CLE @ TEN
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans, Sun, Oct 25. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · final
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was CLE 27 – 24 TEN, from the Week 7 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: CLE 27 – 24 TEN
The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 25, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 7 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 27 |
| TEN | 14 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
Cleveland Browns · 27
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 308Forecast 195 (105–327) · in range | 19Forecast 15 (1–47) · in range | 0 | 0 | YesForecast 13.2% |
| KC Concepcion | 0 | 23 | 8Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 129Forecast 29 (5–70) · outside range | NoForecast 20.5% |
| Quinshon Judkins | 0 | 96Forecast 30 (9–62) · outside range | 1Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 8Forecast 19 (0–53) · in range | YesForecast 37.2% |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 0 | 0 | 6Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 91Forecast 26 (2–66) · outside range | NoForecast 24.8% |
| Dylan Sampson | 0 | 45Forecast 3 (0–22) · outside range | 3Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 32 | NoForecast 14.0% |
| Denzel Boston | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 27Forecast 37 (4–92) · in range | NoForecast 26.4% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 21Forecast 25 (0–67) · in range | NoForecast 13.8% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 0 | 0Forecast 3 (0–27) · in range | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 6 (0–34) · in range | NoForecast 13.5% |
| Isaiah BondNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 13 (0–51) | —Forecast 6.8% |
| Shedeur SandersNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 4.2% |
| Player lines added up | 308 | 183 | 25 | 308 |
20 other Cleveland Browns players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Tennessee Titans · 24
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 181Forecast 173 (92–290) · in range | 5Forecast 7 (0–33) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 10.1% |
| Tony Pollard | 0 | 129Forecast 66 (29–117) · outside range | 3Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 26Forecast 7 (0–34) · in range | YesForecast 33.3% |
| Carnell Tate | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 5 (2–11) · in range | 69Forecast 55 (16–111) · in range | NoForecast 25.0% |
| Elic Ayomanor | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 44Forecast 14 (0–52) · in range | NoForecast 11.0% |
| Gunnar Helm | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 24Forecast 12 (0–42) · in range | NoForecast 7.0% |
| Michael Carter | 0 | 7 | 1 | 7 | No |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 7Forecast 36 (8–80) · outside range | NoForecast 23.2% |
| Daniel Bellinger | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 4Forecast 5 (0–31) · in range | NoForecast 6.5% |
| Chimere Dike | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0 | NoForecast 5.9% |
| Player lines added up | 181 | 141 | 20 | 181 |
23 other Tennessee Titans players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 7 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns61.5% to winPregame projection
20–18
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Tennessee Titans35.5% to winCleveland Browns were the projected winner, 61.5% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
TEN -3
8 in 10 outcomes between -19 and +14
Expected total
38
8 in 10 outcomes between 21 and 55
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameCLE 20 — 18 TENwin chance CLE 61.5% · TEN 35.5%total 38 (21–55)margin -3
CLE
Likely TD scorers
Quinshon Judkins 37.2%
Denzel Boston 26.4%
Harold Fannin Jr. 24.8%
Passing
Deshaun Watson 195 pass yds (105–327)
Rushing leaders
Quinshon Judkins 30 rush yds (9–62)
Deshaun Watson 15 rush yds (1–47)
Receiving leaders
KC Concepcion 4 rec · 29 yds
Quinshon Judkins 3 rec · 19 yds
Denzel Boston 3 rec · 37 yds
TEN
Likely TD scorers
Tony Pollard 33.3%
Carnell Tate 25.0%
Wan'Dale Robinson 23.2%
Passing
Cam Ward 173 pass yds (92–290)
Rushing leaders
Tony Pollard 66 rush yds (29–117)
Cam Ward 7 rush yds (0–33)
Receiving leaders
Carnell Tate 5 rec · 55 yds
Wan'Dale Robinson 4 rec · 36 yds
Tony Pollard 1 rec · 7 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (8)
- Shedeur Sanders CLE — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Audric Estime CLE — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Raheim Sanders CLE — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Dillon Gabriel CLE — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Tyjae Spears TEN — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Nicholas Singleton TEN — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Calvin Ridley TEN — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Michael Carter TEN — Role not yet observed: no game for TEN yet this season — role at TEN not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 16 games for ARI, 2.4 rec · 17.5 rec yds · 25.6 rush yds per game.
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 18 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnell Tate | TEN | 5 (2–11) | 55 (16–111) | 25.0% | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | 4 (1–9) | 36 (8–80) | 23.2% | |
| KC Concepcion | CLE | 4 (1–8) | 29 (5–70) | 20.5% | |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | 3 (1–6) | 19 (0–53) | 37.2% | |
| Denzel Boston | CLE | 3 (1–7) | 37 (4–92) | 26.4% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | 3 (1–7) | 26 (2–66) | 24.8% | |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE | 2 (0–5) | 25 (0–67) | 13.8% | |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | 1 (0–3) | 7 (0–34) | 33.3% | |
| Dylan Sampson | CLE | 1 (0–3) | — | 14.0% | |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | CLE | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–34) | 13.5% | |
| Elic Ayomanor | TEN | 1 (0–4) | 14 (0–52) | 11.0% | |
| Gunnar Helm | TEN | 1 (0–3) | 12 (0–42) | 7.0% | |
| Isaiah Bond | CLE | 1 (0–3) | 13 (0–51) | 6.8% | |
| Daniel Bellinger | TEN | 1 (0–3) | 5 (0–31) | 6.5% | |
| Chimere Dike | TEN | 1 (0–3) | — | 5.9% |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (8)
- Shedeur Sanders CLE — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Audric Estime CLE — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Raheim Sanders CLE — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Dillon Gabriel CLE — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Tyjae Spears TEN — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Nicholas Singleton TEN — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Calvin Ridley TEN — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Michael Carter TEN — Role not yet observed: no game for TEN yet this season — role at TEN not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 16 games for ARI, 2.4 rec · 17.5 rec yds · 25.6 rush yds per game.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 18 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 37.2% Quinshon Judkins · CLE
- 33.3% Tony Pollard · TEN
- 26.4% Denzel Boston · CLE
- 25.0% Carnell Tate · TEN
- 24.8% Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE
- 23.2% Wan'Dale Robinson · TEN
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- c57b12dfcea446a6
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (947 graded player-games).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1248 graded player-games).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
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- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
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- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET