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NFL · NYG @ HOU · Simulation

New York Giants at Houston Texans

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

31.3%NYG win in the simulated games

68.4%HOU win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.2%game goes to overtime

NYG 20 – 27 HOUmedian score · averages 20.08 – 26.62

46median total · 80% of games 30–64

HOU by 7median margin · 80% range: NYG by 11 to HOU by 24

41.8%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.0% · 6.2%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: HOU points minus NYG points (below 0 means NYG won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (7). Range shown -45 to 57.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (46). Range shown 0 to 104.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
NYG	9	20	32	20.08
HOU	14	27	39	26.62

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	NYG median (80%)	HOU median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	NYG wins it	HOU wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	7 (0–13)	10 (3–17)	33.2%	49.4%	17.4%
Q2	6 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	33.9%	53.6%	12.5%
Q3	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–18)	32.4%	49.7%	17.9%
Q4	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–21)	33.0%	51.1%	15.9%
1st half	10 (3–20)	13 (6–23)	24 (13–36)	33.6%	59.1%	7.3%
2nd half	10 (0–18)	13 (3–21)	22 (10–35)	32.6%	59.3%	8.1%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	NYG	HOU
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	61 (49–74)	64 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (24–42)
Completions	22 (16–30)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	207 (123–304)	227 (141–325)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (17–33)	27 (19–36)
Rushing yards	109 (52–186)	126 (63–208)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
NYG	9.3%	24.6%	30.2%	21.8%	10.5%	3.5%
HOU	2.9%	12.6%	25.1%	27.8%	19.2%	12.4%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

NYG passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jameis Winston QB	34 (25–44)	22 (15–30)	206 (122–303)	1.3	1.0
Gunner Olszewski WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–0)	0 (0–0)	0.0	0.0

NYG rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Cam Skattebo RB	10 (5–15)	39 (11–88)	0.3
Jameis Winston QB	8 (4–12)	32 (8–76)	0.2
Devin Singletary RB	3 (1–6)	11 (0–39)	0.1
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB	3 (1–5)	8 (0–35)	0.1

NYG receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Malik Nabers WR	8 (5–13)	6 (3–9)	51 (14–107)	0.3
Isaiah Likely TE	8 (5–13)	5 (3–9)	44 (11–96)	0.3
Malachi Fields WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	14 (0–51)	0.1
Cam Skattebo RB	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–43)	0.1
Darnell Mooney WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–40)	0.1
Devin Singletary RB	1 (0–3)	1 (0–3)	4 (0–30)	0.1

HOU passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
C.J. Stroud QB	33 (24–42)	23 (16–30)	227 (141–325)	1.9	0.6

HOU rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Woody Marks RB	11 (7–17)	46 (15–97)	0.5
Jawhar Jordan RB	6 (3–10)	26 (5–66)	0.2
C.J. Stroud QB	6 (3–9)	24 (5–62)	0.2
British Brooks RB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–14)	0.0

HOU receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Nico Collins WR	5 (2–9)	3 (1–6)	35 (6–83)	0.3
Dalton Schultz TE	4 (1–7)	3 (1–5)	20 (1–60)	0.2
Xavier Hutchinson WR	4 (1–7)	2 (1–4)	19 (0–59)	0.2
Jaylin Noel WR	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–52)	0.1
Jayden Higgins WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	14 (0–51)	0.2
Kayshon Boutte WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–47)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Woody Marks RB	HOU	44.7%	10.8%	11.5%
Cam Skattebo RB	NYG	36.4%	6.7%	8.5%
Malik Nabers WR	NYG	29.4%	4.4%	6.9%
Isaiah Likely TE	NYG	27.7%	3.9%	5.7%
Nico Collins WR	HOU	27.5%	3.6%	6.1%
Jawhar Jordan RB	HOU	25.6%	3.2%	6.2%
Xavier Hutchinson WR	HOU	21.2%	2.2%	4.7%
Jameis Winston QB	NYG	19.9%	1.7%	4.0%
Dalton Schultz TE	HOU	18.9%	2.0%	4.0%
Devin Singletary RB	NYG	17.0%	1.3%	3.6%
C.J. Stroud QB	HOU	16.7%	1.3%	3.8%
Jayden Higgins WR	HOU	16.2%	1.4%	3.8%
Jaylin Noel WR	HOU	15.9%	1.1%	3.4%
Kayshon Boutte WR	HOU	14.1%	0.9%	3.3%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB	NYG	13.5%	0.9%	2.8%
Malachi Fields WR	NYG	12.9%	0.7%	2.5%

