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Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · started

Cleveland BrownsatJacksonville JaguarsEXPERIMENTAL

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Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was CLE 10 – 34 JAX, from the Week 1 record.

Simulation story

5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

CLE @ JAX

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars, 2026-09-13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

CLE 19 — 27 JAX

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

CLE 32.1% · JAX 65.4%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.5%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 29 and 62

JAX winning margin

a minus means CLE wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -9 and 26

Model details

From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to beat the market is made. Generated 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

CLE 19 — 27 JAXwin chance CLE 32.1% · JAX 65.4%total 46 (29–62)margin +8

CLE

Likely TD scorers

Harold Fannin Jr. 44.3%

Quinshon Judkins 24.6%

Raheim Sanders 14.9%

Passing

Shedeur Sanders 105 pass yds (14–235)

Rushing leaders

Quinshon Judkins 37 rush yds (12–75)

Raheim Sanders 11 rush yds (0–37)

Receiving leaders

Harold Fannin Jr. 4 rec · 38 yds

Jerry Jeudy 3 rec · 31 yds

Quinshon Judkins 2 rec · 14 yds

JAX

Likely TD scorers

Travis Hunter 33.5%

Trevor Lawrence 32.3%

Parker Washington 28.6%

Passing

Trevor Lawrence 172 pass yds (58–294)

Rushing leaders

Trevor Lawrence 12 rush yds (0–42)

Bhayshul Tuten 12 rush yds (0–42)

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. 0.2 rec · 2 yds/g at WSH

Quinn Ewers 0.1 rec · -0.9 yds/g at MIA

Receiving leaders

Parker Washington 4 rec · 40 yds

Jakobi Meyers 3 rec · 30 yds

Travis Hunter 2 rec · 23 yds

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Cleveland Browns	7	19	30
Jacksonville Jaguars	15	27	39

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

Our win chance

65.4%

JAX to win

Sportsbook win chance

78.4%

JAX to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed

Difference

-13 pp

ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation

Total points: ours vs sportsbooks

46 vs 40

our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line

The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.

Prices captured 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z — before kickoff.

Player projections · 17 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.

Player	Team	Availability	Receptions (10th–90th)	Rec yards (10th–90th)	TD chance
Harold Fannin Jr.	CLE	projected active	4 (1–7)	38 (8–87)	44.3%
Parker Washington	JAX	projected active	4 (1–7)	40 (7–92)	28.6%
Jakobi Meyers	JAX	projected active	3 (1–6)	30 (4–76)	15.2%
Jerry Jeudy	CLE	projected active	3 (1–6)	31 (5–78)	11.7%
Travis Hunter	JAX	projected active	2 (0–5)	23 (0–64)	33.5%
Quinshon Judkins	CLE	projected active	2 (0–4)	14 (0–46)	24.6%
Brian Thomas Jr.	JAX	projected active	2 (0–5)	23 (0–65)	20.8%
Brenton Strange	JAX	projected active	2 (0–5)	22 (0–63)	18.3%
Dylan Sampson	CLE	projected active	1 (0–4)	13 (0–46)	10.0%
Isaiah Bond	CLE	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	8 (0–41)	—

New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above

Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.

Player	Team	Availability	Last club	Per game (prior club)
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB	JAX	active uncertain	WSH · 15g	0.2 rec · 2 yds · 41.2 rush yds
Quinn Ewers QB	JAX	active uncertain	MIA · 7g	0.1 rec · -0.9 yds · 2.6 rush yds · 127.9 pass yds

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 15 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

44.3% Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE
33.5% Travis Hunter · JAX
32.3% Trevor Lawrence · JAX
28.6% Parker Washington · JAX
24.6% Quinshon Judkins · CLE
23.6% Bhayshul Tuten · JAX

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
simulations: 10,000
input hash: cb7fe5830052a61e
generated: 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z
kickoff: 2026-09-13T17:00Z
state: SETTLED

Player-family model provenance (3 published)

Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.