DET @ BUF
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills, Thu, Sep 17. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Thursday, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET · final
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was DET 31 – 41 BUF, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: DET 31 – 41 BUF
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 18, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Detroit Lions · 31
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 327Forecast 227 (128–368) · in range | 7Forecast 0 (0–17) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 4.9% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 0 | 0 | 9Forecast 7 (3–14) · in range | 142Forecast 76 (35–140) · outside range | YesForecast 51.1% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 0 | 52Forecast 81 (26–185) · in range | 6Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 61Forecast 32 (9–72) · in range | YesForecast 70.3% |
| Sam LaPorta | 0 | 0 | 6Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 52Forecast 44 (15–94) · in range | YesForecast 27.5% |
| Jameson Williams | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 33Forecast 49 (17–105) · in range | NoForecast 29.8% |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | No |
| Sione Vaki | 0 | 7 | 1 | 13 | No |
| Brock Wright | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 8 (0–34) · in range | NoForecast 8.9% |
| Justin JacksonNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 4 (0–35) | — | — | —Forecast 16.2% |
| Player lines added up | 327 | 66 | 26 | 327 |
24 other Detroit Lions players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Buffalo Bills · 41
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 248Forecast 239 (131–396) · in range | 69Forecast 22 (3–76) · in range | 0 | 0 | YesForecast 41.2% |
| James Cook | 0 | 135Forecast 61 (18–150) · in range | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 4Forecast 19 (0–53) · in range | YesForecast 52.5% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 0 | 0 | 7Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 95Forecast 47 (14–105) · in range | YesForecast 26.3% |
| Keon Coleman | 0 | 0 | 6Forecast 1 (0–4) · outside range | 63Forecast 13 (0–42) · outside range | NoForecast 12.6% |
| Josh Palmer | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 43Forecast 15 (0–49) · in range | YesForecast 14.7% |
| Khalil Shakir | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 5 (1–10) · in range | 38Forecast 49 (18–101) · in range | NoForecast 28.5% |
| Dawson Knox | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 5Forecast 15 (0–47) · in range | YesForecast 13.3% |
| Ray Davis | 0 | 0Forecast 2 (0–27) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 10.2% |
| DJ Moore | 0 | -1 | 0Forecast 5 (2–11) · outside range | 0Forecast 66 (27–133) · outside range | NoForecast 44.2% |
| Player lines added up | 248 | 203 | 20 | 248 |
27 other Buffalo Bills players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Thursday, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET · Highmark Stadium
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
Detroit Lions34.9% to winPregame projection
25–29
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Buffalo Bills62.4% to winBuffalo Bills were the projected winner, 62.4% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
BUF +4
8 in 10 outcomes between -13 and +20
Expected total
54
8 in 10 outcomes between 37 and 71
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameDET 25 — 29 BUFwin chance DET 34.9% · BUF 62.4%total 54 (37–71)margin +4
DET
Likely TD scorers
Jahmyr Gibbs 70.3%
Amon-Ra St. Brown 51.1%
Jameson Williams 29.8%
Passing
Jared Goff 227 pass yds (128–368)
Rushing leaders
Jahmyr Gibbs 81 rush yds (26–185)
Justin Jackson 4 rush yds (0–35)
Receiving leaders
Amon-Ra St. Brown 7 rec · 76 yds
Jameson Williams 4 rec · 49 yds
Sam LaPorta 4 rec · 44 yds
BUF
Likely TD scorers
James Cook 52.5%
DJ Moore 44.2%
Josh Allen 41.2%
Passing
Josh Allen 239 pass yds (131–396)
Rushing leaders
James Cook 61 rush yds (18–150)
Josh Allen 22 rush yds (3–76)
Receiving leaders
DJ Moore 5 rec · 66 yds
Khalil Shakir 5 rec · 49 yds
Dalton Kincaid 4 rec · 47 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
62.4%
BUF to win
Sportsbook win chance
68.4%
BUF to win, read from 7 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-6 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
54 vs 54.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 16 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 7 (3–14) | 76 (35–140) | 51.1% | |
| DJ Moore | BUF | 5 (2–11) | 66 (27–133) | 44.2% | |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | 5 (1–10) | 49 (18–101) | 28.5% | |
| Jameson Williams | DET | 4 (1–8) | 49 (17–105) | 29.8% | |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | 4 (1–9) | 44 (15–94) | 27.5% | |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 4 (1–8) | 47 (14–105) | 26.3% | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 3 (1–7) | 32 (9–72) | 70.3% | |
| James Cook | BUF | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–53) | 52.5% | |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–47) | 13.3% | |
| Josh Palmer | BUF | 1 (0–4) | 15 (0–49) | 14.7% | |
| Keon Coleman | BUF | 1 (0–4) | 13 (0–42) | 12.6% | |
| Brock Wright | DET | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–34) | 8.9% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 16 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 70.3% Jahmyr Gibbs · DET
- 52.5% James Cook · BUF
- 51.1% Amon-Ra St. Brown · DET
- 44.2% DJ Moore · BUF
- 41.2% Josh Allen · BUF
- 29.8% Jameson Williams · DET
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- d4b1619e494afb43
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
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- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET