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NFL · MIA @ NYJ · Simulation

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

48.9%MIA win in the simulated games

50.8%NYJ win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.3%game goes to overtime

MIA 21 – 21 NYJmedian score · averages 21.34 – 21.67

43median total · 80% of games 27–59

NYJ by 1median margin · 80% range: MIA by 17 to NYJ by 18

45.2%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.6% · 7.0%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: NYJ points minus MIA points (below 0 means MIA won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (1). Range shown -54 to 48.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (43). Range shown 4 to 104.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
MIA	10	21	34	21.34
NYJ	10	21	34	21.67

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	MIA median (80%)	NYJ median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	MIA wins it	NYJ wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	9 (3–17)	40.2%	40.7%	19.1%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–21)	43.1%	43.6%	13.3%
Q3	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	9 (3–17)	39.7%	41.5%	18.8%
Q4	6 (0–13)	6 (0–14)	10 (3–21)	40.8%	42.0%	17.1%
1st half	10 (3–20)	10 (3–20)	22 (11–34)	46.2%	47.2%	6.6%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	10 (3–20)	20 (10–33)	44.4%	46.7%	8.8%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	MIA	NYJ
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	62 (50–75)
Pass attempts	33 (25–43)	33 (25–43)
Completions	22 (15–29)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	195 (117–289)	207 (125–302)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (18–35)	25 (17–35)
Rushing yards	122 (61–203)	110 (53–190)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
MIA	8.1%	23.6%	31.1%	22.4%	10.7%	4.2%
NYJ	7.4%	23.0%	30.6%	22.7%	11.7%	4.5%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

MIA passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Malik Willis QB	29 (21–39)	19 (13–26)	172 (98–259)	1.2	0.8

MIA rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
De'Von Achane RB	9 (5–13)	37 (11–84)	0.3
Ollie Gordon II RB	7 (4–11)	30 (7–74)	0.3
Malik Willis QB	5 (2–8)	24 (4–62)	0.1
Jaylen Wright RB	3 (1–6)	9 (0–35)	0.1

MIA receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Malik Washington WR	7 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	36 (7–82)	0.3
Caleb Douglas WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	22 (1–63)	0.2
Greg Dulcich TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	20 (0–60)	0.1
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	4 (2–8)	2 (1–5)	16 (0–54)	0.2
De'Von Achane RB	4 (1–7)	2 (1–5)	16 (0–51)	0.1
Chris Bell WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–3)	10 (0–43)	0.1

NYJ passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Geno Smith QB	30 (22–39)	20 (14–27)	184 (107–274)	1.3	0.8

NYJ rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Breece Hall RB	10 (6–16)	39 (12–89)	0.3
Braelon Allen RB	9 (5–14)	39 (11–87)	0.3
Geno Smith QB	3 (1–6)	11 (0–38)	0.1
Isaiah Davis RB	1 (0–3)	3 (0–21)	0.1

NYJ receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Garrett Wilson WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	36 (7–84)	0.3
Adonai Mitchell WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–5)	23 (1–64)	0.2
Omar Cooper Jr. WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–51)	0.1
Mason Taylor TE	3 (1–6)	2 (1–4)	14 (0–48)	0.1
Kenyon Sadiq TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–48)	0.1
Breece Hall RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–38)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Breece Hall RB	NYJ	36.3%	7.0%	10.0%
De'Von Achane RB	MIA	36.1%	7.1%	10.5%
Braelon Allen RB	NYJ	33.8%	5.7%	9.0%
Malik Washington WR	MIA	27.1%	3.6%	7.2%
Ollie Gordon II RB	MIA	25.6%	3.6%	6.4%
Garrett Wilson WR	NYJ	23.8%	2.9%	6.0%
Adonai Mitchell WR	NYJ	19.1%	1.4%	4.8%
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	MIA	17.8%	1.5%	3.9%
Caleb Douglas WR	MIA	16.3%	1.3%	4.4%
Greg Dulcich TE	MIA	14.5%	0.8%	3.7%
Mason Taylor TE	NYJ	13.5%	0.8%	3.4%
Kenyon Sadiq TE	NYJ	13.0%	0.8%	3.0%
Chris Bell WR	MIA	12.6%	0.7%	3.1%
Omar Cooper Jr. WR	NYJ	11.7%	0.5%	2.3%
Malik Willis QB	MIA	11.5%	0.6%	2.6%
Jaylen Wright RB	MIA	11.0%	0.6%	2.6%

