CLE @ JAX
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sun, Sep 13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · final
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was CLE 10 – 34 JAX, from the Week 1 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: CLE 10 – 34 JAX
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 14, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Cleveland Browns · 10
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 205 | 38Forecast 2 (0–22) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 10.5% |
| Denzel Boston | 0 | 0 | 2 | 59 | Yes |
| KC Concepcion | 0 | 15 | 4 | 43 | No |
| Quinshon Judkins | 0 | 33Forecast 37 (12–75) · in range | 2Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 17Forecast 14 (0–46) · in range | NoForecast 24.6% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 26Forecast 31 (5–78) · in range | NoForecast 11.7% |
| Raheim Sanders | 0 | 1Forecast 11 (0–37) · in range | 3 | 25 | NoForecast 14.9% |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 4 (1–7) · in range | 21Forecast 38 (8–87) · in range | NoForecast 44.3% |
| Blake Whiteheart | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | No |
| Dylan Sampson | 0 | 0Forecast 11 (0–36) · in range | 0Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 0Forecast 13 (0–46) · in range | NoForecast 10.0% |
| Isaiah BondNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 8 (0–41) | — |
| Shedeur SandersNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 105 (14–235) | —Forecast 4 (0–28) | — | — | —Forecast 9.2% |
| Player lines added up | 205 | 87 | 16 | 205 |
22 other Cleveland Browns players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Jacksonville Jaguars · 34
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 245Forecast 172 (58–294) · in range | 3Forecast 12 (0–42) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 32.3% |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 0 | 66Forecast 12 (0–42) · outside range | 1 | 22 | NoForecast 23.6% |
| Parker Washington | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 4 (1–7) · in range | 83Forecast 40 (7–92) · in range | YesForecast 28.6% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 0 | 2 | 2Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 40Forecast 30 (4–76) · in range | YesForecast 15.2% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 40Forecast 23 (0–65) · in range | NoForecast 20.8% |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 32 | 1 | 0 | No |
| Brenton Strange | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 23Forecast 22 (0–63) · in range | YesForecast 18.3% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Josh Cameron | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | Yes |
| Travis Hunter | 0 | 3 | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 8Forecast 23 (0–64) · in range | NoForecast 33.5% |
| Nate Boerkircher | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | No |
| Quintin Morris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 13.2% |
| Nick Mullens | 0 | -3Forecast 3 (0–22) · outside range | 0 | 0 | No |
| Player lines added up | 245 | 126 | 18 | 245 |
21 other Jacksonville Jaguars players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 1 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · EverBank Stadium
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns32.1% to winPregame projection
19–27
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Jacksonville Jaguars65.4% to winJacksonville Jaguars were the projected winner, 65.4% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
JAX +8
8 in 10 outcomes between -9 and +26
Expected total
46
8 in 10 outcomes between 29 and 62
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameCLE 19 — 27 JAXwin chance CLE 32.1% · JAX 65.4%total 46 (29–62)margin +8
CLE
Likely TD scorers
Harold Fannin Jr. 44.3%
Quinshon Judkins 24.6%
Raheim Sanders 14.9%
Passing
Shedeur Sanders 105 pass yds (14–235)
Rushing leaders
Quinshon Judkins 37 rush yds (12–75)
Raheim Sanders 11 rush yds (0–37)
Receiving leaders
Harold Fannin Jr. 4 rec · 38 yds
Jerry Jeudy 3 rec · 31 yds
Quinshon Judkins 2 rec · 14 yds
JAX
Likely TD scorers
Travis Hunter 33.5%
Trevor Lawrence 32.3%
Parker Washington 28.6%
Passing
Trevor Lawrence 172 pass yds (58–294)
Rushing leaders
Trevor Lawrence 12 rush yds (0–42)
Bhayshul Tuten 12 rush yds (0–42)
Receiving leaders
Parker Washington 4 rec · 40 yds
Jakobi Meyers 3 rec · 30 yds
Travis Hunter 2 rec · 23 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
65.4%
JAX to win
Sportsbook win chance
78.4%
JAX to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-13 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
46 vs 40
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 17 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | projected active | 4 (1–7) | 38 (8–87) | 44.3% |
| Parker Washington | JAX | projected active | 4 (1–7) | 40 (7–92) | 28.6% |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAX | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 30 (4–76) | 15.2% |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 31 (5–78) | 11.7% |
| Travis Hunter | JAX | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 23 (0–64) | 33.5% |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | projected active | 2 (0–4) | 14 (0–46) | 24.6% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 23 (0–65) | 20.8% |
| Brenton Strange | JAX | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 22 (0–63) | 18.3% |
| Dylan Sampson | CLE | projected active | 1 (0–4) | 13 (0–46) | 10.0% |
| Isaiah Bond | CLE | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–41) | — |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 15 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 44.3% Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE
- 33.5% Travis Hunter · JAX
- 32.3% Trevor Lawrence · JAX
- 28.6% Parker Washington · JAX
- 24.6% Quinshon Judkins · CLE
- 23.6% Bhayshul Tuten · JAX
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- cb7fe5830052a61e
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET