NYG @ HOU
New York Giants at Houston Texans, Sun, Oct 25. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · final
New York Giants at Houston Texans
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was NYG 27 – 21 HOU, from the Week 7 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: NYG 27 – 21 HOU (OT)
The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 25, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
| HOU | 3 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
New York Giants · 27
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 252 | 1Forecast 1 (0–21) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 6.5% |
| Cam Skattebo | 0 | 124Forecast 36 (11–73) · outside range | 1Forecast 1 (0–3.8) · in range | -3Forecast 12 (0–44) · outside range | YesForecast 28.5% |
| Malik Nabers | 0 | 0 | 7Forecast 5.8 (1.9–11.5) · in range | 111Forecast 58 (18–120) · in range | NoForecast 36.4% |
| Malachi Fields | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 1.9 (0–4.8) · in range | 83Forecast 17 (0–57) · outside range | NoForecast 18.3% |
| Devin Singletary | 0 | 41Forecast 10 (0–35) · outside range | 3Forecast 1 (0–2.9) · outside range | 14 | YesForecast 21.3% |
| Thomas Fidone II | 0 | 0 | 1 | 29 | No |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 0 | 15Forecast 7 (0–32) · in range | 1 | 2 | YesForecast 17.5% |
| Isaiah Likely | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 5.8 (1.9–11.5) · in range | 12Forecast 50 (15–100) · outside range | NoForecast 45.7% |
| Darnell Mooney | 0 | 3 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3.8) · in range | 4Forecast 10 (0–42) · in range | NoForecast 13.0% |
| Jameis Winston | 0Forecast 173 (91–293) · outside range | 4Forecast 3 (0–24) · in range | 0 | 0 | YesForecast 6.7% |
| Gunner OlszewskiNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–2.9) | — | —Forecast 9.4% |
| Jalin HyattNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–2.9) | — | —Forecast 9.4% |
| Jaxson DartNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 9 (0–37) | — | — | —Forecast 12.2% |
| Player lines added up | 252 | 188 | 20 | 252 |
22 other New York Giants players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Houston Texans · 21
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 153Forecast 248 (140–401) · in range | 4Forecast 5 (0–29) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 10.7% |
| Woody Marks | 0 | 66Forecast 32 (9–69) · in range | 1Forecast 1.5 (0–2.9) · in range | 15Forecast 7 (0–33) · in range | NoForecast 37.7% |
| Dalton Schultz | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 2.2 (0.7–5.1) · in range | 45Forecast 22 (0–61) · in range | NoForecast 17.4% |
| Tank Dell | 0 | 2 | 1Forecast 2.2 (0.7–5.1) · in range | 43Forecast 8 (0–40) · outside range | NoForecast 25.0% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 12 | 3Forecast 2.2 (0.7–4.4) · in range | 17Forecast 19 (0–60) · in range | YesForecast 18.5% |
| Kayshon Boutte | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1.5 (0–3.7) · in range | 25Forecast 13 (0–46) · in range | NoForecast 14.5% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1.5 (0–3.7) · in range | 6Forecast 10 (0–43) · in range | YesForecast 18.6% |
| Nico Collins | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3.7 (0.7–6.6) · in range | 6Forecast 39 (6–95) · in range | NoForecast 35.5% |
| Cade Stover | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | No |
| Davis MillsNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 6.6% |
| Foster MoreauNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 0.7 (0–2.9) | —Forecast 5 (0–32) | —Forecast 15.5% |
| Jawhar JordanNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 18 (1–54) | — | — | —Forecast 28.3% |
| Jayden HigginsNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2.2 (0.7–4.4) | —Forecast 15 (0–51) | —Forecast 22.1% |
| Jaylin Noel | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1.5 (0–3.7) · in range | -3Forecast 16 (0–61) · outside range | NoForecast 19.9% |
| Player lines added up | 153 | 84 | 17 | 153 |
23 other Houston Texans players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 7 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Reliant Stadium
New York Giants at Houston Texans
New York Giants29.3% to winPregame projection
