JAX @ DEN
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos, Sun, Sep 20. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET · final
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was JAX 13 – 20 DEN, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: JAX 13 – 20 DEN
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 20, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Jacksonville Jaguars · 13
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 189Forecast 238 (130–394) · in range | 6Forecast 7 (0–42) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 12.7% |
| Parker Washington | 0 | 0 | 7Forecast 5 (2–10) · in range | 98Forecast 64 (25–130) · in range | NoForecast 44.5% |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 0 | 65Forecast 26 (4–84) · in range | 2 | -3 | YesForecast 26.7% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 40Forecast 33 (7–78) · in range | NoForecast 24.5% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 28Forecast 33 (8–78) · in range | NoForecast 29.4% |
| Brenton Strange | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 17Forecast 31 (7–74) · in range | NoForecast 28.6% |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 11Forecast 7 (0–45) · in range | 1 | 2 | NoForecast 17.0% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 0 | 13Forecast 13 (1–56) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 15.5% |
| Quintin Morris | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | No |
| Josh Cameron | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 0Forecast 18 (0–52) · in range | NoForecast 19.3% |
| Austin TrammellNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 10 (0–38) | —Forecast 11.4% |
| Nick MullensNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 3 (0–26) | — | — | —Forecast 7.3% |
| Player lines added up | 189 | 95 | 17 | 189 |
22 other Jacksonville Jaguars players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Denver Broncos · 20
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 288Forecast 198 (109–324) · in range | 6Forecast 14 (1–58) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 16.6% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 0 | 0 | 8Forecast 2 (0–5) · outside range | 138Forecast 21 (0–58) · outside range | NoForecast 15.5% |
| Jonah Coleman | 0 | 39 | 3 | 19 | Yes |
| Nate Adkins | 0 | 6 | 3 | 32 | Yes |
| J.K. Dobbins | 0 | 36Forecast 54 (14–138) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 33.5% |
| Tyler Badie | 0 | 1 | 2 | 28 | No |
| Troy Franklin | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 27Forecast 15 (0–46) · in range | NoForecast 14.4% |
| Courtland Sutton | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 25Forecast 38 (11–85) · in range | NoForecast 25.9% |
| Evan Engram | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 17Forecast 30 (7–71) · in range | NoForecast 21.6% |
| Pat Bryant | 0 | 16 | 0Forecast 3 (1–7) · outside range | 0Forecast 33 (9–77) · outside range | NoForecast 19.9% |
| Adam Prentice | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | No |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 0Forecast 14 (0–45) · in range | NoForecast 12.0% |
| Adam TrautmanNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 11 (0–39) | —Forecast 9.4% |
| Jarrett StidhamNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 88 (38–170) | —Forecast 3 (0–31) | — | — | —Forecast 6.9% |
| RJ HarveyNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 23 (4–76) | —Forecast 3 (1–7) | —Forecast 28 (7–67) | —Forecast 36.8% |
| Player lines added up | 288 | 104 | 22 | 288 |
22 other Denver Broncos players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Jacksonville Jaguars45.6% to winPregame projection
20–24
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Denver Broncos51.3% to winDenver Broncos were the projected winner, 51.3% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
DEN +4
8 in 10 outcomes between -13 and +20
Expected total
44
8 in 10 outcomes between 27 and 61
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameJAX 20 — 24 DENwin chance JAX 45.6% · DEN 51.3%total 44 (27–61)margin +4
JAX
Likely TD scorers
Parker Washington 44.5%
Jakobi Meyers 29.4%
Brenton Strange 28.6%
Passing
Trevor Lawrence 238 pass yds (130–394)
Rushing leaders
Bhayshul Tuten 26 rush yds (4–84)
Chris Rodriguez Jr. 13 rush yds (1–56)
Receiving leaders
Parker Washington 5 rec · 64 yds
Jakobi Meyers 3 rec · 33 yds
Brenton Strange 3 rec · 31 yds
DEN
Likely TD scorers
J.K. Dobbins 33.5%
Courtland Sutton 25.9%
Evan Engram 21.6%
Passing
Bo Nix 198 pass yds (109–324)
Rushing leaders
J.K. Dobbins 54 rush yds (14–138)
Bo Nix 14 rush yds (1–58)
Receiving leaders
Courtland Sutton 4 rec · 38 yds
Evan Engram 3 rec · 30 yds
Pat Bryant 3 rec · 33 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
51.3%
DEN to win
Sportsbook win chance
57.2%
DEN to win, read from 5 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-5.9 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
44 vs 45.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 22 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | JAX | 5 (2–10) | 64 (25–130) | 44.5% | |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 4 (1–8) | 38 (11–85) | 25.9% | |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAX | 3 (1–7) | 33 (8–78) | 29.4% | |
| Brenton Strange | JAX | 3 (1–7) | 31 (7–74) | 28.6% | |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | 3 (1–6) | 33 (7–78) | 24.5% | |
| Evan Engram | DEN | 3 (1–7) | 30 (7–71) | 21.6% | |
| Pat Bryant | DEN | 3 (1–7) | 33 (9–77) | 19.9% | |
| Josh Cameron | JAX | 2 (0–5) | 18 (0–52) | 19.3% | |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | 2 (0–5) | 21 (0–58) | 15.5% | |
| Troy Franklin | DEN | 1 (0–4) | 15 (0–46) | 14.4% | |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | DEN | 1 (0–4) | 14 (0–45) | 12.0% | |
| Austin Trammell | JAX | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–38) | 11.4% | |
| Adam Trautman | DEN | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–39) | 9.4% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 21 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 44.5% Parker Washington · JAX
- 33.5% J.K. Dobbins · DEN
- 29.4% Jakobi Meyers · JAX
- 28.6% Brenton Strange · JAX
- 26.7% Bhayshul Tuten · JAX
- 25.9% Courtland Sutton · DEN
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 9404ae201f1fda3a
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
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