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Settled · graded against final box scores

23–19 on 42 decisive picks · 54.8%2026-07-21

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MLB model board · 2026-07-21

15 MLB games · 63 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDJul 21, 9:13 AM ETeducational analytics only

Gap ≥ 5 pp

model vs market · context

Gap 2.5–5 pp

model vs market · context

Small gap

2 anomalies shown separately

Sample too small

no projection emitted

Strikeouts2 gap ≥ 5 pp·9 totalHits8 gap ≥ 5 pp·36 totalHits + Runs + RBIs6 gap ≥ 5 pp·18 total

Highest model probabilities · 8 shown

Market context · no model anomalies

Willson ContrerasBOS vs BAL

Gap ≥ 5 pp

HitsOver 0.5+8.1%

proj 1.17-216 · draftkings

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS vs BAL

Gap 2.5–5 pp

HitsOver 0.5+4.1%

proj 1.1-253 · draftkings

Wilyer AbreuBOS vs BAL

Gap ≥ 5 pp

HitsOver 0.5+5.9%

proj 1.11-222 · draftkings

Shea LangeliersATH vs AZ

Gap 2.5–5 pp

HitsUnder 1.5+3.2%

proj 0.93-247 · draftkings

Caleb DurbinBOS vs BAL

Gap 2.5–5 pp

HitsOver 0.5+3.5%

proj 1.05-241 · draftkings

Ketel MarteAZ vs ATH

Small gap

HitsUnder 1.5+2.4%

proj 0.92-250 · draftkings

Colby ThomasATH vs AZ

Gap ≥ 5 pp

Hits + Runs + RBIsUnder 1.5+13.1%

proj 0.68-148 · draftkings

Adrian Del CastilloAZ vs ATH

Gap ≥ 5 pp

Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+8.7%

proj 1.42-176 · draftkings

Filters · 63 of 63 leans

Market

Gap size

Team

Sort

Density

Progressive Field0 leans

MIN@CLE

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians

first pitch

6:40 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayKendry Rojas

MIN

probable · homeParker Messick

CLE

prop lines pending

Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.

Citizens Bank Park2 leansFinal · graded

LAD@PHI

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies

first pitch

6:40 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayJustin Wrobleski

LAD

probable · homeZack Wheeler

PHI

Strikeouts

Justin Wrobleski

LADvsPHIPitcherStrikeouts

Gap ≥ 5 pp

OVER5.5

Projection6.27

Edge+12.8%

Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.7 strikeouts
SeasonSeason average 4.6 K across 16 starts

+112 · fanduel

Zack WheelerModel anomaly

PHIvsLADPitcherStrikeouts

Anomaly · gap too large to trust

OVER6.5

Projection9.47

Edge+31.4%

Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 11.3 strikeouts
SeasonSeason average 7.2 K across 15 starts
Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence

-122 · fanduel

Yankee Stadium0 leans

PIT@NYY

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees

first pitch

7:05 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayBubba Chandler

PIT

probable · homeWill Warren

NYY

prop lines pending

Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.

Rogers Centre2 leansFinal · graded

TB@TOR

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays

first pitch

7:07 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayDrew Rasmussen

probable · homeKevin Gausman

TOR

Strikeouts

Kevin GausmanModel anomaly

TORvsTBPitcherStrikeouts

Anomaly · gap too large to trust

OVER5.5

Projection6.83

Edge+23%

Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.7 strikeouts
SeasonSeason average 5.8 K across 20 starts
Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence

+108 · fanduel

Drew Rasmussen

TBvsTORPitcherStrikeouts

Small gap

UNDER4.5

Projection4.1

Edge−1.2%

Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
SeasonSeason average 5.4 K across 18 starts

-132 · fanduel

Fenway Park20 leansFinal · graded

BAL@BOS

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

first pitch

7:10 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayKyle Bradish

BAL

probable · homeRanger Suarez

BOS

Strikeouts

Ranger Suarez

BOSvsBALPitcherStrikeouts

Gap ≥ 5 pp

OVER5.5

Projection6.6

Edge+14.9%

Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.3 strikeouts
SeasonSeason average 5.7 K across 17 starts