20–27
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Houston Texans68.0% to winHouston Texans were the projected winner, 68.0% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
HOU +7
8 in 10 outcomes between -10 and +24
Expected total
47
8 in 10 outcomes between 29 and 64
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameNYG 20 — 27 HOUwin chance NYG 29.3% · HOU 68.0%total 47 (29–64)margin +7
NYG
Likely TD scorers
Isaiah Likely 45.7%
Malik Nabers 36.4%
Cam Skattebo 28.5%
Passing
Jameis Winston 173 pass yds (91–293)
Rushing leaders
Cam Skattebo 36 rush yds (11–73)
Devin Singletary 10 rush yds (0–35)
Receiving leaders
Isaiah Likely 5.8 rec · 50 yds
Malik Nabers 5.8 rec · 58 yds
Malachi Fields 1.9 rec · 17 yds
HOU
Likely TD scorers
Woody Marks 37.7%
Nico Collins 35.5%
Jawhar Jordan 28.3%
Passing
C.J. Stroud 248 pass yds (140–401)
Rushing leaders
Woody Marks 32 rush yds (9–69)
Jawhar Jordan 18 rush yds (1–54)
Receiving leaders
Nico Collins 3.7 rec · 39 yds
Tank Dell 2.2 rec · 8 yds
Jayden Higgins 2.2 rec · 15 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (7)
- Jaxson Dart NYG — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Theo Johnson NYG — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Najee Harris NYG — Left the roster: not on NYG's current roster.
- Calvin Austin III NYG — Role not yet observed: no game for NYG yet this season — role at NYG not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 15 games for PIT, 2.3 rec · 25.3 rec yds per game.
- Davis Mills HOU — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- David Montgomery HOU — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Jared Wayne HOU — Left the roster: not on HOU's current roster.
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 25 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | NYG | 5.8 (1.9–11.5) | 50 (15–100) | 45.7% | |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | 5.8 (1.9–11.5) | 58 (18–120) | 36.4% | |
| Nico Collins | HOU | 3.7 (0.7–6.6) | 39 (6–95) | 35.5% | |
| Tank Dell | HOU | 2.2 (0.7–5.1) | 8 (0–40) | 25.0% | |
| Jayden Higgins | HOU | 2.2 (0.7–4.4) | 15 (0–51) | 22.1% | |
| Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | 2.2 (0.7–4.4) | 19 (0–60) | 18.5% | |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | 2.2 (0.7–5.1) | 22 (0–61) | 17.4% | |
| Malachi Fields | NYG | 1.9 (0–4.8) | 17 (0–57) | 18.3% | |
| Woody Marks | HOU | 1.5 (0–2.9) | 7 (0–33) | 37.7% | |
| Jaylin Noel | HOU | 1.5 (0–3.7) | 16 (0–61) | 19.9% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | HOU | 1.5 (0–3.7) | 10 (0–43) | 18.6% | |
| Kayshon Boutte | HOU | 1.5 (0–3.7) | 13 (0–46) | 14.5% | |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | 1 (0–3.8) | 12 (0–44) | 28.5% | |
| Devin Singletary | NYG | 1 (0–2.9) | — | 21.3% | |
| Darnell Mooney | NYG | 1 (0–3.8) | 10 (0–42) | 13.0% | |
| Gunner Olszewski | NYG | 1 (0–2.9) | — | 9.4% | |
| Jalin Hyatt | NYG | 1 (0–2.9) | — | 9.4% | |
| Foster Moreau | HOU | 0.7 (0–2.9) | 5 (0–32) | 15.5% |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (7)
- Jaxson Dart NYG — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Theo Johnson NYG — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Najee Harris NYG — Left the roster: not on NYG's current roster.
- Calvin Austin III NYG — Role not yet observed: no game for NYG yet this season — role at NYG not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 15 games for PIT, 2.3 rec · 25.3 rec yds per game.
- Davis Mills HOU — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- David Montgomery HOU — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Jared Wayne HOU — Left the roster: not on HOU's current roster.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 25 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 45.7% Isaiah Likely · NYG
- 37.7% Woody Marks · HOU
- 36.4% Malik Nabers · NYG
- 35.5% Nico Collins · HOU
- 28.5% Cam Skattebo · NYG
- 28.3% Jawhar Jordan · HOU
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 9a4907e61849ab1a
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (947 graded player-games).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1248 graded player-games).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
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