NBA Predicted Player Statistics · Sat, Oct 24
NBA forecasts are graded after every game. The favoured-side record is published as counts on NBA results; it is not judged before 300 graded games.
Past slate · Sat, Oct 24. Every Official Forecast figure here was frozen before that day’s tip-offs and is shown exactly as frozen, never updated after a game. Today’s board
Forecast vs. Actual
Forecast: the Official Forecast, frozen before tip-off and never changed. Actual: the final box score (ESPN), after the official final. A dash means did not play — never a zero.
Every rostered player without a projection is listed as “Projection unavailable” with the reason the Official Forecast recorded.
173 of 173 players · order: expected minutes
· 103 without a projection| Player | Team | Min | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | CLE | 39.2 | 33 | 18.3 | 12 | 4.8 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Donovan Mitchell | CLE | 38.6 | 35 | 29.1 | 22 | 5.1 | 5 | 3.3 | 4 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Evan Mobley | CLE | 38.6 | 35 | 17.1 | 20 | 7.8 | 10 | 4.2 | 4 | 1.3 | 2 |
| Victor Wembanyama | SA | 36.7 | 29 | 24.7 | 23 | 8.7 | 7 | 2.5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Jamal Murray | DEN | 36.7 | 43 | 22 | 42 | 4.5 | 3 | 5.4 | 6 | 2.2 | 8 |
| Devin Vassell | SA | 34.5 | 32 | 12.2 | 11 | 5.6 | 4 | 2.7 | 6 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Nikola Jokic | DEN | 34.5 | 44 | 23.1 | 35 | 11.9 | 15 | 8.2 | 10 | 0.9 | 3 |
| De'Aaron Fox | SA | 33.1 | 28 | 11.6 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 5.9 | 9 | 1.2 | 2 |
| Amen Thompson | HOU | 32.5 | 39 | 16.6 | 17 | 5.6 | 11 | 4.4 | 6 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Jarrett Allen | CLE | 32.4 | 27 | 15 | 21 | 7 | 8 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Stephon Castle | SA | 31.5 | 28 | 15.1 | 19 | 4.9 | 4 | 5.3 | 8 | 1.1 | 3 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | HOU | 30.8 | 33 | 13.4 | 14 | 5.7 | 5 | 1.2 | 3 | 2.3 | 2 |
| Peyton Watson | CLE | 30.7 | 31 | 14.2 | 11 | 4.7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Julian Champagnie | SA | 30.6 | 28 | 11.4 | 12 | 5.3 | 5 | 1.6 | 3 | 2.7 | 3 |
| P.J. Washington | DAL | 30.1 | 36 | 13.3 | 12 | 8.8 | 4 | 0.3 | 2 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Christian Braun | DEN | 30.1 | 40 | 8.4 | 15 | 3.4 | 8 | 1.4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Kevin Durant | HOU | 29.3 | 37 | 20.7 | 22 | 4.5 | 4 | 3.6 | 2 | 1.7 | 3 |
| Tyrese Maxey | PHI | 28.7 | 36 | 17 | 26 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1.7 | 4 |
| Devin Booker | PHX | 28.7 | 36 | 18.1 | 43 | 3.1 | 7 | 4.4 | 7 | 0.8 | 2 |
| Josh Giddey | CHI | 28.6 | 30 | 8.3 | 9 | 7.1 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Santi Aldama · Day-To-Day | DAL | 28.6 | — | 14 | — | 6.7 | — | 3 | — | 1.6 | — |
| Brandin Podziemski | GS | 28.6 | DNP | 17.7 | — | 3.7 | — | 2 | — | 2.3 | — |
| Naji Marshall | DAL | 28.5 | 21 | 13.7 | 10 | 3.8 | 4 | 2.9 | 5 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Max Christie | DAL | 27.8 | 26 | 9.9 | 5 | 2.6 | 5 | 1.6 | 1 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Stephen Curry | GS | 27.7 | — | 20.1 | — | 3.2 | — | 3.3 | — | 3.8 | — |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | ATL | 27.6 | 32 | 13.7 | 18 | 1.8 | 5 | 1.9 | 4 | 2.7 | 4 |
| LeBron James · Day-To-Day | PHI | 27.3 | — | 16.4 | — | 4.7 | — | 5.2 | — | 1.2 | — |