First touchdown by team: MIA 49.6% · NYJ 49.9% · no offensive touchdown 0.5%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: MIA 21 – 22 NYJ

By quarter: MIA 7 / 7 / 0 / 7 · NYJ 3 / 6 / 7 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (MIA–NYJ)
1	MIA	75	punt	3	19	0–0
1	NYJ	88	punt	6	22	0–0
1	MIA	62	td	6	62	7–0
1	NYJ	76	fg	3	63	7–3
1	MIA	71	td	11	71	14–3
2	NYJ	80	punt	3	7	14–3
2	MIA	71	punt	4	7	14–3
2	NYJ	75	punt	6	17	14–3
2	MIA	97	punt	3	29	14–3
2	NYJ	63	td	10	63	14–9
2	MIA	74	end half	3	10	14–9
2	NYJ	58	td	15	58	14–16
3	MIA	80	fg miss	9	54	14–16
3	NYJ	66	turnover	2	65	14–16
3	MIA	99	punt	6	22	14–16
3	NYJ	66	punt	3	12	14–16
3	MIA	74	td	5	74	21–16
4	NYJ	78	fg	10	42	21–19
4	MIA	65	fg miss	5	43	21–19
4	NYJ	70	fg	7	55	21–22
4	MIA	65	end half	8	-1	21–22

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: MIA 29 – 30 NYJ

By quarter: MIA 7 / 14 / 5 / 3 · NYJ 3 / 7 / 6 / 14

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (MIA–NYJ)
1	NYJ	90	fg	6	71	0–3
1	MIA	80	punt	3	0	0–3
1	NYJ	53	turnover	2	7	0–3
1	MIA	24	td	4	24	7–3
1	NYJ	85	turnover	2	34	7–3
1	MIA	45	punt	3	3	7–3
1	NYJ	99	turnover	5	0	7–3
1	MIA	1	turnover	12	0	7–3
2	NYJ	99	punt	3	4	7–3
2	MIA	52	downs	4	51	7–3
2	NYJ	98	turnover	1	0	7–3
2	MIA	2	td	10	2	14–3
2	NYJ	77	td	2	77	14–10
2	MIA	65	td	8	65	21–10
2	MIA	65	punt	3	13	21–10
3	NYJ	99	safety	1	-1	23–10
3	MIA	57	fg	3	25	26–10
3	NYJ	45	td	11	45	26–16
3	MIA	74	fg	11	61	29–16
4	NYJ	70	td	4	70	29–23
4	MIA	74	punt	3	8	29–23
4	NYJ	69	punt	4	7	29–23
4	MIA	70	punt	3	3	29–23
4	NYJ	62	td	9	62	29–30
4	MIA	69	end half	13	36	29–30

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: MIA 13 – 14 NYJ

By quarter: MIA 0 / 7 / 3 / 3 · NYJ 8 / 3 / 0 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (MIA–NYJ)
1	NYJ	69	punt	5	30	0–0
1	MIA	99	punt	3	6	0–0
1	NYJ	4	td	3	4	0–8
1	MIA	87	punt	3	13	0–8
1	NYJ	94	punt	6	22	0–8
1	MIA	89	punt	5	7	0–8
1	NYJ	46	fg	9	21	0–11
2	MIA	57	downs	9	30	0–11
2	NYJ	73	punt	3	1	0–11
2	MIA	65	td	9	65	7–11
2	NYJ	81	end half	3	-1	7–11
2	MIA	79	turnover	6	50	7–11
3	NYJ	99	punt	3	36	7–11
3	MIA	87	punt	4	-5	7–11
3	NYJ	36	fg miss	4	1	7–11
3	MIA	57	fg	3	41	10–11
3	NYJ	67	fg	13	46	10–14
4	MIA	75	turnover	3	61	10–14
4	NYJ	91	punt	3	21	10–14
4	MIA	86	punt	3	25	10–14
4	NYJ	82	fg miss	6	59	10–14
4	MIA	69	fg	9	55	13–14
4	NYJ	66	end half	3	-1	13–14

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 21, 11:36 AM ET · before kickoff Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
Seed	8ece3173 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 42 / margin.median 1 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means NYJ 21.51 / MIA 20.54
Availability	injuries as of Oct 21, 10:30 AM ET · rosters as of Oct 21, 10:30 AM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873015:94acd2fe3a64a99e

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.