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NFL · CLE @ TEN · Simulation

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

60.3%CLE win in the simulated games

39.1%TEN win in the simulated games

0.5%tie after overtime

3.5%game goes to overtime

CLE 20 – 16 TENmedian score · averages 20.57 – 16.9

37median total · 80% of games 23–53

CLE by 4median margin · 80% range: CLE by 21 to TEN by 14

43.8%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

9.1% · 6.8%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: TEN points minus CLE points (below 0 means CLE won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-4). Range shown -54 to 45.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (37). Range shown 0 to 88.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
CLE	9	20	33	20.57
TEN	6	16	29	16.9

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	CLE median (80%)	TEN median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	CLE wins it	TEN wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	7 (0–16)	44.6%	35.3%	20.1%
Q2	7 (0–14)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–20)	48.9%	36.7%	14.5%
Q3	3 (0–10)	3 (0–9)	7 (0–15)	44.7%	34.4%	20.9%
Q4	6 (0–13)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–17)	46.1%	35.4%	18.5%
1st half	10 (3–20)	7 (0–17)	19 (9–31)	53.8%	38.8%	7.4%
2nd half	10 (0–17)	7 (0–16)	17 (7–29)	52.9%	38.2%	8.9%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	CLE	TEN
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	63 (50–76)	62 (50–74)
Pass attempts	33 (24–43)	34 (25–44)
Completions	21 (15–28)	22 (15–29)
Passing yards	189 (111–281)	179 (104–272)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	1 (0–2)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–3)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	26 (18–35)	25 (17–34)
Rushing yards	112 (54–189)	104 (50–181)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
CLE	10.5%	26.5%	31.3%	20.9%	8.1%	2.8%
TEN	17.6%	33.1%	28.9%	14.5%	4.8%	1.1%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

CLE passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Deshaun Watson QB	33 (24–43)	21 (15–28)	189 (111–281)	1.3	1.0

CLE rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Quinshon Judkins RB	10 (6–15)	36 (10–82)	0.3
Deshaun Watson QB	7 (4–11)	30 (7–72)	0.2
Audric Estime RB	4 (2–7)	12 (0–41)	0.1
Jaleel McLaughlin RB	2 (0–4)	5 (0–27)	0.1

CLE receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Denzel Boston WR	5 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	27 (3–73)	0.2
KC Concepcion WR	5 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	25 (3–69)	0.2
Harold Fannin Jr. TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	21 (2–62)	0.2
Jerry Jeudy WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	20 (0–60)	0.2
Quinshon Judkins RB	4 (1–6)	3 (1–5)	16 (0–52)	0.1
Isaiah Bond WR	3 (1–5)	1 (0–4)	10 (0–45)	0.1

TEN passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Cam Ward QB	30 (22–39)	19 (13–26)	158 (88–245)	0.9	1.1

TEN rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Tony Pollard RB	14 (9–21)	59 (22–117)	0.4
Cam Ward QB	4 (2–7)	14 (1–44)	0.1
Tyjae Spears RB	3 (1–5)	7 (0–32)	0.1
Nicholas Singleton RB	2 (0–4)	5 (0–26)	0.1

TEN receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Carnell Tate WR	8 (5–13)	5 (3–9)	42 (11–94)	0.2
Wan'Dale Robinson WR	7 (3–11)	4 (2–7)	31 (6–74)	0.2
Tyjae Spears RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	12 (0–43)	0.1
Elic Ayomanor WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–42)	0.1
Calvin Ridley WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–40)	0.1
Gunnar Helm TE	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	8 (0–38)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Quinshon Judkins RB	CLE	37.3%	6.7%	12.2%
Tony Pollard RB	TEN	35.9%	6.4%	11.8%
KC Concepcion WR	CLE	22.0%	2.3%	6.8%
Carnell Tate WR	TEN	21.7%	2.3%	6.4%
Denzel Boston WR	CLE	19.4%	1.7%	5.6%
Wan'Dale Robinson WR	TEN	19.0%	1.9%	5.6%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE	CLE	16.6%	1.4%	5.1%
Tyjae Spears RB	TEN	15.9%	1.2%	4.8%
Deshaun Watson QB	CLE	15.9%	1.0%	4.6%
Jerry Jeudy WR	CLE	15.5%	1.2%	4.6%
Jaleel McLaughlin RB	CLE	11.8%	0.5%	3.7%
Audric Estime RB	CLE	11.1%	0.4%	3.1%
Dylan Sampson RB	CLE	10.8%	0.5%	3.1%
Isaiah Bond WR	CLE	10.1%	0.5%	3.2%
Elic Ayomanor WR	TEN	8.6%	0.3%	2.4%
Calvin Ridley WR	TEN	7.7%	0.3%	2.0%

First touchdown by team: CLE 54.8% · TEN 43.3% · no offensive touchdown 1.9%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: CLE 20 – 17 TEN

By quarter: CLE 14 / 3 / 3 / 0 · TEN 7 / 3 / 7 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CLE–TEN)
1	CLE	74	turnover	4	25	0–0
1	TEN	56	turnover	2	13	0–0
1	CLE	53	td	14	53	7–0
1	TEN	70	td	1	70	7–7
1	CLE	74	td	3	74	14–7
1	TEN	57	fg miss	10	44	14–7
2	CLE	81	punt	3	18	14–7
2	TEN	74	fg	12	73	14–10
2	CLE	77	fg	8	63	17–10
2	TEN	65	end half	1	5	17–10
2	TEN	73	punt	4	3	17–10
3	CLE	99	fg	8	80	20–10
3	TEN	86	td	3	86	20–17
3	CLE	86	punt	7	0	20–17
3	TEN	54	punt	3	5	20–17
3	CLE	97	punt	3	20	20–17
3	TEN	57	punt	3	16	20–17
3	CLE	94	punt	6	29	20–17
4	TEN	79	punt	3	13	20–17
4	CLE	87	fg miss	7	58	20–17
4	TEN	63	downs	5	62	20–17
4	CLE	99	downs	7	38	20–17
4	TEN	39	end half	8	11	20–17

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: CLE 29 – 24 TEN

By quarter: CLE 0 / 12 / 14 / 3 · TEN 7 / 7 / 3 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CLE–TEN)
1	TEN	65	td	14	65	0–7
1	CLE	65	punt	11	-4	0–7
1	TEN	59	downs	5	44	0–7
2	CLE	85	td	4	85	6–7
2	TEN	65	punt	3	4	6–7
2	CLE	55	downs	5	54	6–7
2	TEN	99	punt	3	2	6–7
2	CLE	40	fg	9	24	9–7
2	TEN	45	td	5	45	9–14
2	CLE	79	fg	8	62	12–14
2	CLE	70	td	4	70	19–14
3	TEN	62	fg	3	57	19–17
3	CLE	72	punt	3	27	19–17
3	TEN	93	turnover	4	19	19–17
3	CLE	30	td	10	30	26–17
3	TEN	70	downs	5	50	26–17
3	CLE	84	punt	7	11	26–17
4	TEN	76	turnover	3	0	26–17
4	CLE	45	fg	3	29	29–17
4	TEN	68	downs	5	41	29–17
4	CLE	73	punt	5	12	29–17
4	TEN	95	td	4	95	29–24
4	CLE	81	punt	5	25	29–24
4	TEN	86	turnover	4	10	29–24
4	CLE	54	end half	1	-1	29–24

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: CLE 13 – 10 TEN

By quarter: CLE 3 / 0 / 7 / 3 · TEN 3 / 7 / 0 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CLE–TEN)
1	TEN	66	punt	3	3	0–0
1	CLE	51	fg	8	27	3–0
1	TEN	75	fg	7	38	3–3
1	CLE	65	punt	4	19	3–3
1	TEN	97	punt	3	5	3–3
1	CLE	47	turnover	10	17	3–3
2	TEN	70	td	9	70	3–10
2	CLE	71	downs	10	22	3–10
2	TEN	51	punt	3	4	3–10
2	CLE	86	downs	5	48	3–10
2	TEN	62	end half	3	12	3–10
2	CLE	68	td	10	68	10–10
3	TEN	65	punt	5	7	10–10
3	CLE	83	punt	6	9	10–10
3	TEN	72	punt	7	14	10–10
4	CLE	81	fg	6	15	13–10
4	TEN	67	punt	3	-3	13–10
4	CLE	56	turnover	5	0	13–10
4	TEN	60	turnover	3	6	13–10
4	CLE	57	end half	2	8	13–10

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 24, 1:34 PM ET · before kickoff Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
Seed	a930f5bc · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 38 / margin.median -3 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means TEN 17.52 / CLE 20.5
Availability	injuries as of Oct 24, 1:32 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 24, 1:32 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873013:b338b1cd4440e028

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.