| Alperen Sengun | HOU | 27.2 | 33 | 13.6 | 17 | 7.7 | 10 | 3.8 | 7 | 0.1 | 1 |
| Draymond Green | GS | 27.2 | DNP | 6.3 | — | 4.5 | — | 6.4 | — | 1.1 | — |
| Jalen Johnson | ATL | 27 | 38 | 14.2 | 26 | 6.5 | 9 | 3.7 | 16 | 1.2 | 2 |
| Matas Buzelis | CHI | 27 | 35 | 14.5 | 21 | 7.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 2 |
| Aaron Gordon | DEN | 26.8 | 37 | 11.3 | 7 | 4.9 | 5 | 3.3 | 4 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Gui Santos | GS | 26.8 | 23 | 11.8 | 7 | 5.1 | 4 | 3.2 | 3 | 1.1 | 1 |
| Moussa Cisse | DAL | 26.7 | 7 | 10.8 | 4 | 12.6 | 4 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VJ Edgecombe | PHI | 26.6 | 30 | 9.9 | 17 | 4.5 | 13 | 2.4 | 2 | 1.5 | 5 |
| Davion Mitchell | MIA | 26.2 | 37 | 10.3 | 22 | 2.3 | 1 | 4.6 | 10 | 1.4 | 3 |
| Marcus Smart | HOU | 26.2 | DNP | 9.7 | — | 2.7 | — | 3.9 | — | 1.3 | — |
| Bam Adebayo | MIA | 26.1 | 39 | 13.7 | 20 | 8.4 | 8 | 3.3 | 4 | 1.2 | 2 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | DAL | 26.1 | 15 | 11.6 | 3 | 2.2 | 2 | 5.3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Leonard Miller | CHI | 26 | 21 | 13.5 | 7 | 6.4 | 4 | 1.4 | 0 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Dylan Harper | SA | 26 | 28 | 12.9 | 22 | 5.6 | 5 | 2.7 | 2 | 1.2 | 3 |
| DeMar DeRozan | DEN | 26 | 24 | 16.6 | 12 | 2.4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Miller | CHA | 25.8 | 36 | 14.8 | 34 | 3 | 8 | 2.2 | 4 | 2.5 | 3 |
| Kon Knueppel · Day-To-Day | CHA | 25.3 | — | 10.2 | — | 3.7 | — | 2 | — | 1.5 | — |
| Julius Randle | BKN | 25.2 | 35 | 11.4 | 23 | 5.6 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0.6 | 2 |
| Rayan Rupert | PHI | 25.2 | DNP | 12.3 | — | 5.8 | — | 3.1 | — | 1 | — |
| Onyeka Okongwu | ATL | 25.2 | 26 | 9 | 8 | 4.9 | 6 | 1.3 | 2 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Dillon Brooks | PHX | 25 | 34 | 15.1 | 15 | 3.4 | 2 | 1.4 | 5 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Jaylen Brown | PHI | 24.8 | 35 | 17.9 | 27 | 3.7 | 3 | 2.1 | 5 | 1.7 | 3 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | BKN | 24.7 | 33 | 18.1 | 28 | 5.3 | 9 | 2.2 | 1 | 2.5 | 4 |
| Jalen Green | PHX | 24.7 | 26 | 15 | 12 | 3.2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Isaac Okoro | CHI | 24.5 | 14 | 9.3 | 0 | 2.6 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Andrew Wiggins | MIA | 24.2 | 18 | 11.3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Pelle Larsson | MIA | 24.2 | 36 | 10.9 | 15 | 3.3 | 7 | 2.9 | 4 | 0.5 | 1 |
| CJ McCollum | ATL | 24.2 | 30 | 14.5 | 17 | 2.4 | 2 | 2.2 | 1 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Luke Kennard · Day-To-Day | PHX | 24.2 | 18 | 8.3 | 11 | 2.5 | 4 | 1.6 | 1 | 1.2 | 3 |
| Joel Embiid | PHI | 23.9 | 36 | 16.8 | 28 | 5.1 | 11 | 3.8 | 10 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Tre Jones | CHI | 23.9 | 18 | 17.7 | 10 | 3.7 | 2 | 4.5 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Will Riley | WSH | 23.9 | 5 | 13.2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2.4 | 0 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIA | 23.5 | 25 | 22 | 14 | 7.7 | 6 | 4.3 | 3 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Naz Reid | CHA | 23.1 | 37 | 10.8 | 23 | 6.1 | 9 | 1.7 | 0 | 1.6 | 5 |
| Tari Eason | HOU | 22.9 | 31 | 9.6 | 19 | 4.7 | 3 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Patrick Williams | CHI | 22.9 | — | 6.5 | — | 3.3 | — | 1.9 | — | 1.1 | — |