-109 · draftkings

Kyle Bradish

BALvsBOSPitcherStrikeouts

Gap 2.5–5 pp

UNDER5.5

Projection4.71

Edge+3.5%

Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.0 strikeouts
SeasonSeason average 5.6 K across 19 starts

-142 · draftkings

Batter markets · hits + total bases

Tsung-Che Cheng

BOSvsBALBatterHits

Gap ≥ 5 pp

OVER0.5

Projection0.87

Edge+12.1%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 12 games

-121 · draftkings

Willson Contreras

BOSvsBALBatterHits

Gap ≥ 5 pp

OVER0.5

Projection1.17

Edge+8.1%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 91 games

-216 · draftkings

Wilyer Abreu

BOSvsBALBatterHits

Gap ≥ 5 pp

OVER0.5

Projection1.11

Edge+5.9%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 97 games

-222 · draftkings

Jarren Duran

BOSvsBALBatterHits

Gap ≥ 5 pp

UNDER0.5

Projection0.52

Edge+5.8%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 92 games

+131 · draftkings

Ceddanne Rafaela

BOSvsBALBatterHits

Gap 2.5–5 pp

OVER0.5

Projection1.1

Edge+4.1%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 93 games

-253 · draftkings

Masataka Yoshida

BOSvsBALBatterHits

Gap 2.5–5 pp

OVER0.5

Projection0.99

Edge+4%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 65 games

-210 · draftkings

Caleb Durbin

BOSvsBALBatterHits

Gap 2.5–5 pp

OVER0.5

Projection1.05

Edge+3.5%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 90 games

-241 · draftkings

Coby Mayo

BALvsBOSBatterHits

Small gap

UNDER0.5

Projection0.61

Edge−3.5%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 74 games

+107 · draftkings

Taylor Ward

BALvsBOSBatterHits

Small gap

UNDER0.5

Projection0.81

Edge−2.5%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 100 games

+151 · draftkings

Pete Alonso

BALvsBOSBatterHits

Small gap

OVER0.5

Projection0.81

Edge−2.2%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 101 games

-198 · draftkings

Samuel Basallo

BALvsBOSBatterHits

Small gap

UNDER0.5

Projection0.6

Edge+1.7%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 86 games

+129 · draftkings

Gunnar Henderson

BALvsBOSBatterHits

Small gap

OVER0.5

Projection0.97

Edge−1.3%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 100 games

-229 · draftkings

Tyler O'Neill

BALvsBOSBatterHits

Small gap

OVER0.5

Projection0.68

Edge−1.3%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
SeasonSeason average 0.56 across 59 games

-148 · draftkings

Anthony Seigler

BOSvsBALBatterHits

Small gap

UNDER0.5

Projection0.72

Edge+0.9%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 26 games

+157 · draftkings

Leody Taveras

BALvsBOSBatterHits

Small gap

UNDER0.5

Projection0.63

Edge+0.8%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 83 games

+132 · draftkings

Jeremiah Jackson

BALvsBOSBatterHits

Small gap

UNDER0.5

Projection0.71

Edge−0.6%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 65 games

+145 · draftkings

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BALvsBOSBatterHits

Sample too small

Line0.5

Projection—

Edge—

Sampletoo small to project (2 games of log data)

— · draftkings

Carlos Narvaez

BAL @ BOSBatterHits

Sample too small

Line0.5

Projection—

Edge—

Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)

no recent trend

— · draftkings

Truist Park2 leansFinal · graded

SD@ATL

San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves

first pitch

7:15 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayWalker Buehler

probable · homeReynaldo López

ATL

Strikeouts

Walker Buehler

SDvsATLPitcherStrikeouts

Gap 2.5–5 pp

OVER3.5

Projection3.94

Edge+2.7%

Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
SeasonSeason average 4.3 K across 19 starts

-136 · fanduel

Reynaldo Lopez

SD @ ATLPitcherStrikeouts

Sample too small

Line4.5

Projection—

Edge—

Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)

no recent trend

— · fanduel

Kauffman Stadium0 leans

SF@KC

San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals

first pitch

7:40 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayTyler Mahle

probable · homeLuinder Avila

prop lines pending

Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.

American Family Field0 leans

NYM@MIL

New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers

first pitch

7:40 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayZac Thornton

NYM

probable · homeBrandon Sproat

MIL

prop lines pending

Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.

Wrigley Field0 leans

DET@CHC

Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs

first pitch

8:05 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayFramber Valdez

DET

probable · homeDavid Peterson

CHC

prop lines pending

Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.

Globe Life Field0 leans

CWS@TEX

$TEX logo$

Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers

first pitch

8:05 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayNoah Schultz

CWS

probable · homeKumar Rocker

TEX

prop lines pending

Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.

Daikin Park0 leans

MIA@HOU

Miami Marlins at Houston Astros

first pitch

8:10 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayTyler Phillips

MIA

probable · homeTatsuya Imai

HOU

prop lines pending

Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.

Coors Field0 leans

WSH@COL

Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies

first pitch

8:40 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayMiles Mikolas

WSH

probable · homeMichael Lorenzen

COL

prop lines pending

Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.

Angel Stadium0 leans

STL@LAA

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels

first pitch

9:38 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayMatthew Liberatore

STL

probable · homeWalbert Ureña

LAA

prop lines pending

Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.

Chase Field37 leansFinal · graded

ATH@AZ

Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks

first pitch

9:40 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayJack Perkins

ATH

probable · homeKohl Drake

Strikeouts

Jack Perkins

ATHvsAZPitcherStrikeouts

Small gap

UNDER4.5

Projection4.1

Edge+0.9%

Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
SeasonSeason average 3.0 K across 24 starts

-125 · draftkings

Batter markets · hits + total bases

Colby Thomas

ATHvsAZBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Gap ≥ 5 pp

UNDER1.5

Projection0.68

Edge+13.1%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 45 games

-148 · draftkings

Colby Thomas

ATHvsAZBatterHits

Gap ≥ 5 pp

UNDER0.5

Projection0.33

Edge+12.1%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
SeasonSeason average 0.47 across 45 games

+118 · draftkings

Corbin Carroll

AZvsATHBatterHits

Gap ≥ 5 pp

UNDER0.5

Projection0.66

Edge+8.8%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 96 games

+191 · draftkings

Adrian Del Castillo

AZvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Gap ≥ 5 pp

OVER0.5

Projection1.42

Edge+8.7%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
SeasonSeason average 1.34 across 50 games

-176 · draftkings

Nolan Arenado

AZvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Gap ≥ 5 pp

OVER1.5

Projection2.1

Edge+8.5%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 94 games

-117 · draftkings

Henry Bolte

ATHvsAZBatterHits

Gap ≥ 5 pp

UNDER0.5

Projection0.58

Edge+6.6%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 56 games

+152 · draftkings

Gabriel Moreno

AZvsATHBatterHits

Gap ≥ 5 pp

OVER1.5

Projection1.27

Edge+6.1%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 73 games

+196 · draftkings

Gabriel Moreno

AZvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Gap ≥ 5 pp

OVER1.5

Projection2.25

Edge+5.8%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 73 games

-157 · draftkings

Jacob Wilson

ATHvsAZBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Gap ≥ 5 pp

OVER1.5

Projection2.33

Edge+5.6%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
SeasonSeason average 2.17 across 60 games

-164 · draftkings

Henry Bolte

ATHvsAZBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Gap ≥ 5 pp

UNDER1.5

Projection1.14

Edge+5.4%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
SeasonSeason average 1.48 across 56 games

-121 · draftkings

Tim Tawa

AZvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Gap 2.5–5 pp

OVER1.5

Projection1.72

Edge+3.8%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 37 games

-103 · draftkings

Geraldo Perdomo

AZvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Gap 2.5–5 pp

OVER1.5

Projection1.96

Edge+3.5%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
SeasonSeason average 1.72 across 96 games

-137 · draftkings

Shea Langeliers

ATHvsAZBatterHits

Gap 2.5–5 pp

UNDER1.5

Projection0.93

Edge+3.2%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 90 games

-247 · draftkings

Jacob Wilson

ATHvsAZBatterHits

Gap 2.5–5 pp

OVER1.5

Projection1.34

Edge+2.9%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 60 games

+152 · draftkings

Corbin Carroll

AZvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Gap 2.5–5 pp

UNDER1.5

Projection1.54

Edge+2.7%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
SeasonSeason average 1.99 across 96 games

+115 · draftkings

Tim Tawa

AZvsATHBatterHits

Small gap

OVER0.5

Projection0.77

Edge−3%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
SeasonSeason average 0.54 across 37 games

-190 · draftkings

Ketel Marte

AZvsATHBatterHits

Small gap

UNDER1.5

Projection0.92

Edge+2.4%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 96 games

-250 · draftkings

Alika Williams

ATHvsAZBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Small gap

OVER1.5

Projection1.18

Edge−2.4%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
SeasonSeason average 1.45 across 31 games

+126 · draftkings

Ketel Marte

AZvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Small gap

UNDER1.5

Projection1.9

Edge−2.3%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
SeasonSeason average 2.21 across 96 games

+123 · draftkings

Jonah Heim

ATHvsAZBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Small gap

OVER1.5

Projection1.64

Edge−2.3%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
SeasonSeason average 1.69 across 54 games

-122 · draftkings

Ryan Waldschmidt

AZvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Small gap

OVER1.5

Projection1.28

Edge−2.3%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
SeasonSeason average 1.46 across 37 games

+115 · draftkings

Alika Williams

ATHvsAZBatterHits

Small gap

OVER0.5

Projection0.64

Edge−1.6%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 31 games

-139 · draftkings

Shea Langeliers

ATHvsAZBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Small gap

OVER1.5

Projection1.96

Edge−1.6%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
SeasonSeason average 2.21 across 90 games

-154 · draftkings

Nolan Arenado

AZvsATHBatterHits

Small gap

OVER0.5

Projection0.92

Edge+1.3%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 94 games

-209 · draftkings

Max Kepler

AZvsATHBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Small gap

OVER1.5

Projection1.77

Edge+1.2%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
SeasonSeason average 1.53 across 15 games

-120 · draftkings

Tyler Soderstrom

ATHvsAZBatterHits

Small gap

UNDER0.5

Projection0.84

Edge+1.2%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 88 games

+196 · draftkings

Geraldo Perdomo

AZvsATHBatterHits

Small gap

UNDER0.5

Projection0.82

Edge−1.1%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 96 games

+170 · draftkings

Tyler Soderstrom

ATHvsAZBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Small gap

OVER1.5

Projection1.98

Edge+0.7%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
SeasonSeason average 1.95 across 88 games

-138 · draftkings

Max Kepler

AZvsATHBatterHits

Small gap

UNDER0.5

Projection0.73

Edge−0.7%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 15 games

+150 · draftkings

Ryan Waldschmidt

AZvsATHBatterHits

Small gap

OVER0.5

Projection0.73

Edge+0.7%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 37 games

-150 · draftkings

Adrian Del Castillo

AZvsATHBatterHits

Small gap

OVER0.5

Projection0.65

Edge−0.1%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 50 games

-133 · draftkings

Jonah Heim

ATHvsAZBatterHits

Small gap

UNDER0.5

Projection0.78

Edge+0.1%

Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 54 games

+170 · draftkings

Josh Kuroda-Grauer

ATH @ AZBatterHits

Sample too small

Line0.5

Projection—

Edge—

Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)

no recent trend

— · draftkings

Tommy White

ATHvsAZBatterHits

Sample too small

Line0.5

Projection—

Edge—

Sampletoo small to project (3 games of log data)

— · draftkings

Josh Kuroda-Grauer

ATH @ AZBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Sample too small

Line1.5

Projection—

Edge—

Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)

no recent trend

— · draftkings

Tommy White

ATHvsAZBatterHits + Runs + RBIs

Sample too small

Line1.5

Projection—

Edge—

Sampletoo small to project (3 games of log data)

— · draftkings

T-Mobile Park0 leans

CIN@SEA

Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners

first pitch

9:40 PM ET

Game details · probable pitchers

probable · awayChase Burns

CIN

probable · homeLuis Castillo

SEA

prop lines pending

Lines have not posted yet for this matchup. When books post lines, projections appear here for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and batter total bases.

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