimTotal BasesOver 1.51.261+1.1%LowLoss
Nolan ArenadoTotal BasesOver 1.51.831+14.6%HighLoss
Max KeplerTotal BasesOver 1.51.185-0.8%LowWin
Geraldo PerdomoTotal BasesOver 1.51.332+3.8%MediumWin
all settled dates
each record stands alone · pushes and voids are never losses · educational use only · not betting advice