| Anthony Davis | WSH | 22.9 | 31 | 14.1 | 19 | 7.8 | 6 | 1.9 | 4 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Dyson Daniels | ATL | 22.8 | 29 | 6.6 | 18 | 5.4 | 8 | 4.2 | 3 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Anthony Gill | WSH | 22.7 | DNP | 8.7 | — | 2.7 | — | 1.4 | — | 0.5 | — |
| Ryan Nembhard | DEN | 22.6 | DNP | 6.9 | — | 3.2 | — | 6.1 | — | 0.5 | — |
| De'Anthony Melton | GS | 22.3 | 27 | 7.7 | 25 | 3.5 | 5 | 2.8 | 5 | 1.2 | 4 |
| Brandon Williams | GS | 22.3 | 24 | 13.7 | 20 | 2.3 | 3 | 4.5 | 5 | 0.2 | 2 |
| Moussa Diabate | CHA | 21.8 | 22 | 4.4 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 1.7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Merrill | CLE | 21.8 | 21 | 8.8 | 7 | 0.9 | 2 | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Drake Powell | BKN | 21.6 | DNP | 6.7 | — | 1.6 | — | 0.9 | — | 0.9 | — |
| Trey Murphy III | NO | 21.6 | 37 | 10 | 26 | 3.7 | 6 | 1.7 | 4 | 1.3 | 4 |
| Miles Bridges | PHX | 21.6 | 33 | 12.5 | 16 | 4.1 | 7 | 1.9 | 3 | 1.4 | 2 |
| Ben Saraf | BKN | 21.5 | DNP | 8.8 | — | 2.8 | — | 3 | — | 0.5 | — |
| Kyshawn George | WSH | 21.2 | 36 | 10.6 | 22 | 3.6 | 9 | 3.1 | 5 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Deandre Ayton | WSH | 20.9 | 16 | 7.1 | 6 | 6.9 | 5 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bub Carrington | WSH | 20.5 | 21 | 10.3 | 9 | 1.3 | 2 | 3.9 | 1 | 2.1 | 3 |
| Anfernee Simons | PHI | 20.3 | 20 | 10.4 | 4 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1 |
| AJ Green | MIL | 20.2 | 19 | 9.5 | 11 | 2.5 | 3 | 1.4 | 0 | 2.7 | 3 |
| Keshon Gilbert | ATL | 20 | — | 7.9 | — | 3.1 | — | 1.8 | — | 1 | — |
| Alex Sarr | WSH | 20 | 23 | 11.5 | 10 | 5.3 | 2 | 1.9 | 3 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Fears | NO | 20 | 23 | 14.1 | 10 | 2.4 | 6 | 2.9 | 2 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Tyler Herro | MIL | 19.9 | 31 | 10.8 | 13 | 2.5 | 6 | 3.1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Saddiq Bey | NO | 19.9 | 25 | 12.3 | 14 | 2.5 | 4 | 1.1 | 3 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Julian Reese | NO | 19.9 | DNP | 6.5 | — | 5.8 | — | 1.2 | — | 0 | — |
| Bobby Portis | MIA | 19.7 | 27 | 10.7 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 1.2 | 0 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Marvin Bagley III | DEN | 19.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1.4 | 0 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Al Horford | GS | 19.7 | — | 8.6 | — | 2.7 | — | 1.4 | — | 1.8 | — |
| Ousmane Dieng | MIL | 19.6 | DNP | 8.3 | — | 3.6 | — | 3.4 | — | 0.5 | — |
| Jordan Hawkins | CHI | 19.6 | DNP | 9.8 | — | 2.4 | — | 1.5 | — | 1.6 | — |
| Norman Powell | CHI | 19.5 | 33 | 12.8 | 18 | 1.8 | 2 | 0.9 | 3 | 1.4 | 3 |
| Gary Payton II | GS | 19.5 | 17 | 7.9 | 2 | 3.5 | 1 | 1.2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Daniel Gafford | DAL | 19.3 | 23 | 10.1 | 12 | 5.4 | 9 | 0.7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Egor Demin | BKN | 19.1 | 31 | 7.6 | 22 | 2.3 | 4 | 2.5 | 6 | 1.8 | 5 |
| Ryan Rollins | MIL | 19.1 | 25 | 12.5 | 15 | 2.1 | 4 | 3.3 | 4 | 1.3 | 2 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | MIA | 19 | 21 | 8.2 | 5 | 2.3 | 0 | 0.9 | 0 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Royce O'Neale | CHA | 19 | 11 | 6.8 | 0 | 4.2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jalen Smith | CHI | 18.6 | 24 | 8.6 | 14 | 5.6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 2 |
| Zion Williamson | NO | 18.5 | 33 | 11.3 | 17 | 3.1 | 1 | 1.7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Showing the first 100 of 173 players; the full board loads in your browser.
Technical detailsFreeze times, receipts and method · 8 games
Model: nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1. Source: v0.1 roster-gated player simulation (nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1) — medians of 10000 simulated games. PRA, P+R and P+A: sum over the same simulated draws (v0 engine; components independent within a player) — the median of each simulated game’s sum, so it need not equal the sum of the separate medians. Players with at least 10 expected minutes who are not ruled out. The default order is expected minutes; a column sort is the reader’s own. Game status is read-only, from the schedule and finals record (Started: tipped off, no final recorded yet); it never changes a frozen figure. Forecast vs. Actual: PRA, P+R and P+A actuals add up the actual points, rebounds and assists; “awaiting final” means the game has no official final yet; “Played, no projection” and “Projection unavailable” mark players without an Official Forecast projection — their actuals are shown, no forecast is invented. Forecast and Actual are compared per player only.
- Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets: tip-off Oct 24, 6:00 PM ET · frozen Oct 24, 9:16 AM ET · receipt 58fb49a0707dElo-derived game-winner estimate: MIA 34% · CHA 66% · Final
- Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers: tip-off Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET · frozen Oct 24, 9:16 AM ET · receipt cab04519a8b1Elo-derived game-winner estimate: BKN 15% · CLE 85% · Final
- Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers: tip-off Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET · frozen Oct 24, 9:16 AM ET · receipt 46bd51781e6bElo-derived game-winner estimate: MIL 27% · PHI 73% · Final
- Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls: tip-off Oct 24, 8:00 PM ET · frozen Oct 24, 9:16 AM ET · receipt f12eec5ff5f2Elo-derived game-winner estimate: WSH 28% · CHI 72% · Final
- San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks: tip-off Oct 24, 8:00 PM ET · frozen Oct 24, 9:16 AM ET · receipt b12877da7e39Elo-derived game-winner estimate: SA 74% · DAL 26% · Final
- Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks: tip-off Oct 24, 8:30 PM ET · frozen Oct 24, 9:16 AM ET · receipt c997f24d7caeElo-derived game-winner estimate: HOU 43% · ATL 57% · Final
- New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets: tip-off Oct 24, 9:00 PM ET · frozen Oct 24, 9:16 AM ET · receipt e522c382f15cElo-derived game-winner estimate: NO 19% · DEN 81% · Final
- Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns: tip-off Oct 24, 10:00 PM ET · frozen Oct 24, 9:16 AM ET · receipt 6f74000058f6Elo-derived game-winner estimate: GS 34% · PHX 66% · Final
Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation.
- Not shown: this model's team score is a sum of player simulations that ignores the opponent, can contradict the Elo side, and has not met its historical checks.
- Medians only: the model's ranges have not yet shown reliable coverage.
- No sportsbook prices, lines, edges, picks or rankings: there is no authorized NBA price, and these figures are not betting recommendations.