MIA @ NYJ
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, Sun, Oct 25. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · final
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was MIA 28 – 25 NYJ, from the Week 7 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: MIA 28 – 25 NYJ
The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 25, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 28 |
| NYJ | 7 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 25 |
Miami Dolphins · 28
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 208Forecast 187 (97–323) · in range | 37Forecast 17 (0–54) · in range | 0 | 0 | YesForecast 22.0% |
| Ollie Gordon II | 0 | 103Forecast 33 (8–74) · outside range | 1 | 0 | YesForecast 37.8% |
| Greg Dulcich | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 1.9 (0–5.6) · in range | 86Forecast 25 (0–66) · outside range | NoForecast 12.0% |
| Caleb Douglas | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2.8 (0.9–7.5) · in range | 70Forecast 28 (2–74) · in range | YesForecast 17.9% |
| Malik Washington | 0 | 8 | 3Forecast 4.7 (0.9–9.3) · in range | 27Forecast 42 (10–93) · in range | NoForecast 24.3% |
| Chris Bell | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 1.9 (0–3.7) · in range | 25Forecast 14 (0–51) · in range | NoForecast 11.9% |
| Jaylen Wright | 0 | 8Forecast 9 (0–33) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 14.1% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1.9 (0–4.7) · in range | 0Forecast 20 (0–57) · in range | NoForecast 17.6% |
| De'Von AchaneNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 40 (11–86) | —Forecast 2.8 (0–5.6) | —Forecast 19 (0–54) | —Forecast 40.3% |
| DJ HermanNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | —Forecast 11 (0–43) | — |
| Will KacmarekNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 0.9 (0–2.8) | —Forecast 6 (0–35) | —Forecast 6.5% |
| Player lines added up | 208 | 156 | 14 | 208 |
20 other Miami Dolphins players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
New York Jets · 25
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 287Forecast 216 (117–358) · in range | 0Forecast 3 (0–20) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 6.2% |
| Braelon Allen | 0 | 104Forecast 40 (13–81) · outside range | 6Forecast 0.8 (0–3.2) · outside range | 30Forecast 6 (0–33) · in range | NoForecast 36.6% |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 2.4 (0.8–5.7) · in range | 115Forecast 19 (0–62) · outside range | YesForecast 20.4% |
| Mason Taylor | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 1.6 (0–4.9) · outside range | 62Forecast 17 (0–50) · outside range | YesForecast 14.1% |
| Isaiah Davis | 0 | 5Forecast 2 (0–23) · in range | 3 | 49 | NoForecast 9.4% |
| Garrett Wilson | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 4.1 (1.6–8.9) · in range | 26Forecast 44 (10–95) · in range | NoForecast 34.9% |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2.4 (0–4.9) · in range | 6Forecast 16 (0–53) · in range | NoForecast 18.1% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 3.2 (0.8–6.5) · outside range | 0Forecast 27 (2–71) · outside range | NoForecast 23.7% |
| Isaiah Williams | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1.6 (0–3.2) · in range | 0Forecast 9 (0–41) · in range | NoForecast 12.8% |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 7 (0–35) · in range | No |
| Andrew Beck | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Jelani Woods | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | No |
| Tim PatrickNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1.6 (0–3.2) | —Forecast 8 (0–38) | —Forecast 12.9% |
| Player lines added up | 287 | 108 | 23 | 287 |
22 other New York Jets players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 7 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Miami Dolphins42.4% to winPregame projection
20–22
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
New York Jets54.6% to winNew York Jets were the projected winner, 54.6% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
NYJ +1
8 in 10 outcomes between -16 and +17
Expected total
42
8 in 10 outcomes between 25 and 59
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameMIA 20 — 22 NYJwin chance MIA 42.4% · NYJ 54.6%total 42 (25–59)margin +1
MIA
Likely TD scorers
De'Von Achane 40.3%
Ollie Gordon II 37.8%
Malik Washington 24.3%
Passing
Malik Willis 187 pass yds (97–323)
Rushing leaders
De'Von Achane 40 rush yds (11–86)
Ollie Gordon II 33 rush yds (8–74)
Receiving leaders
Malik Washington 4.7 rec · 42 yds
De'Von Achane 2.8 rec · 19 yds
Caleb Douglas 2.8 rec · 28 yds
NYJ
Likely TD scorers
Braelon Allen 36.6%
Garrett Wilson 34.9%
Adonai Mitchell 23.7%
Passing
Geno Smith 216 pass yds (117–358)
Rushing leaders
Braelon Allen 40 rush yds (13–81)
Geno Smith 3 rush yds (0–20)
Receiving leaders
Garrett Wilson 4.1 rec · 44 yds
Adonai Mitchell 3.2 rec · 27 yds
Omar Cooper Jr. 2.4 rec · 19 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (3)
- Brady Cook MIA — Role not yet observed: no game for MIA yet this season — role at MIA not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 8 games for NYJ, 7.1 rush yds · 121.8 pass yds per game.
- Breece Hall NYJ — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Will Levis NYJ — Role not yet observed: no game for NYJ yet this season — role at NYJ not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 14 games for TEN, 13.3 rush yds · 160.3 pass yds per game.
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 22 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Washington | MIA | 4.7 (0.9–9.3) | 42 (10–93) | 24.3% | |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 4.1 (1.6–8.9) | 44 (10–95) | 34.9% | |
| Adonai Mitchell | NYJ | 3.2 (0.8–6.5) | 27 (2–71) | 23.7% | |
| De'Von Achane | MIA | 2.8 (0–5.6) | 19 (0–54) | 40.3% | |
| Caleb Douglas | MIA | 2.8 (0.9–7.5) | 28 (2–74) | 17.9% | |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | NYJ | 2.4 (0.8–5.7) | 19 (0–62) | 20.4% | |
| Kenyon Sadiq | NYJ | 2.4 (0–4.9) | 16 (0–53) | 18.1% | |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | MIA | 1.9 (0–4.7) | 20 (0–57) | 17.6% | |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | 1.9 (0–5.6) | 25 (0–66) | 12.0% | |
| Chris Bell | MIA | 1.9 (0–3.7) | 14 (0–51) | 11.9% | |
| Mason Taylor | NYJ | 1.6 (0–4.9) | 17 (0–50) | 14.1% | |
| Tim Patrick | NYJ | 1.6 (0–3.2) | 8 (0–38) | 12.9% | |
| Isaiah Williams | NYJ | 1.6 (0–3.2) | 9 (0–41) | 12.8% | |
| Will Kacmarek | MIA | 0.9 (0–2.8) | 6 (0–35) | 6.5% | |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | 0.8 (0–3.2) | 6 (0–33) | 36.6% | |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | — | 7 (0–35) | — | |
| DJ Herman | MIA | — | 11 (0–43) | — |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (3)
- Brady Cook MIA — Role not yet observed: no game for MIA yet this season — role at MIA not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 8 games for NYJ, 7.1 rush yds · 121.8 pass yds per game.
- Breece Hall NYJ — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Will Levis NYJ — Role not yet observed: no game for NYJ yet this season — role at NYJ not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 14 games for TEN, 13.3 rush yds · 160.3 pass yds per game.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 20 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 40.3% De'Von Achane · MIA
- 37.8% Ollie Gordon II · MIA
- 36.6% Braelon Allen · NYJ
- 34.9% Garrett Wilson · NYJ
- 24.3% Malik Washington · MIA
- 23.7% Adonai Mitchell · NYJ
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 2d81977d7618b098
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (947 graded player-games).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1248 graded player-games).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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