First touchdown by team: NYG 40.0% · HOU 59.7% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: NYG 20 – 26 HOU

By quarter: NYG 0 / 7 / 3 / 10 · HOU 3 / 7 / 7 / 9

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NYG–HOU)
1	NYG	72	punt	3	3	0–0
1	HOU	63	fg	11	30	0–3
1	NYG	85	punt	3	0	0–3
1	HOU	63	turnover	2	61	0–3
1	NYG	92	punt	9	7	0–3
2	HOU	42	td	10	42	0–10
2	NYG	68	punt	3	16	0–10
2	HOU	91	punt	3	16	0–10
2	NYG	63	td	15	63	7–10
2	HOU	65	punt	3	17	7–10
2	NYG	99	end half	3	13	7–10
2	HOU	65	punt	6	16	7–10
3	NYG	97	punt	5	3	7–10
3	HOU	47	td	9	47	7–17
3	NYG	65	fg	9	64	10–17
3	HOU	65	punt	4	5	10–17
3	NYG	78	punt	3	5	10–17
4	HOU	67	fg	5	46	10–20
4	NYG	70	turnover	5	53	10–20
4	HOU	81	fg	6	60	10–23
4	NYG	71	td	7	71	17–23
4	HOU	66	fg	3	40	17–26
4	NYG	74	fg	4	25	20–26

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: NYG 28 – 36 HOU

By quarter: NYG 7 / 0 / 6 / 15 · HOU 7 / 10 / 7 / 12

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NYG–HOU)
1	HOU	72	fg miss	4	54	0–0
1	NYG	74	punt	3	0	0–0
1	HOU	81	td	3	81	0–7
1	NYG	65	td	11	65	7–7
1	HOU	73	punt	3	10	7–7
1	NYG	72	punt	8	7	7–7
1	HOU	28	fg	4	15	7–10
2	NYG	67	punt	8	24	7–10
2	HOU	99	td	9	99	7–17
2	NYG	75	punt	3	16	7–17
2	HOU	79	punt	9	19	7–17
2	NYG	63	punt	7	0	7–17
2	HOU	86	end half	2	25	7–17
2	NYG	65	fg	3	55	10–17
3	HOU	73	punt	3	17	10–17
3	NYG	84	punt	3	0	10–17
3	HOU	54	td	11	54	10–24
3	NYG	60	fg	3	38	13–24
3	HOU	86	punt	3	24	13–24
3	NYG	99	punt	3	49	13–24
3	HOU	99	td	5	99	13–30
4	NYG	75	turnover	4	28	13–30
4	HOU	68	fg	4	59	13–33
4	NYG	65	td	7	65	20–33
4	HOU	69	fg	6	66	20–36
4	NYG	70	td	9	70	28–36
4	HOU	67	end half	3	8	28–36

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: NYG 12 – 18 HOU

By quarter: NYG 3 / 0 / 3 / 6 · HOU 3 / 6 / 3 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NYG–HOU)
1	HOU	55	fg	10	19	0–3
1	NYG	74	downs	8	39	0–3
1	HOU	55	punt	8	2	0–3
1	NYG	69	fg	5	18	3–3
1	HOU	65	fg	10	42	3–6
2	NYG	65	punt	6	7	3–6
2	HOU	76	fg	10	75	3–9
2	NYG	69	punt	6	4	3–9
2	HOU	67	fg miss	4	57	3–9
2	NYG	82	end half	2	77	3–9
2	NYG	72	punt	3	26	3–9
3	HOU	99	punt	6	2	3–9
3	NYG	53	punt	3	22	3–9
3	HOU	99	fg	6	62	3–12
3	NYG	76	fg	5	60	6–12
3	HOU	72	td	7	72	6–18
4	NYG	70	punt	3	-6	6–18
4	HOU	72	punt	10	3	6–18
4	NYG	69	td	6	69	12–18
4	HOU	66	punt	3	15	12–18
4	NYG	94	punt	8	2	12–18
4	HOU	48	end half	1	9	12–18

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 24, 6:57 PM ET · before kickoff Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
Seed	d4163390 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 47 / margin.median 7 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means HOU 26.93 / NYG 20.05
Availability	injuries as of Oct 24, 6:55 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 24, 6:55 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873016:fe1653214346835d

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.